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Next big hit.
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Member Posts: 372
Everquest 1 changed the mmo market and then Wow. Who will be next? I think it is going to come out of left field. I do not think it will be Aion, or Knights of the Old Republic. What do you think?
Comments
hmmm Maybe the baseball analogy got this in my brain "come out of left field" maybe its Curt Schillings MMO. But you never know ....things have changed I didnt know anything about MMO's before EQ now it seems I know everything coming out and playing beta's and such.
The reason maybe I think it could be Curt's is because he is a MMO player first so its sorta like one of us making one! You know the argument "well if you don't like it make your own game" which is a dumb argument because most of us don't have the cash. Well he happens to be one that does have the cash or a good portion to blow on one of his hobbies. I am sure he is not blowing tons of his cash but still ya never know.
Why are we playing the predict the future game? A big hit is not something instant, and no one know which game will be a big hit until it is already a big hit.
I am not even going into your "western market only" perception of the MMORPG industry since systems like EQ1 and WoW's concept was already done before in more localized smaller mmo markets, the only reason why those concept did not become a big hit was not about the game itself in most cases. Some games does not go global and remains buried in gaming history as a localized game of a certain country while others have great concept but are not easily accessible globally.
The top three required factors for a game to become a big hit have very little to do with the game itself, the game only has to be slightly fresh and of decent quality. The rest are really marketing, ease of access, and targeted audience.
Let's say if a no name game company developed a wonderful martial arts MMORPG. In terms of marketing, it is made by a no name small company, so no luck there globally. In terms of ease of access, it is also difficult due to company size and the martial arts theme. Lastly in terms of audience, martial arts theme will in one way or another limit what player groups the game will attract in different markets.
The answer is, we won't know till it happen. A big hit is really more a popularity contest than a game quality contest.
On another note, Aion is already a big hit when viewing the Easterm market alone, we will only know about global when the game is released. TOR is not released yet either, so I'll refrain from making any uninformed opinions.
No game with this possibility is close enough to launch to make a prediction yet. However, I am encouraged by the innovation on the horizon,e.g; SW:TOR with its story-driven gameplay and full voice acting, APB with it's GTA/RPG hybrid style and customization, and The Secret World, with it's classless, horror-genre mystery solving. These are my biased opinions and what I am excited for. I am sure there are others. But it's too soon to tell what, if any, innovations will be a break away hit.
I would love to see something come out of the Shadowrun Awakened MMO that is in the works... But really that is WAY far our still.... But it looks like it could be promising unfortunately it is moving at a very very slow rate. But it is being made by fans of the Shadowrun Pen and Paper game and they seem to really want to keep it close to core game... So i am keeping my fingers crossed.
Other than that I think Aion is going to be the next big hit. The game plays amazingly smooth offers PVP and great PVE that is also contested. The game world is amazing looking the crafting is well thought out. A game where you can level you character by crafting. Its a slight different approach than say Vanguard did it with completely different level sets not based off adventuring.. But it will be nice to actually earn character xp when i am making potions. Open world content mixed with instanced content.. Its like a full bag.
I don't think we'll see it until the major developers stop trying to make every game emulate WOW. Right now the newer games come in with hype but don't last long, and I think that trend will continue in the next year or so. SWTOR might be it, and will certainly attract a following, but I think that it will just pave the way for whatever the next huge hit will be.
Darkfall, maybe. The developers are listening to their player base. It is evident in each patch. Proof.
There are not many MMO's that listen to their playerbase. They all seem to do whatever they want, even the big dog.
The definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
What is your definition of big hit? If you mean the next MMO to have huge subsription numbers then Aion is already it.
Two possibles that may change the way MMO Companies design games are World of Darkness and The Secret World. But as they're both such a long way off it's difficult to predict.
SW:TOR will be a great game but won't bring anything radically different to the table. Blizzards new MMO may bring something new as they may want to produce something that isn't in direct competition to WoW, but we have no idea what they are planning so again it's all speculation.
I'm picking a spy / espionage MMO.
A true open world with lots of gameplay options where smart play is rewarded and easy mode, while still available, will not give gamers anything close to the full game experience.
Much of the game play will be player generated.
And NO. None of the games in development (like The Agency for example) are even close to what I am thinking of.
It will succeed because players will be able to identify with it - yet it will be far enough from reality to make it an escapist game.
That, and it's not still more swords and wizards.
Nothing says irony like spelling ideot wrong.
I don't think in such a discussion you can talk about the Eastern Market.
Aion in the Eastern Market is NOT the same game being released in the EU/NA. So you can't really claim that this ONE game has huge subscriptions...it doesn't, it is two entirely different games using the same engine. There is also the fact that the game is marketed and subscribed to differently in those countries. So any game that is sold in the Eastern Markets; Korea, China and Japan, undergo a different dynamic then those released and sold in Europe and the US which usually require a monthly subscription as compared to buying 'hours' in the game.
So Aion cannot claim to be succesful, in a conversation involving EQ and WoW, until it does well in the EU/NA market. Until then it hasn't been released here and has no standing.
This goes for ALL games released in the Eastern Market, if you want to talk about how succesful they are, then you must talk about how succesful they are ONLY in the Eastern Market. Unless they are released in the EU/NA they are NOT comparable to games like EQ and WoW.
As to the topic, which will be the next big thing, I think STO might do well, due to the recent movie and the fact that Star Trek fans are quite loyal, I don't think it will have mass appeal though. SW:TOR will definitely do well, I have been following this game for awhile and I am looking forward to it, but we will have to see.
Dude do a search there are a million of these stupid threads out there. Who cares what the next big mmo will be. Lets focus on today.
I don't think in such a discussion you can talk about the Eastern Market.
Aion in the Eastern Market is NOT the same game being released in the EU/NA. So you can't really claim that this ONE game has huge subscriptions...it doesn't, it is two entirely different games using the same engine. There is also the fact that the game is marketed and subscribed to differently in those countries. So any game that is sold in the Eastern Markets; Korea, China and Japan, undergo a different dynamic then those released and sold in Europe and the US which usually require a monthly subscription as compared to buying 'hours' in the game.
So Aion cannot claim to be succesful, in a conversation involving EQ and WoW, until it does well in the EU/NA market. Until then it hasn't been released here and has no standing.
This goes for ALL games released in the Eastern Market, if you want to talk about how succesful they are, then you must talk about how succesful they are ONLY in the Eastern Market. Unless they are released in the EU/NA they are NOT comparable to games like EQ and WoW.
As to the topic, which will be the next big thing, I think STO might do well, due to the recent movie and the fact that Star Trek fans are quite loyal, I don't think it will have mass appeal though. SW:TOR will definitely do well, I have been following this game for awhile and I am looking forward to it, but we will have to see.
How is Aion a different game over here in the west? We are getting 1.5 and as far as I know 1.5 is the latest version of the game available. I played the Chinese Version and its the same game that I have been beta testing here. I am not talking about western subs. I am talking about Global subs because those are the only numbers that matter. You cant divide subs into what you want them to be. WoW has 11 Million subs Global. You cant say that the 7 or 8 Million that comes from Asia dont count. Same thing goes for Aion. Last I heard Aion had about 3.5 Million subs in Asia. Even if Aion does not release anywhere else it still has 3.5 subs making it the #2 Pay to Play MMO out there. The title of the thread was the next big hit not the next big hit in the west.
I think AION will be a solid game and have a substantial number of players from the US. Will be a hit (a la EQ1, WoW)? I dunno ...but it has all the makings for it.
Torrential: DAOC (Pendragon)
Awned: World of Warcraft (Lothar)
Torren: Warhammer Online (Praag)
I think Aion comes at the right time. Part of WoW crowd is getting bored + there is not other major release this fall, so it will have quite few months in disposal to grow subs unhindered. Of course, fate of War&AOC is still possibility... We shall see.
I agree with you.
I am hopeful that Aion will be entertaining for a while. It really does come at at time where there is nothing else to do. Nothing new to play that really catches my interest at least.
I also place a good bit of faith into FXIV. XI was not my cup of tea, but I still like what they were doing. Had I free time out the wazoo, and group of friends who played, I probably would have stuck with it.
As for TOR. I really do have faith in Bioware. I do not think that they will disappoint. But much of what we assume about this title, both negative and positive, is conjecture.
But there could very well be another mmo well into production that we know very little, or noting about that could fly out and blindside us. (Like the DBZ MMO! wooo! XD)
So as is the life of an mmo player, I play the waiting game.
I don't think in such a discussion you can talk about the Eastern Market.
Aion in the Eastern Market is NOT the same game being released in the EU/NA. So you can't really claim that this ONE game has huge subscriptions...it doesn't, it is two entirely different games using the same engine. There is also the fact that the game is marketed and subscribed to differently in those countries. So any game that is sold in the Eastern Markets; Korea, China and Japan, undergo a different dynamic then those released and sold in Europe and the US which usually require a monthly subscription as compared to buying 'hours' in the game.
So Aion cannot claim to be succesful, in a conversation involving EQ and WoW, until it does well in the EU/NA market. Until then it hasn't been released here and has no standing.
This goes for ALL games released in the Eastern Market, if you want to talk about how succesful they are, then you must talk about how succesful they are ONLY in the Eastern Market. Unless they are released in the EU/NA they are NOT comparable to games like EQ and WoW.
As to the topic, which will be the next big thing, I think STO might do well, due to the recent movie and the fact that Star Trek fans are quite loyal, I don't think it will have mass appeal though. SW:TOR will definitely do well, I have been following this game for awhile and I am looking forward to it, but we will have to see.
Aion is the same game globally it was designed for a global audience. Just like WOW it will be successful in all hemispheres.
----ITS A TRAP!!!----
TOR is the only one I think right now stands a chance... Following that maybe the unannounced Blizzard MMO...
after 6 or so years, I had to change it a little...
I agree about TOR. The Old Republic has the right recipe for huge success: a well respected developer and publisher, very solid financial backing, and a hugely popular IP. If the game turns out to be good, I see no reason why it won't dominate the MMO scene. So far, the only people who are really skeptical about TOR are hardcore MMO players, and that's a small group of players (most of whom will buy the game anyway).
Aion might be good, but it doesn't have that "recipe" for huge success. It's an unknown IP and it has the stigma of being Asian-developed (will the language translations be good? will they add RMT mall?). I'm sure Aion will do very well, but I don't think it's going to dominate.
mmmmm starcraft mmorpg........what else can Blizzard do now
Definitly something not yet in development, or in development but zero info about it.
Only game that might get high attention might be SW:Tor, not so much from the MMORPG community but more from the general "I play all type of games" community. Like me I am getting somewhat more excited about the game as a game, still not excited in a MMORPG way towards SW:Tor. But it will not be the next big hit, aka EQ1 or WOW.
I would not even suprise me if it will be Blizzard again who might creat the Next Big Hit. We already know it will be nothing like WOW in anyway as they said many times already.
But of the game we know are close to be released or in development with some info here and there I do not see any of them become The Next Big Hit.
The only company and designers I can think of that fit the bill for this are KingsIsle.
They have an MMO in development that no-one knows anything about. But they only have a (relatively) small team?
Still, the talent is there.
Nothing says irony like spelling ideot wrong.
The next big hit, might be the small game with not so many players. That would definitely change the market.
Right now TOR is going to be the first game to release made with the Hero Engine. The Hero Engine has progressed since the devs of TOR got it.
More games are in the pipe using the Hero Engine, many of which the devs of the Hero Engine have said they can't reveal just yet because they are still under and NDA.
What happens when the HE turns ou tto work really well, and comes down in price. You add that to a good inexpensive Asian art pipeline, and you get games that don't cost 50 mill to make.
Which means you don't need 2 million subscribers to make a profit.
Which means you can cater to a smaller audience.
So, I think the next BIG thing, will be lots of smaller games that make a buck, but dont' become huge hits like WoW.
The Secret world maybe, only because what's on paper so far seems different to same shit different day stuff we have at the moment.
Aion might be "big, it certainly won't be a big hit, bit it will carry itself for a while.
I'm not sure about TOR. I think it will hold a decent amount of subs purely because it's new, and it's Star Wars.
APB won't be a big hit. It will fill a certain hole that people are maybe looking for (me including for a time), but it won't sustain.
I'm putting my money on Mortal Online.