@OP: on the side, I don't what you're comparing with what, but at a quick glance your figures for Aion seem wrong. I didn't look at the other ones, so can't tell whether they're wrong too.
And I'm not sure Asian countries like Korea or China are represented fairly; for example I can't recall that WoW's Xfire figures rose dramatically when WotLK went live in China. Neither can I see TERA on the list, while I thought it was already live in Korea.
Next to that, a global Xfire trendline should be taken into account, namely could it be that over the whole line figures are slowly declining, bc of reasons as people replacing Xfire with Raptr for use.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
well the thing about statistics.. always ends with a quote.. lies, damned lies, and statistics.. you can prove anything you like with them.. if you apply them creatively.. as usually is the case.. for the record though, the number of people playing online games in 2007 was estimated to be 217 million.. http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2007/07/Worldwide_Online_Gaming_Grows im guessing there are a few more these days... at that point xfire had 18 million registered users, though only 200,000 were concurrent, or .. using the software.. if you base xfire on registered accounts (not actual users however) they had around 4 percent of the online community.. though interms of actual concurrent users, they only in fact.. had.. about 0.4 percent of the online community.. however that was 4 years ago.. is xfire more relevant to today.. or less... or was it ever?
I don't see why you want to compare Xfire concurrent users with total number of people playing online games, unless that was 217 million players that were concurrently playing games at that moment? Else you're comparing apples with oranges.
On the whole discussion of relevancy of statistics or samples etc... well, you can make it into a whole philosophical discussion about 'what is truth?' and such just for amusement, but sampling is being used in all kinds of studies and research projects, scorn or ridicule those people and studies all you like
The heart of the matter is interpretation, and how 'clean' your data is.
For example, I think it's fair to say that WoW and LotrO have taken a decline among Xfire users, and that Rift is played more than Aion or LotrO among XFire users.
The real question is, how representative are the Xfire figures and users for the whole playerbase?
Do they only represent the NA and EU players? Or also Asian players?
Does one game have more people among its playerbase that use Xfire than another game?
Or could more conclusions be drawn from the fact that LotrO has like 5% the number of Xfire users that WoW has, and Rift 15% of the number of XFire users that WoW has?
Questions like that
yup.. but it does kind of prove my point of statistics.. you can pretty much argue any kind of case using them.. and .. of course the percentage of players of any game that use xfire is very relevant.. particularly if its being compared to another game where the percentage of xfire users might not be as favourable, in which case the xfire statistics would be extremely misleading.. and as xfire itself doesnt have any kind of proportianal representation as regards to a games players who arent xfire users, it becomes even more worthless.. or more accurately... just a guess...
yup.. but it does kind of prove my point of statistics.. you can pretty much argue any kind of case using them.. and .. of course the percentage of players of any game that use xfire is very relevant.. particularly if its being compared to another game where the percentage of xfire users might not be as favourable, in which case the xfire statistics would be extremely misleading.. and as xfire itself doesnt have any kind of proportianal representation as regards to a games players who arent xfire users, it becomes even more worthless.. or more accurately... just a guess...
If you want to use and apply statistics, then you have to fully understand them. And I repeat, there is no reason whatsoever, currently on the table, that would make us believe that one game has significantly different ratio of x-fire users than other games. We might speculate that x-fire is more used by FPS gamers, or by RPG gamers or whatever, but there is no indication that would make us think that the games vary significantly in their x-fire/non-xfire user ratio (index).
In other words, for clarification, there is no indication whatsoever that would make us believe, that for instance 1% of lotro playerbase uses x-fire, while 5% of Aion playerbase uses x-fire.
One might say, that x-fire users might be a little more communicative (and enjoy to socialize), so they prefer group-based games, thus group based MMO's could have a slightly higher ratio of x-fire users. And I probably would agree with that, but that alone doesn't change the tendency changes listed in my original post.
@Phry: it's all speculation anyway. It becomes more interesting however if one makes extrapolations and estimates about player populations and subs based on Xfire figures and trends, and when real figures are being released by companies, those estimations appear to be close to the publicised facts.
Or if a guess using Xfire figures would be made about incoming revenues of an MMORPG for a company and that guess ends up to be close to the actual quarterly figures.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I do not trust XFire it is way to often that I find games not detected even if they was detected last time I played.
Manual or automatic detection do not matter.
I bet they are controlling the client to manipulate the statistics shown.
Why would they make an effort to manipulate the client that way, and not just rewrite the data on the website (or add a simple additional condition in the database) in any way they like? The usual irrationality of such conspiration theories.
Dragon Age 2 also came out during the same time period. It could be people getting their Dragon Age fix, then when they are done going back to their respective MMO of choice.
It's funny because DA2 is likely the main cause of the dip as most I know are taking a minor break while playing it. But, when someone has their heart set on an idea logic isn't always enough to get them to consider an alternative.
Ironically, you missed out the hidden criticism of RIFT in my OP. I guess one has not shout out "this game is shite" for you to notice.
Additionally, mostly the trend shifts started prior to DA2 release.
Ahh since you said RIFT is a bad game which has absolutely nothing at all to do with what I said it means I was incorrect?
As I said lol, when someone has their heart set on an idea logic isn't always enough to get them to consider an alternative. They will defend it with w/e irrational argument or point that pops into their head. This is an example.....
You state Rift is hurting other games even though it's a bad game to you as there is a decline on Xfire.
I agree with another poster and point out that DA2 is the more logical cause but go on to state that you likely have your heart set on the cause being Rift and that logic isn't likely to sway you.
You counter with "It's Ironic that you missed that I think the game is crap".
Want to take another stab at which post would better fit in line with the way you are using irony.
But hey, new MMO launches people try it.... big shocker. Highly anticipated RPG launches and a large dip in numbers happens .... big shocker.
Some advice for the future though, if you keep repeating the same thing over and over when there is no rhyme or reason to, it makes it much less believable.
I actually thought you didn't like Rift when I first read the OP and just didn't take other things into consideration.
Your reply though makes me question that considering your views on the quality of Rift weren't in question but you still felt the need to defend your views on the quality of Rift as if that was what was being questioned or disagreed upon.
I disagree with you on the effect Rift is having on other MMO's. So far it's following the same path of your typical AAA MMO launch. Huge interest prior to launch, 1mil sales in first week and then followed by the standard posts from many stating there dislikes with others comming in to say "Don't listen to the haters." and of course the Xfire threads. It just wouldn't be the same without the Xfire threads.
Next we move on to financial statements and so forth.
Same shyte, different day.
Though I do encourage you to look at all the variables before becoming firmly entrenched in any one view point.
I do not trust XFire it is way to often that I find games not detected even if they was detected last time I played.
Manual or automatic detection do not matter.
I bet they are controlling the client to manipulate the statistics shown.
Why would they make an effort to manipulate the client that way, and not just rewrite the data on the website (or add a simple additional condition in the database) in any way they like? The usual irrationality of such conspiration theories.
I do not trust XFire it is way to often that I find games not detected even if they was detected last time I played.
Manual or automatic detection do not matter.
I bet they are controlling the client to manipulate the statistics shown.
Why would they make an effort to manipulate the client that way, and not just rewrite the data on the website (or add a simple additional condition in the database) in any way they like? The usual irrationality of such conspiration theories.
Yes
In fact this may be more than just conspiracy theories. I've noticed many days that Modern Warfar was well ahead of WoW in certain days and suddenly, with just a refresh on the end of the counting day WoW went to the top gaining like 3 million minutes in a second while Modern Warfare kept the same numbers.
Above that this game in question, Rift, isnt even supported yet and the people who want it counting must add it manually. Wich makes the real numbers probably higher.
XFire lost it's credibility long ago, precisely because it comits alot of mistakes and benefits some games on the way, but hey, they must win their money I agree with that. Just dont take the numbers they show as reality because that is just a marketing driven website
Yes, of course it must be all due to Rift. I mean, Rift is the Second Coming, right? There's no way it could be due DA2 and other games being released, most of Japan being offline, half the country being on Spring Break, or a number of other possible/combined reasons.
I know Rift has had a huge impact on Aion. I know of entire guilds who've left Aion for good to go start a new chapter in Rift. Gaiscioch is one of the guilds who left just for example and that is a very large guild.
Statistics are nothing more than a decision making tool. I believe the OP knows this; accordingly, to attack the validity and intentions of his post is healthy, but only to an extent. Do completely ignore the data is just silly.
The OP has presented a finding and we are all entitled to swallow it how we see fit. Yet, since it is a correlational finding we should avoid seeing it in black or white. But, we should all respect him for contributing to the zeitgeist of our RIFT knowledge lol.
Yes, of course it must be all due to Rift. I mean, Rift is the Second Coming, right? There's no way it could be due DA2 and other games being released, most of Japan being offline, half the country being on Spring Break, or a number of other possible/combined reasons.
Good point!! Rift IS the second coming :P
It is an excellent game and no matter what you think of the status rift is way up and several other games went way down in the same time. Even before some of these things you point out.
I'm not even sure xfire is automatically detecting rift so the numbers for rift might be somewhat low. I know that I had to manually add rift to my xfire to get it to work. Thankfully someone posted on the xfire forums how to do that.
Course that means I don't know if xfire detects rift or not since mine is manually setup
The salient point is whether the sample is *random*, rather than how big it is. The inference from trends in the sample to trends in the actual population is only valid if everyone in the population is equally likely to be sampled.
In a lot of cases this is difficult to do. In fact, it is a major headache.
This is understood by many of the posters here but I thought I'd state it clearly.
With regards to the Xfire group, it is what is called a self-selecting group; the individuals in the sample voluntarily nominate themselves to be in the sample. This alone casts doubt on the validity of the inference BECAUSE there *could* be a correlation between self-selection and gaming preferences.
I would say the onus is on the one making the inference to show that the sample is indeed random, because there IS reason to question it.
Yes, of course it must be all due to Rift. I mean, Rift is the Second Coming, right? There's no way it could be due DA2 and other games being released, most of Japan being offline, half the country being on Spring Break, or a number of other possible/combined reasons.
Good point!! Rift IS the second coming :P
It is an excellent game and no matter what you think of the status rift is way up and several other games went way down in the same time. Even before some of these things you point out.
I'm not even sure xfire is automatically detecting rift so the numbers for rift might be somewhat low. I know that I had to manually add rift to my xfire to get it to work. Thankfully someone posted on the xfire forums how to do that.
Course that means I don't know if xfire detects rift or not since mine is manually setup
It doesnt, the Rift numbers are a fraction of what they really are.
This is just proof that XFire works obviously out of interests because it's uncomprehensible that a software like this one ignores a game that has been out for 3 weeks now and has more than 100 servers... They don't even pretend to be fair, lol
Dragon Age 2 also came out during the same time period. It could be people getting their Dragon Age fix, then when they are done going back to their respective MMO of choice.
This.
I haven't touched any MMO's in a while, other than to log in to make and auction food. But I'll be back.
Yes, of course it must be all due to Rift. I mean, Rift is the Second Coming, right? There's no way it could be due DA2 and other games being released, most of Japan being offline, half the country being on Spring Break, or a number of other possible/combined reasons.
Good point!! Rift IS the second coming :P
It is an excellent game and no matter what you think of the status rift is way up and several other games went way down in the same time. Even before some of these things you point out.
I'm not even sure xfire is automatically detecting rift so the numbers for rift might be somewhat low. I know that I had to manually add rift to my xfire to get it to work. Thankfully someone posted on the xfire forums how to do that.
Course that means I don't know if xfire detects rift or not since mine is manually setup
It doesnt, the Rift numbers are a fraction of what they really are.
This is just proof that XFire works obviously out of interests because it's uncomprehensible that a software like this one ignores a game that has been out for 3 weeks now and has more than 100 servers... They don't even pretend to be fair, lol
bah there isn't any malevalence in this. Xfire just takes time to update there game recognition software. I don't think they really are making xfire to track game usage specifically I think it is more about a game sharing, chat, guilds etc thing and oh yeah you can click on buy games from xfire.
Comments
@OP: on the side, I don't what you're comparing with what, but at a quick glance your figures for Aion seem wrong. I didn't look at the other ones, so can't tell whether they're wrong too.
And I'm not sure Asian countries like Korea or China are represented fairly; for example I can't recall that WoW's Xfire figures rose dramatically when WotLK went live in China. Neither can I see TERA on the list, while I thought it was already live in Korea.
Next to that, a global Xfire trendline should be taken into account, namely could it be that over the whole line figures are slowly declining, bc of reasons as people replacing Xfire with Raptr for use.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
yup.. but it does kind of prove my point of statistics.. you can pretty much argue any kind of case using them.. and .. of course the percentage of players of any game that use xfire is very relevant.. particularly if its being compared to another game where the percentage of xfire users might not be as favourable, in which case the xfire statistics would be extremely misleading.. and as xfire itself doesnt have any kind of proportianal representation as regards to a games players who arent xfire users, it becomes even more worthless.. or more accurately... just a guess...
If you want to use and apply statistics, then you have to fully understand them. And I repeat, there is no reason whatsoever, currently on the table, that would make us believe that one game has significantly different ratio of x-fire users than other games. We might speculate that x-fire is more used by FPS gamers, or by RPG gamers or whatever, but there is no indication that would make us think that the games vary significantly in their x-fire/non-xfire user ratio (index).
In other words, for clarification, there is no indication whatsoever that would make us believe, that for instance 1% of lotro playerbase uses x-fire, while 5% of Aion playerbase uses x-fire.
One might say, that x-fire users might be a little more communicative (and enjoy to socialize), so they prefer group-based games, thus group based MMO's could have a slightly higher ratio of x-fire users. And I probably would agree with that, but that alone doesn't change the tendency changes listed in my original post.
REALITY CHECK
@Phry: it's all speculation anyway. It becomes more interesting however if one makes extrapolations and estimates about player populations and subs based on Xfire figures and trends, and when real figures are being released by companies, those estimations appear to be close to the publicised facts.
Or if a guess using Xfire figures would be made about incoming revenues of an MMORPG for a company and that guess ends up to be close to the actual quarterly figures.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I do not trust XFire it is way to often that I find games not detected even if they was detected last time I played.
Manual or automatic detection do not matter.
I bet they are controlling the client to manipulate the statistics shown.
I'm so broke. I can't even pay attention.
"You have the right not to be killed"
Why would they make an effort to manipulate the client that way, and not just rewrite the data on the website (or add a simple additional condition in the database) in any way they like? The usual irrationality of such conspiration theories.
REALITY CHECK
Ahh since you said RIFT is a bad game which has absolutely nothing at all to do with what I said it means I was incorrect?
As I said lol, when someone has their heart set on an idea logic isn't always enough to get them to consider an alternative. They will defend it with w/e irrational argument or point that pops into their head. This is an example.....
You state Rift is hurting other games even though it's a bad game to you as there is a decline on Xfire.
I agree with another poster and point out that DA2 is the more logical cause but go on to state that you likely have your heart set on the cause being Rift and that logic isn't likely to sway you.
You counter with "It's Ironic that you missed that I think the game is crap".
Want to take another stab at which post would better fit in line with the way you are using irony.
But hey, new MMO launches people try it.... big shocker. Highly anticipated RPG launches and a large dip in numbers happens .... big shocker.
Some advice for the future though, if you keep repeating the same thing over and over when there is no rhyme or reason to, it makes it much less believable.
I actually thought you didn't like Rift when I first read the OP and just didn't take other things into consideration.
Your reply though makes me question that considering your views on the quality of Rift weren't in question but you still felt the need to defend your views on the quality of Rift as if that was what was being questioned or disagreed upon.
I disagree with you on the effect Rift is having on other MMO's. So far it's following the same path of your typical AAA MMO launch. Huge interest prior to launch, 1mil sales in first week and then followed by the standard posts from many stating there dislikes with others comming in to say "Don't listen to the haters." and of course the Xfire threads. It just wouldn't be the same without the Xfire threads.
Next we move on to financial statements and so forth.
Same shyte, different day.
Though I do encourage you to look at all the variables before becoming firmly entrenched in any one view point.
And yes I know my spelling is horrid!
Yes
I'm so broke. I can't even pay attention.
"You have the right not to be killed"
In fact this may be more than just conspiracy theories. I've noticed many days that Modern Warfar was well ahead of WoW in certain days and suddenly, with just a refresh on the end of the counting day WoW went to the top gaining like 3 million minutes in a second while Modern Warfare kept the same numbers.
Above that this game in question, Rift, isnt even supported yet and the people who want it counting must add it manually. Wich makes the real numbers probably higher.
XFire lost it's credibility long ago, precisely because it comits alot of mistakes and benefits some games on the way, but hey, they must win their money I agree with that. Just dont take the numbers they show as reality because that is just a marketing driven website
Yes, of course it must be all due to Rift. I mean, Rift is the Second Coming, right? There's no way it could be due DA2 and other games being released, most of Japan being offline, half the country being on Spring Break, or a number of other possible/combined reasons.
I know Rift has had a huge impact on Aion. I know of entire guilds who've left Aion for good to go start a new chapter in Rift. Gaiscioch is one of the guilds who left just for example and that is a very large guild.
Statistics are nothing more than a decision making tool. I believe the OP knows this; accordingly, to attack the validity and intentions of his post is healthy, but only to an extent. Do completely ignore the data is just silly.
The OP has presented a finding and we are all entitled to swallow it how we see fit. Yet, since it is a correlational finding we should avoid seeing it in black or white. But, we should all respect him for contributing to the zeitgeist of our RIFT knowledge lol.
Good point!! Rift IS the second coming :P
It is an excellent game and no matter what you think of the status rift is way up and several other games went way down in the same time. Even before some of these things you point out.
I'm not even sure xfire is automatically detecting rift so the numbers for rift might be somewhat low. I know that I had to manually add rift to my xfire to get it to work. Thankfully someone posted on the xfire forums how to do that.
Course that means I don't know if xfire detects rift or not since mine is manually setup
---
Ethion
"Most people use statistics the way a drunk uses a lamp post, more for support than enlightenment."
The salient point is whether the sample is *random*, rather than how big it is. The inference from trends in the sample to trends in the actual population is only valid if everyone in the population is equally likely to be sampled.
In a lot of cases this is difficult to do. In fact, it is a major headache.
This is understood by many of the posters here but I thought I'd state it clearly.
With regards to the Xfire group, it is what is called a self-selecting group; the individuals in the sample voluntarily nominate themselves to be in the sample. This alone casts doubt on the validity of the inference BECAUSE there *could* be a correlation between self-selection and gaming preferences.
I would say the onus is on the one making the inference to show that the sample is indeed random, because there IS reason to question it.
endstatisticslecture
It doesnt, the Rift numbers are a fraction of what they really are.
This is just proof that XFire works obviously out of interests because it's uncomprehensible that a software like this one ignores a game that has been out for 3 weeks now and has more than 100 servers... They don't even pretend to be fair, lol
This.
I haven't touched any MMO's in a while, other than to log in to make and auction food. But I'll be back.
bah there isn't any malevalence in this. Xfire just takes time to update there game recognition software. I don't think they really are making xfire to track game usage specifically
I think it is more about a game sharing, chat, guilds etc thing and oh yeah you can click on buy games from xfire.
Just give it time and things will shake out.
---
Ethion