Closed Beta starts March 11th!!!

Khrymson

As I called it, Beta wouldn't start until after the launch of FFXIII here in the US!  This is of course worldwide beta, and its speculated that invites will start being sent out; starting March 1st and over the next week or so after, so start refreshing your email every 10min...hehe!

 

Also everyone that attended Vanafest are the first invites into beta!

linren

Nice, time to pray that beta form I sent in does its magic.

Naturalist99

linren, me as well hope that I get in, but not for the march 11st playtesters, im pretty sure theyve selected there first group of testers  

linren

Originally posted by Naturalist99


linren, me as well hope that I get in, but not for the march 11st playtesters, im pretty sure theyve selected there first group of testers  

 

Yeah I pretty much gave up on group 1 more or less.  It was a long shot to begin with when it comes to CB most times.

Naturalist99

 ya, tough life, and people in africa think they have it bad when we cant get into group 1 beta haha

bronecar

Originally posted by Lexica

Originally posted by Naturalist99


 ya, tough life, and people in africa think they have it bad when we cant get into group 1 beta haha

 

Idiot.

 

He was trying to make an innocent joke; if you cared so much about people worldwide you'd donate your pocket money in their support, not call people names.

FearGX

So they have not chosen anyone from the large pool into closed beta yet? Just wanna clear it up any1 clarify?

linren

Originally posted by Naturalist99

Originally posted by Lexica

Originally posted by Naturalist99


 ya, tough life, and people in africa think they have it bad when we cant get into group 1 beta haha

 

Idiot.

was that really necessary man? It was a joke, I know, rather crude humor, but can you tell sarcasm from reality?  Quit ur trollin

 

LOL someone got offended in my place.  Except I didn't find it offense since it was a joke remark.

I used starving people plenty on the forum sometimes to make a point, I am sure mine was much much more offensive than this anyways. XD

 

x3r0h

Hmmm...Just to play devil's advocate, let us assume then, that if the beta cycles are on schedule, and there are no unanticipated errors, that we can expect open beta as early as the middle of the summer, I presume?

Let's see, lets assume that for argument's sake there will be four closed beta cycles (worst case scenario). The first string of testers would definitely be Square Enix employees and handpicked others. Assuming that that cycle runs for a duration of two months,  May 11th would signal the start of closed beta 2. Assuming that the things that were once major concerns have been handled at that time, let us assume the converging cb2 would take a month. That would leave us at May 11 - June 11. Generally at this point the testers would be either randomly chosen, or chosen based on certain factors (ie., computer specs, tester preferences, game specifics, etc.). Speculating that the next cycle would be 3 weeks would leave us at closed beta 3 ending somewhere around the week of May 31st. During that week and the next, lets assume the subsequent closed beta, cb 4, be a stress focus that would last only 2 weeks. As such, open beta would begin on June 14th, lasting for only one week, since lord knows the game has been hyped enough already.

 

With these fairly ample time estimates (and i mean ample for two reasons: Foremost, for most mmorpg developments, closed betas are usually in cycles of three, and as such I have assumed the worst case scenario with four whopping cycles and secondly, I have given more than the required, albeit recommended, time frames for each individual cycle), I predict the expected release date to be Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010.

Naturalist99

yes of course, i didnt give 2 shits when i found out they chose beta testers and I wasnt one, I just thought itd be pretty kool u no? but keeping up on the mmo is almsot as good and waiting for that dang SWTOR beta, theyve been accpeting testers for a good while now, so whens that beta? 

linren

Originally posted by x3r0h


Hmmm...Just to play devil's advocate, let us assume then, that if the beta cycles are on schedule, and there are no unanticipated errors, that we can expect open beta as early as the middle of the summer, I presume?
Let's see, lets assume that for argument's sake there will be four closed beta cycles (worst case scenario). The first string of testers would definitely be Square Enix employees and handpicked others. Assuming that that cycle runs for a duration of two months,  May 11th would signal the start of closed beta 2. Assuming that the things that were once major concerns have been handled at that time, let us assume the converging cb2 would take a month. That would leave us at May 11 - June 11. Generally at this point the testers would be either randomly chosen, or chosen based on certain factors (ie., computer specs, tester preferences, game specifics, etc.). Speculating that the next cycle would be 3 weeks would leave us at closed beta 3 ending somewhere around the week of May 31st. During that week and the next, lets assume the subsequent closed beta, cb 4, be a stress focus that would last only 2 weeks. As such, open beta would begin on June 14th, lasting for only one week, since lord knows the game has been hyped enough already.
 
With these fairly ample time estimates (and i mean ample for two reasons: Foremost, for most mmorpg developments, closed betas are usually in cycles of three, and as such I have assumed the worst case scenario with four whopping cycles and secondly, I have given more than the required, albeit recommended, time frames for each individual cycle), I predict the expected release date to be Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010.

 

I am not sure if SE is being modest or not, but last interview they still say only a small fraction of the game is considered being capable of showcased and tested.  Which means the core mechanics are probably largely complete, but the contents itself is in an unkown state.  SE is one of those strange companies that like to make understatements to the public (except for a few spokesmen), but usually it turns out to be modesty.  (Damn Japs)

Well lets for one minute assume SE is speak relative truth that CB will affect what they do with content, then it could cause a delay depending on the situation.  I think June might be too optimistic, but when looking at the launch version of FFXI and the soon arrived Rise of Zilart expansion.  It is still possible for a June release, but I would guess it probably would be more likely to be a Fall release.

Naturalist99

Predictions for me

Closed beta: March - Late September/Early October

Open Beta: Late October/Early November

Release: Anywhere in December to January

x3r0h

Originally posted by linren

Originally posted by x3r0h


Hmmm...Just to play devil's advocate, let us assume then, that if the beta cycles are on schedule, and there are no unanticipated errors, that we can expect open beta as early as the middle of the summer, I presume?
Let's see, lets assume that for argument's sake there will be four closed beta cycles (worst case scenario). The first string of testers would definitely be Square Enix employees and handpicked others. Assuming that that cycle runs for a duration of two months,  May 11th would signal the start of closed beta 2. Assuming that the things that were once major concerns have been handled at that time, let us assume the converging cb2 would take a month. That would leave us at May 11 - June 11. Generally at this point the testers would be either randomly chosen, or chosen based on certain factors (ie., computer specs, tester preferences, game specifics, etc.). Speculating that the next cycle would be 3 weeks would leave us at closed beta 3 ending somewhere around the week of May 31st. During that week and the next, lets assume the subsequent closed beta, cb 4, be a stress focus that would last only 2 weeks. As such, open beta would begin on June 14th, lasting for only one week, since lord knows the game has been hyped enough already.
 
With these fairly ample time estimates (and i mean ample for two reasons: Foremost, for most mmorpg developments, closed betas are usually in cycles of three, and as such I have assumed the worst case scenario with four whopping cycles and secondly, I have given more than the required, albeit recommended, time frames for each individual cycle), I predict the expected release date to be Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010.

 

I am not sure if SE is being modest or not, but last interview they still say only a small fraction of the game is considered being capable of showcased and tested.  Which means the core mechanics are probably largely complete, but the contents itself is in an unkown state.  SE is one of those strange companies that like to make understatements to the public (except for a few spokesmen), but usually it turns out to be modesty.  (Damn Japs)

Well lets for one minute assume SE is speak relative truth that CB will affect what they do with content, then it could cause a delay depending on the situation.  I think June might be too optimistic, but when looking at the launch version of FFXI and the soon arrived Rise of Zilart expansion.  It is still possible for a June release, but I would guess it probably would be more likely to be a Fall release.

 

In response to your enlightened reply, do you think, in terms of a business model, would they favor a fall release over a summer release? I have heard that developers usually like fall releases because they want to get the best out of the fiscal year's total net revenue. In my mind though, I would assume that the majority of the target audience, the young crowd that is, would generally want to put money on something they can play during their summer vacation.

Simsu

Originally posted by x3r0h


 
since lord knows the game has been hyped enough already.

Ur... What hype has SE been putting out about FFXIV? How much hype is "enough" hype? What amount of hype is an appropriate amount of hype? What do you even consider hype? If two people sit down and discuss game possibilities is that hype? What about 10 people, is that hype?

I think there has been a handful of interviews, 1-2 game conventions, a couple articles in Japanese gaming magazines and some official site updates. All for a game that has been in development for what 2-3 years?

x3r0h

Originally posted by Naturalist99


Predictions for me
Closed beta: March - Late September/Early October
Open Beta: Late October/Early November
Release: Anywhere in December to January

 

I'm curious as to why you think (if I am interpreting it clearly), you placed a month-long prediction for Open Beta? Is that usually the norm? I'd assume once a developer has a game ready and fixed they would want to generate cash off of it as soon as possible...Or is this just naive thinking on my part?

x3r0h

Originally posted by Simsu

Originally posted by x3r0h


 
since lord knows the game has been hyped enough already.

Ur... What hype has SE been putting out about FFXIV? How much hype is "enough" hype? What amount of hype is an appropriate amount of hype? What do you even consider hype? If two people sit down and discuss game possibilities is that hype? What about 10 people, is that hype?

I think there has been a handful of interviews, 1-2 game conventions, a couple articles in Japanese gaming magazines and some official site updates. All for a game that has been in development for what 2-3 years?

 

I meant the hype generated by the fans of Square Enix, the Final Fantasy franchise, or mmorpgs in general.

Naturalist99

 Its a month becasue they know that Open beta first off shouldnt be to long since many people trial a game in that point, closed beta is for bug testing and content testing and what not, the open beta is for extensive server stress tests to make the launch less crashy and more fluid so people can actually play, SE knows what there doing and they are going to make sure that this game gets its fair share of testing before its release so it can get a steady launch and be successful

x3r0h

Originally posted by Simsu

Originally posted by x3r0h


 
since lord knows the game has been hyped enough already.

Ur... What hype has SE been putting out about FFXIV? How much hype is "enough" hype? What amount of hype is an appropriate amount of hype? What do you even consider hype? If two people sit down and discuss game possibilities is that hype? What about 10 people, is that hype?

I think there has been a handful of interviews, 1-2 game conventions, a couple articles in Japanese gaming magazines and some official site updates. All for a game that has been in development for what 2-3 years?

 

It was first mentioned in 2005, who knows how long its been in development before then?

x3r0h

Originally posted by Naturalist99


 Its a month becasue they know that Open beta first off shouldnt be to long since many people trial a game in that point, closed beta is for bug testing and content testing and what not, the open beta is for extensive server stress tests to make the launch less crashy and more fluid so people can actually play, SE knows what there doing and they are going to make sure that this game gets its fair share of testing before its release so it can get a steady launch and be successful

 

Do you know of any games that have had a month-long open beta? I'm trying to think off the top of my head but the only two I can remember correctly were Star Trek Online (one week) and Aion (two weeks...I think?).

Naturalist99

 Those games also used there open betas as marketing strategies to, SE might to that to, but Aion and STO didnt have the cleanest launches in the world either, Aion did but because this was ported from Korea remmber that

x3r0h

Originally posted by Naturalist99


 Those games also used there open betas as marketing strategies to, SE might to that to, but Aion and STO didnt have the cleanest launches in the world either, Aion did but because this was ported from Korea remmber that

 

Ah yes, I do remember that Aion had been out for a year already in Korea before it was released here. Good point.

linren

Originally posted by x3r0h

Originally posted by linren

Originally posted by x3r0h


Hmmm...Just to play devil's advocate, let us assume then, that if the beta cycles are on schedule, and there are no unanticipated errors, that we can expect open beta as early as the middle of the summer, I presume?
Let's see, lets assume that for argument's sake there will be four closed beta cycles (worst case scenario). The first string of testers would definitely be Square Enix employees and handpicked others. Assuming that that cycle runs for a duration of two months,  May 11th would signal the start of closed beta 2. Assuming that the things that were once major concerns have been handled at that time, let us assume the converging cb2 would take a month. That would leave us at May 11 - June 11. Generally at this point the testers would be either randomly chosen, or chosen based on certain factors (ie., computer specs, tester preferences, game specifics, etc.). Speculating that the next cycle would be 3 weeks would leave us at closed beta 3 ending somewhere around the week of May 31st. During that week and the next, lets assume the subsequent closed beta, cb 4, be a stress focus that would last only 2 weeks. As such, open beta would begin on June 14th, lasting for only one week, since lord knows the game has been hyped enough already.
 
With these fairly ample time estimates (and i mean ample for two reasons: Foremost, for most mmorpg developments, closed betas are usually in cycles of three, and as such I have assumed the worst case scenario with four whopping cycles and secondly, I have given more than the required, albeit recommended, time frames for each individual cycle), I predict the expected release date to be Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010.

 

I am not sure if SE is being modest or not, but last interview they still say only a small fraction of the game is considered being capable of showcased and tested.  Which means the core mechanics are probably largely complete, but the contents itself is in an unkown state.  SE is one of those strange companies that like to make understatements to the public (except for a few spokesmen), but usually it turns out to be modesty.  (Damn Japs)

Well lets for one minute assume SE is speak relative truth that CB will affect what they do with content, then it could cause a delay depending on the situation.  I think June might be too optimistic, but when looking at the launch version of FFXI and the soon arrived Rise of Zilart expansion.  It is still possible for a June release, but I would guess it probably would be more likely to be a Fall release.

 

In response to your enlightened reply, do you think, in terms of a business model, would they favor a fall release over a summer release? I have heard that developers usually like fall releases because they want to get the best out of the fiscal year's total net revenue. In my mind though, I would assume that the majority of the target audience, the young crowd that is, would generally want to put money on something they can play during their summer vacation.

 

You've made a very good point that I was actually just thinking about.  In developer's eyes a start of summer release is great for gathering players due to summer vacation.  (And that it is too damn hot to go outside sometimes than play MMO)  However, many times this decision is not up to the developers.  SE is a corporation and a rather large one at that, so many times what happens would be the financial sectors gets more attention when it comes to setting a release date.  As you have said most companies favor a fall release for the fiscal year's total net revenue, and the bigger the company the more likely this happen.

Of course a summer release is still possible since this is a MMORPG we are talking about, so gathering players is actually a very important aspect to make the game successful.  Another noteworthy point is that larger companies can push a game out the door much faster than indy game studios, so it is possible SE might rush the project to aim for a summer release.  Since neither of us work for SE (right?), I think we can only wait and see what they determine to be best for their company.

x3r0h

Originally posted by linren

Originally posted by x3r0h

Originally posted by linren

Originally posted by x3r0h


Hmmm...Just to play devil's advocate, let us assume then, that if the beta cycles are on schedule, and there are no unanticipated errors, that we can expect open beta as early as the middle of the summer, I presume?
Let's see, lets assume that for argument's sake there will be four closed beta cycles (worst case scenario). The first string of testers would definitely be Square Enix employees and handpicked others. Assuming that that cycle runs for a duration of two months,  May 11th would signal the start of closed beta 2. Assuming that the things that were once major concerns have been handled at that time, let us assume the converging cb2 would take a month. That would leave us at May 11 - June 11. Generally at this point the testers would be either randomly chosen, or chosen based on certain factors (ie., computer specs, tester preferences, game specifics, etc.). Speculating that the next cycle would be 3 weeks would leave us at closed beta 3 ending somewhere around the week of May 31st. During that week and the next, lets assume the subsequent closed beta, cb 4, be a stress focus that would last only 2 weeks. As such, open beta would begin on June 14th, lasting for only one week, since lord knows the game has been hyped enough already.
 
With these fairly ample time estimates (and i mean ample for two reasons: Foremost, for most mmorpg developments, closed betas are usually in cycles of three, and as such I have assumed the worst case scenario with four whopping cycles and secondly, I have given more than the required, albeit recommended, time frames for each individual cycle), I predict the expected release date to be Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010.

 

I am not sure if SE is being modest or not, but last interview they still say only a small fraction of the game is considered being capable of showcased and tested.  Which means the core mechanics are probably largely complete, but the contents itself is in an unkown state.  SE is one of those strange companies that like to make understatements to the public (except for a few spokesmen), but usually it turns out to be modesty.  (Damn Japs)

Well lets for one minute assume SE is speak relative truth that CB will affect what they do with content, then it could cause a delay depending on the situation.  I think June might be too optimistic, but when looking at the launch version of FFXI and the soon arrived Rise of Zilart expansion.  It is still possible for a June release, but I would guess it probably would be more likely to be a Fall release.

 

In response to your enlightened reply, do you think, in terms of a business model, would they favor a fall release over a summer release? I have heard that developers usually like fall releases because they want to get the best out of the fiscal year's total net revenue. In my mind though, I would assume that the majority of the target audience, the young crowd that is, would generally want to put money on something they can play during their summer vacation.

 

You've made a very good point that I was actually just thinking about.  In developer's eyes a start of summer release is great for gathering players due to summer vacation.  (And that it is too damn hot to go outside sometimes than play MMO)  However, many times this decision is not up to the developers.  SE is a corporation and a rather large one at that, so many times what happens would be the financial sectors gets more attention when it comes to setting a release date.  As you have said most companies favor a fall release for the fiscal year's total net revenue, and the bigger the company the more likely this happen.

Of course a summer release is still possible since this is a MMORPG we are talking about, so gathering players is actually a very important aspect to make the game successful.  Another noteworthy point is that larger companies can push a game out the door much faster than indy game studios, so it is possible SE might rush the project to aim for a summer release.  Since neither of us work for SE (right?), I think we can only wait and see what they determine to be best for their company.

 

Haha, yeah I'm definitely not a Square Enix employee. But your reply made me think of two distinct gamers: Short-term gamers, and Long-term gamers.

Assuming that we would expect a summer release, the gamers they will make money off of, again, would be the vacationing young crowd. As such, they may or may not have the intention of playing the game a year down the line, or even, after they go back to school. As such, Square Enix probably would generate a lot of short-term gamers, and the expected long-term gamers who have been waiting for this game religiously.

If we expect a fall release, we can assume that there would be more long-term gamers, since people during that time are busy enough as it is with the oncoming holidays and their already busy work and/or family constraints. Yet the difference between the two is that the long-term gamer will probably generate more money for Square Enix not necessarily for their casual play times, but because they have the means and desire to be subscribed longer.

Under this approach, I would assume Square Enix would want to have a consistent base of long-term gamers than a lot of short-term gamers at any given quarter. So yeah, even though I hope and speculate for a summer release, I do see why they might want to wait just a few more months if it will mean more money in the long run.

x3r0h

Originally posted by Khrymson


As I called it, Beta wouldn't start until after the launch of FFXIII here in the US!  This is of course worldwide beta, and its speculated that invites will start being sent out; starting March 1st and over the next week or so after, so start refreshing your email every 10min...hehe!
 
Also everyone that attended Vanafest are the first invites into beta!

 

I'm curious as to what the OP has to say in light of this discussion we are having now, since Khrymson has made accurate predictions as to the beginning of closed beta.

 

Khrymson, lets see if you can accurately predict Open Beta and/or Release thereof. 

 

EDIT: emote inserted.

linren

To x3r0h:

(I am going to stop quoting now cuz our discussion was getting a page long LOL)

Yeah, even as logical as our discussion are about when FFXIV is likely to be release, but the gamer in me is actually wishing it release like NOW.

TweFoju

ok so FFXIII is on 9th March and CB of XIV is on 11th

 

wow, that is kinda stuffed for those who were chosen to test the Beta, it's so hard to play both at the same time XD