Every F2P-title where there's a cash-shop is not a fair and level playing-field.
So either we're looking for the P2P-model or F2P/B2P without cash-shop if we're interested in competitive gameplay and PvP or we're not playing at all.
With that said there's two possibilities: first, all MMOGs in the future are either mindless themeparks without competitive gameplay, or second, the statement made about the future of MMOGs revenue-models is wrong and we'll still see P2P-titles down the road.
You leave out a couple possibilities worth discussing.
1. If SWTOR is a big success as a subscription model you will find a plenty of studios saying "see a subscription model will work if you just have the right game", leading to more subscription model games whether it is a good idea or not.
2. You seem to think that to sell a copy of the game it has to be a subscription model. Why not have a game you have to buy, but has no subscription fee. Additional revenue would be through an item mall. Basically a game that functions like a F2P except for a required initial purchase of the game.
No, it wont' be the last big-budget MMO to use the subscription model, because there are already other MMOs in development - also big-budget - that are going to have a sub model.
Also note that Aihoshi concedes that it might have been mistranslated between languages (as a convenient "out" later on, should it be proven wrong)... but that it doesn't stop him from using it as the launching point for another "the future is F2P" opinion piece.
I think there's something else at work here, though... in both Smedley stating it, and Aihoshi stating it. See, I don't think them not mentioning Archeage and other P2P MMOs coming down the pike was an oversight. I'm of the opinion that it was a very deliberate omission.
Why? Because the point of Smedley's statement, and of Aihoishi's elaboration on it, isn't to discuss whether ToR will be the last or not (again, it's already known that it won't be)...
It's to plant seeds. It's to get the idea of "no more subscription-based MMOs in the future" germinating in people's minds. It's a step toward what they hope will be a future where devs/publishers can monetize their customers every which way from Sunday via micro-transactions/cash shops.
This is a tactic used a lot in politics when politicians want to push a certain agenda, making it easier to push new policy through that might otherwise meet a lot of resistance. The political pundits will go on the news networks and the talk shows and spout off their "talking points of the moment". What they're saying doesn't have to be even relevant to what the actual topic of the segment is - many times, it's not. What they're saying doesn't even have to be true... It just has to be heard. That's why talking points are short, concise and easily repeated and remembered. For many people, when they hear something enough times, they start to believe it. And that's exactly the purpose political pundits and their talking points serve.
The media does the same when they want to push an agenda of their own....
And, I believe, the same thing is happening here. Even posing it as a question - as Aihoshi has here in his column, and Smed in his statement - is enough to get the seed planted, and the ball rolling.
And you know what? It works. People can be very easily influenced, when it's done right.
There are a lot of people who will see "ToR will be the last big-budget MMO with a subscription" and not bother to read further into it, do their own homework (to discover that it's not true at all) or even question it. They'll just assume it to be fact.
So what will happen - whether they realize it or not - is that more and more people will (if the seeds are planted deeply enough and take root) sorta just "accept" it as inevitable, so when the time comes for developers/publishers to really make that push... there won't be as much resistance.
Another form of this is in Cash Shops. How many times have we seen developers sneak cash shops into MMOs with "purely cosmetic items that have no effect on gameplay". They do this because they know they'll have a much easier time lowering people's defenses and gaining their trust if they do that. Then, little by little, they add another item that has some benefits.. but nothing really significant to the gameplay... The players guard is lowered even more. Inevitably, after a time, you start to see items that blatantly affect gameplay introduced... and by that point, the players are so conditioned to it that they barely even scoff at it.
What I believe Aihoshi and Smed are doing is based on the same concept... conditioning people - albeit very slowly and indirectly - to accept F2P as "just what gaming is going to be in the future".
Again, if the point of Smed's comment, and Aihoshi's article was really to state "ToR might be the last big-budget sub-based MMO released", well... there'd have been nothign to write about. We already know there are big-budget MMOs coming out beyond/beside ToR that will have subs. In my opinion, the point of it was to plant seeds. Nothing more.
"If you just step away for a sec you will clearly see all the pot holes in the road, and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
That's the revenue I think is guaranteed. I think one of the big boys can sell 900,000 copies through hype alone in the first month.
So, is 10 or 15 million dollar budget out of the question? I don't think so(that's probably 10-30X the budget of an asian cash shop). A 50+ million MMO probably is a long ways off until we get a technology change that increases the MMO market. Word is TOR passed that up. Seems outrageous and risky, but its Star Wars and a reputable company is behind it(unlike STO).
I probably depends how SWTOR performs really. There are other games in production at the moment so whatever the outcome for SWTOR it will not affect them. However the outcome of SWTOR will determine the funding of most new MMO projects going forward.
I am sorry but any opinion coming from any member of SOE's pc gaming department holds as much weight as air to me. After a few years offering to find a game that gave me the enjoyment that SWG pre NGE gave me is virtually impossible. I am sure this is a tired statement but anybody that played that game and enjoyed it will more then likely agree with me. If the game was the same I would still be paying as long as they found ways to expand even in small amounts. So in reference to the article I do not think SW:TOR will be the last of this type of pay model on a big budget development. As long as people are willing to pay for the game being produced, how long before they f2p depends on the game itself. Wow has managed to hold on to its subscribers over a long period of time. Other companies need to find a way to do the same thing in order to have mediocre success, as I feel it will be a long time before another MMO recreates the success WoW has had.
Mark my words, it will come eventually. It's been talked about several times on multiple websites for the last decade.
Just hopefully a respectful company get its and knows what their doing.
Dune has plenty of novels and lore to go around to make it successful and a big budget mmorpg.
i love the dune picture all time favorite classic movie . but yeah i think pay to play and free to play will always have there differences some people dont mind paying hey look at everquest 1 2 then been around for along time as a pay to play based and went free to play, But they still hold on to there pay to play subs . so no not all games will copy off guild wars. they will always be different i mean its only 15 bucks a month i pay to play games all the time i dont care really if people want to spend there money on pay to play games let them. ether way its good for the companys wallet
The Secret World will have both a monthly sub, and microtransactions.
No thanks!
I want games that are P2P to ensure quality patches / updates, and possible expansions, or B2P (without pay to win)
Locking content from me, and trying to nickle n' dime me to pay even more than the box / game, AND a sub, - I find that disgusting.
I got nothing against F2P, and cash shops, as long as it's not Pay 2 Win.
I think it's an awesome way of getting more people together and do what we enjoy most, playing games together, but if the company shows no respect for it's customers, then I pack my sh*t and find another game to play.
What the OP said was : "Will SWTOR be the last big-budget MMOG?
The answer is probably yes. Why? At 80-100 million dollars when complete (not including expansion over time) it will be the most expensive MMOG ever. I don't see another IP or game (Archage, GW2, The Secret World, Wild Star etc.) coming close to the budget or size of TOR when it's all complete (more money doesn't mean better). The main reason, it's Star Wars.
We will see smaller games and smaller budgets. F2P games will never be able to match in varity, size and content what TOR has in store, so these types of MMOG's will come no where close to this budget.
So this leaves project Titan from Blizzard. In 3-5 years when Titan emerges it may come close to the Star Wars IP of TOR but I do not think it will surpass TOR's big-budget.
In this economy, only the big boys can play and take risks, but most will not take this kind of risk unless of course you are Blizzard and you want to remain king of the hill.
no because EQ next is around the corner. Unless they go with F2P for it which wouldnt be a suprise.
Smedley, head of SOE, said that SWTOR will probably be last big budget MMO. Same Smedley, who is overlord of said EQ3. This means either he doesn't consider EQ3 as a "big budget" MMO amongst the giants, or he has a different payment model planned for that as well.
Large budget mmo with a free to play subscription make no sense at all from a commercial stand point, nobody with an ounce of brain will throw in millions in a project and hope for the generosity of some gamers over their cheating tendency. And most investors looking at their project will just see that. This kind of risk is really not something any investor would even consider, but really good luck Smedley into your everQuest . Or you make low budget f2p or large budget p2p.
But really i'm not surprise some dream of such model (big budget f2p), i mean following some strange logic you would think that few thousand $ browser projects can pull hundred of thousand benefit, so what few million could do? I mean whos head wouldn't spin at such consideration?
And i know some guys will pop up D3 here to try to prove me wrong, but really D3 model have no relation with the subject here. Its neither a f2p model, neither it hope for their invest return on some RMT, and they probably have one of the strongest box sale in gaming history, so in their case its pretty much zero risk, nothing even close to a f2p big budget mmo.
But probably Smedly is thinking something like "you won't see a pur sub model anymore", that would be more real imo. Its clear they will all push up very hard to stack the payements as much as they will possibly be able to. If they can sell boxes for the price of solo games (wich most mmo don't do today between, most have very cheap boxes, i say that for the ignorants) + sub + p2w shops and few other well though commercial "inovations", they will try it, if not today tomorrow.
there will be always people who like and want quality in mmorpgs. to guarantee quality a company have to invest a certain amount of money for their budget. to get this money from a bank, a media fund, investor group or even justifying the investment for the shareholders a company have to deliver a less risky plan to cover the investment.
to refund a 20+ million dollar (high budget?) mmorpg the payment model 'f2p with microtransactions' is way to risky and it will take a very long time to balance the basic investment. the payment model 'freemium' (unlimited trialtime with the possibility to upgrade to a premium subcription account) would be mainly suitable for any heavy instanced game (turbine did it with ddo and trion will do it with end of nation), but its still risky. also this payment model fits more for older games, which want to revitalize their cash- and playerflow. if you have a strong title, a good marketing division and a proper game p2p or b2p will be the best way.
it may be that we will not see many high budget mmorpgs after 2012/2013, because the market will be very tight with p2p games out there like rift, aion, wildstar, , acheage, secret world; with freemium/f2p titles like lotro, aoc, p2, neverwinter and the big players like sw:tor, eve, gw2, wow and for sure titan dominating the genre, setting the standard and a new title have to get into competition with all of them.
there will be always players out there, who want something new to play. also there are a lot of potential customers out there, who aren't into mmorpgs yet. most of them are in touch with a mmo through a browser game (just reminding that farmarama does get more revenues than world of warcraft (financial times) and unbelivable 65% of current browser games players didn't play any client based mmorpg yet (gan report). but they will ....
Mark my words, it will come eventually. It's been talked about several times on multiple websites for the last decade.
Just hopefully a respectful company get its and knows what their doing.
Dune has plenty of novels and lore to go around to make it successful and a big budget mmorpg.
i love the dune picture all time favorite classic movie . but yeah i think pay to play and free to play will always have there differences some people dont mind paying hey look at everquest 1 2 then been around for along time as a pay to play based and went free to play, But they still hold on to there pay to play subs . so no not all games will copy off guild wars. they will always be different i mean its only 15 bucks a month i pay to play games all the time i dont care really if people want to spend there money on pay to play games let them. ether way its good for the companys wallet
Industry is turning towards smaller more imaginative products.
Dinosaurs likes of SWTOR are to risky
I tend to agree. By nature such huge undertaking are rare anyway. I guess after some time we may see some specialized medium sized MMOs. But sooner or later a new big budget MMO will come again.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
All games should be buy to play.It's ridiculous to keep paying for a game you already paid for.They should find other means of earning money and not limited free to play models.
Games should have full content to everyone and give extras to buy without making the game buy to win but buy to enhance your game experience.
That said diablo 3 has the more clever system till now with their rmah.Imagine how much they are going to earn while players making money as well.
Subscription model is dying within 2 years from now and all gamers and developers will be happy with it.Gamers will play as it is supposed to play and developers will earn money with more unique ways while grtting their satisfaction of people playing their game.
Comments
Amen. Smedly is bad for business. He will be remembered as the guy who started and finished the downfall of SOE as a player in the MMO market.
Del Cabon
A US Army ('Just Cause') Vet and MMORPG Native formerly of Trinsic, Norath and Dereth. Currently playing LOTRO.
The reason for the big bugets is to try to get a bigger slice of the MMO pie.
As long as there is money to be made.........other companies will attempt to "GET SOME".
Every F2P-title where there's a cash-shop is not a fair and level playing-field.
So either we're looking for the P2P-model or F2P/B2P without cash-shop if we're interested in competitive gameplay and PvP or we're not playing at all.
With that said there's two possibilities: first, all MMOGs in the future are either mindless themeparks without competitive gameplay, or second, the statement made about the future of MMOGs revenue-models is wrong and we'll still see P2P-titles down the road.
One day we'll find out *looks into the future* oh yes, one day...
You leave out a couple possibilities worth discussing.
1. If SWTOR is a big success as a subscription model you will find a plenty of studios saying "see a subscription model will work if you just have the right game", leading to more subscription model games whether it is a good idea or not.
2. You seem to think that to sell a copy of the game it has to be a subscription model. Why not have a game you have to buy, but has no subscription fee. Additional revenue would be through an item mall. Basically a game that functions like a F2P except for a required initial purchase of the game.
No, it wont' be the last big-budget MMO to use the subscription model, because there are already other MMOs in development - also big-budget - that are going to have a sub model.
Also note that Aihoshi concedes that it might have been mistranslated between languages (as a convenient "out" later on, should it be proven wrong)... but that it doesn't stop him from using it as the launching point for another "the future is F2P" opinion piece.
I think there's something else at work here, though... in both Smedley stating it, and Aihoshi stating it. See, I don't think them not mentioning Archeage and other P2P MMOs coming down the pike was an oversight. I'm of the opinion that it was a very deliberate omission.
Why? Because the point of Smedley's statement, and of Aihoishi's elaboration on it, isn't to discuss whether ToR will be the last or not (again, it's already known that it won't be)...
It's to plant seeds. It's to get the idea of "no more subscription-based MMOs in the future" germinating in people's minds. It's a step toward what they hope will be a future where devs/publishers can monetize their customers every which way from Sunday via micro-transactions/cash shops.
This is a tactic used a lot in politics when politicians want to push a certain agenda, making it easier to push new policy through that might otherwise meet a lot of resistance. The political pundits will go on the news networks and the talk shows and spout off their "talking points of the moment". What they're saying doesn't have to be even relevant to what the actual topic of the segment is - many times, it's not. What they're saying doesn't even have to be true... It just has to be heard. That's why talking points are short, concise and easily repeated and remembered. For many people, when they hear something enough times, they start to believe it. And that's exactly the purpose political pundits and their talking points serve.
The media does the same when they want to push an agenda of their own....
And, I believe, the same thing is happening here. Even posing it as a question - as Aihoshi has here in his column, and Smed in his statement - is enough to get the seed planted, and the ball rolling.
And you know what? It works. People can be very easily influenced, when it's done right.
There are a lot of people who will see "ToR will be the last big-budget MMO with a subscription" and not bother to read further into it, do their own homework (to discover that it's not true at all) or even question it. They'll just assume it to be fact.
So what will happen - whether they realize it or not - is that more and more people will (if the seeds are planted deeply enough and take root) sorta just "accept" it as inevitable, so when the time comes for developers/publishers to really make that push... there won't be as much resistance.
Another form of this is in Cash Shops. How many times have we seen developers sneak cash shops into MMOs with "purely cosmetic items that have no effect on gameplay". They do this because they know they'll have a much easier time lowering people's defenses and gaining their trust if they do that. Then, little by little, they add another item that has some benefits.. but nothing really significant to the gameplay... The players guard is lowered even more. Inevitably, after a time, you start to see items that blatantly affect gameplay introduced... and by that point, the players are so conditioned to it that they barely even scoff at it.
What I believe Aihoshi and Smed are doing is based on the same concept... conditioning people - albeit very slowly and indirectly - to accept F2P as "just what gaming is going to be in the future".
Again, if the point of Smed's comment, and Aihoshi's article was really to state "ToR might be the last big-budget sub-based MMO released", well... there'd have been nothign to write about. We already know there are big-budget MMOs coming out beyond/beside ToR that will have subs. In my opinion, the point of it was to plant seeds. Nothing more.
and the cash shop selling asphalt..." - Mimzel on F2P/Cash Shops
Why are people still listening to Smedley?
The guy is a cancer on the MMO community. The sooner he gets forced to retire, the better, in my opinion.
900,000 X 50 = 45,000,000
That's the revenue I think is guaranteed. I think one of the big boys can sell 900,000 copies through hype alone in the first month.
So, is 10 or 15 million dollar budget out of the question? I don't think so(that's probably 10-30X the budget of an asian cash shop). A 50+ million MMO probably is a long ways off until we get a technology change that increases the MMO market. Word is TOR passed that up. Seems outrageous and risky, but its Star Wars and a reputable company is behind it(unlike STO).
I probably depends how SWTOR performs really. There are other games in production at the moment so whatever the outcome for SWTOR it will not affect them. However the outcome of SWTOR will determine the funding of most new MMO projects going forward.
I am sorry but any opinion coming from any member of SOE's pc gaming department holds as much weight as air to me. After a few years offering to find a game that gave me the enjoyment that SWG pre NGE gave me is virtually impossible. I am sure this is a tired statement but anybody that played that game and enjoyed it will more then likely agree with me. If the game was the same I would still be paying as long as they found ways to expand even in small amounts. So in reference to the article I do not think SW:TOR will be the last of this type of pay model on a big budget development. As long as people are willing to pay for the game being produced, how long before they f2p depends on the game itself. Wow has managed to hold on to its subscribers over a long period of time. Other companies need to find a way to do the same thing in order to have mediocre success, as I feel it will be a long time before another MMO recreates the success WoW has had.
Mark my words, it will come eventually. It's been talked about several times on multiple websites for the last decade.
Just hopefully a respectful company get its and knows what their doing.
Dune has plenty of novels and lore to go around to make it successful and a big budget mmorpg.
i love the dune picture all time favorite classic movie
. but yeah i think pay to play and free to play will always have there differences some people dont mind paying hey look at everquest 1 2 then been around for along time as a pay to play based and went free to play, But they still hold on to there pay to play subs . so no not all games will copy off guild wars. they will always be different i mean its only 15 bucks a month i pay to play games all the time i dont care really if people want to spend there money on pay to play games let them. ether way its good for the companys wallet 
.....
I'll tell you what EA could bring out and it would draw a lot of subscriptions!
Ultima Online 2....
Blizzard makes more then 1 billion a month in subs alone, why do people keep talking about it heading towards F2P ?
Hmm go to F2P model or 1 billion a month ? damn hard choice there
Some people mentioned TSW...
The Secret World will have both a monthly sub, and microtransactions.
No thanks!
I want games that are P2P to ensure quality patches / updates, and possible expansions, or B2P (without pay to win)
Locking content from me, and trying to nickle n' dime me to pay even more than the box / game, AND a sub, - I find that disgusting.
I got nothing against F2P, and cash shops, as long as it's not Pay 2 Win.
I think it's an awesome way of getting more people together and do what we enjoy most, playing games together, but if the company shows no respect for it's customers, then I pack my sh*t and find another game to play.
the only thing smedly knows how to do is break things i would run SOE better than him he is a clown. Show me something they have done well since EQ
What the OP said was : "Will SWTOR be the last big-budget MMOG?
The answer is probably yes. Why? At 80-100 million dollars when complete (not including expansion over time) it will be the most expensive MMOG ever. I don't see another IP or game (Archage, GW2, The Secret World, Wild Star etc.) coming close to the budget or size of TOR when it's all complete (more money doesn't mean better). The main reason, it's Star Wars.
We will see smaller games and smaller budgets. F2P games will never be able to match in varity, size and content what TOR has in store, so these types of MMOG's will come no where close to this budget.
So this leaves project Titan from Blizzard. In 3-5 years when Titan emerges it may come close to the Star Wars IP of TOR but I do not think it will surpass TOR's big-budget.
In this economy, only the big boys can play and take risks, but most will not take this kind of risk unless of course you are Blizzard and you want to remain king of the hill.
Smedley, head of SOE, said that SWTOR will probably be last big budget MMO. Same Smedley, who is overlord of said EQ3. This means either he doesn't consider EQ3 as a "big budget" MMO amongst the giants, or he has a different payment model planned for that as well.
Large budget mmo with a free to play subscription make no sense at all from a commercial stand point, nobody with an ounce of brain will throw in millions in a project and hope for the generosity of some gamers over their cheating tendency. And most investors looking at their project will just see that. This kind of risk is really not something any investor would even consider, but really good luck Smedley into your everQuest
. Or you make low budget f2p or large budget p2p.
But really i'm not surprise some dream of such model (big budget f2p), i mean following some strange logic you would think that few thousand $ browser projects can pull hundred of thousand benefit, so what few million could do? I mean whos head wouldn't spin at such consideration?
And i know some guys will pop up D3 here to try to prove me wrong, but really D3 model have no relation with the subject here. Its neither a f2p model, neither it hope for their invest return on some RMT, and they probably have one of the strongest box sale in gaming history, so in their case its pretty much zero risk, nothing even close to a f2p big budget mmo.
But probably Smedly is thinking something like "you won't see a pur sub model anymore", that would be more real imo. Its clear they will all push up very hard to stack the payements as much as they will possibly be able to. If they can sell boxes for the price of solo games (wich most mmo don't do today between, most have very cheap boxes, i say that for the ignorants) + sub + p2w shops and few other well though commercial "inovations", they will try it, if not today tomorrow.
there will be always people who like and want quality in mmorpgs. to guarantee quality a company have to invest a certain amount of money for their budget. to get this money from a bank, a media fund, investor group or even justifying the investment for the shareholders a company have to deliver a less risky plan to cover the investment.
to refund a 20+ million dollar (high budget?) mmorpg the payment model 'f2p with microtransactions' is way to risky and it will take a very long time to balance the basic investment. the payment model 'freemium' (unlimited trialtime with the possibility to upgrade to a premium subcription account) would be mainly suitable for any heavy instanced game (turbine did it with ddo and trion will do it with end of nation), but its still risky. also this payment model fits more for older games, which want to revitalize their cash- and playerflow. if you have a strong title, a good marketing division and a proper game p2p or b2p will be the best way.
it may be that we will not see many high budget mmorpgs after 2012/2013, because the market will be very tight with p2p games out there like rift, aion, wildstar, , acheage, secret world; with freemium/f2p titles like lotro, aoc, p2, neverwinter and the big players like sw:tor, eve, gw2, wow and for sure titan dominating the genre, setting the standard and a new title have to get into competition with all of them.
there will be always players out there, who want something new to play. also there are a lot of potential customers out there, who aren't into mmorpgs yet. most of them are in touch with a mmo through a browser game (just reminding that farmarama does get more revenues than world of warcraft (financial times) and unbelivable 65% of current browser games players didn't play any client based mmorpg yet (gan report). but they will ....
Nope, it won't be the last. Why? Because my MMORPG will one day feature a subscription only model.
Classic "movie???????" -_-
I tend to agree. By nature such huge undertaking are rare anyway. I guess after some time we may see some specialized medium sized MMOs. But sooner or later a new big budget MMO will come again.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
OP....are there still Capitalists in the world ?
All games should be buy to play.It's ridiculous to keep paying for a game you already paid for.They should find other means of earning money and not limited free to play models.
Games should have full content to everyone and give extras to buy without making the game buy to win but buy to enhance your game experience.
That said diablo 3 has the more clever system till now with their rmah.Imagine how much they are going to earn while players making money as well.
Subscription model is dying within 2 years from now and all gamers and developers will be happy with it.Gamers will play as it is supposed to play and developers will earn money with more unique ways while grtting their satisfaction of people playing their game.