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So we've read the reports. We know what FC expects to see with AOC. We know where the competition stands. We know what the future of AOC is to be according to FC, and we know what the past has been in reality.
To me AOC is nearing the end of its attractiveness to players in the USA and to folks who enjoy MMOs. The fact that the free trials were a total failure to net additional subs, clearly demonstrates that AOC were it to improve and deliver an exprience that can increase subs, has a long long way to go. Obvioulsy FC has been banking on the fact that stable performance in some areas and a DX10 beta in a live product over 500 days old now, is good enough to bring back the masses.
Well clearly by their own facts and figures it is not. Saying AOC is healthy is also not a sure thing or even wise. Reason being the populations on individual servers reach a point where they are a cliff, you ride the edge only so long and then over the cliff your server goes. Implosion only takes a month or two and the result is 75% of subs on that server are lost. Just because they project a loss of revenue i.e. subscriptions doesn't mean those won't rapidly acclerate the closer servers get to that edge and should they hit that edge and fall over or if the mechanics of the game change in 1.06 which raise the level that cliff point exists. Bottom line if you aren't betting against AOC/FC you may as well start because to this day and prior to they've shown neither competence or excellence in their production of AOC and without anything changing on that front one cannot exepect different results with more time.
Case closed, AOC looses.