It sure will be huge. Look at Star Trek online, people bought the box in droves... despite being utter garbage for an mmo it was a 'success'. The IP alone will ensure massive box sales, Bioware's rep will further enhance that. I feel Old Republic will be a game similar to Rift, being what it does it will do very very well. I doubt there will be anything groundbreaking there but it will at the very least be a solid competant mmo. It will most likely *not* be SWG reborn, in that no innovative gameplay or boundaries will be pushed. It looks to be completely 'theme-park' not 'sand-box' and no amount of wishing is going to change that.
However, Biowares complete disregard to gamer feedback and their arrogance towards us lowly subscribers seems to mean they are going to put out an MMO that fits 'their' vision, not one that MMO players want and will pay for. There are going to be a lot of MMO players that will eventually wonder why they are paying money each month to play the single player game that Bioware is creating. When that happens, no more money.
Unless all the news that we've heard and seen is somehow off base, this game's collapse is going to be a block buster.
I dont get why people think bioware is making a mistake by making an MMO in there vision? They have brought us great single player RPG's for years, 90% of people that have played a RPG in the last 10 years played a bioware one and beat it, and then told there friends about it and discussed it with there friend.
I strongly feel that bioware is making a great move by doing an MMO the way they are, sure it may be more focused to single player, but just think you now can experiance that single player campain with your friends and enjoy cinamantic moments at the same time instead of going, hey have you gotten to the part where such and such dies? oh no? crap just ruined the game for you haha!
Also, I feel complaints about how there will be a lack of replayablity is just crap. I know personaly I have beaten KotOR 1 and 2 atleast twice each, Dragon Age Orgians 3 times, Mass Effect 3 times, and Mass effect 2 twice, and Ill be out there ready to buy the new games when they come out shortly. Bioware is great about making a solo game replayable, and I see them not having an issue of doing that with Old Republic.
Like I said, I go into this game viewing it as a Bioware RPG that I can experiance with my friends, and thats what is going to make it great for me, if I get raids and pvp events that are enjoyable end game content thats now just bonus. I only hope that the game will provide a fun challange and as long as that happens I have no worries for this game, cause I know bioware can make a great RPG.
However, Biowares complete disregard to gamer feedback and their arrogance towards us lowly subscribers seems to mean they are going to put out an MMO that fits 'their' vision, not one that MMO players want and will pay for. There are going to be a lot of MMO players that will eventually wonder why they are paying money each month to play the single player game that Bioware is creating. When that happens, no more money.
Unless all the news that we've heard and seen is somehow off base, this game's collapse is going to be a block buster.
Er, mean to type "However, Biowares complete disregard to gamer feedback and their arrogance towards us lowly subscribers seems to mean they are going to put out an MMO that fits 'their' vision, not one that MMO players want and will pay for."
This is a good thing and this is what makes every piece from Bioware a work of art. Commercialization is what destroys such art.
Yeah, because launch day DLC, shoddy ports, and pre order bonuses in all of Bioware's "new" games (with the same recycled stoyline since Baldur's Gate 2) are really art, right?
This will be the next MMO Juggernaut. Its Star Wars and if Bioware makes an MMO thats just up to standards of todays top MMO's it will do well. Make it only slightly better and it will be huge. IMO Bioware will do a great job with this much like Blizzard did in making their first MMO.
That's what people said about Star Wars Galaxies.
It was Star Wars
and it was made by the guys that made EverQuest, the most earth shaking MMO success to date.
Better then what most games give anyhow. Least thats the way i see it.
Most games seem to just copy WoW, and get further and further away from what MMOs are each year. This seems to be doing that to a T-even promoting solo play more than any "MMO" to date.
However, Biowares complete disregard to gamer feedback and their arrogance towards us lowly subscribers seems to mean they are going to put out an MMO that fits 'their' vision, not one that MMO players want and will pay for. There are going to be a lot of MMO players that will eventually wonder why they are paying money each month to play the single player game that Bioware is creating. When that happens, no more money.
Unless all the news that we've heard and seen is somehow off base, this game's collapse is going to be a block buster.
Er, mean to type "However, Biowares complete disregard to gamer feedback and their arrogance towards us lowly subscribers seems to mean they are going to put out an MMO that fits 'their' vision, not one that MMO players want and will pay for."
This is a good thing and this is what makes every piece from Bioware a work of art. Commercialization is what destroys such art.
Yeah, because launch day DLC, shoddy ports, and pre order bonuses in all of Bioware's "new" games (with the same recycled stoyline since Baldur's Gate 2) are really art, right?
I think thats really skirting the subject, and also going off topic. Its obvious BioWare titles easily reach in the multi-millions mark per-platform. 500K to turn a profit seems do-able - especially if you consider the size and scope of what the developers are professing.
BioWares RPGs are trend-setters, and you often see other games emulating that style, many of which even going as far as using BioWares engines to create their games.
While my idea of a game being respected artistically will differ greatly from one to the next (as most art does) I find that developers should be resolute in their abilities to provide games to the public without having question whether or not their ideas are worthy of production based on a number of separate and biased responses. BioWare seems to know their market well, and with the newest information on what will keep this game profitable, I think they won't have to try that hard to accomplish their goals based on their current success rankings.
However, Biowares complete disregard to gamer feedback and their arrogance towards us lowly subscribers seems to mean they are going to put out an MMO that fits 'their' vision, not one that MMO players want and will pay for. There are going to be a lot of MMO players that will eventually wonder why they are paying money each month to play the single player game that Bioware is creating. When that happens, no more money.
Unless all the news that we've heard and seen is somehow off base, this game's collapse is going to be a block buster.
Er, mean to type "However, Biowares complete disregard to gamer feedback and their arrogance towards us lowly subscribers seems to mean they are going to put out an MMO that fits 'their' vision, not one that MMO players want and will pay for."
This is a good thing and this is what makes every piece from Bioware a work of art. Commercialization is what destroys such art.
Yeah, because launch day DLC, shoddy ports, and pre order bonuses in all of Bioware's "new" games (with the same recycled stoyline since Baldur's Gate 2) are really art, right?
I think thats really skirting the subject, and also going off topic. Its obvious BioWare titles easily reach in the multi-millions mark per-platform. 500K to turn a profit seems do-able - especially if you consider the size and scope of what the developers are professing.
BioWares RPGs are trend-setters, and you often see other games emulating that style, many of which even going as far as using BioWares engines to create their games.
While my idea of a game being respected artistically will differ greatly from one to the next (as most art does) I find that developers should be resolute in their abilities to provide games to the public without having question whether or not their ideas are worthy of production based on a number of separate and biased responses. BioWare seems to know their market well, and with the newest information on what will keep this game profitable, I think they won't have to try that hard to accomplish their goals based on their current success rankings.
That's not 500k box sales. That's 500k subscribers. This game will probably appeal to those who don't like MMOs quite a bit, but since it's designed as a singleplayer game, the content is going to run out, and then the people who don't like MMOs (the target audience) will leave.
While my idea of a game being respected artistically will differ greatly from one to the next (as most art does) I find that developers should be resolute in their abilities to provide games to the public without having question whether or not their ideas are worthy of production based on a number of separate and biased responses. BioWare seems to know their market well, and with the newest information on what will keep this game profitable, I think they won't have to try that hard to accomplish their goals based on their current success rankings.
That's not 500k box sales. That's 500k subscribers. This game will probably appeal to those who don't like MMOs quite a bit, but since it's designed as a singleplayer game, the content is going to run out, and then the people who don't like MMOs (the target audience) will leave.
This game was not designed as a single player game. Currently, the content slated to be in the game far surpasses most MMOs currently on the market. Even those that only decide to solo the personal stories will likely stay multiple months as each story is different and the choices made could take a single character down very different paths.
::edit:: and I was basing it off of 500K subsribers, not box sales, I feel BioWare will easily double or triple that amount within its first couple months as per the usual BioWare PC title sales.
I'll note that he doesn't say how LONG it would take to recoup development costs at 500K subscribers which is the key thing that any investor would be interested. That article really doesn't provide much valuable information. Is 500K the level at which income outstrips operating costs....or is it some increment above that?
The thing with MMO's (essentialy ANY entertainment product) is that they tend to be high risk investments... there are too many variables and too many things that can go wrong. Investors in high risk properties general want a very healthy return on investment and they want it in a relatively short period of time.... otherwise it just tends to not be worth the risk. So I wonder what target level of subs it would take for the investors to feel the investment was satisfied?
Honestly I always take CFO's issuing vague public statements like that with a grain of salt. There usualy is some motive behind what they are saying and a fair amount of spin.
I'll take what an independant analyst says over that any day....especialy if the analyst is working for actual investors and is privy to some of the internal data.
Anyways, it'll be interesting to see how things turn out....I have no doubt that TOR COULD pull in very much more then 500k subs. I am curious to see how thier long term retention will stack up. I don't think it's a given that TOR well end up a success... in fact I think it's a pretty big gamble that is being taken...but it could end up paying off well....we'll just have to see.
1,000,000 people buy $49 boxes. You are making back $49,000,000 right there. Assume that overall, 500,000 people subscribe for a year, at the nominal cost of $14, and you are up to $133,000,000 in year 1. It is fair to say this game could be in the $1,000,000 in development costs. Odds rather favor it. If it is technically sound at launch, meaning few bugs, and has a quality experience, I can see selling several million boxes, and if many quit in year 1, then they'll still see the equal of several million subscribers.
BUT......
The MMO world is fickle, and big-name flops are all around. And gameing bloggers are not the only ones hedging their bets. This PR move was intended to quash the growing body of Wall Street analysts who are looking at MMO history, and playing the odds. They are asking what will make SWTOR different, and that is something everybody would like to know.
No the Math doesn't work like that. Developers only realize a small fraction of each box sale in GROSS income. The vast majority of it is eaten up by retailers, wholsalers, distributors, physical production costs, etc. Not to mention with established IP's, you then have the IP holder skimming thier portion off any sale/sub you make in royalties.... God only knows what sort of deal Lucas has made.
It's actualy one of the reasons why it's a viable business model for Developers (particularly smaller ones) to offer digital distribution at a significantly reduced price...or in many cases simply give away the client for free. The lion's share of an MMO's proffit comes in monthly subs (or the RMT equivalent for F2P's).... that's why you hear everyone talk about retention.
Dev's don't even usualy scratch the surface of recouping costs through box sales.
SPRPG's are different because they are so much cheaper to build and maintain that they don't need all that much off of each box sale to recoup costs.
I think this number is achieveable, the main worry is that there are various MMO's coming out now, so by the time SW:TOR is released, my educated guess would be that people who've paid for there current MMO's installation and subscription, time into there character, are probably not likely to just cancel it to buy SW:TOR and subscribe :-S
Im holding out for SW:TOR, there's a minority that might slate the game, but Bioware have added alot of content and effort, and from what ive seen in the videos for music, pvp, class progression, crafting, its looks like its going to be the best star wars game yet, and a good MMO even if your not a star wars fan.
Comments
It sure will be huge. Look at Star Trek online, people bought the box in droves... despite being utter garbage for an mmo it was a 'success'. The IP alone will ensure massive box sales, Bioware's rep will further enhance that. I feel Old Republic will be a game similar to Rift, being what it does it will do very very well. I doubt there will be anything groundbreaking there but it will at the very least be a solid competant mmo. It will most likely *not* be SWG reborn, in that no innovative gameplay or boundaries will be pushed. It looks to be completely 'theme-park' not 'sand-box' and no amount of wishing is going to change that.
I dont get why people think bioware is making a mistake by making an MMO in there vision? They have brought us great single player RPG's for years, 90% of people that have played a RPG in the last 10 years played a bioware one and beat it, and then told there friends about it and discussed it with there friend.
I strongly feel that bioware is making a great move by doing an MMO the way they are, sure it may be more focused to single player, but just think you now can experiance that single player campain with your friends and enjoy cinamantic moments at the same time instead of going, hey have you gotten to the part where such and such dies? oh no? crap just ruined the game for you haha!
Also, I feel complaints about how there will be a lack of replayablity is just crap. I know personaly I have beaten KotOR 1 and 2 atleast twice each, Dragon Age Orgians 3 times, Mass Effect 3 times, and Mass effect 2 twice, and Ill be out there ready to buy the new games when they come out shortly. Bioware is great about making a solo game replayable, and I see them not having an issue of doing that with Old Republic.
Like I said, I go into this game viewing it as a Bioware RPG that I can experiance with my friends, and thats what is going to make it great for me, if I get raids and pvp events that are enjoyable end game content thats now just bonus. I only hope that the game will provide a fun challange and as long as that happens I have no worries for this game, cause I know bioware can make a great RPG.
Yeah, because launch day DLC, shoddy ports, and pre order bonuses in all of Bioware's "new" games (with the same recycled stoyline since Baldur's Gate 2) are really art, right?
That's what people said about Star Wars Galaxies.
It was Star Wars
and it was made by the guys that made EverQuest, the most earth shaking MMO success to date.
Look what happened.
Better then what most games give anyhow. Least thats the way i see it.
Help me Bioware, you're my only hope.
Is ToR going to be good? Dude it's Bioware making a freaking star wars game, all signs point to awesome. -G4tv MMo report.
Most games seem to just copy WoW, and get further and further away from what MMOs are each year. This seems to be doing that to a T-even promoting solo play more than any "MMO" to date.
I think thats really skirting the subject, and also going off topic. Its obvious BioWare titles easily reach in the multi-millions mark per-platform. 500K to turn a profit seems do-able - especially if you consider the size and scope of what the developers are professing.
BioWares RPGs are trend-setters, and you often see other games emulating that style, many of which even going as far as using BioWares engines to create their games.
While my idea of a game being respected artistically will differ greatly from one to the next (as most art does) I find that developers should be resolute in their abilities to provide games to the public without having question whether or not their ideas are worthy of production based on a number of separate and biased responses. BioWare seems to know their market well, and with the newest information on what will keep this game profitable, I think they won't have to try that hard to accomplish their goals based on their current success rankings.
That's not 500k box sales. That's 500k subscribers. This game will probably appeal to those who don't like MMOs quite a bit, but since it's designed as a singleplayer game, the content is going to run out, and then the people who don't like MMOs (the target audience) will leave.
This game was not designed as a single player game. Currently, the content slated to be in the game far surpasses most MMOs currently on the market. Even those that only decide to solo the personal stories will likely stay multiple months as each story is different and the choices made could take a single character down very different paths.
::edit:: and I was basing it off of 500K subsribers, not box sales, I feel BioWare will easily double or triple that amount within its first couple months as per the usual BioWare PC title sales.
I'll note that he doesn't say how LONG it would take to recoup development costs at 500K subscribers which is the key thing that any investor would be interested. That article really doesn't provide much valuable information. Is 500K the level at which income outstrips operating costs....or is it some increment above that?
The thing with MMO's (essentialy ANY entertainment product) is that they tend to be high risk investments... there are too many variables and too many things that can go wrong. Investors in high risk properties general want a very healthy return on investment and they want it in a relatively short period of time.... otherwise it just tends to not be worth the risk. So I wonder what target level of subs it would take for the investors to feel the investment was satisfied?
Honestly I always take CFO's issuing vague public statements like that with a grain of salt. There usualy is some motive behind what they are saying and a fair amount of spin.
I'll take what an independant analyst says over that any day....especialy if the analyst is working for actual investors and is privy to some of the internal data.
Anyways, it'll be interesting to see how things turn out....I have no doubt that TOR COULD pull in very much more then 500k subs. I am curious to see how thier long term retention will stack up. I don't think it's a given that TOR well end up a success... in fact I think it's a pretty big gamble that is being taken...but it could end up paying off well....we'll just have to see.
No the Math doesn't work like that. Developers only realize a small fraction of each box sale in GROSS income. The vast majority of it is eaten up by retailers, wholsalers, distributors, physical production costs, etc. Not to mention with established IP's, you then have the IP holder skimming thier portion off any sale/sub you make in royalties.... God only knows what sort of deal Lucas has made.
It's actualy one of the reasons why it's a viable business model for Developers (particularly smaller ones) to offer digital distribution at a significantly reduced price...or in many cases simply give away the client for free. The lion's share of an MMO's proffit comes in monthly subs (or the RMT equivalent for F2P's).... that's why you hear everyone talk about retention.
Dev's don't even usualy scratch the surface of recouping costs through box sales.
SPRPG's are different because they are so much cheaper to build and maintain that they don't need all that much off of each box sale to recoup costs.
I think this number is achieveable, the main worry is that there are various MMO's coming out now, so by the time SW:TOR is released, my educated guess would be that people who've paid for there current MMO's installation and subscription, time into there character, are probably not likely to just cancel it to buy SW:TOR and subscribe :-S
Im holding out for SW:TOR, there's a minority that might slate the game, but Bioware have added alot of content and effort, and from what ive seen in the videos for music, pvp, class progression, crafting, its looks like its going to be the best star wars game yet, and a good MMO even if your not a star wars fan.