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Ok maybe this is a foolish question (population)
...considering so few of us are able to play, but, assuming everyone who is trying to play right now gets in and plays, what do you think the game's population will be 2-3 weeks from now and over the long turn?
Obviously our means are limited, but what do you think the level of interest is in this game? Are there 15,000 people? 20,000?
As for why I want to know this - there's games that are 4-5 years old and still have sub bases of over 100,000 people (not talking about WoW). If the game starts with a small community, with the limited advertising and marketting this game is going to get it might just get smaller and smaller and go downhill from there...Worth knowing ahead of time, no?
Played:
EQ1, AO, WoW, AoC
Best thread ever:
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/2680105/thread/225957#2680105
Comments
I believe 50k people will play within the first month. Then it will drop down to 20k and stay around there.
From then it will either just keep getting smaller or if the game is successful it may rise slightly. I don't expect anything like 100k+ subs EVER in this game. I can see this game becoming quite repetitive quickly and not keeping people’s attention long enough to pay for multiple months subscriptions.
That would be quite a feat, if they can realise that within a month. Since at the moment, they can't handle more than about 15k people.
No hating, it's just how it is. I think Aventurine will slowly let more people create accounts, but at the moment it's at a stop after 15k pre-orders got in. And I really doubt they will suddenly let everyone in, this will take longer than a month, since they already tried to solve this exact issue last month.
If the game has 20K subs it would have an income a month of 300.000$ a month. This is not pure profit treu, but seems to be more then enough to keep 1-3 servers running, expand the development team and pay off debt. If Tasos from there plays it right he could make a great game. This is something they should have aimed for from the beginning. Have a decent game with something to do with a small player base and grow from there. This is how EvE is what it is now.
My guess, you'll be lucky if this comes off as well as AO's launch - IE stabilizes around 10k subs after three months. It may well be lower since I am not sure based on what has happened so far that DF can handle more than say 1k concurrent users.
i think this game will do great eventually .. just need some advertisment and work out all the kinks / bugs /server issues ..... because if you think about it WOW is a very very repetitive game and it holds over 50% of the MMORPG population... either way i think this game is soo diffrent and so out of the box that people will find it very interesting and i think it will grow over time ... i hope
completely agree. this game is gonna be a slow burner. i think like EVE its population base should gradually increase over time once the game gets a bit of polish and word of mouth gets round
If someone is talking in general chat in a language you dont understand, chances are they're not talking to you. So chill out and stop bitching about it!
how can you see that? i played for about 10 days in beta, and i see great potential, hell even if only 50% of the forum acounts get a acount this game will start with 150.000 players. And if they can keep 100.000 for a few months and ad extra content and develope from there it can get more subs then eve in the long run.
That would be quite a feat, if they can realise that within a month. Since at the moment, they can't handle more than about 15k people.
No hating, it's just how it is. I think Aventurine will slowly let more people create accounts, but at the moment it's at a stop after 15k pre-orders got in. And I really doubt they will suddenly let everyone in, this will take longer than a month, since they already tried to solve this exact issue last month.
Damn really? That sucks. If they had enought servers then i belive 50k would be very possible. Oh well i guess it will be a month or so before i can play
(i never got a pre-order)
around 1500 at most
If they can cram 10k peeps on one server (thats with less NPC and mobs in order to take up player sub's). and if you limit the release to 20k peeps, that means 10k peeps are in Queing (most likely less so say a few K in queing). most of those peeps are going to be pissed and quit. Now if they cant do the 10k per server then they are in a world of hurt because they will have more people in queing then people in the game= more QQing and dropping the game.....we shall see how it goes.
Velika: City of Wheels: Among the mortal races, the humans were the only one that never built cities or great empires; a curse laid upon them by their creator, Gidd, forced them to wander as nomads for twenty centuries...
If the game has 20K subs it would have an income a month of 300.000$ a month. This is not pure profit treu, but seems to be more then enough to keep 1-3 servers running, expand the development team and pay off debt. If Tasos from there plays it right he could make a great game. This is something they should have aimed for from the beginning. Have a decent game with something to do with a small player base and grow from there. This is how EvE is what it is now.
It cost more than $100k for leasing the servers and providing the bandwidth... how do they pay their employees...? Let alone the $12 million it cost to make this POS..?
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Assuming they can handle this amoutn of people, id imagine at least 50k in the first month. However im not sure if they will be able to handle that much within a month.
$12 million?
Wow...I am even more surprised they didn't prepare for a bigger launch.
Played:
EQ1, AO, WoW, AoC
Best thread ever:
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/2680105/thread/225957#2680105
http://www.mmogchart.com/charts/
Take a look at these charts. Even 50,000 at launch isn't anything impressive because look at how fast those games fall if they're not WoW.
Played:
EQ1, AO, WoW, AoC
Best thread ever:
http://www.mmorpg.com/discussion2.cfm/post/2680105/thread/225957#2680105
As others have said, this isn't a matter of liking/hating DF or not. They have totally failed the technical aspects of launch and appear to be dramatically undercapitalized: which in plain english means that they were unable to process a very very limited number of subscriptions properly in a timely fashion and were unable to handle the hardware, connection and concurrancy demands of that tiny launch. Those are NOT the characteristics of a company that is going to explode onto the market. Their tech people are clearly either incompetent, underfunded or both. Which means they will be struggling to keep the current server working right and will have a horrid time trying to bring more shards online. It will be months before they have any kind of significant playerbase - and thats assuming the players stick around waiting and assuming the company doesn't fold.