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They aren't taking much of a risk...
choujiofkono
Member Posts: 852
In my opinion they aren't taking much of a risk with TOR. The MMO Genre is fully matured (even stagnant lol) and the SW storylines go far and above those found in the movies. The books have a lot of good stories in them and the potential for this game in just theory is huge. The SW movies were some of the highest grossing movies of all time and even putting the money aside that's a lot of memories for people and their children. No company could ask for a better chance than this at a successful MMO. If I were you guys I wouldn't get caught up in what others say this far ahead of release. I will also say I think where you are from makes a difference.
Here is a chart for the top 10 highest grossing movies with adjustments for inflation:
http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/records/
"I'm not cheap I'm incredibly subconsciously financially optimized"
"The worst part of censorship is ------------------"
Comments
I personally don't worry about what the naysayers have to say, let's face it this community is no "crystal ball" they have roundly jumped up to declare a thousand games will change the genre for no other reason than the inner excitement they get upon reading a press release, which is evident in the sheer amount of those games that they have roundly trashed then abandoned when it didn't deliver what they wanted it to.
But I do enjoy debating flawed logic used to make assumptions about any game (not just TOR).
but yeah, to call this game Fantastic is like calling Twilight the Godfather of vampire movies....
Odd list as Avatar almost made 3 billion.
Dont see how a movie makes an succesful mmo though.
Avatar made 3 billion worldwide, this list is US only. Plus it's adjusted for inflation. When Star Wars came out, the average ticket price wasn't 9 bucks like it is now.
All he's doing is trying to show the mass appeal of the Star Wars IP.
Generally it does it the same way a movie makes a successful single player game. The ip has a built in market of those who went to the movies and enjoyed them, I for one can say that my first mmorpg was Star Wars Galaxies and I just don't see myself even making the leap to p2p mmorpg's if not for the fact that STAR WARS was a must have for me at that time in my life.
but yeah, to call this game Fantastic is like calling Twilight the Godfather of vampire movies....
Tell that to Turbine with 1 of the biggest IP's in mmo and ofc SWG aint to big either.
That single player games sell is true i guess, its just 1 buy though and dusnt need to hold subs, besides mostly they are crap as well
Cant think of many single player games based on movies thats actually a good game.
Avatar destroyed at the box office, people just like to rag on it because it was the first 3d movie and some folks think 3d is a gimmick. It is a gimmick... a gimmick that makes billions of dollars a year. They WIN. LoL.
" Dont see how a movie makes an succesful mmo though. "
LoL We aren't talking a MMO about some no name movie with a stuffy storyline we are talking about a whole set of movies that span a couple generations and contain hundreds of thousands of hours of lore when you consider the books, comics, etc.
Add to that the fact that the marketing for SW is already some of the largest in the world of any IP and you have the largest built in fanbase of anything I would imagine.
"I'm not cheap I'm incredibly subconsciously financially optimized"
"The worst part of censorship is ------------------"
At the end of the day as long as TOR isn't a bug ridden disaster it will be a success and everyone pretty much knows that lol. Most of the complaining stems from people getting impatient, some has to do with the fact that others are wanting a SWG2 and the rest is mainly from people looking for an MMO to call home and TOR is close but not exactly what they want.
It's near impossible for TOR to fail. It's got a massive IP which has it's own fanbase, SW is a mix of fantasy and scifi at least in it's elements so it's not as hard for people to make the leap, Bioware has it's own fanbase, and the focus on story and the mass appeal approach by allowing solo and group play to both be viable as well as catering to both PvP'rs and PvE'rs. Then to top it all off they have EA's marketing department which is second only to Blizzard.
No one in their right mind honestly doesn't think this will be a success as long as it isn't a bug ridden disaster.
And this is coming from someone that has zero interest in playing TOR lol. I am a Bioware fan though so I'm keeping tabs on this one because I want to see how *Bioware* story plays out since this will likely lead to another Bioware MMO down the road.
Edited: HAHAHA thats a first for me I put Blizzard instead of Bioware LOLOL. Corrected lol.
Yeah but Gray you have always been one of the more sensible posters on this site, you are the exception not the rule. Believe you me many of these folks genuinely feel and hope this game will flop like a fish out of water.
Then there are players like myself who enjoy story, Star Wars, and Bioware and I agree as long as the game isn't a bug ridden mess it will be a success, I even anticipate I will enjoy what I get out of it.
but yeah, to call this game Fantastic is like calling Twilight the Godfather of vampire movies....
The list isn't accurate overall (looks like a list of post 1975 or so only - Gone With The Wind is still #1 at about 1.6 billion domestic adjusted - http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm), but the list was supposed to be domestic only (Avatar made about 3/4 of a billion domestically). The international list doesn't support his point as well (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/).
More importantly, I agree with the sentiment that the success of a movie has little to do with the success of any game (much less an MMO). There have already been tons of Star Wars games...most of which tanked, some of which shined (I really miss Tie Fighter). In the end, the success of the game has more to do with the quality of the play than the IP. The IP will definitely get people interested, but the game play will determine if / how many will stay and pay.
Well that largest built fanbase aint to keen on Star Wars Galaxies for example.
Not saying Bioware wont deliver but beforehand saying TOR will be a guarenteed succes dusnt work for me
Also with an IP like star wars you take a huge risk, screw up the lore one way or another and you screw your playerbase
you just dont get the freedom in game design then an own ip gives you.
You beat me to it Unbound. I knew Gone with the Wind was number 1 still by a long shot.
You got to remeber it was the first film to be released in color in 1939! Well Wizard of Oz had partial color released a few months before Gone with the Wind, but a fully featured color was Gone with the Wind.
Everyone knows the hype that Avatar received for its visuals and was the major draw for the movie (personally I enjoyed the movie as well), but can you imagine what the draw would have been for a film in full color in 1939?
I don't think the numbers for movies older than 77' are relevant lol. I don't think there are a lot of Gone With the Wind fanbois that are going to want to play MMO's LoL Don't get me wrong, some maybe.. but not enough to matter.
I also don't think numbers outside the US matter either. If the world at large ignores TOR but it is a smash success in the US then the game will certainly keep thriving. That's how I look at it. The world's MMO players are going to want to play also though in my opinion. This was just an example.
"I'm not cheap I'm incredibly subconsciously financially optimized"
"The worst part of censorship is ------------------"
As with everything, it'll just depend on the quality of the game itself.
We'll just have to wait and see until we get our hands on it.
I'm fairly confident this game will sell a large number of boxes initially though, there is no reason not to assume that, as it was the case with all new releases up to this point.
Feel free to use my referral link for SW:TOR if you want to test out the game. You'll get some special unlocks!
Well that is whole different story in itself. SWG had a very solid player base. That was until they decided to unleash the NGE without any player input, testing or community "This is what we are planning to update" phase. To log in one day and find your Creature Handler that you spent months, years to develop is gone with the UI being changed completely among many other things, does something to your sanity. Had they not done that, who knows where SWG would be right now. So I wouldn't use that as an example.
Actually SWG's playerbase always fell far short of expectations. They were actually losing subscriptions at a steady rate once WoW and EQ2 were released. The game simply wasn't up to snuff. This is why LA and SOE felt they had to implement the NGE in the first place.
I know a lot of people on these forums seem to think SWG was some perfect game, but it was never a success in the eyes of its creators... or the public at large who preferred WoW. With an IP like Star Wars, the sky was the limit... and they could never really get off the ground.
It was a sandbox game, nothing like the mechanics of WOW. So yes, they should have seen the fact that it was going to be a niche group of players. I mean how many people now do you hear clamoring for a sandbox game? And for those who liked sandbox games, it was perfect. The reason why they implemented NGE and the CU was to make it more like WOW in hopes of increasing their numbers. SOE and the developers were never on pair with the players. And because of that simple breakdown, the game fell hard. The problem with those who played WOW is that they wanted every game to be like WOW but not like WOW. That is a hard formula to recreate. But you can't yawn at having nearly 400k in subscribers which was bigger than EQ before the whole WOW experience.
Those figures are incorrect. At its peak SWG had about 300k subs, EQ had 450k at its peak.
And as some SOE SWG people stated, they were losing around 10k subs on average per month before NGE hit, they were already down to near 200k when the NGE hit.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Please state where you got those numbers. Because at the time where SWG was at it's peak, it was nearly 400k, not 300k.
And what SOE SWG people stated that? They kept a lid of how many subs they were losing before NGE came out. No one outside of SOE knew the numbers and they weren't going to state it in the media of any sorts. We have estimates after the NGE came out, but SOE never gave numbers.
I'm not sure how the movie industry is an example for Star Wars: The Old Rebublic. By that logic alone, we could assume that any Star Wars game ever made has its success/failures written as a result of the movies and not the actual games.
Whether you want to believe it or not, Games are a subculture that isn't entirely embraced. When you go out on a date it is acceptable to talk about movies. When you go out on a date, it isn't acceptable to talk about how awesome your level 80 Tauren Enhancement Shaman is at raiding ICC. Basically, what I mean is that games haven't completely come around to become standard fair for most people. Sure, things like Kinect and the Wii are changing people's view, to the point that talking about the Wii is about as normal as talking about Fringe or some other TV show, but as far as MMORPGs are concerned, many people still feel weird talking about them in public.
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As others probably already said, SWG didn't exactly break any records(maybe the record for number of bugs/unfinished content?) when it launched. While popular on CN, the Clone Wars isn't exactly dominating TV ratings.
The IP is big, but not so big that folks will just latch on and pay 15 bucks a month just for the sake of it.
All that said, I'm fairly confident that they'll at least make their money back. Whether they retain enough subs to stay afloat is another matter.
Cyphers is speaking of widely accepted estimates of subs that are found at sites like this one....
http://www.mmogchart.com/Chart2.html
Never in its heyday did SOE announce that SWG was the number one NA MMO. That honor belonged to EQ, for years, until WoW beat it out.
If you wish to converse this stuff, then do yourself the favor, and look up facts.
Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.
exactly.
all the IP does is create hype that might translate into more box sales.
but nothing will make up for a broken or badly created game in the long run.
the idea will always be to keep the game running for as long as possible with as many customers as possible, regardless if their break-even point has been already achieved.
nowadays people are more demanding with their games - in terms of polish that is (the opposite is true for mentally challenging gameplay), so there is always a big risk on mmo's given the complexity to keep them polished and balanced in today's competitive gaming market.
I agree with you on the polish issue Troneas.
It is rather silly when you see games like FF 14 getting razzed on the polish level. It should be a no-brainer at this point.
Any game launched as a buggy mess deserves to crash & burn.
Asking Devs to make AAA sandbox titles is like trying to get fine dining on a McDonalds dollar menu budget.
ET, Raiders of the Lost Arc, Jurassic Park where great movies back in the day, but that doesn't mean they will make the best MMo ever. I liked Goonies, NLP X-mas vacation? Should they make that an MMO?
Hell back in the day SWG generated some buzz, but it failed mass appeal even being a Star Wars MMO. What I read on my local 501st was telling. Out of like 30k members, only 8 people were actually anticipating SWG, most were discouraged by the fact that you had to pay a subscription, and the fact their computers would most likely never run it. This was years ago, but the fact remains, most Star Wars fans I know could care less about games.
I’ve asked many of em,
every play SWG? Looking forward to TOR?
What is that? They answer?
It’s an MMO game.
Oh, I only read books and watch the movies.
My point is, just because a movie does well at the box office, doesn’t mean it’s gonna do well as an MMO. There has never been a movies based on WoW, or Guild Wars, yet each has 6-10 million people worldwide playing. What happened to Star Gate Universe? Dead, STO, LOTRO, AOC? Dead…. No mater how they made these games, they would have failed with the hardcore fans. TBH games based on movies actually have a tougher time selling than those based on existing lore; which has always been game lore. Why? Because of expectations on canon and sticking with lore. You either get a crap themepark, or stuff that just mutilates the lore, either way people want to remember their favorite movie how it was when they saw it, and they don’t need games to do that, or ruin it for them.
Agree - and also the Harry Potter movie franchise has now apparently out-earned the SW franchise too.