TSW doesn't target at all the same players than WoW, SWTOR (or even GW2). They could very well do like CCP with Eve Online: find 100k-500k loyal fans of spooky/conspiracy game that would happily pay the subscriptions for years.
EVE started out very very very small. It is why early members are so loyal, those first 10,000 players were basically devs, QA and marketing. TSW is much more of a normal launch.. testers under NDA and an actual launch date... they also spent a great deal of money developing the game. Eve was more like a garage project gone viral.
I think if Funcom had changed their company name, TSW might have a chance. But there are just so many people who are not going to give it a chance because of Funcom. it is going to launch with very low subs, which means they won´t have a dev team large enough to fix what is broken or add new content. Games can survive with 100k players, but you aren´t going to have enough devs and qa to be anything but life support compared to most MMOs.
it is going to launch with very low subs, which means they won´t have a dev team large enough to fix what is broken or add new content. Games can survive with 100k players, but you aren´t going to have enough devs and qa to be anything but life support compared to most MMOs.
I don't think so. Sure, a number of people will avoid TSW because they never were able to let go of their hatred/grudge towards FC, but a lot of people aren't affected it besides being more wary and not overhyped. If the launch is good, then that'll be all they care about, AoC's launch soon forgotten in the mists of history. Besides, TSW has enough stuff to poke the interest of MMO gamers.
As for the 100k, I doubt that'll be the number that TSW will open with, but even if it's a number of 100k subs after 3-6 months, enough MMO companies have proven in the past 10 years to fully support an MMO with content updates and expansions with that amount of players.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I'm going to say they'll change the model approximately six months after release. The fact that it will be going toe-to-toe with heavyweights like SWTOR and GW2 is going to affect their sales dramatically. Coupled with an abysmal launch, they're going to have real trouble keeping it together. I'm only speculating on the launch. They could surprise me, but my confidence in FC being able to pull it off is pretty much nil. But it's the competition that will be the deciding factor, and it's going to be pretty damned stiff.
If they'd managed to release last year when the only thing they had to worry about was Rift or DCUO, they would have been in a much better position to overcome a poor launch and generate some ongoing fan support before the juggernauts weighed in. They won't have that luxury next year. I think they'll try to hold on as long as they can and will end up switching over, the following January.
I'm with you on this one. 6 months at the highest and I am not not so confident of Funcom having the intention of delivering a polished product intended to last a "lifetime" either.
Normally Funcom would get off on a good start due to their infamous hype machine but they will launch in shark infested waters this time: Skyrim, D3, GW2, Swtor and who knows what else, are all highly anticipated AAA releases in our neck of the gaming woods. And neither of those is sub based with a cash shop.
They seem to like the AoC model of luring players in with a F2P model, and then treating them like crap no matter how much they spend on their ridiculously overpriced item shop, so that they'll eventually pay for a sub, too. It's a seriously flawed form of F2P, and I don't see it working too well in the long run, but looks like TSW may take a similar approach almost right away.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
A solid 24 months. If it's not good enough to keep subs that long, I'll be highly disappointed. I suppose they could go freemium sooner, with an AoC type setup, and make more money even if it is still going strong, but I'm hoping they won't. And after two years (that's almost a century in MMO years these days), it's fine if it does go freemium, whatever keeps enough money rolling in so they can keep adding content.
I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy, accompanied by an educational system which would be oriented toward social goals.
I really dont understand why some have such a hard on against cash shops its not like there makeing you use them and if all they sell is differnt outfits and maybe a exp buff or potions its all part of the game now they just need to get off there high horse and live with it. the shops are not going away and if that makes you not want to play so be it have a nice day and have fun in what you want to do.
I'm going to say they'll change the model approximately six months after release. The fact that it will be going toe-to-toe with heavyweights like SWTOR and GW2 is going to affect their sales dramatically. Coupled with an abysmal launch, they're going to have real trouble keeping it together. I'm only speculating on the launch. They could surprise me, but my confidence in FC being able to pull it off is pretty much nil. But it's the competition that will be the deciding factor, and it's going to be pretty damned stiff.
If they'd managed to release last year when the only thing they had to worry about was Rift or DCUO, they would have been in a much better position to overcome a poor launch and generate some ongoing fan support before the juggernauts weighed in. They won't have that luxury next year. I think they'll try to hold on as long as they can and will end up switching over, the following January.
I'm with you on this one. 6 months at the highest and I am not not so confident of Funcom having the intention of delivering a polished product intended to last a "lifetime" either.
Normally Funcom would get off on a good start due to their infamous hype machine but they will launch in shark infested waters this time: Skyrim, D3, GW2, Swtor and who knows what else, are all highly anticipated AAA releases in our neck of the gaming woods. And neither of those is sub based with a cash shop.
The big thing about AOC was that it re-enforeced the AO bad launch. In the run-up to AOC, a lot of people were saying that surely Funcom learned something from the AO launch, but in my opinion, the AOC launch was not only bad from a technical standpoints (lots of bugs and system issues), but the outright lying done by Funcom regarding content, and the underhanded way they tricked the media and beta testers (only allowing us to play Tortage, the only part of the game that was actually finished).
There is not another game being launched that screams ´beware!! wait a month after launch to purchase until you have heard actual player feedback´.. So you have a lot of people going to try more trusted publishers like Bioware, and then you have a lot of people like myself who are interested in this game, but have NO chance of purchasing it at least until a month after launch...
I think it will go free2play as soon as they have content ready to be added to the store that a lot of people will want to play... I am guessing 6-12 months... not because subscribers will be high until that time, but simply because I don´t think they will have content ready for the store until then.
Comments
EVE started out very very very small. It is why early members are so loyal, those first 10,000 players were basically devs, QA and marketing. TSW is much more of a normal launch.. testers under NDA and an actual launch date... they also spent a great deal of money developing the game. Eve was more like a garage project gone viral.
I think if Funcom had changed their company name, TSW might have a chance. But there are just so many people who are not going to give it a chance because of Funcom. it is going to launch with very low subs, which means they won´t have a dev team large enough to fix what is broken or add new content. Games can survive with 100k players, but you aren´t going to have enough devs and qa to be anything but life support compared to most MMOs.
I don't think so. Sure, a number of people will avoid TSW because they never were able to let go of their hatred/grudge towards FC, but a lot of people aren't affected it besides being more wary and not overhyped. If the launch is good, then that'll be all they care about, AoC's launch soon forgotten in the mists of history. Besides, TSW has enough stuff to poke the interest of MMO gamers.
As for the 100k, I doubt that'll be the number that TSW will open with, but even if it's a number of 100k subs after 3-6 months, enough MMO companies have proven in the past 10 years to fully support an MMO with content updates and expansions with that amount of players.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I'm with you on this one. 6 months at the highest and I am not not so confident of Funcom having the intention of delivering a polished product intended to last a "lifetime" either.
Normally Funcom would get off on a good start due to their infamous hype machine but they will launch in shark infested waters this time: Skyrim, D3, GW2, Swtor and who knows what else, are all highly anticipated AAA releases in our neck of the gaming woods. And neither of those is sub based with a cash shop.
My brand new bloggity blog.
They seem to like the AoC model of luring players in with a F2P model, and then treating them like crap no matter how much they spend on their ridiculously overpriced item shop, so that they'll eventually pay for a sub, too. It's a seriously flawed form of F2P, and I don't see it working too well in the long run, but looks like TSW may take a similar approach almost right away.
When I want a single-player story, I'll play a single-player game. When I play an MMO, I want a massively multiplayer world.
A solid 24 months. If it's not good enough to keep subs that long, I'll be highly disappointed. I suppose they could go freemium sooner, with an AoC type setup, and make more money even if it is still going strong, but I'm hoping they won't. And after two years (that's almost a century in MMO years these days), it's fine if it does go freemium, whatever keeps enough money rolling in so they can keep adding content.
I am convinced there is only one way to eliminate these grave evils, namely through the establishment of a socialist economy, accompanied by an educational system which would be oriented toward social goals.
~Albert Einstein
I really dont understand why some have such a hard on against cash shops its not like there makeing you use them and if all they sell is differnt outfits and maybe a exp buff or potions its all part of the game now they just need to get off there high horse and live with it. the shops are not going away and if that makes you not want to play so be it have a nice day and have fun in what you want to do.
The big thing about AOC was that it re-enforeced the AO bad launch. In the run-up to AOC, a lot of people were saying that surely Funcom learned something from the AO launch, but in my opinion, the AOC launch was not only bad from a technical standpoints (lots of bugs and system issues), but the outright lying done by Funcom regarding content, and the underhanded way they tricked the media and beta testers (only allowing us to play Tortage, the only part of the game that was actually finished).
There is not another game being launched that screams ´beware!! wait a month after launch to purchase until you have heard actual player feedback´.. So you have a lot of people going to try more trusted publishers like Bioware, and then you have a lot of people like myself who are interested in this game, but have NO chance of purchasing it at least until a month after launch...
I think it will go free2play as soon as they have content ready to be added to the store that a lot of people will want to play... I am guessing 6-12 months... not because subscribers will be high until that time, but simply because I don´t think they will have content ready for the store until then.