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DC Universe is going to be Bigger then WoW?
JestorRodo
Member UncommonPosts: 2,642
From : http://www.rttnews.com/Content/TopStories.aspx?Id=1335243&SM=1
(RTTNews) - While Activision Blizzard, Inc.'s (ATVI) World of Warcraft has long been the top dog in the world of massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs), boasting 11.5 million subscribers, the fantasy world of Azeroth could finally face some serious competition from Sony Online Entertainment's DC Universe Online.
Benefiting from the built-in fan base of DC comics as well as the recent resurgence of the popularity of super heroes, DC Universe Online could also attract subscribers with an interesting combination of action and role-playing elements as demonstrated at the Electronic Entertainment Expo in Los Angeles. ENDQUOTE
I doubt that highly
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Honestly I wish it would be but to be honest it never will.
I hope the game is a huge success, but it wont beat WoW because atleast 6 million people on WoW wont quit it because they have time invested into it, I know for some reason alot of people wont buy it because it is cross platform and that turns some people off of it, and the superhero setting isnt the most popular amongst MMOs, City of heroes at its prime had only 200k subscribers, Champions did nowhere near that. Yeah the DC name will bring in people who dont normally play MMOs, but not near 11.5 million haha.
Also, DCUO does all announcements through facebook, 20k fans on there, not that many. And on MMORPG.com its not near the top 10 in hype, and on gamespot its like number 28 on ps3, and number 150 on PC, thats not exactly a WoW beater.
Mystery Bounty
I agree with your numbers and findings.
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I've read some study about the mmo market, stating that some 90% or more of the people are into fantasy mmo's.
Plus, my personal opinion on the game is pretty bad as far as what I've seen about it goes.
Take the Magic: The Gathering 'What Color Are You?' Quiz.
So far about the only real MMO that has a chance (if done right) to put any kind of dent in WoW armor will be SW:ToR (Star Wars The old Republic).
DC may give Champions and CoH/CoV a run, otherwise thats about it.
To be honest I highly doubt this game will get over 200k subs.
A year from now it'll have around 200K subs. Same fate as every game dubbed a "WoW killer". DC may be popular, but it's way too niche to even dream about unseating WoW.
If they had gone F2P, they could have had a million+ players, IMVHO.
there are already a number of superhero games out, unless DCU can bring in something that is better than CoH/CoV... then its going to be just another CO.. lucky if it gets even 100k with likely figures around 40 -60k .. . but thats only if the game is halfway decent. F2P would probably have garnered a little more initial interest.. but.. as F2P isnt really F2P most of the time, then retention would also be an issue there too. sorry but imo, this game has mediocrity stamped all over it.. i just can't see it getting anywhere..
That's a good point about the resemblance to CO. The resemblance is more than a small one, and if that is the case, if DC proves to be CO with DC characters, it'll be a miserable fail.
its going to be worse then that , The player charcters have to play as wannabe sidekicks to the Main NPC DC heroes. That sounds like you will start as a second rate player with nowhere to go except to ride the capetails of the NPC heroes. ZZZZZZZ
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I think the game will last a long time becouse of the steady comic book fanbase but it will be nowehere near WoW numbers. Also I am not sure how different it is from Champions Online, which is not doing as well as people expected prior to release. One thing I am curious about is how DCs character customisation compares to that of CO.
Until you find a game, story, lore, movie, or something else that is as big in the US/Europe as it is in asia (see warcraft/starcraft...), you will be extremely hard pressed to ever top WoW because of well more then half the player base being over there.
DCUO is still pretty much a mystery. They have avoided to create much hype as last year games did. That could be a good sign of seriousness or a bad sign of not really prepared. I am not going to make preconceptions, at least until open beta, so I will give it a fair try.
About the relation to wow numbers, wow is the ms windows of mmos, pretty good but not necessarily awesome but almost everybody at some point has played it. Superhero games are not as popular as sword and magic, I think the power of DC or Marvel to attract fans to videogames is a bit overrated. It might have good numbers but not great.
Anyway, I wish them luck, the better the game the happier everybody will be.
I think they have to tackle COH first.
The vast majority of gaming "news" isn't -- it's just regurgitated press releases, and since the only game most people outside the inner circle of hardcore MMORPGers have heard of is WoW, it's required by law to make a comparison to it.
It's extraordinarily unlikely DCUO will get one-tenth of WoW's subscriber base, but that's still pretty good... it would be over a million if they did so. 300K to 500K is a smashing success. If they seriously expect more than that, they're greatly deluded and I certainly hope they didn't budget based on a sustainable million+ subscription base. (They might sell 500K to 750K or even a million boxes, but they'll lose more than 50% after the first month if the typical pattern is followed.)
The idea that a game has to be a "WoW killer" or "bigger than WoW" or whatever to be a success is just plain stupid; the idea that you'll cheer for any game that isn't WoW just because you want to show how cool you are by not liking what everyone else likes (except that, on these forums, you're showing what a mindless conformist you are because hating WoW is what you're SUPPOSED to do here) just marks you as a moron.
DCUO may be a great game, or a lousy one, but it needs to be judged entirely on itself -- it cannot and should not be judged on how well it competes with other games. If it will "kill" anything, it will kill CO or COH/V, because who wants to hang out in fake comic book universes when you can hang out in a real one? Even if it offered the exact same gameplay as either of those, it would win on license alone; it would have to be an extremely poor game to not seriously dent one or both of their subscriber bases. (Which it may turn out to be. Or it may turn out NOT to be. We do not know, and right now, speculation is 99% people projecting their wishes and trying to pretend they're facts. If you WANT it to succeed, you will decide, based on no hard data, that it's a good game. If you want it to fail, you will decide it's a bad game. You will ignore all evidence to the contrary, because what matters in your mind is what you WANT to be true, not what IS true. I blame the public schools.)
At this point, based on what little I've seen, it's on my "watch closely and consider buying, will update opinion as new data comes in" list. The bits and pieces I've seen show promise and potential, with no evident deal killers for me (such as a pure twitch interface) yet. We shall see what develops.
What all superhero/villian games need is alter-egos. I am not sure how they have released so many superhero games with no option to have an alter ego.
Everybody knows that what makes a game succesful is content and lots of fluff. If the gameplay is solid and has lots of content and things to do within the game (a.k.a fluff) then it will work. I not then people will get bored and leave, even if the game is bug-free and has good mechanics.
I think with alter-ego's the developers assume that you are your alter ego, what you do in the real world is the real you and when you log in its your superhero, I wouldnt mind the idea of having an in-game alter-ego but only if they had like day jobs you could do to earn money and search, would be fun.
Mystery Bounty
You really can't do alter-ego/secret ID stuff in an MMORPG. What do you expect people to do?
Quest: You have to photograph four couples at the park, Peter! Turn them in to JJJ and you'll get 50.00![1]
This is the sort of thing which works in paper & pencil RPGs, where the DM can have a lot of fun causing you to miss your date with your girlfriend because Dr. Death is rampaging through downtown, or make you constantly sweat when you might expose your secret ID. This is part of why tabletop games will never be fully replaced by MMORPGs, so long as there's people who want more than pixels and algorithms can provide.
Different mediums require different approaches. The best superhero tabletop RPGs, such as Champions (only vaguely related, mechanically, to CO) include essays on things which work in comics that don't work in games - such as splitting the party (one player has fun for an hour while everyone else is bored, repeat), or highly mixed power levels in the same group. (In the comics, Superman (who can fly faster than light and juggle battleships) and Hawkman (who can... fly. A bit.) co-star in the Justice League and Author Fiat makes sure they both have something to do. In a comic-book tabletop game, this doesn't work -- the guy playing Superman will be able to do everything the guy playing Hawkman can do, a hundred times better.
I need to start writing a list of "common fallacies of online MMO arguments", one among which is "assuming something that works in a book, movie, tv show, comic book, or single player game can work just the same way in an MMO".
[1]This might work in a single player game where you pick from 6 to 10 stock characters. But unless you have something like "Secret Identity Classes" with their own levels, skills, quests, etc, and each player picks one, (like a "Crafting" class, in a way), it couldn't really work in an MMO. But... you know... that idea of a "secret ID class" which has parallel development that unlocks special benefits, achievements, even new costume pieces... that's... workable, if I do say so myself... Hmmm.
Maybe. Dont think so... tho...
Hey, tho. Anyone know can PC/PS3 play together?
No, it was confirmed in the TTH interview that they will be segregated.
I want a mmorpg where people have gone through misery, have gone through school stuff and actually have had sex even. -sagil
grr.
Does the world really want / need another superhero MMO? Isn't two enough?
Oh yea, and SOE is the devil. Don't forget all the people who hate SOE and refuse to buy another game they have their hands in.
Currently Playing: DAOC Uthgard
Previously Played: UO, DAOC, Shadowbane, AC2, SWG, Horizons, COX, WOW, EQ2, LOTRO, AOC, WAR, Vanguard, Rift, SWTOR, ESO, GW2.
Mibbster
DC was an OK producer of comics growing up in 70s/80s. My favorite title in mid 80s being Alan Moores Swamp Thing, And enjoyed Wolfman/Perez on New Teen Titans when it first come out. Even so, Marvel was the big dogs back then(unsure about nowadays, as havent picked up a comic in 20 yrs).
That said, a realiistic Marvel MMO(not the kiddie one they have coming out) would go over great sub-wise I would imagine. X-Men, Spider-Man, Punisher, Fantastic Four, Iron Man, Hulk, Daredevil, and Wolverine's Xmen Origins have all done pretty well the last 10 yrs at movies. There will be Thor and Captain America done very soon as well.
That is a lot of name recognition to draw upon for an MMO.
If I could make a Marvel MMO, I would go the route of Bioware with TOR. Have every Marvel character available to folks as private henchmen to utilize in private stories(instances). Huge open world for the MMO aspect. It would probably cost a lot more than 150M considering all the MMO characters that would need to be voiced.
IMO it would be a smash hit to more than just comic fans.
Seeing as a realiztic Marvel MMO isnt going to go down, that leaves the Comic MMO scene ready for DCU to take over. As someone else stated, it will take SOE totally screwing up for this game to fail. It should nail down the comic niche pretty good.
Probably around 200-ish K subs between PC and PS3. Perhaps 300k if a really good game, but would need to see it before I would give it that type of mark. Unsure what the licensing cost from DC is on their IP, but doubt it is any worse than SOE was paying to LA.. Hopefully 200k will cut it.
I will be picking up the pre-order for PS3, so as to grab bonus. Wont be getting a PS3 for a few more months though after game launches. GoW3 is supposed to be on sale this week for 30, so gonna be picking up a few titles between now and time I do get a PS3(we have four 360s in house).
Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.
QFT I was interested in this game till I found that it's from SOE I stopped reading there.
doubt it. super hero MMO's don't seem to do that well. i personally would prefer a fantasy or sci-fi setting over super heros. it's weird too cause you would think people would like playing as some guy with lasers comming outa his eyes. =P