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  • kwaikwai Member UncommonPosts: 825

    Originally posted by Yamota

    XFire shows a 20% drop of played hours compared to the peak one month ago. So as predicted this latest "great" game is starting to lose ground.

    How much you wanna bet that by next month it will be at 50% of peak?

    Because its the same repetive trash that you do day in day out, grinding T1 dungeons till you have enough +hit/focus/toughness till you can do T2 and get that gear, when you have that, raid Greenscale, rinse and repeat, boring.

  • YamotaYamota Member UncommonPosts: 6,593

    Originally posted by Daffid011

    Originally posted by Yamota


    Originally posted by Daffid011

    Back in the EQ/DOAC days, the devs said that a 70% retention rate was normal for a game.  A 20% drop seems like things are going pretty well for Rift considering that.

    I personally think that most games will see a drop in hours played after launch as people get into more reasonable playing times.   People tend to consume new games very heavily in the first few weeks and then gradually scale back playtimes.

     

    The curious thing is if this means the huge growth of the game has stopped or the xfire numbers mainly represent early adoptors to the game. 

     

    On the flip side, DCU saw alomst 70% decline after its first month and is somewhere above 90% decline currently.  Rift doesn't seem to have to much to worry about yet.

    Show me a linke please. I played both of these games and none of them showed a significant drop in subs. It rather felt that EQ even gained subs months for quite a few months after release and held steady at around 300k or so.

    Considering it took months, with a dedicated team, to cap back at those days it is not so strange. It takes what, 2-4 weeks to cap in Rift? 1 week in DCU?

    I'm not sure which part you want a link for, but I'll guess the 70% retention.   LINK is one exmaple of Marc Jacobs referencing DAOCs retention of new players at 70%. 

    However you are right that the games felt like they were growing, because they were.  While 7/10 new players stuck with the game, they were also gaining more new players than they were losing.   For every 3 players that were leaving 4 or more were jumping in to take their place.  The xfire number suggests that might not be happening for rift, but it is way to soon to tell.

     

    I don't really know about the leveling speed of Rift, but DCU was extremely quick.  1 weeks sounds about right, perhaps 2 at a casual pace.  Though I don't subscribe to the speed of leveling as being important as long as there are plenty of activities to engage in.   If the act of leveling a character is enjoyable then the amount of time it requires doesn't matter much.  If it is boring then it is just a barrier to the fun parts of a game. 

    Nice link there:

    "1) Our retention rate is higher than 70% based on current data. DAoC was indeed 72% in North America. WAR's number is higher and remains higher than DAoC since billing began. I'm quite happy with WAR's numbers as they are exactly what I expected they would be. "

    He quoted WAR saying it had higher retention rate than 70% the first month and where is it now?

    Rift has basically no appealing reason to stay longer than a couple of months. You will cap within a month and the Rifts get boring fast and the raids are the same old that we have seen before. There is nothing to tell me this game would be any different than WAR or AoC, retention wise.

    And once GW 2, SW:TOR and Tera are released? No way this game will hold more than 100k subs.

  • CecropiaCecropia Member RarePosts: 3,985

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by Cecropia

    Do you honestly think that the average gamer out there today uses a program like xfire? It doesn't represent mainstream gamers rendering it useless in tracking any sort of trend other than within the small minority that uses it.

    What do you consider an average gamer? 

    I play games maybe 10-20 hours per week and I would say that is quite average and I am using XFire to track my gaming time. Really dont see anything hardcore with XFire, it is easy to install and configure so why would not average gamers use it?

    The way I see it: most people who play online games aren't "into" it enough to ever consider such a program.

    "Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb

  • YamotaYamota Member UncommonPosts: 6,593

    Originally posted by maitrader

    Originally posted by Yamota


    Originally posted by Cecropia


    Originally posted by Yamota


    Originally posted by Dionysus187


    Originally posted by Yamota

    You have a better source?

    Lack of a better source doesn't justify an incredibly shitty one. unless you're religious of course.

    And what rational reason do you have for XFire not being representative of MMORPG gamers?

    Do you honestly think that the average gamer out there today uses a program like xfire? It doesn't represent mainstream gamers rendering it useless in tracking any sort of trend other than within the small minority that uses it.

    What do you consider an average gamer? 

    I play games maybe 10-20 hours per week and I would say that is quite average and I am using XFire to track my gaming time. Really dont see anything hardcore with XFire, it is easy to install and configure so why would not average gamers use it?

     because I dont like installing worthless Caca on my machine? clutter... a horrible habit a hoarder dabbles in.. I like as little as possible running on my machine... think there are many like me.

    It keeps track on your gaming time, may be caca for you but I see alot of people being interested to keep track on the games they played and how much.

  • Ender4Ender4 Member UncommonPosts: 2,247

    Not like you need xfire to tell you the population is down, the number of servers reaching high population dropped a good 25% over the past week as well.

  • AyonarAyonar Member Posts: 44

    Originally posted by maitrader

    Originally posted by Yamota


    Originally posted by Cecropia


    Originally posted by Yamota


    Originally posted by Dionysus187


    Originally posted by Yamota

    You have a better source?

    Lack of a better source doesn't justify an incredibly shitty one. unless you're religious of course.

    And what rational reason do you have for XFire not being representative of MMORPG gamers?

    Do you honestly think that the average gamer out there today uses a program like xfire? It doesn't represent mainstream gamers rendering it useless in tracking any sort of trend other than within the small minority that uses it.

    What do you consider an average gamer? 

    I play games maybe 10-20 hours per week and I would say that is quite average and I am using XFire to track my gaming time. Really dont see anything hardcore with XFire, it is easy to install and configure so why would not average gamers use it?

     because I dont like installing worthless Caca on my machine? clutter... a horrible habit a hoarder dabbles in.. I like as little as possible running on my machine... think there are many like me.

    Id have to agree...im a somewhat "hardcore" PC Gamer and probably spend 4 to 5 hours a day gaming on days i work, and probably twice that when i dont (with the exception of my weekends with my son) and i havent used xfire for atleast a few years. Id say itd be an extremely inaccurate way to gauge activity in a game.

    Currently Playing : Rift, EQ2
    Has Played: Anarchy Online, SWG(Pre NGE refugee), DAoC, EQ1, EQ2, Lineage 2, CoH, CoV, Horizons, AoC, FFXI, FFXIV, Aion, WoW, DCUO, Matrix Online, Vanguard, Tabula Rasa, LotRo, Fallen Earth, Shadowbane, EQoA, ArchLord

  • Lazarus71Lazarus71 Member UncommonPosts: 1,081

    ^This

    No signature, I don't have a pen

  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Originally posted by Dionysus187

    Originally posted by Yamota


    Originally posted by Dionysus187

    you immediately lose any credibility by citing xfire numbers.

    Also, why the fuck would ANYONE be surprised in a drop of players after their FREE month was up? You definitely had people playing that had no intention of staying.

    You have a better source?

    Lack of a better source doesn't justify an incredibly shitty one. unless you're religious of course.

    There are 4 means that I know of to observe player activity for Rift (well 5, if you include ingame counting of player numbers on set times): XFire, Raptr, Steam and the server shard status list.

     

    While I agree that each measurement has its flaws, I think that all these 4 taken together can be used to get a rough idea of how a player population develops over time, for those who're interested in such things. After all, that's the way how samples usually are used in election times or for market research reasons or scientific surveys.

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

  • kakasakikakasaki Member UncommonPosts: 1,205

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by Cecropia


    Originally posted by Yamota


    Originally posted by Dionysus187


    Originally posted by Yamota

    You have a better source?

    Lack of a better source doesn't justify an incredibly shitty one. unless you're religious of course.

    And what rational reason do you have for XFire not being representative of MMORPG gamers?

    Do you honestly think that the average gamer out there today uses a program like xfire? It doesn't represent mainstream gamers rendering it useless in tracking any sort of trend other than within the small minority that uses it.

    What do you consider an average gamer? 

    I play games maybe 10-20 hours per week and I would say that is quite average and I am using XFire to track my gaming time. Really dont see anything hardcore with XFire, it is easy to install and configure so why would not average gamers use it?

    I am an average gamer (16-20 hours a week, mostly weekend) and I don't use it and never will. To me it comes down to what's the point?

    -Track my game time? Why would I care as I am a casual player anyways?

    -Keep in contact with gaming "friends"? Don't have that many and those I do, do not use Xfire either...

    -So I can post what games I play and for how long on my sig in forums? Please, get a life people.

     

    So yeah, Xfire not representitive of most gamers out there, in particular the casual ones...

     

    But please continue with the DOOM, DOOM,  DOOM!!!

    A man is his own easiest dupe, for what he wishes to be true he generally believes to be true...

  • metalguy23metalguy23 Member Posts: 90

    We're not in Azeroth anymore! Umm okay then, actually we are in Azeroth with less races, (all look human) less starting areas, same ol same ol quest grind kill 10 rats crap with invasions and some (not so dynamic) rifts. Oh but wait end game is doing dungeons and raids for gear hold the phone wow what a difference from AZEROTH. Sorry Trion shot themselves in the foot when they started that ad campaign, bad move guys. I don't like WOW either (haven't plated it since '05).  I wish Blizz created Warcraft 4 instead but that's just me. Trion is a decent dev house but their game is nothing to jump up and down about and bored the hell out of me up to level 30 which is when I quit. You want something different and innovative wait for Guild Wars 2 (I played it it's amazing). Starting area for each race which is freakin awesome oh and I don't want to ruin anything but their events are truly dynamic and world changing very unique system. Cant wait

  • ThomasN7ThomasN7 87.18.7.148Member CommonPosts: 6,690

    I'll give it atleast another 3 more months before the big dip happens.

    30
  • YamotaYamota Member UncommonPosts: 6,593

    Originally posted by SaintViktor

    I'll give it atleast another 3 more months before the big dip happens.

    Yes for sure, in 3 months I will be back and making a post of 50%+ drop and how the trend will be extremely similar to WAR/AoC.

    How do I know? Well all of these WoW clones have really nothing big going for them that WoW does not have already so there is really no selling point to keep people subbed to this game.

    And with some big titles coming out later this year... well lets just say that this game serves it purpose as a filler/passtime until the big boys come.

  • blood87blood87 Member Posts: 32

    i was just reading earlier post about people saying 300k subs wasnt anything to boast about.

     

    WoW really has screwed up the numbers, it's not that many of these mmo's "fail" it's normal, actually more people then were usual before, comparing numbers to WoW is just nonsense, it shouldn't be counted as a refrence it's a behemoth of an anamoly.

     

    I have a friend that sees mmo's with under 1m subs a total failure...   and i think... what world is he living in, when did the "normal" sub rate increase that much.

     

    So i wouldn't say Rift has failed, it has actually been a success, and looks to retain more subs then many other mmo's therefore a huge success.

  • ThomasN7ThomasN7 87.18.7.148Member CommonPosts: 6,690

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by SaintViktor

    I'll give it atleast another 3 more months before the big dip happens.

    Yes for sure, in 3 months I will be back and making a post of 50%+ drop and how the trend will be extremely similar to WAR/AoC.

    How do I know? Well all of these WoW clones have really nothing big going for them that WoW does not have already so there is really no selling point to keep people subbed to this game.

    And with some big titles coming out later this year... well lets just say that this game serves it purpose as a filler/passtime until the big boys come.

     Totally agree with that. As soon as The Old Republic and Guild Wars 2 gets here most mmos are done for anway.

    30
  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Member RarePosts: 14,247

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by Zorgo

    Every single mmo released into this market will drop noticably in subs after the first month of free play. /thread

    That only holds true for WoW clones. Alot of old MMORPGs did not lose subs but rather slowly gained.

    Eve, EQ, DAoC, Asherons Call, UO, FF IX, Lineage 2 all of them gained subs months after release and in some cases maintained them for YEARS before starting to drop. Check out http://www.mmodata.net/ to see yourself.

    Even LOTRO gained subs for over a year before starting to slowly drop. It is rather WAR and AoC (and other WoW clones) which dropped significantly in subs.

    So what you're saying is that it has consistently held true for over six years. How does that make his point any less correct?

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • VercinVercin Member UncommonPosts: 371

    Considering they had 10,000 keys to test for mmorpg.com over the weekend and when i looked this morning there were still about 4600 left. That doesn't look good.

    I would have expected 0 keys left.

    The Stranger: It's what people know about themselves inside that makes 'em afraid.

  • metalguy23metalguy23 Member Posts: 90

    I could have designed a way better game, basically make it where you start a new char. Make 6 races with 6 starting areas with all regular quest hubs as a tutorial up to level 5 or so then BOOM a Rift then from there its RIFTS and huge invasions with people only of your oWN Race. No quests then you have zones at level 20 where you take over castles and each opposing side creates rifts to try to invade each sides castle. Also add siege equipment flying ships and destructible walls. That to me sounds like an exciting game not this crap where its do this quest then do that quest fight a rift fight 1000's of mobs collect stupid planarite to turn in for a new pair of boots, then hit 50 do stupid dungeons for the new shouldblades. Oh and if you want to pvp join this battleground where people have no idea what to do but spam abilities. What a shame oh well. Noone seems to know how to add some pizzazz or excitement to their games. Warhammer onine was a snoozefest because of the horribly dated engine and dated gameplay mechanics, you can do more with DAOC and that's an older engine (destructible walls anyone? all char shadows and environmental shadows lol). Poor devs are lost, add some excitement and epicness to your games.

  • Garvon3Garvon3 Member CommonPosts: 2,898

    Originally posted by Loktofeit

    Originally posted by Yamota


    Originally posted by Zorgo

    Every single mmo released into this market will drop noticably in subs after the first month of free play. /thread

    That only holds true for WoW clones. Alot of old MMORPGs did not lose subs but rather slowly gained.

    Eve, EQ, DAoC, Asherons Call, UO, FF IX, Lineage 2 all of them gained subs months after release and in some cases maintained them for YEARS before starting to drop. Check out http://www.mmodata.net/ to see yourself.

    Even LOTRO gained subs for over a year before starting to slowly drop. It is rather WAR and AoC (and other WoW clones) which dropped significantly in subs.

    So what you're saying is that it has consistently held true for over six years. How does that make his point any less correct?

    What he's saying is, uninspired WoW clones like LotRO, Aion, AoC, Rift, ect ect, dropped in subs after the first month because people realize how same-y it is and go back to what they were doing. The new shine wears off. With older games, that were vastly unique from one another, after the shine wore off there was still a brand new unique game to play, and it GAINED subs. So far, in recent memory, the only MMOs to GAIN subs after launch are Eve and Darkfall, and maybe Fallen Earth.

  • ArthineasArthineas Member Posts: 231

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by Daffid011


    Originally posted by Yamota


    Originally posted by Daffid011

    Back in the EQ/DOAC days, the devs said that a 70% retention rate was normal for a game.  A 20% drop seems like things are going pretty well for Rift considering that.

    I personally think that most games will see a drop in hours played after launch as people get into more reasonable playing times.   People tend to consume new games very heavily in the first few weeks and then gradually scale back playtimes.

     

    The curious thing is if this means the huge growth of the game has stopped or the xfire numbers mainly represent early adoptors to the game. 

     

    On the flip side, DCU saw alomst 70% decline after its first month and is somewhere above 90% decline currently.  Rift doesn't seem to have to much to worry about yet.

    Show me a linke please. I played both of these games and none of them showed a significant drop in subs. It rather felt that EQ even gained subs months for quite a few months after release and held steady at around 300k or so.

    Considering it took months, with a dedicated team, to cap back at those days it is not so strange. It takes what, 2-4 weeks to cap in Rift? 1 week in DCU?

    I'm not sure which part you want a link for, but I'll guess the 70% retention.   LINK is one exmaple of Marc Jacobs referencing DAOCs retention of new players at 70%. 

    However you are right that the games felt like they were growing, because they were.  While 7/10 new players stuck with the game, they were also gaining more new players than they were losing.   For every 3 players that were leaving 4 or more were jumping in to take their place.  The xfire number suggests that might not be happening for rift, but it is way to soon to tell.

     

    I don't really know about the leveling speed of Rift, but DCU was extremely quick.  1 weeks sounds about right, perhaps 2 at a casual pace.  Though I don't subscribe to the speed of leveling as being important as long as there are plenty of activities to engage in.   If the act of leveling a character is enjoyable then the amount of time it requires doesn't matter much.  If it is boring then it is just a barrier to the fun parts of a game. 

    Nice link there:

    "1) Our retention rate is higher than 70% based on current data. DAoC was indeed 72% in North America. WAR's number is higher and remains higher than DAoC since billing began. I'm quite happy with WAR's numbers as they are exactly what I expected they would be. "

    He quoted WAR saying it had higher retention rate than 70% the first month and where is it now?

    Rift has basically no appealing reason to stay longer than a couple of months. You will cap within a month and the Rifts get boring fast and the raids are the same old that we have seen before. There is nothing to tell me this game would be any different than WAR or AoC, retention wise.

    And once GW 2, SW:TOR and Tera are released? No way this game will hold more than 100k subs.

    Rift has been thriving from what I have seen.  Sure GW 2 and Swtor will put a dent in it but I would not be surprised to see them have 500k to a million subscribers.  Trion is a very good company and Rift is a great game.  

    As far as Tera goes they are a non factor in my opinion.  They are supposed to be an asian game that is truly westernized but from what I have seen so far I am not impressed. Tera will be the game that holds no more then 100k subs outside of the Asian countries.

  • erictlewiserictlewis Member UncommonPosts: 3,022

    Originally posted by Vercin

    Considering they had 10,000 keys to test for mmorpg.com over the weekend and when i looked this morning there were still about 4600 left. That doesn't look good.

    I would have expected 0 keys left.

    I find it funny that they gave away 10k keys and only about 1/2 of them got used.

    I knew they were in for a drop all games drop after the new wears off.  What we need to see is what happens win the 3 month subscription guys don't resub.   That will be the true test now is retention.  I got a feeling were going to see the same thing happen that we saw in warhammer, and aoc.

  • just1opinionjust1opinion Member UncommonPosts: 4,641

    Originally posted by Yamota

    Originally posted by MMO.Maverick


    Originally posted by Cik_Asalin

    Im sure the title wont live up to the studios expectations, but it will live up to the markets expectations of success being 200k-300k sustained subscribers 3-6months post-launch.  Not a bad thing, but nothing to be all boastful about.  Rift game me alot of enjoyment over the 6-weeks I played it.  I've got a level 50 toon, had fun on the journey, but refuse to pay $15/month to play their end-game content without features by sitting around reapeating the same BattleGrounds/Warfronts over and over or spending a couple hours doing the same dungeons over and over just for the sake of a purple item.  But that's me.

    Actually, in interviews a number of months back Trion people themselves said that they'd be happy with a few hundred k of subs, anything more would be a bonus.

    Well that is one of the problems with the genre currently. These "chewing gum" MMORPGs where you play for a short while and then dump, due to lack of content and longetivity, is apparently enough to make some profit for the companies so they keep making them.

    In effect MMORPGs have become more like single player games where companies release one with enough content for 1-2 months, make a quick buck and then move on with a skeleton crew to maintain the game for whatever subs it has left. Cryptic are experts at this model it seems.

     

    I agree.  Note the first quote in my signature.  I completely believe that and think we have many games that would prove the point.  Oh....and in my opinion....some "crap" is very polished, but that doesn't make it any less crap.

    President of The Marvelously Meowhead Fan Club

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  • KostKost Member CommonPosts: 1,975

    Originally posted by blueturtle13

    xfire.  lol

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  • MMO.MaverickMMO.Maverick Member CommonPosts: 7,619

    Originally posted by just1opinion

    Oh....and in my opinion....some "crap" is very polished, but that doesn't make it any less crap.

    Well, yeah, but as some saying goes, what one person sees as 'crap' is another person's wife he adores and values for the good he sees in her beyond the superficial stuff what others see as crap. image

    The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's

    The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
    Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."

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