This shows that marketing and hype can drive an amazing amount of traffic to a game, and that mmo players are extremely interested in NEW products. However, it also shows that MMO players are not willing to stick around if the game is not good, or appealing to them.
This shows that marketing and hype can drive an amazing amount of traffic to a game, and that mmo players are extremely interested in NEW products. However, it also shows that MMO players are not willing to stick around if the game is not good, or appealing to them.
Forget preorders. Focus on how many subscribers FFXIV will have one year from now. I bet you anything it will be more than Warhammer and Aoc had after one year.
Aion is slightly different, it still has strong numbers but it is slowly going downhil. It is constantly losing subs. Compare that to FFXI'S progression. It slowly peaked up to 500-700k subscribers and maintained it for EIGHT YEARS.
FFXIV is going to be just like FFXI. IT won't start with a bang, and it won't end in a whimper. Other games may have a faster start, but FFXIV has a longer stride.
Yeah, FFXI reached the 500K subscribers mark in 2007, 5 years after it was released. Just google it and you will find plenty of references. Here is one (taken randomely) for example :
That puts it slightly below EvE and LOTRO but above AoC and WAR. Not bad. Then again that was 2007, I'd be curious to see more current numbers.
Aoc and Warhammer were western mmo's that flopped in teh west. They had no eastern appeal so that's why you see their abyssmal numbers.
Now take FFXIV, it has much more of a playerbase and fanboi base in the west. It will also be very popular in the east. I really don't see FFXIV dipping below 400k, ever. Yeah, it's not a wow killer, but "failure" it is not.
I still feel that FFXIV will have 700k+ subs one year from now, with two thirds of its player base comming from the east (Asia).
So 250k NA / EU subs...which puts it below LOTRO and EvE and just slightly above or equal with AoC and WAR.
Last sub numbers I got from war was 300k and dropping, that was last year. Asian subs are pretty meaningless with the NA market, as what they like most NA folks dont, so focusing on PURE NA and EU numbers here only.
You also said FFOnline had a big following here, Id say it was a fairly small niche, which seems to be where FFXIV is headed. Dont get me wrong, I personally prefer niche games, as unlike some of the triple A titles you usually know what you are getting and the development is focused on where its targeted for instead of try to apease all demographics.
However, that being said, I think FF14 is probably going to slide in around 200k NA / EU subs in a year.
I don't know if you can ignore Asia numbers. The game is designed for the Japanese console market whereas Aoc and Warhammer were desigend specifically for the Western market.
For a game like FFXIV to have equal numbers in NA/EU as games designed for that market is an accomplishment. If FFXIV gets 500k subs in asia, to ignore that would be to ignore the elephant in the room. I would agree with you if FFXIV was designed for the western market and it only got 200k subs. I consider that an utter failure. If a game is designed for a certain nich audiance and that audiance is 700k worldwide, that's a success in my book. that's certainly a success financially.
Comments
Forget preorders. Focus on how many subscribers FFXIV will have one year from now. I bet you anything it will be more than Warhammer and Aoc had after one year.
Aion is slightly different, it still has strong numbers but it is slowly going downhil. It is constantly losing subs. Compare that to FFXI'S progression. It slowly peaked up to 500-700k subscribers and maintained it for EIGHT YEARS.
FFXIV is going to be just like FFXI. IT won't start with a bang, and it won't end in a whimper. Other games may have a faster start, but FFXIV has a longer stride.
Wasnt aware SquareEnix ever released population numbers. Do you have a link to 500k? Im assuming that mainly Asian subscribers.
Yeah, FFXI reached the 500K subscribers mark in 2007, 5 years after it was released. Just google it and you will find plenty of references. Here is one (taken randomely) for example :
http://www.playstatic.com/news/1055
So 250k NA / Euro subscribers.
That puts it slightly below EvE and LOTRO but above AoC and WAR. Not bad. Then again that was 2007, I'd be curious to see more current numbers.
Aoc and Warhammer were western mmo's that flopped in teh west. They had no eastern appeal so that's why you see their abyssmal numbers.
Now take FFXIV, it has much more of a playerbase and fanboi base in the west. It will also be very popular in the east. I really don't see FFXIV dipping below 400k, ever. Yeah, it's not a wow killer, but "failure" it is not.
I still feel that FFXIV will have 700k+ subs one year from now, with two thirds of its player base comming from the east (Asia).
So 250k NA / EU subs...which puts it below LOTRO and EvE and just slightly above or equal with AoC and WAR.
Last sub numbers I got from war was 300k and dropping, that was last year. Asian subs are pretty meaningless with the NA market, as what they like most NA folks dont, so focusing on PURE NA and EU numbers here only.
You also said FFOnline had a big following here, Id say it was a fairly small niche, which seems to be where FFXIV is headed. Dont get me wrong, I personally prefer niche games, as unlike some of the triple A titles you usually know what you are getting and the development is focused on where its targeted for instead of try to apease all demographics.
However, that being said, I think FF14 is probably going to slide in around 200k NA / EU subs in a year.
I don't know if you can ignore Asia numbers. The game is designed for the Japanese console market whereas Aoc and Warhammer were desigend specifically for the Western market.
For a game like FFXIV to have equal numbers in NA/EU as games designed for that market is an accomplishment. If FFXIV gets 500k subs in asia, to ignore that would be to ignore the elephant in the room. I would agree with you if FFXIV was designed for the western market and it only got 200k subs. I consider that an utter failure. If a game is designed for a certain nich audiance and that audiance is 700k worldwide, that's a success in my book. that's certainly a success financially.