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Biggest Flop of 2011 predictions [negativity thread]
Castillle
Member UncommonPosts: 2,679
As the title statesthis is a negativity thread so please do NOT look here for info on whether you want to get a game or not and do not let it discourage or encourage you to get the games listed in here. This is only about possibilities and this is highly focused on the negative aspect of things so please do yourself a favor and do not take these posts too seriously o.o
So when the year is over and were all looking back and making our new years resolution...At that point, which do you think is going to be considered the biggest flop in gaming?
Doomsayers saying EVE will go bankrupt before the end of he year.
Doomsayers saying SWTOR will be a ghost town a month or so after release.
Doomsayers saying GW2 will be a complete snorefest.
Doomsayers saying TSW will come out as badly as AoC.
Doomsayers saying Tera is a huge pile of boringness with slow paced combat.
Doomsayers saying Archeage will release a statement saying that it will never be released for the western marker and/or being a bait and switch tactic.
And finally!
Doomsayers saying Diablo 3 is just a single player WoW with better graphics and animations dumbed down to the point where you can pretty much not get killed.
So I want you guys to keep it civil and name down your predictions on what do you think has the chance of being the biggest flop of 2011.
Im sure Im missing a bunch so you guys should place your predictions. Oh and please no defending too much because we are talking about Possibilities and not probabilities.
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Comments
Don't plan on coming back to EVE after the whole debacle, SWG was pulled out from under me, TOR will become just become like every other WOW type clone, and every other game on that list I won't even consider trying, tired of throwing money away at game that studios think I will like and eventually cancel due to the fact they offer nothing more than raids, pvp, combat.
i'll be surprised if SWTOR or GW2 or D3 launch in 2011
- they may but I doubt it
none of them have release dates and 6 months until 2012
EQ2 fan sites
GW2: Massive, massive success. The first game was very successful so this is a no brainer. And that game wasn't even an MMO. It may only sell an average amount of copies to begin with, but the sales will remain consistant for a long time. GW1 has sold 7M in the long term and I wouldn't be surprised if GW2 sells double that over the next 3 years or so.
TSW: Very similar success to Rift. Overall a lot better reception and success than AoC, but nothing to write home about. Funcom would be happy enough.
RIFT: Moderate amount of continued success--around the same as EVE.
TERA: Only slightly more success than Aion under the same circumstances. But since it's going to be released along with so many other MMOs, it might suffer even more as a result.
Archeage: Will eventually release in the west but by then, will only have adopted a niche market.
Diablo 3: Not an MMO, but still a massive success ofc. As long as it remotely lives up to the previous games.
TOR: Will be one of the fastest selling games for a long time. A massive chunk of subscribers are lost after the first couple of months, however. But it will continue to have more sales in the mean time and will end up having around a million subscribers for the long run.
WOW: Will slowly dwindle until it has around 5-7 million subscribers. It's starting to happen now; and will continue to happen as a result of the MMOs/games above.
Biggest flop? It's hard to say. I'm inclined to say TOR because people are hyping it to have a similar success to WoW. But that won't be the case at all, even if will be very successful.
WoW will still be the biggest MMO in the industry. GW2 will become second (if only because of it's business model). TOR will be third. The next tier of MMOs would then be EVE, RIFT and TSW. Maybe TERA.
Those are my predictions.
Nice Post.
1) I don't think its that cut and dry with TOR. Just my opinion I see it having huge sales and being declared a massive success. I also see it having major population decline by the end of the first year. As opposed to the OP example of a ghost town after a month. The thing with MMO's is that they are meant for long term subscription... so calling any MMO a success early on is just odd. Yet that is exactly what will happen with TOR... Then later it will be "what did they do wrong..." (my opinion).
2) I'm glad this is going on with EvE and I don't mean I'm glad that players might be upset. I think that companies need to learn that people paying subscriptions do not want RMT on top of that. In fact I believe this is why so many companies are going with the "subscription model is outdated" line of BS. Well of course its outdated! If you can flock people into cash shops they will likely spend more than 15 bux a month. Its all about getting more cash out of you per month.. it has nothing to do with people not wanting to pay a subscription and RMT does not belong in a subscription game.
3) I wasn't even following GW2 until I read the article about the Engineer class. My opinion is the game will do ok.
bonus versions of my option..
4) I don't think TOR or GW2 will affect WoW at all. What causes World of Warcraft to lose or gain numbers is Blizzard. They have made some unpopular choices off and on and they drop subs accordingly. When they disclosed earlier this year that they had lost 650,000 subscribers that was a lot. Yet relative to their subscriber base it wasn't that much .. but it would have closed down almost any western MMO.. in fact most of them don't even have close to that many subscribers total. Mainstream western subscriber based MMO's that is.
I am sure a lot of WoW players will go to TOR because its new... within my same 12 month prediction above I see WoW gaining players by the end of TOR's first month of existence.. (GW2 I even if very successful I don't think will cause people to cancel other subscriptions.. unless it doesn't work the same as GW2 aka no subscription).
5) TSW... I almost shudder when I think about Funcom. I mean to me AO had some of the best atmosphere and a lot of creative ideas. Tho I suppose you could say the same for AoC. If for once Funcom actually released something that worked entirely... I believe TSW could be one of the biggest successes on the market. That is just a huge IF with Funcom.
So I guess my biggest flop prediction goes to TOR.. tho it won't be a "flop" until some point in 2012 (my 12 month window and if it doesn't release until 2012.. then we go into 2013). From a business perspective I assume it would actually make a profit just not a game I believe will have massive subscriber number for 5.. to 10 years. I don't honestly think the game will even hold EA's CEO "lowball" figure for 12 straight months.
I think The Old Republic has the potential to be the biggest flop because of the ip. The ip is immensely popular and if Bioware/EA don't come through mmos will not ever be the same. You think 2008 was bad when we had WAR and AOC fail so hard in the same year, wait until you see what happens if The Old Republic fails. You also can put Diablo 3 in here for the same reasons.
For me, only Tera is going to flop. It's going to be like Aion. I never base my excitement or hype on ONLY combat mechanics in the MMORPG genre. This is the only draw I see for Tera and what everyone yacks about in threads about the game. Ooh, the combat this, the combat that. Bah, what else is good about the game? I need deep exploration mechanics, housing, fluff options, character progression that is deep, tons of pvp and pve options, storyline, awesome music and graphics, open/seamless world, etc. Although, I'll still try the game, I just haven't seen anything but hype about the combat, and to me that' s not enough to make an MMORPG soar.
GW2 is going to be so awesome its going to make people sick of the WoW playstyle. Therefore, SWTOR, will be a ghost town after GW2 catches fire.
My best educated guess as to the level of failure of the upcoming MMO's goes something like this.
TOR will be a monetary succes, but it won't become the cashcow EA is hoping it will be. The gameplay and story is similar to the original KoTOR games, but for the rest it has many standard mmo features. The game will be extremely polished, high quality and even players who say it is WoW in space will notice that they easily spend several hundreds of hours in the game and enjoy it greatly. I just realize that unlike WoW I will not find the raiding, battleground pvp and other end-game content very impressive after doing it once or twice. I will level up several classes which suit my preference and then jump over to other MMO's. I expect many other players to have a similar approach with TOR, but I might be underestimating the level of dedication of Starwars and Bioware fanbois.
GW2 will be a huge succes, but it will not be the New Atlantis some of us are hoping it will be. My main concern is that I will rapidly devour all the dynamic events the game has to offer, complete all the dungeons in no time and then only care about the occassional WvWvW battle. The problem is that we know nothing about business model it is going to follow after the initial release. We know it will be buy to play with a cashshop, but we know next to nothing about the content updates after launch. Are they going to provide free content updates, mission packs, rapid expansions or something entirely different? This game won't fail in any way though, but it may be too slow with content updates after launch.
TERA will hopefully be a succes, but I am fearing it will be overshadowed by the competition. I have looked at several hours of people streaming the Korean Version and the combat looks really and I mean really good and lots of fun, but I expect GW2 fanbois will decide themselves that their game has better combat. GW2 combat looks good, but TERA combat looks great. The Big Ass Monsters or BAMS are something I am looking forward to. The most fun I ever had with WoW raiding came from the worldbosses such as Azeregos, Lord Kazzak, The Green Dragons and so on. Competing with other people for the best items is always a great thing in my eyes, but it is content limited to a small group of people. The PvP combat is very good and looks a lot of fun, but the world pvp system might need some extra polishing before it releases in Europe. The Political System excited me at first, but it depends entirely on how much people are willing to fight over provinces. I am also worried about the remaking of the Elins for the western market. Even if they put some decent cloths on those little girls, I will still expect people to bitch about it and create bad publicity. I guess they will be about as succesful as Rift, but never get past 1 million active subscribers (number of accounts will be bigger) at the same time.
TSW might be a succes, but even though I tried finding some information about it. I discovered that there isn't a lot of good information available about this game yet. The amount of publicity the game gets is also very minor compared to juggernauts such as GW2 and TOR. Just like TERA I expect this game to be overshadowed by the competition. I don't really expect massive failures in this new generation of MMO's. Because developers should have realized that releasing your game prematurely is nothing short of suicide.
ArcheAge is a game I know very little about. What I heard definitely sounds promising, but the aesthetics of what I have seen so far turn me off. When I played Rift, I could never really get into it because of the aesthetics. I expect ArcheAge to suffer the same fate. The amount of publicity it receives is also very minor just like TSW. For me personally this is the game I find the least interesting, but that is because I dislike the aesthetics and if I dislike those, the game won't do much for me even if it is the best thing since ambrosia.
Diablo 3 is not a MMO. If Blizzard decides to go with a subscription model or a cashshop for this game I expect a lot of raging customers, but since they decided to try out how far they could go recently with services such as Call of Duty Elite they might go along with it nonetheless. The game will still be a huge fucking succes, because Diablo 2 is a game you could find in any internetcafe around the world for a very long time. There have been only a handful of decent isometric action-rpg's since Diablo 2 came out and there is actually a very big market for this type of game. Torchlight did extremely well and that game had very little features and even lacked multiplayer. Diablo 3 will most definitely be a part of Battlenet so I assume it won't be pirated as often as Torchlight either (5 million times in China alone).
Well at least you took a stand on #5 and made an actual prediction.....
It's confirmed that there are over 2000 events in the game; each taking about 15 minutes each. That's what? 21 days of solid playing? I don't think content will be an issue.
ArenaNet has confirmed that there will be future expansion packs (and that they will feature new races for example).
also can start pvp at lvl 1 with max lvl stats and all skills unlocked;]
You my friend, are underestimating it bigtime... Those two group of fans are bigger than WoW... and more loyal than the Lotro fans to turbine.... just saying.
and one thing for a fact is I am going to be multi boxing 3 accounts sooo... I know of many people from SWG (Pre-NGE) days that had upwards of 12 accounts.... that is how crazy those fans are compared to WoW fans.
GW2. It will not live up to the hype the kool aid drinkers give it.
In Bioware we trust!
agreed, the game is going to flop like a fat kid smoothered in butter.
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Just trying to live long enough to play a new, released MMORPG, playing New Worlds atm
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TOR will release to fanfare and make alot of money. A year later subscriptions will have dropped once people realise it's the same old crap in space, but the game will remain stable and be fine carrying on. It won't bring any innovations to the genre.
GW2 release will go relatively well and people will enjoy the game. It doesn't deliver on all the innovations people want but it sets the groundwork for the MMO genre and the future will see more releases taking the genre in new directions, (both in terms of gameplay and business models).
Edit: And in the future we all live in a golden paradise where all asian grindfests/facebook social-style games have been burned at the stake.
Edit Edit: And all the online-only card trading games are made to watch.
The thing is, I can't really see it being less of a success than GW1.
Unless you're talking about the quality of the game itself. But I tend to associate 'flop' with bad success.
Except in Asia. In that alternate reality, they love those games and probally dislikes ours. Who knows...?
They have mentioned the number 1500, not 2000. This includes both huge encounters like the shatterer, but also minor events such as a special mob spawning if you pick up a stone (the example they once gave us). 21 days is actually very short for the average MMO-gamer. Even WoW takes roughly 10 days for levelling one character to 85. I managed to play well over a hundred days of in-game time in less than a year in my first year of WoW. Right now I am very optimistic for GW2, but I am not going to deny my concerns for content updates.
I'll only talk about TOR because it really is the only game mentioned that has the potential to change the MMO world (succeed or fail).
I think BW is banking on their KoTOR success too much here. They have created an MMO that appears to play a lot like a single player RPG. They are convienced that the masses want driven stories combined with WoW like game play. My problem with this is that the masses who play WoW seem unconcerned with story. I get a decent amount of replay out of BW single player RPG's but I don't think I would if I was paying a subscription to have to roll alts for very similar experiences. I understand that each class is supposed to have their own "epic story arch", but I'm not sure the masses are all that interested in "epic story archs" that cost them a monthly fee. I know that pricing has not been announced, but I can't see TOR going f2p with a game store, in fact I think that would make the game fail big time.
I don't think TOR will be an "epic" flop, but I do think it has been too over-hyped to ever live up to that hype, I also think that we've seen some inklings in the media already of disappointment when people's expectations meet reality. Combined that with some of the poor choices EA and Lucas Arts have made in the past and I fear TOR will not be the MMO savior that so many hope it will be.
I hope it is a fun game though, I hope that those who play it can enjoy it just as a game and not attach to it some "chosen-one" (pun intended) banner that really will onlt drive more casual players away. I'm sure in sales alone it will be finacially successful in the short term at least.
The main problem with MMO's since WoW is mainly the endgame, its completly meaningless and has no point to bothering. IMO Why bother going thru the stress to raid etc where there is NO OTHER USE for said gear? To me the best endgame a game ever had was DAoC, you raided, got gear (Before spellcrafting), and went out for massive realm vs realm pvp, which also offered realm skills as a alternate advancement, what made it meaningful is how many keeps your realm had, gave realm wide bonuses. Another good endgame is fallen earth, some raids, LOTS of pvp stuff. Something for everyone. IMO for pvping raid gear needs to be the best and none of this wow-like garbage with having a special set of pvp gear and crap.
Sadly there hasn't been a game with decent real endgame in a long time I personally don't call killing some brainless boss over and over fun or intersting, the first time in a raid be fun, MAYBE the 2nd time, after that it just gets stale, but hey some morons do the same raid like 10-20 times for 1 piece of gear that really doesn't have a use once you get it.
People bragged when I played wow about their 1337 raid gear, and when I ask "SO now that you got this uber gear what use is it to you?" and most of the time they go completly silent like it just dawned on them that they have wasted their time. Some will say it lets them access higher raids, then I just reply with "When you get the gear from yet another carrot-on-a-stick raid, again what use is it to you other than raids? nothing" You could try to pvp with it in wow, but someone in pvp gear will stomp you most likely.
I posted in LFGame on here about looking for a mmo with meaningful endgame and people told me quite frankly "It doesn't exist" Which I am sad to say is true. I think a game should offer both types of endgame, and someone who spends weeks raiding for gear to pvp should be stronger than someone not willing to do it. Most free to play mmo's are a prime example, they usually have nothing for you to do once your max level, Some do like some of the games at perfect world, guild vs guild land control and such, but most "f2P" mmo's with pvp like this usually end up being pay to win. As in whoever spends more in the cash shop is probally going to win a fight.
On Another note I really wish devs would stop making these generic wow-like mmorpgs using diffrent wrappers, GW2, SW: ToR, Rift, your not fooling anyone who has a brain, Do your own thing and stop trying to copy the current top dog, people would like to play a mmo that at least doesn't have the "I feel like I have done this before" type feeling to it. At least I'd like to play a mmorpg that feels like that, if the dev even makes an attempt to do something orignal makes me happy. Unless its a total failure at it like Eve, I got bored after a few days because pretty much all I was doing was clicking menu's that cluttered up my screen. Was thinking of trying Perpetuum since there is more of a direct control for combat than Eve had, and its also alot less menu intensive.
A good example of how NOT to make a mmorpg is Eden Eternal at Aeriagames, you bascally do the same stuff from lv 1 to 50 and beyond, get quests kill a few mobs turn in quests, no pvp, nothing else at all to do, yeah it just released but still, people have hit cap in less than a week and now have nothing to do really. I really should get back into EQ2, the Alternate Advancedment system kept me interested, and the fact you can temp lv down though your much stronger than someone that lv legit was fun when you'd rip thru lower level dungeons you may have missed.
Being a pessimist is a win-win pattern of thinking. If you're a pessimist (I'll admit that I am!) you're either:
A. Proven right (if something bad happens)
or
B. Pleasantly surprised (if something good happens)
Either way, you can't lose! Try it out sometime!
Don't get me wrong I played GW1 for a few years off an on, great game... I am just burnt out on medival fantasy, I need apocolyptic, space, zombies....anything but more knights in shinning armor and more wizards with xyz fireballs. I have been gaming for over 15 years, the only other non-medival fantasy type setting that intrigued me for any length was SWG (Pre-NGE) Before and ever since it has been fantasy that has attracted me. Time for a change and I am sure many feel this way. Need a fresh new universe that is compelling enough to entertain me for years to come.
Except those 10 days are also spent doing exploration, travel times, crafting, NPC talking, dungeons etc... If in WoW you were to solidly do quests with no interupts, it would be like 3-4 days instead. In Vanilla WoW there were about 1000 quests. So a number more than that isn't doing too bad.
Don't forget that GW2 also has the personal story, 10+ minigames such as barbrawls or kegball, achievements etc... All of which WoW didn't have at release or still doesn't have.
I couldn't disagree more. I'm sure TOR will be a great game, but it won't be changing anything aside from the storytelling (even though that's more that could be said for many other MMOS in the past decade). MMOs such as GW2 or TSW have this kind of potential, especially the former which doesn't have a subscription fee. No need to rule them out.
I'm of the opinion that EVE might be in trouble, not because of the cash shop issues or even the subscription drops. Overpriced cash shop just smells of management who needs money and a lot of it right away. Just call it a hunch on my part.
GW2 will do well because of its business model. Even though it is a major offering, I still see it as a niche game as opposed to a major player in the industry. Dumping dedicated healers and trinity-tanking is a daring move. In a way I'm expecting the real appeal to be soloable PVE.
SW:TOR... Please don't yell at me, but I'm expecting that it will boil down to WoW with light sabres. In the end I think this will be a good thing, especially if the gameplay is fun. Cata is opening up a huge void of disgruntled ex WoW players who might find this to their liking. I can see it being a hit from the middle school crowd, through the college students, and large chunks of the adults, specifically IT professionals.
Rift is in my opinion the sleeper of the year. When the world starts figuring out that it didn't flash and die, others will find their way to it. I'm expecting it to see growth... or at very least holding decent numbers.
Most of the others I consider too low to be on my own radar. Archeage (spelling?) videos look fantastic and I hope it ends up being available for the western market.
If you had read my post you should have come away with an understanding of why I singled out TOR. The biggest revolutionary thing that GW2 has going for it is that it has not monthly fee, but that was done already with GW1 and we have already seen how that has and hasn't changed the face of the MMO market place.
I rule these other games out because, at least in NA and Europe none of them stand to have an impact on the MMO market place on the scale of WoW. Love it or hate it, WoW changed the face of MMO's. TOR may have that potential, though I tend to think it will not live up to it.
Edit: I tend to think the sleeper game of 2011 will be Neverwinter, despite the problems Cryptic has had, I have a feeling unleashing their fully functioning player content creator will leave many of us surprised. I had my doubts about it after using the STO version, but if the rumors I'm hearing are true, it is a far more powerful tool. But I doubt it will change the MMO industry drastically.
SWTOR