Will lotro survive?

timeraider

With Guild wars 2 and SWtor coming...will lotro survive this or will the blow to the population be to big?

KroxMalon

bit of a needless vote tbh. Its huge, its allways been huge and fans and other players will stay their. Its good fun solid game, with plenty to do. I dont even play it and I can talk good about it. ( my GF does)

eddieg50

   Well of course as a free to play itr will always have people and their are people who like the Lotro lore so yes it will survive and perhaps grow

Czelaw

Im shure it will. It has a huge player base even after f2p

Joarnaj

Well, it's a top 10 mmorpg in terms of population (probably top 5) and was likely top 10 before it's f2p conversion, and it is an f2p so people can continue to play for little or no cost even if they purchase one of these other games. Honestly, I don't see how any game will put a dent in LotRO's population. It, like WoW,  will likely be brought down by age alone and that is a long way off.

This question really shouldn't be asked of the top mmorpg's (except maybe Rift because it is still new which puts it in a precarious spot) but of older games that are actually struggling like WAR, MO, FF (11 or 14, take your pick) and perhaps even struggling freemium games like EQ2 and AoC.

Sovrath

I think the people who play LOTRO play LOTRO.

Me trying GW2 and SWToR has nothign to do with me picking up LOTRO again when the expansion comes out.

I think the population might dip but this happens whenever a major game is released. then those player play that new game and decide whether to go back or sub to both or go back when the old game has an expansion, etc.

Wickedjelly

Yes, it will survive unless Isengard is a complete debacle.  The amount of players that come back to this game on a regular basis is amazing.  Lots of long time players in this game or players that take breaks and constantly come back to the game.

I really think the only thing that could possibly do this game in at this point is simply the licensing.  Assuming they don't completely screw up content from here on out.

DelCabon

I am planning on playing TOR, but in terms of a fantasy mmo LOTRO is my game of choice. The server that I play on, Landroval, is still well populated and my kinship (guild) is still active and strong. I still have a multitude of friends who have played with me since beta. As long as these realities hold out for me and many others LOTRO will remain a popular title.

timeraider

ok..decided ..im going 50/50 on guild wars 2 and lotro and gonna make the best of it.really hope isengard is what it promises and let the games begin!

JohnnyMotrin

With Turbine's focus freemium + the store, I don't think any subscription game will have a huge impact on Lotro.  The only competition Lotro will have is from another freemium AAA title.  Between the lifers and freemium, Turbine is probably the only thing that will take Lotro down.

itgrowls

Originally posted by Czelaw

Im shure it will. It has a huge player base even after f2p

thats the reason i returned, i love the boosts i can buy in the store and play without the need for monthly fees, just buy the quest hub of the area i am in and im golden, since the expansion (i bought legendary it was a better deal) it unlocked many of the zones right there for me without the need for a hub so i could continue on alts. 

not to mention the sheer awesomeness of the cosmetic system they added.

Paradigm68

Problem with a f2p game is tons of people can remain subbed to it and even play while still losing money. They either have to keep producing content that gets money from current players which can upset the current players or constantly having new players join willing to spend which can be problematic with each new round of MMO releases and the older LOTRO gets.

nyxium

Probably survive. Shocked if it goes bust.

blazin-ace

Well, mmodata.com released their updated subscription and active account numbers (charts V3.4) for the various MMORPGs at the end of last month. Like many, I chose to investigate the health of some of my favorite games. Here is a quick summary for LOTRO.

Before going F2P, LOTRO was sitting on 220,000 subscribers.  At the release of F2P that number climbed to 540,000 “active accounts.”  However, in the last six months that number has fallen sharply to 352,000 active accounts and is yet to show any signs of bottoming out or stabilizing…

352.000 active accounts is still half again more player population than the game started into F2P with. I can’t determine rote or stable income from that number as it includes both subs and F2P accounts.

What worries me is that the decline in player population is yet to show signs of bottoming out or lord forbid growing. Very few games on the market are showing consistent growth year to year and those stick out in all population tiers charted.

It’s a good game and deserves more players. Let’s see if Isengard can change the flow… We will not know that for six months after release though. Short term figures don’t count for much so don’t pay too much attention to the initial number hype that will follow release. 

HERE is a link to mmodata.com. LOTRO is in the 150,000 to 1,000,000 chart group.

 

jado818

nothing is forever ;p

angerbeaver

Many subscribers pay nothing, and many active accounts are probably life time accounts that just sit there. Like mine.

Lotro was amazing until Radiance and Moria for me. When Helegrod and Rift were end-game it was a blast and fun. Since Moria they released Mirkwood and it was all the same for me. Same instance grind.

If Isengard doesn't make the game refreshing I think they may be in trouble, especially since the people that have been waiting for new content have been waiting a long time.

mikahr

1. mmodata knows squat about how many subs/players game has, cause Turbine never ever released those numbers. Their number is a guesstimate.

 

2. Definition of  "active account":

5. MMOData.net Active Account definition :

For an account to be regarded as active, there must be a completed login into the game server at least once per month.

Also included in this definition are all valid subscriptions in accordance with point 4. MMOData.net Subscription definition.

 

3. LOTRO will survive cause despite flaws it has, quality wise its among top MMOs out there.

 

4. No, i dont actively play LOTRO.

Jackdog

for whatever it is worth LoTRO stays in the top 5 MMOs consistently. I am on a break from it right now due to beta testing another game.  I will return with Isengard and with my lifetime sub it will be on my hard drive as long as a server is running. Still has a thriving and mature community and is the most polished and complex MMO out there in my opinion.

Robsolf

It'll be fine.  I haven't played much in the past few months, but that's because it's Summer.  I stay on long enough to make some food and sell it.  Hope to have lots of dough ready when Isengard releases.

GrumpyMel2

I seriously doubt LOTRO will die. A game has to have really terrible numbers to be killed off completely. I do, however, think this illustrates that F2P was NOT the runaway sucess that many of the suits in Turbine/WB upper managment expected it to be. It did give the game a sort term revenue boost no question, but that boost doesn't seem to have all that much longivity.

I suspect that some folks at Turbine/WB saw what F2P did for DDO and expected the exact same thing to play out with LOTRO. But franly the 2 are very different games and were in very different places with different audiences when they went F2P.

I think it likely the case that F2P may well end up hurting the game in the long term more then it has helped.

I say that because the F2P move was a LONG time in being built and planned (work on it was started a full YEAR before it was announced) and alot of resources went into building and supporting it....and alot of resources are still poured into building and supporting stuff for the store. What could have done had those resources been put toward building new content and new game play systems rather then switching revenue models?  What would the sub base have looked like then?

The main complaint that I heard from players leaving the game was NOT that it was too expensive or that it was a bad game. The main complaint (I felt this myself) was that it was getting STALE, there wasn't enough new and exciting things to do....and the new things that were added in were too small in scope and fealt purposefully designed to be overly grindy.

Heck, even with Isengard....for YEARS we were promised that mounted combat would be put in for when we got to Rohan. Are we getting it?  Would we have got it if they didn't have to expend resources on building out F2P?  How many other things were sacrificed to make that happen?

I hope Isengard is good...because I still really WANT to play LOTRO.....I'm still sub'd...but honestly I've had very little motivation to play in months....simply because I know each day that a log in there will be really nothing different to do then when I last logged in 4 months ago.

Anyway, I'm rooting for Isengard to be great.....but I can't say I don't have a sinking feeling that I'll end up entirely underwhelmed.

 

 

 

 

Greenfiend

Turbine is just doing fine all by itself killing this title off.  Housing it's just a 'framework', add a furniture swiveller so crap dont face off into walls call that a day. PVMP is a diamond in the rough but dont worry we have big plans in the future, shove a pve zone underneath the ettens. Legendary items that grow with your character, so much wrong here not enough room on forums. Poll the players on f2p, massive uproar then shut up about it and just deliver f2p the follow year. Turbine points are purchased with irl cash for all turbine lotro product. Run a turbine point special at a cost similiar to what an expac might cost. Tell people expac preorder is very soon. Soak up cash for the tp then tell everyone the following week preorders with benefits cash only or wait until the expac releases with no benefits and at a higher rate of cash/tp.

While I always take things like mmodata with a grain of salt. It's interesting to note that a different grain of salt, 'google trends' keyword 'lotro' also mirrors what mmodata have to say about p2p/f2p population numbers. Spike at launch, attrition over the years, launch f2p spike in numbers then a crash thats still free falling. While google trends is not a population graph it does allude to a gamers interest in the title. Many have heard of lotro and checked up on it and followed different phases but have little interest to go back and take another look.

Lotro will have its lifers and all those f2p'ers. The launch of swtor/gw2 perhaps tsw won't be the lotro killers but they gonna hurt. But even if those titles don't launch lotro is hurting. All those interested in playing lotro have done so. Any new players dont overcome attrition of those leaving or play time so dimished that its just a fancy chat program.

TBH i'm frustrated with how Turbine handled this golden grand daddy of franchise opportunities and turned it into a failing f2p grinder. Oh well so be it. Swtor for this gamer maybe ea/bio can do better.

 

Jackdog

Originally posted by Greenfiend

Lotro will have its lifers and all those f2p'ers. The launch of swtor/gw2 perhaps tsw won't be the lotro killers but they gonna hurt. But even if those titles don't launch lotro is hurting. All those interested in playing lotro have done so. Any new players dont overcome attrition of those leaving or play time so dimished that its just a fancy chat program.

 LoTRO stays in the low 20's on XFire, same place it has been for months and months

it will jump back into the low teens withthe release of the new expansion then over the course of 4 or 4 months drift back dow ot the twenties again , just as it has been doing since release

same people been predicting LoTROs demise on here since before it released. So it has never even went into the thirties on XFire :::shrug:::

 

Greenfiend

True that. It'll bump for the expac then settle back. But after the expac goes a month or 3 the server pop settles to below the previous levels. The f2p helped but not really on old med pop servers. Peeps did the big3 or started new generally.

IMHO when turbine changed the game from group focus with a few tough areas thrown in (early angmar/old forest) it was a more challenging and fun game compared to todays solo grinder (grind rep grind skirimishes grind traits, group for gear but grind gs) which doesn't seem to hold the new peeps as long in game.

I hope it does well, after all i'm one of those non existance full time creep players ( i try pve every 6 months or so just can't do it). So it'd be nice to have pvmp to log into once and awhile. TBH if they poured money in to revamp pvmp I would stay and pay. But that ship sailed its not gonna happen for the forseeable future.

Unknown

Originally posted by Joarnaj

It, like WoW,  will likely be brought down by age alone and that is a long way off.

First of all, LotRO has a mature look with mature looking characters. WoW in relation with LotRO is a cartoon. So I don't think it will ever become attractive for 16 year olds with behavioral problems.

 

Next to that the gaming community is still increasing as far as I know. First of all developing countries are growing and next to that the Western community I think is still growing, as older people generally don't play and more and more younger people reach a suitable age AND maturity for LotRO.

 

I think the future for LotRO is a strong, loyal mmorpg player base where people will come back playing.

 

I think that if anything will bring down LotRO it would be the too low price, meaning that the game becomes too cheap where it was supposed to be about high quality. Luckily it is too difficult for most players to keep F2P, which is justified becuase for nothing the sun goes up! Be happy for a free ride to lvl 30 or so

seabass2003

A good barometer to tell how a game is doing is to report and obvious naming violation. If they come back and say the name is fine then most likely the game is hurting as they don't want to punish someone. If they come back saying thanks for helping us and force a name change then most likely they are still doing ok. Of couse this isn't a fool-proof barometer but it seems to be the most accurate portrayal. Give it a try.

Akiye

It will be fine just like every other mmo. Games over 10years old are still around and kicking.