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The State of the MMO Industry or "Why Can't I Have My MMO Equivalent to Battlefield 3?!"
BigBadWolfe
Member Posts: 143
First of all, I acknowledge that this topic has probably been beaten to death, especially on this forum, so feel free to skip it, flame it or whatever if you're not interested. However I do want to keep this thread as informative as humanly possible in the meantime.
So the Video game industry is actually looking pretty good, more people are playing games then ever, and there has been more exciting and innovative (not revolutionary) games coming out for each devoted genre. However, I personally feel MMOs are lagging behind the pack. As much as I'm looking forward to both SW:TOR and Guild Wars 2, I can't help but wonder, "is this really as good as it gets? Where's my equivalent to COD / Battlefield 3 MMO?" Keep in mind I'm not talking about an MMOFPS, I'm talking about AAA big budget titles that are really pushing the genre in stunning visuals but also online features. Games that are going to blow their predecessors out of the water and basically raise the bar for what the genre can achieve. But even if you don't even like those two games, there's so many FPS games coming out, it's like a birthday every month in FPS land, literally something for everybody. But it's not just FPSes, E-sports games (RTS, Fighting games, MOBA, etc) are gaining a lot of steam, action games, and sports games, are always doing well. The only real genre that kind of fell through was the Guitar Hero/ Rock Band type games, which is sad, I don't know why that happened, but I have a feeling that if GW2 and SW:TOR don't achieve corporate expectations, that our beloved genre will be next.
So what exactly is the problem (if there is) with the MMO genre? Why is it so hard to make a really good MMO that can please the fanbase? I'm very happy to see Bioware tossing their hat into the ring, but I want to mention another high profile company called Square-Enix that announced a MMO and had previous MMO experience, yet somehow produced the worse MMO in gaming history! Why all the screw ups? Is it poor Company strategies? Is it a fickle community? Is it hardware limitations? Possibly the unwarranted social stigma mmo players face from other communities?
I've talked to people that claimed they have been playing MMOs for over 10 years, some even said 20 years and are already on their way out. How much longer do we have to wait before we can reach and enjoy our MMO golden age that other genres have already achieved, or has our golden age passed already?
Comments
Isn't that TOR/GW2? I mean EA + Bioware are 2x AAA publishers with huge budgets. Arenanets isn't too bad either.
This is simple honestly..
First, you can play all of BF3/COD3 is what? 8 hours? not even that I emagin.. and then it's repetitive online play. So easy to finish in a year.. New engin? great np.. because FPS gamers are hardcore and have the systems to play that kinda power..
Now then, MMO's take.. 4-6 years to make. You need at least a couple hundred hours.. more like 1000. And you have to have a wide enough playerbase that you actualy MAKE MONEY.. esp all the money spent in 5 years of dev. Do you see the issues? Even if you started out cutting edge tech.. in 5 years.. it's not. SImple.. Also you can't make a game with insane grafics.. look at EQ2 AOC, VANGUARD.... they went down in flames because no one could make them run right. No Dev is going to throw down 100mil on making a game that looks awsome.. and no one will play. Thats like lighting your money on fire.
So why don't we have MMO's as great as FPS? Is this really that hard to understand? It's all about TIME mate... TIME...
many people seem to think wow's success will never be duplicated.
the problem with this is it seems that most other games have a hard time getting enough traction because of this and are unable to develop beyond release the way wow has (or copy games that come after)
as I said in another post, WAR should have been a good enough game. but, it didn't generate enough traction to sustain meaningful development because .. why play something so similar? Rift came close because it was polished as heck, and a strong game .. but still not enough it seems (still yet to be seen I guess, but for me, not enough).
then you have the fact that it appears to be very risky to not clone wow
with WAR for me, there was just no reason to play an incomplete game, with less content (even if some of it was arguably better) long enough for them to "catch up"
swtor could be that game too, but for me, I doubt it will be.
LSS: idk
LFD tools are great for cramming people into content, but quality > quantity.
I am, usually on the sandbox .. more "hardcore" side of things, but I also do just want to have fun. So lighten up already
I wouldn't say FPS players have hardcore systems. Most "Hardcore"/competetive fps players still play CS 1.6/CSS. Most people that play BF/MW are console players/casuals because the "hardcore" players know those games are crap.
The problem is the players (Majority) involved. If they stopped asking for, and accepting garbage....the suits/dev's would alter their model accordingly or not make money. Sadly, they are currently taking it in the microtransaction/cash shop direction.
Probably forever. The Golden Age is gone and likely not to return. Players are more interested in making MMORPG's glorified console action adventures and have no clue what once seperated MMO's from the console genre......sadly.
First off you can ask every developer, company and even those damn fat suits everyone will tell you, making a MMORPG is the hardest and most expensive thing you can think off in this industry.
BF and CoD are different, they are based on very smallish singleplayer stories and after that you can play the whole thing over and over and over online. Quality of both is ridiculous they are based around hype and not actually quality yes, I'm saying they lack quality. Last CoD I really liked has been CoD 4 still playing and loving it, but oh boy EA and Activision are slaughtering both franchises with yearly releases.
Don't fool yourself MMORPGS can look extremely well (Aion, Vanguard, Lineage 2 and Aoc (though hate their armor style)) don't think crappy graphics are going to cut it, just cause WoW had them every CEO is thinking "yeah lets use crappy cartoony cheap graphics and we'll get more people" this is so stupid. Aion on max settings had more FPS than WoW for me and even more than Rift...so gfx is about how well you implement the engine, which is really difficult.
Another huge problem is the one game for everyone philosophy I really really thought, companies would have learned something since the Warhammer failure, sadly not.
You don't hear lets make another Cocacola in the industry because everyone knows they have been the first and no product will ever come close to them but still the MMORPG industry thinks, cloning WoW or making games for everyone (which is impossible!) is the way to go...
As long as suits are the CEOs of gaming companies and former great studios keep selling theirselves to devils such as EA, Soe or Activision...we won't move forward.
We need a MMORPG Cataclysm asap, finish the dark age of MMORPGS now!
"Everything you're bitching about is wrong. People don't have the time to invest in corpse runs, impossible zones, or long winded quests. Sometimes, they just want to pop on and play."
"Then maybe MMORPGs aren't for you."
The answer isw simply, compare content and the amount of players from single/multiplayer games compared to MMORPG's and there is your answer. To be honost if people don't understand this then they have no idea what it takes to create a MMORPG.
I have said this for years, MMORPG leap about 3/4 years behind single/multiplayer games and most likely never will catch up due to the complexity when developing a MMORPG and ever evolving tech in all genre's.
There is a multi-faceted response to your question.
1. Time and Resources
Unlike your local COD or MW FPS shooter, MMO's take longer times to develop; they are more complicated games, they require more support, more manpower, and the whole deal. You are talking about supporting a vast amount of players to be playing at once simultaneously 24/7. You must make sure the game is bug free when it comes out. Thats not an easy feat.
And its not just time and resources for publishers/developers, but for the players. Call of Duty is a 1 time buy, thats it, you play it, you get your fill, its over. MMOs on the other hand, its an investment. You're going to be paying montly, or even worse, through the item mall. Thats alot of money in the long run.
But, more importantly....
2. Lack of Innovation!!!
The MMo industry, believe it or not, is in trouble. Its amazing to see the stark differences between MMOs and the other genres of games - FPS, fighting, sports, etc all doing well and MMO's are beggining to implode.
Is World of Warcraft to blame? Partly. It's success was so high, so massive, that it spawned *loads* of shameless clones. These clones were and are made just to make a quick buck and ride on the success train of WoW. Some of them succeeded, but most of them eventually fail. Unfortunately, its continued like this.
You see, once WoW became successful, it provided a blueprint for publishers to make their games. Its not the developers who are really to blame in the lack of creativity in these games, but the publishers (much like how movies go terribly wrong, its sometimes NOT the writers' fault). The publishers all see money signs when thinking of how WoW operates.
This has pidgeonholed the entire MMO industry into a very one track mind with little creativity or innovation in their new games.
Unfortunately for these publishers, when players are buying a "new" game, they want something "new". Some players are becoming tired with the same old same old. Some aren't. But the fact of the matter is, WoW captured that part of the market and now, everyone has been doing the same thing.
I used the restaurant anology and I will do it again. WoW is like McDonalds. They are all over the place. EVE is a privately run neighborhood restaurant.
New games like TOR are trying to become the new Burger King. A different version of WoW-McDonalds. But what they arent realizing, is that they are marginalizing a larger and larger portion of gamers who are getting sick of Big Macs and Whoppers and want to try the steaming hot stir fried chicken around the corner.
But publishers and developers do not want to make that kind of food and maybe even forgot how to make them. Its sad. If they dont stop marginalizing the larger and larger growing base of jaded, burnt out players who are sick of the raiding and honor-grinding treadmill, the genre will continue to implode.
And you know, I'll be honest, I havent been on these forums in awhile - like 2 years - and its SPOOKY.. Alot of the old posters are just gone. Up and left. I remember one poster here - I believe his name was "Lobotomist" said that he is done with MMO's unless the direction changes, and just left the forum. Others did as well. I know I did. MMO's have lost all heart and soul. They are just money-grinders.
Pyros21 and Reklaw pretty much covered it.
As far as graphics go, single-player and multiplayer environments offer the freedom of much more controlled scenes. In COD or BF3, the developer has far more control over the number of polies and textures that will be rendered in each scene. In an MMO, you can have 40-100 levels worth of gear and objects to account for in a scene that could have 5, 50 or even a couple hundred characters in it... with pets, mounts, particle effects and any number of emotes/animations going on.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
Sometimes people see what they want to see.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
You cannot compare fps visuals with mmo visuals, because fps game have tiny maps with like 30 gamers max on them, in mmos you are talking about huge maps like rl life countries and thousands of players on them, you have some siege with like 200 to 500 gamers few screens aways from each others.
The problem with mmo is that the devs have locked down the genre into a themepark formula that design mmos as if they are arcade games, but they are not, they are supposed to be rpg games; whatever people rp or not this doesn't matter because it is about game concept. So poeple feel that, even if many don't grasp it totally (most gamer never played anything else than themeparks), but they understand something is wrong with the genre and express it.
Fps games never had this problem. So it is more a problem of the past than a problem of the furtur imo. Mmo dev team are pretty much tighted down to a formula because it is supposed to mean "commercial success" (we all know its a porr excuse but nvm), and don't really have room to move and let the genre evolve as it should, this mean as the mmoRPG genre, rather than a multiplayer arcade genre.
Look at the non trinity combat system for ex, even thought this was prooved a perfectly good concept in mmo (first mmo didn't have trinity and still have the best combat systems), some people just plain refuse it, they want their dedicated healer and their tank and thats it. In real world its pretty much the same with anything that is out the mainstream, people will just refuse to even try them plainly, making a huge list of stupid claims, when they just could have taken the same time to try out and see they are just wrong. But they just won't, up untill it is accepted by a majority, and even then would have the feeling this is forced on them and will be very negative and make a lot of tiny and stupid critics, even if they have to admit the system is far superior and enjoyable.
Fps games never went the "wrong" way, when it come to development so they pretty much steadily advance at each release. In mmo they are like make 2 step backward for each step forward, simply because the main game concept 'themepark model" just don't fit the genre as it should. I will make up an exemple, imagine that after Quake, a good % of gamer would have whined so much about the agressivness of fps games that they managed to impose an other design to the genre, let say they managed to turn out fps game into a riddle type of game ala Portal (portal is a great game, it is just an exemple here). So now imagine 90% of the fps games turned to be about riddles today, no wonder the 10% left of the fps gamer would cry and the overall fps gamer would feel very inconfortable about their genre. Its a bit the same with themepark and mmorpg. Imo themepark would have been great if they stayed at 10% of the overall mmorpg that come out, but they are 90% of the builds, more like 99% in fact. TRy to find a rpg centric mmo for exemple in the market, is their even one? i don't think so. No wonder why the genre just go backward.
I dont really think its that hard to make an MMORPG, it cant be that hard, only because the determining factor that is most difficult lies in server stablity of multiple players around a "Field of View" from a persons relative prepective (to use WoW as an example, people moving around pressing "hit or miss" actions on the other side of a zone is not even processed for people fighting on the opposite side of that same zone)
A game like planetside I can see being more difficult, its just one open world battleground with hundreds of players assulting in the same "Field of view" (around a base) with people's computers having to macro and micro manage every bullet and side step that a FPS process demands, at the same time! Many more processes are required to make a MMOFPS work well
Current Classical MMORPGs by where you press a buttion to do "ONE" single action at a time is all that is needed to process data over a network (plus movement, but can be processed generaly, not percisely like in a FPS) thus a company that creates a MMORPG does not need to invest in load intensive servers to accomodate massive data transmissions of a mini gun going off and calculating evey bullet as a hit or miss. Of course a Classic MMORPG will use a hit or miss burst concept with a cooldown. it will cost less on the server end
I think the WoW game set of press 1 to do action "A" and press 2 to do action "B" works well for a 56k modem, and people who are unable to develop "twitch" skills will benifit in this enviroment and it encourages the limited bandwith metholodgy to MMO development that we see still today.
Second, PvP play balance can be a costly challenge, less classes vs less factions means lower cost to manage. thats why we will not ever see a non instanted open world game MMOFPS with 10 factions for example. SWTOR, has 4 classes vs 4 classes over just 2 factions in a WoW classical format, that says to me low budget. espically for a 2011/2012 game; I would expect that setup for a 2004 game (but its Star Wars! and its Bioware!) that in itself allows a company like EA to maximize it profits and cut cost, thus it REDUCES development and innovation, why wouldnt they do that? If you wear a suit, you know what I mean........ "Innovation cost money, dont do it unless you have to", Not just SWTOR, but pretty much all MMOs in the last 5 years have following the same pattern as I described..
As for running high end graphics is not hard to do for a game, its depends on the average users processing power which with graphics, all can be scaled. the bandwith would be more a tech issue
So to say a MMORPGs are hard to make is false, I think business are "Milking" the perception that consumers think its hard to make a MMORPG. The creation of todays MMORPaS are created on a skeleton crew of devs with a maximation of profit through in game stores and subscriptions. IF you dont agree, then why is it not being done now? where is the profit motive to make a hight quality MMORPG with originalty? Where is the Quality? Quanity is less costly to do, assembly line it baby!!! Yea that really innovative, Ford was innovative, but that was a long time ago........
Right now Quanity is the higest gain to maximum profit, not Quality......... its that simple
MMOS are Rubber Stamped like Music, and Movies are nowadays
Don't give the FPS industry too much credit, the players who have been around for a while are not all that happy with what BF3 and MW3. Call of Duty modern warfare series have always been a joke to the hardcore FPS fans, since it doesn't really use aspects such as recoil and bullet drop making it feel too much like an arcade game and removes any level of skill in online matches. Call of Duty is just the World of Warcraft of FPS world with better graphics, have the biggest share of the market but keep coming out with same old recycled content.
I have played thousands of hours of Battlefield games starting with BF1942 and it was always a good balance of fun and realism online, along to latest graphics. But the first major hit to the series came when Bad Company 2 was released, which turned out just to be a console port with slightly improved graphics. Smaller maps, less players and pretty much destroyed the feel of other battlefield games due to lack of vehicles and smaller scale in general. Battlefield 3 was looking great, but it is yet again a dumbed down console version of the game. Releasing more than 6 years after BF2, it is still limited to 64 players despite current systems easily being able to handle more. The maps for the PC version are larger, but they are mostly empty areas such as airfields and uncap bases where combat wont be happening. DICE simply didn't want to create too much disparity between consoles and PC and are saving time and money by only adding minimal amount of content to the PC version of the game. Among other problems EA has been creating many absurd new rules for the game such as being forced to use Origins to launch it, have only one soldier and not making an ingame server browser for the game. If you look at any BF3 forum, you wont be seeing too much praise for it.
Battlefield 3 will still no doubt be fun, but other than the graphics it could have been much more. For all the problems with the MMO industry you may have, you should be happy that MMOs have not yet made their way to consoles. If it ever happens, MMOs will quickly start getting scaled down and even more casual to play.
It's just two lines of code.
There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
"Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre
I want to say that these responses make me sick to my stomach. Not that I'm disagreeing with any of you, but I was hoping that there would be some rays of sunshine, some sort of hope for the industry to keep MMORPGers going. It seems like the whole MMO development process is borked beyond repair, and even if the industry is able to maintain it, MMOs might have to turn into a completely different animal from the games we fell in love with.
The majority of video gaming industry is experiencing a nice heavy growth, but I pointed out FPSes because this genre seems to be producing the most variety of big budget, content packed games with tons of online features, and dlc support compared to other genres. I picked out Call of Duty / Battlefield from the group because even if FPS players don't like these games it's very much accepted that these games are gonna sell like crazy. Even if they did fail nobody would care, because there's tons of other AAA titles coming down the pike (I heard they are making a new Counter Strike) for FPS fans.
But what about us? All we got is SW:TOR, and GW2, both really good games that will definitely sell of course, but what about retention? I don't know about you guys but I thought the whole point was for Devs to get us hooked on their virtual worlds and invest our time and money in, and grow our characters with the rest of the community. If these companies keep developing MMOs that can't hold the bulk of their sub's attention passed the first couple of months, why are they in the business in the first place? Maybe we are better off just sticking to console/arcade type games that take our money for the first month and then the devs and consumers part ways until the next expansion/sequel, instead of us forming a long-term relationship with them.
Alright so MMOs take a lot more money to make then FPS games so they can't take as many risks to be innovative, so in the end we are playing the same games over and over. Then the games themselves take years longer to make so they have to cut down classes and systems, and cut corners so they can finally ship the stupid game. The result is a shoddy, overhyped game at launch. And people are saying stuff like "WoW's success was a one time deal", and maybe the golden era of MMOs has passed. But then they turn around and say "Don't worry about the numbers, just play your game". I'm sorry I do worry about the numbers, because if the consumers are thinking these things about MMOs, what are the investors themselves going to think?
The truth is that I still believe a lot of us are looking forward to that "Savior MMO" that can end the cycle of broken promises/dreams, and be that run away commercial success. Unfortunately we're not getting any younger, and I don't know how much longer we can wait. It HAS to be SW:TOR and/or GW2 whether we love or hate these games, they have to succeed. If these games can't reach/surpass expectations, then I'm seriously afraid for our future.
The highlighted red part if the biggest destroyer of this genre, people hype themselfs far to much, read and collect far to much info that the results will never meet their expectations.
Am I personaly satisfied with the direction of this genre? Nope, but I still can enjoy some of it, will there be a MMORPG that fully will satisfied me again, to me due to my own experiance I'd say perhaps with a MMORPG that might be developed in 5/7 years from now, but knowing and seeing what tech currently can do and that there is a very hugh portion of people into games without high end systems to back it up we have to wait.....sorry, perhaps I am more realistic especially when it comes to this genre, and also due to seeing how people seem to complain these day's
It's tech related. You can't put hundreds of thousands of people in a persistant world, with thousands of unique armor/weapon/character textures to call up from a database.... and generate the graphics/AI/combat mechanics that a game like BF3 or COD does.
Computer requirements would be unrealistically sky high, on both the client and host side. And even as tech progresses, the smaller scale games will always be several steps ahead.
Thats why a lot of MMOs go to shard/instancing systems. You'll notice those games (dollar for dollar spent) tend to have a lot better animations, faster combat, and prettier graphics.
Consider a game like Eve. Do you not think CCP would love to implement a more dynamic combat system, or more customization for individual ships? It's impractical given the scale of their battles and gameworld. The CPU resources required would be astronomical. They already struggle w/ their generic combat system and texture setup, and CCP has a very powerful (and expensive) server cluster setup.
I think what we are seeing is a shift in social views. Society is rejecting these games because they no longer fit together. You ask about retention, saying the games are to blame. But retention is exactly opposite of social trends of entertainment. There are so many more options in entertainment now than there were 10+ years ago. Just sitting in front of my computer I can watch any of thousands of movies on netflix, watch hundreds of tv shows, watch music videos on youtube, have my pick of thousands of "quality" free flash games, and I haven't even gotten to the plethora of $1-$5 games I've gotten off steam and never touched. 10 years ago I had solitare, minesweeper, EQ and a dial-up connection, obviously that game would have retention.
It is so much more difficult to keep people's attention nowadays, is it any mystery that games that are centered around a 30 minute beginning to end session are doing extremely well? Even the 'hardcore' competitive games are based around best of 5 or best of 7 short 30+ minute matches. The whole "30 minutes per source of entertainment" goes completely against what MMORPGs have been founded on, so you have MMORPGs turning back into single player games where a 30 minute playtime can get you some progress.
I hate it all as much as you, but its one of the changes I've observed. I personally liked it when I wasn't being pulled in a million different directions at once for where to spend my time and money, but people have adapted and the majority of people don't want to spend 4+ hours spinning their wheels corpse running. They want in, 30 minutes, out, done and something to show for it.
"They essentially want to say 'Correlation proves Causation' when it's just not true." - Sovrath
I'm so glad you posted this (lol, btw).
Matticus;
I cannot think of a word suitable for summing up the stupidity of your post, so I'll try three:
You're a moron.
Thanks for your constructive input on the fact that you seem to understand why and that it properly explained
Developing MMO's which are probably the most costly games is a slow and tidy oprocess, Star Wars online and GW2 where on the drawing boards over 5 years ago... would they have been released back then they would have been revolutionary games.... Personally i still think GW2 will revolutionise a lot....and its kind of innovative..
But in general the MMO scene works more liek an evolution instead of being innovative and reinventing itself with every other game... MMO developers choose what they think was good about a game and improve uppon that... Thats a very healthy concept of developing things..
Next to that, i'd take a Whopper over a Big Mac any day.... these 2 burgers are in a different league my friend... one tastes like nothing and is popular with little kids for their gifts, while the other still tastes like meat and beef and in general is the place that grown ups prefer. With choosing this comparrison your points go totally wasted... BK rules in my world together with KFC, while only Noobs like my little daughter want to drag me to MCD...
Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)
BS The MMO industry has lots of Innovation like Shadowbane,The Chroncicles of the Spellborn,Fury and APB or Ryzom,Fallen Earth,Earthrise or Mortal Online.Those games are either dead or small games.The truth of the matter gamers don't really want innovation i have played Rifts where tons of players ask for the 3 soul system to be limited and complaints when warriors do dps or rogues tank and every new mmo i have played they are always people asking for features found in other old mmos.
PS People while you are make McDonalds and Buger King,Wendies refrences the largest fast food chain is SUBWAY not Mcdonalds.It is kinda funny now that Subway which is healthy and has large varitey of choices.Also there is bit irony that people really like Mcdonalds and while the food is better at the Neighboorhood restaurant you get also charged 40 dollars for good meal for a family and still have tip your waiter how often can you real eat there.
As usal people misunderstand why McDonalds and now Subway are popular is not about quality of food it is about ease of access and price.You don't really get tired of easy or convenient especially is when it is cheap.When you do get tired of easy the next easy thing is normally around ala McDonalds to Subway.Nothing can compare to a good raid in Sandbox game or good pvp fight in a sandbox they are epic and legendary but when only 10% of your population experiances it and takes days maybe weeks for it happen a lot of fun factor is lost.While on other hand when 90% of population can experiance good content not great content and this content is pretty deliver daily anytime you want it increase the fun players can have.Ease beats quailty especially when use easy to use thing has way better quailty than given credit for which is the case with big summer movies,pop music,fast food and theme park Wow style mmo.
[quote]Originally posted by Matticus75
So to say a MMORPGs are hard to make is false, I think business are "Milking" the perception that consumers think its hard to make a MMORPG. The creation of todays MMORPaS are created on a skeleton crew of devs with a maximation of profit through in game stores and subscriptions. IF you dont agree, then why is it not being done now?
[/b][/quote]
Bahahahahaha!
Great post man, great post. Take a look at TOR's funding and tell me about their skeleton crew.
Ignoring the technical issues (which are substantial), you generally don't know how a game will function when you throw 1000 players together, all interacting, logging on and off, over an extended period of time. This makes the design hard as well.
Seriously, battlefield 3, and all the other non-mmo games, are basically re-implementing a solved problem. Solved problems are easy to solve - you just look up how to do it.
The problem is devs of mmos think they are a solved problem - when they are perhaps fundamentally unsolvable. A key element of MMO's is persistence. How in the heck can you have persistence when people are logging on and off all the time? So anyway, devs look at successful games as a template, because the game design problems are difficult, and if they can just follow a previous successful template, maybe they will be successful. But a successful template doesn't necessarily mean that it's the right one, or that in 2011 we are ready for a new one.
I don't think MMo's will die as a genre, but the current template being used might. Some would actually disagree with the OP and say that the next batch of games are altering the template quite a bit.
The current problem with the industry is that everyone thinks larger budgets means better products. The reality is that larger budgets means more risk adverse investment since the accumulation of capital depends on investors with low time preference (Human Action by L. Mises). But if your investors have a high time preference, getting them to sit and wait for the expected rate of return isn't going to happen, they can easily put that money toward any other market or industry with more reliable rates of return in the same time frame. If you want less risk adverse investors and firms, then expect to play indie games which don't have the high end graphics like Crysis or the polish of WoW.