IMO, once a decline in subs starts to happen we'll see an end to annoucements by Blizzard as it would serve no positive purpose to publish them. Only worth stating them when the news is good and upbeat, and silence will be our best indicator that things have gone into decline.
Will that happen this year or next? Has to happen one day, so eventually the prediction will come true, just a matter of when. (of course, same is true with everything)
I still see Blizzard actively adding new content and features which the core player base really seems to enjoy. I also see new games like Aion that might have a chance to pull some subs away.
I think you might see an increase in the number of players who leave for a while and come back for a few months when major content patches are released.
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
I agree with the OP that WoW is and has been in a state of decline. It is to be expected with ANY MMO for this to happen eventually. With the wide range of new MMO's out it is impossible for this not to be the case. Yes, WoW does cater to the "simpleton players", meaning players that need something easy to play, and this is the only thing that has kept WoW alive as longas it has. They learned very early that there is a HUGE market of new players, or players that cant handle difficult gaming and capitalized on it.
- Case: Thermaltake Kandalf Black Chassis - CPU: AMD Phenom II X4 955 Black Edition 3.2GHz (OC'd 4.2GHz on Water Cooling) - Memory: Mushkin 8Gb (4x 2Gb) DDR3 1600Mhz - HDD: Dual Western Digital Caviar Black 1TB 7200 RPM - GFX: (2) XFX Radeon HD 5870 in CrossFire - New upgrade!
"I like wow, I like aion and I like AoC all for different reasons.....the later cause i get to see boobs, but still its a reason!!" - Sawlstone
I'm not a WoW hater and played it for a long time, probably will eventually resub but Zorn you really make the WoW forums here almost unreadable. Take a pause for the cause dude, give it a rest. Blizzard doesn't need a tank on the forums defending them, their sub numbers speak for themselves, you don't have too. Haters and trolls suck but fanboys suck just as much.
I'm not a WoW hater and played it for a long time, probably will eventually resub but Zorn you really make the WoW forums here almost unreadable. Take a pause for the cause dude, give it a rest. Blizzard doesn't need a tank on the forums defending them, their sub numbers speak for themselves, you don't have too. Haters and trolls suck but fanboys suck just as much.
My posts are always filled with decent arguments and why things happen or can be traced in general trends.
I post because I think people should realise the standards in polishment and overall game design are set this high.
I think people have ENOUGH of the launches we had to endure for the last 3 years.
And DF, Spellborn etc were the latest. Any suggestion why I have to stop in viewing this "quality" of the latest offerings ???
This is news to me. You dislike Spellborn now?
I'm shocked that game is actually pretty good. Tight combat, friendly quests, good pvp and pleasant graphics.
It's a much better product than AoC, WAR and Lotro imo.
Are you hating on every game thats not WoW now?
Adding that pitiful game Df in the same sentence as TCoS is an insult imo.
Originally posted by LogothX If such a thing would happen, do you actually think they would announce it?Let's look at Warhammer, and how many people THAT game lost, do you actually see them openly stating how badly their crappy little game is doing?
Of course not. You play up your strengths; not your weaknesses. Sometimes financial and quarterly reports tell the details, though veiled.
I'm not a WoW hater and played it for a long time, probably will eventually resub but Zorn you really make the WoW forums here almost unreadable. Take a pause for the cause dude, give it a rest. Blizzard doesn't need a tank on the forums defending them, their sub numbers speak for themselves, you don't have too. Haters and trolls suck but fanboys suck just as much.
My posts are always filled with decent arguments and why things happen or can be traced in general trends.
I post because I think people should realise the standards in polishment and overall game design are set this high.
I think people have ENOUGH of the launches we had to endure for the last 3 years.
And DF, Spellborn etc were the latest. Any suggestion why I have to stop in viewing this "quality" of the latest offerings ???
Its not exactly what you post because you usually argue pretty good and try to back up your claims. Its just how you post it gets very irritating. Your posts always seem emotionally charged, you underline words constantly, capslock/bold and other silly things trying to try and put emphasis on certain things when you don't need too. Also excessively use of smileys which just irritates the hell out of people. When I read your posts its like I am reading a 13 year old girl drama play. If you would type normally people would be a lot more likely to take your arguments seriously instead of getting irritated and blowing you off as a fanboy.
i ve just noticed in another forum thread that aion has reached 3.5 million subs already in the east how accurate that is i m not sure but if it is aion must already be biting into blizzards subsciber numbers in the east in quite a big way . if that is emulated in the west the warcraft could being seeing an exodus within months . having not played it myself i cant comment on the game itself . from what people have told me is that its pretty impressive and not just another korean grinder . i dont think aion will kill warcraft but if it may offer some real competition to it at last . warcraft really only owes its popularity now because other mmos have so far failed to offer a mass appeal gaming experiance . this looks like it really could be set to change finaly this year with aion . also if the new star wars mmo takes off next year this will bite further into the warcraft subs . i think people who play wow like me will return to maintain thier characters for the odd month . but we also know once you get to level 80 and get some half decent epics ( which are easy to obtain now ) the game become pretty pointless because everything will be outdated by the time of the next expansion . blizzard may be about to pay a big price for the short termism they introduced into warcraft in the last couple of years .
if aion delivers the goods .i think the drop could end up being 2-4 million or more by the end of the year .
i ve just noticed in another forum thread that aion has reached 3.5 million subs already in the east how accurate that is i m not sure but if it is aion must already be biting into blizzards subsciber numbers in the east in quite a big way . if that is emulated in the west the warcraft could being seeing an exodus within months . having not played it myself i cant comment on the game itself . from what people have told me is that its pretty impressive and not just another korean grinder . i dont think aion will kill warcraft but if it may offer some real competition to it at last . warcraft really only owes its popularity now because other mmos have so far failed to offer a mass appeal gaming experiance . this looks like it really could be set to change finaly this year with aion . also if the new star wars mmo takes off next year this will bite further into the warcraft subs . i think people who play wow like me will return to maintain thier characters for the odd month . but we also know once you get to level 80 and get some half decent epics ( which are easy to obtain now ) the game become pretty pointless because everything will be outdated by the time of the next expansion . blizzard may be about to pay a big price for the short termism they introduced into warcraft in the last couple of years . if aion delivers the goods .i think the drop could end up being 2-4 million or more by the end of the year .
So you think that Blizzard will lose 50% of its subscriber base to Aion? Thanks for the laugh. Since Aion has already launched in Asia, it only has the US and EU left. Those two areas comprise about 5 million or so WOW subscribers. I do not think that many will leave WOW.
Seriously, these WOW vs. Aion threads are getting funnier by the day. Lineage and Lineage 2 are huge in Asia but are nothing in the US and EU. I expect the same with Aion. So far the only thing I have heard about the game is pretty graphics with wings and RVR. That's great and all but the million dollar question is : HOW DOES IT PLAY? And don't link me videos because I will link you videos that show that Age of Conan will be the greatest game ever and be the next WOW-killer. Videos mean squat.
The same type of post was made about Age of Conan, Warhammer, and many other "WOW-killers" but it never happened. Why? Because those games were trying to compete with WOW. The real "WOW-killer" will be a game that re-does the MMO genre. If they copy WOW, they will fail because WOW is the original and it does what it does better than any other WOW-alike game.
The other thing people forget with WOW is the Blizzard loyalty. Many WOW players are big fans or Blizzard and all of their games - Diablo, Starcraft, etc... You not only have to convince peopel to leave WOW but abandon a Blizzard game. And its much easier said than done. Don't believe me? Look at how many people STILL play Starcraft and Diablo over Battle.net.
Finally, the other major thing to consider is that for many WOW players, it is the player's first MMO. It has been proven that MMO players always have a special place in their heart for their first game. I still feel that way about DAOC. Many WOW players will always feel that way about WOW. And for many, the only reason they will leave is if Blizzard does something that causes them to leave; much like the NGE did for SWG or TOA did for DAOC. Blizzard has yet to do anything of the sort and with the information coming out about the upcoming patches and plans, I doubt they will anytime soon.
Aion will not kill WOW nor will any other game in the immediate future. No, what will bring WOW down will be a combination of factors but honestly, the number 1 factor will be time. Just like with every other MMO, the biggest problem is time. At some point WOW will be like EQ and it will have too many years in the market. Sure, many will still play but it won't be huge like it is now.
I expect WOW's major competition in the future to be:
1. SW: TOR simply because many WOW players are fans of Star Wars and older who grew up with the movies. Add to that you have Bioware behind the game and there is promise. If Star trek Online is a good game, it could be some competition too.
2. Some unheard-of, random MMO, i.e. the next EVE. I could see a game like Fallen Earth or something like that surprising people and being really awesome. Mainly a game that launches under the radar and has little expectation from the community.
3. Blizzard itself. Blizzard could make a business decision that really has a negative affect on the game. The best example is something along the lines of a cash shop or RMT. I highly doubt this but who knows. It seems everytime I turn around some game is offering these new features.
None of this will kill WOW or cause a drastic change in sub numbers but could have an affect.
WOW is a cultural phenomenon and regardless if a few "WOW isn't the game for me because Blizzard doesn't have 40 man raids anymore" complainers on forums like it or not. For years now, would-be trolls have prophecied the downfall of WOW on forums everytime the next major game has come along: Age of Conan, Warhammer, Darkfall. Now we are into a new set of games with the same arguments. WOW will continue to thrive for years to come and for as long as Blizzard wants to support the game.
This is exactly the reason it will happen one day... Maybe not with Aion (Tough it makes a reasonable chance)... But the boys at Bliz have started thinking that they are untouchable, and become overcourageous. And that is exactly the moment most fighters are defeated for the first time..
Bliz will not loose all its describers at once, but slowly over a few months... and if servers are feeling empty, many many many more will leave.... Its like a dike... it starts with a few drops of water but if you don't repair the leak early on (preferably before it happens) all is lost..
Next to that, you seem to forget how popular Guildwars was in western lands, thats also an NC-soft product.
Comparing things with lineage is not that smart either, as in that time the genre MMO was not that popular yet, thats what WoW did.. it put the genre on the map big time.
We also have seen that people are ready for the next big thing, whole hordes jumping to every new game that arives (AoC, WAR) indicates most grew tired with WoW, and if the new game is really good, they will stick with it and Blizzards money making machine is in trouble.
Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)
This is exactly the reason it will happen one day... Maybe not with Aion (Tough it makes a reasonable chance)... But the boys at Bliz have started thinking that they are untouchable, and become overcourageous. And that is exactly the moment most fighters are defeated for the first time..
Bliz will not loose all its describers at once, but slowly over a few months... and if servers are feeling empty, many many many more will leave.... Its like a dike... it starts with a few drops of water but if you don't repair the leak early on (preferably before it happens) all is lost..
Next to that, you seem to forget how popular Guildwars was in western lands, thats also an NC-soft product.
Comparing things with lineage is not that smart either, as in that time the genre MMO was not that popular yet, thats what WoW did.. it put the genre on the map big time.
We also have seen that people are ready for the next big thing, whole hordes jumping to every new game that arives (AoC, WAR) indicates most grew tired with WoW, and if the new game is really good, they will stick with it and Blizzards money making machine is in trouble.
That's not a real analysis, that's just you projecting like crazy.
Comments
Thank you for your enlightened input.
IMO, once a decline in subs starts to happen we'll see an end to annoucements by Blizzard as it would serve no positive purpose to publish them. Only worth stating them when the news is good and upbeat, and silence will be our best indicator that things have gone into decline.
Will that happen this year or next? Has to happen one day, so eventually the prediction will come true, just a matter of when. (of course, same is true with everything)
I still see Blizzard actively adding new content and features which the core player base really seems to enjoy. I also see new games like Aion that might have a chance to pull some subs away.
I think you might see an increase in the number of players who leave for a while and come back for a few months when major content patches are released.
"True friends stab you in the front." | Oscar Wilde
"I need to finish" - Christian Wolff: The Accountant
Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
Fools find no pleasure in understanding but delight in airing their own opinions. Pvbs 18:2, NIV
Don't just play games, inhabit virtual worlds™
"This is the most intelligent, well qualified and articulate response to a post I have ever seen on these forums. It's a shame most people here won't have the attention span to read past the second line." - Anon
Thank you for your enlightened input.
You're quite welcome.
Still waiting for your Holy Grail MMORPG? Interesting...
I agree with the OP that WoW is and has been in a state of decline. It is to be expected with ANY MMO for this to happen eventually. With the wide range of new MMO's out it is impossible for this not to be the case. Yes, WoW does cater to the "simpleton players", meaning players that need something easy to play, and this is the only thing that has kept WoW alive as longas it has. They learned very early that there is a HUGE market of new players, or players that cant handle difficult gaming and capitalized on it.
- Case: Thermaltake Kandalf Black Chassis
- CPU: AMD Phenom II X4 955 Black Edition 3.2GHz (OC'd 4.2GHz on Water Cooling)
- Memory: Mushkin 8Gb (4x 2Gb) DDR3 1600Mhz
- HDD: Dual Western Digital Caviar Black 1TB 7200 RPM
- GFX: (2) XFX Radeon HD 5870 in CrossFire - New upgrade!
"I like wow, I like aion and I like AoC all for different reasons.....the later cause i get to see boobs, but still its a reason!!" - Sawlstone
I'm not a WoW hater and played it for a long time, probably will eventually resub but Zorn you really make the WoW forums here almost unreadable. Take a pause for the cause dude, give it a rest. Blizzard doesn't need a tank on the forums defending them, their sub numbers speak for themselves, you don't have too. Haters and trolls suck but fanboys suck just as much.
i cant wait till wow dies so i dont have to hear how many subs the game has.
My posts are always filled with decent arguments and why things happen or can be traced in general trends.
I post because I think people should realise the standards in polishment and overall game design are set this high.
I think people have ENOUGH of the launches we had to endure for the last 3 years.
And DF, Spellborn etc were the latest. Any suggestion why I have to stop in viewing this "quality" of the latest offerings ???
This is news to me. You dislike Spellborn now?
I'm shocked that game is actually pretty good. Tight combat, friendly quests, good pvp and pleasant graphics.
It's a much better product than AoC, WAR and Lotro imo.
Are you hating on every game thats not WoW now?
Adding that pitiful game Df in the same sentence as TCoS is an insult imo.
Playing: EvE, Ryzom
If such a thing would happen, do you actually think they would announce it?
Let's look at Warhammer, and how many people THAT game lost, do you actually see them openly stating how badly their crappy little game is doing?
Of course not. You play up your strengths; not your weaknesses. Sometimes financial and quarterly reports tell the details, though veiled.
My posts are always filled with decent arguments and why things happen or can be traced in general trends.
I post because I think people should realise the standards in polishment and overall game design are set this high.
I think people have ENOUGH of the launches we had to endure for the last 3 years.
And DF, Spellborn etc were the latest. Any suggestion why I have to stop in viewing this "quality" of the latest offerings ???
Its not exactly what you post because you usually argue pretty good and try to back up your claims. Its just how you post it gets very irritating. Your posts always seem emotionally charged, you underline words constantly, capslock/bold and other silly things trying to try and put emphasis on certain things when you don't need too. Also excessively use of smileys which just irritates the hell out of people. When I read your posts its like I am reading a 13 year old girl drama play. If you would type normally people would be a lot more likely to take your arguments seriously instead of getting irritated and blowing you off as a fanboy.
i ve just noticed in another forum thread that aion has reached 3.5 million subs already in the east how accurate that is i m not sure but if it is aion must already be biting into blizzards subsciber numbers in the east in quite a big way . if that is emulated in the west the warcraft could being seeing an exodus within months . having not played it myself i cant comment on the game itself . from what people have told me is that its pretty impressive and not just another korean grinder . i dont think aion will kill warcraft but if it may offer some real competition to it at last . warcraft really only owes its popularity now because other mmos have so far failed to offer a mass appeal gaming experiance . this looks like it really could be set to change finaly this year with aion . also if the new star wars mmo takes off next year this will bite further into the warcraft subs . i think people who play wow like me will return to maintain thier characters for the odd month . but we also know once you get to level 80 and get some half decent epics ( which are easy to obtain now ) the game become pretty pointless because everything will be outdated by the time of the next expansion . blizzard may be about to pay a big price for the short termism they introduced into warcraft in the last couple of years .
if aion delivers the goods .i think the drop could end up being 2-4 million or more by the end of the year .
So you think that Blizzard will lose 50% of its subscriber base to Aion? Thanks for the laugh. Since Aion has already launched in Asia, it only has the US and EU left. Those two areas comprise about 5 million or so WOW subscribers. I do not think that many will leave WOW.
Seriously, these WOW vs. Aion threads are getting funnier by the day. Lineage and Lineage 2 are huge in Asia but are nothing in the US and EU. I expect the same with Aion. So far the only thing I have heard about the game is pretty graphics with wings and RVR. That's great and all but the million dollar question is : HOW DOES IT PLAY? And don't link me videos because I will link you videos that show that Age of Conan will be the greatest game ever and be the next WOW-killer. Videos mean squat.
The same type of post was made about Age of Conan, Warhammer, and many other "WOW-killers" but it never happened. Why? Because those games were trying to compete with WOW. The real "WOW-killer" will be a game that re-does the MMO genre. If they copy WOW, they will fail because WOW is the original and it does what it does better than any other WOW-alike game.
The other thing people forget with WOW is the Blizzard loyalty. Many WOW players are big fans or Blizzard and all of their games - Diablo, Starcraft, etc... You not only have to convince peopel to leave WOW but abandon a Blizzard game. And its much easier said than done. Don't believe me? Look at how many people STILL play Starcraft and Diablo over Battle.net.
Finally, the other major thing to consider is that for many WOW players, it is the player's first MMO. It has been proven that MMO players always have a special place in their heart for their first game. I still feel that way about DAOC. Many WOW players will always feel that way about WOW. And for many, the only reason they will leave is if Blizzard does something that causes them to leave; much like the NGE did for SWG or TOA did for DAOC. Blizzard has yet to do anything of the sort and with the information coming out about the upcoming patches and plans, I doubt they will anytime soon.
Aion will not kill WOW nor will any other game in the immediate future. No, what will bring WOW down will be a combination of factors but honestly, the number 1 factor will be time. Just like with every other MMO, the biggest problem is time. At some point WOW will be like EQ and it will have too many years in the market. Sure, many will still play but it won't be huge like it is now.
I expect WOW's major competition in the future to be:
1. SW: TOR simply because many WOW players are fans of Star Wars and older who grew up with the movies. Add to that you have Bioware behind the game and there is promise. If Star trek Online is a good game, it could be some competition too.
2. Some unheard-of, random MMO, i.e. the next EVE. I could see a game like Fallen Earth or something like that surprising people and being really awesome. Mainly a game that launches under the radar and has little expectation from the community.
3. Blizzard itself. Blizzard could make a business decision that really has a negative affect on the game. The best example is something along the lines of a cash shop or RMT. I highly doubt this but who knows. It seems everytime I turn around some game is offering these new features.
None of this will kill WOW or cause a drastic change in sub numbers but could have an affect.
WOW is a cultural phenomenon and regardless if a few "WOW isn't the game for me because Blizzard doesn't have 40 man raids anymore" complainers on forums like it or not. For years now, would-be trolls have prophecied the downfall of WOW on forums everytime the next major game has come along: Age of Conan, Warhammer, Darkfall. Now we are into a new set of games with the same arguments. WOW will continue to thrive for years to come and for as long as Blizzard wants to support the game.
This is exactly the reason it will happen one day... Maybe not with Aion (Tough it makes a reasonable chance)... But the boys at Bliz have started thinking that they are untouchable, and become overcourageous. And that is exactly the moment most fighters are defeated for the first time..
Bliz will not loose all its describers at once, but slowly over a few months... and if servers are feeling empty, many many many more will leave.... Its like a dike... it starts with a few drops of water but if you don't repair the leak early on (preferably before it happens) all is lost..
Next to that, you seem to forget how popular Guildwars was in western lands, thats also an NC-soft product.
Comparing things with lineage is not that smart either, as in that time the genre MMO was not that popular yet, thats what WoW did.. it put the genre on the map big time.
We also have seen that people are ready for the next big thing, whole hordes jumping to every new game that arives (AoC, WAR) indicates most grew tired with WoW, and if the new game is really good, they will stick with it and Blizzards money making machine is in trouble.
Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)
That's not a real analysis, that's just you projecting like crazy.