I am having some trouble understanding how SWTOR is going to maintain enough subs after the intial couple months. As I see it, here are the demographic groups SWTOR is targetting at:
1. RPG players with no interest in MMORPG
Maybe this game will change their minds?
2. Starwar fans with no interest in MMORPG
Again, maybe this will change their minds....
3. MMORPG players who like theme park MMORPG but do not like RPG
Yes there is a story here, there usually is some sort of story in all of the MMO's out there, but if you don't like rpg, you can do like most do in MMO's....ignore it, and grind on.
4. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG and is not tired of WoW yet
The only WoW players I know of that are not tired of the game are Wrath babies and BC brats. Not to say they are not out there, but the majority of "Vanilla" players are looking to dive into something new.
5. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG but is tired of WoW
And this is bad why?
Now the problem is that besides group 5, there is no reason for the other groups to stay around after the first couple months. Group 1 and group 2 will move on once they finish the stories, group 3 will not even enjoy the game (we already heard lots of complaints from power levelers from beta test), group 4 would probabaly prefer to still stay in WoW as they already have established characters/communities there and no reason for them to start over grinding BG/raids again.
People have moved on from other MMO's that they have spent time and money in for years (if yer still playing UO and haven't touched another MMO, kudos, and holy crap )
So now the question is how big a group is group 5? We know mass effect 2 has 2 million box sales, so that puts a upper bound on the combined numbers of group 1, 4 and 5. We can probabely also use RIFT as a reference point, which supposely appeal to people who are tired of WoW and want a fresh start but still enjoy theme park MMO. My guess is right now RIFT has about 300k to 500k subscribers, which many of them may belong to group 3. We can also use the box sale of RIFT as a rough estimate, which is about 1 million, and assume 40% of the sales are due to group 3 and group 4 and the rest is due to group 5, then that still only gives us about 600k potential long term subscribers to SWTOR.
Even if the game only retained 600k as you say, that is still damn good. Personally, I see it holding on to more than that, but that's my opinion. People have this idea that if an MMO doesn't have 11 mil subs, it's a failure. The only failure is that line of thinking. WoW is not the standard, it is the exception.
Is there something I am missing that you guys can point out?
Oh no ? Guess you'll be disappointed at release then.
I can assure you I will NOT be disappointed. I have very high hopes for this game and I can tell you I will not be displeased. I'm looking forward to the stories as well as the PvP.
You and then there is the masses...
Apparently the masses are liking what they are seeing since it has over a half a million preorders.
I am having some trouble understanding how SWTOR is going to maintain enough subs after the intial couple months. As I see it, here are the demographic groups SWTOR is targetting at:
1. RPG players with no interest in MMORPG
2. Starwar fans with no interest in MMORPG
3. MMORPG players who like theme park MMORPG but do not like RPG
4. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG and is not tired of WoW yet
5. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG but is tired of WoW
Now the problem is that besides group 5, there is no reason for the other groups to stay around after the first couple months. Group 1 and group 2 will move on once they finish the stories, group 3 will not even enjoy the game (we already heard lots of complaints from power levelers from beta test), group 4 would probabaly prefer to still stay in WoW as they already have established characters/communities there and no reason for them to start over grinding BG/raids again.
So now the question is how big a group is group 5? We know mass effect 2 has 2 million box sales, so that puts a upper bound on the combined numbers of group 1, 4 and 5. We can probabely also use RIFT as a reference point, which supposely appeal to people who are tired of WoW and want a fresh start but still enjoy theme park MMO. My guess is right now RIFT has about 300k to 500k subscribers, which many of them may belong to group 3. We can also use the box sale of RIFT as a rough estimate, which is about 1 million, and assume 40% of the sales are due to group 3 and group 4 and the rest is due to group 5, then that still only gives us about 600k potential long term subscribers to SWTOR.
Is there something I am missing that you guys can point out?
Your five demographic groups is wrong.
It is wrong because interest or non interest in MMORPGs won't be a factor. If it was then the millions of WoW players who had never played an MMO before wouldn't have stayed with that game for so long. Considering the size of the MMO market before and after WoW was released we can easily assume that WoW attracted a huge number of people who would fall into you "not interested in MMORPGs" category.
Here are the groups I think the game is aimed at
1. Star Wars fans.
2. Bioware fans.
3. KOTOR fans.
4. RPG fans.
5. Themepark MMORPG fans.
6. Gamers looking for a good game to play (I think TOR will attract single player gamers due to the things normally only found in single player games now being present in MMOs, i.e. fully voice acted cinematic quests.)
7. Burnt out WoW players (this is a sure bet considering the drop off in subscriptions WoW has seen over the past year.)
8. Those who socialize with the above seven groups and are willing to try out a game they can play with the people in those groups (I get this one from the scads of WoW players out there who only started playing so they could play with a sibling, spouse, parent, friend, roommate, etc. etc.)
We don't need to worry about the size of "group 5" since your artificially created groups don't mean anythinmg anyway, and your assumption that the other 4 groups won't stay with the game is wrong anyway.
So how will TOR entice all these people to stay with the game?
A) PvP. PvPers won't suddenly see content dry up at level cap, they'll be able to fight other players for years to come,.
Socialization. I knew so many people who used WoW as an elaborate chat GUI to stay in touch with friends/guildmates who played the game. At $15 per month it really isn't too expensive to do so.
C) Exoploration/achievment. There will be a subset of people who will try to get every holocron in the game. If they introduce some sort of badge (like CoH) or achievement (like WoW) system then there will be people striving to get all of those too (like me, my badger in CoH had nearly 600 badges when I quit.)
D) The gear grind. Believe it or not, this actually attracts a certain group of players. I had a friend who did her WoW "dailies" every single day. They took her about 2 hours to do every day and I watched her once. I was bored to tears and couldn't understand why she wasn't either (she did stop periodically to chat with guildmates, so add a little of column A in there too.)
E) Operations (raids.) This is a mix of columns A, B and D. There will be guilds that will grind these, there will be people who think these are fun (I personally disagree.)
F) The promise of future content and new features in future updates. If Bioware is smart they'll have new features added to the game at regular intervals post-launch up until they fulfill the wishlist of stuff they couldn't finish pre-launch (i.e. guild capital ships, expanded space game, the quests they couldn't fit into the game, more planets, etc.) People will stay subscribed for these, or unsubscribe when they get bored and resubscribe when a new feature comes out.
G) Jawas.
And a possible, if done right, H) The Legacy System. If this now mysterious system is designed properly it will entice players to roll new characters and play through the game again (i.e. I would love to see the options you previously chose as dialogue options in quests while playing through the game highlighted for quests you've previously played so that you can choose different outcomes and see how the story diverges.)
So that is why i think the OP is wrong and why I think people will play TOR after the initial few months.
I am having some trouble understanding how SWTOR is going to maintain enough subs after the intial couple months. As I see it, here are the demographic groups SWTOR is targetting at:
1. RPG players with no interest in MMORPG
2. Starwar fans with no interest in MMORPG
3. MMORPG players who like theme park MMORPG but do not like RPG
4. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG and is not tired of WoW yet
5. MMORPG players who enjoy theme park MMORPG and RPG but is tired of WoW
Now the problem is that besides group 5, there is no reason for the other groups to stay around after the first couple months. Group 1 and group 2 will move on once they finish the stories, group 3 will not even enjoy the game (we already heard lots of complaints from power levelers from beta test), group 4 would probabaly prefer to still stay in WoW as they already have established characters/communities there and no reason for them to start over grinding BG/raids again.
So now the question is how big a group is group 5? We know mass effect 2 has 2 million box sales, so that puts a upper bound on the combined numbers of group 1, 4 and 5. We can probabely also use RIFT as a reference point, which supposely appeal to people who are tired of WoW and want a fresh start but still enjoy theme park MMO. My guess is right now RIFT has about 300k to 500k subscribers, which many of them may belong to group 3. We can also use the box sale of RIFT as a rough estimate, which is about 1 million, and assume 40% of the sales are due to group 3 and group 4 and the rest is due to group 5, then that still only gives us about 600k potential long term subscribers to SWTOR.
Is there something I am missing that you guys can point out?
They will keep the subs how I have no idea. I for one wont be playing because everything I hear about this game it should be named World of Star Warscraft.
SWTOR will maintain subs until something else comes along.. because atm anything is better than nothing.
How many times have we heard this before? and do i get a cookie for guessing you are referring to GW2? SW games attract very different kind of players who have very little inteerst in swords and sorcery MMOS like GW2. Hell i am sick of low / high fantasy games and want a good sci fi MMO.
OP you are not missing anything. The biggest question with SWTOR is how the game will be beyond the story, as a pure MMO, and that nobody knows. Answer 3 months after release.
And where did this steaming pile of clairvoyance drop from today?
SWTOR will maintain subs until something else comes along.. because atm anything is better than nothing.
So true and once they discover how generic the game is they will be salvating for the next best thing.
Nice try, but I really don't think Bioware knows how to do generic.
Oh no ? Guess you'll be disappointed at release then.
Speak for yourself, the game doesn't look at all generic to me.
But then again, I have been watching the videos, reading the articles and interviews, and I know what this game will entail. Have you been doing the same?
Why do people seem to think that a game must either be the bestest thing out there EVAR or crap and going to fail inside of 2 weeks. You know, there is a lot of room in between those two extremes. TOR is going to do fine.
Why do I care about convincing you of anything? I don't know you, I don't care about you, or your opinion... No offense, I just don't get threads like this.
This should of ended this thread, but sadly it never does. Trolls have swtor to fuel thier need for attention on this website, any swtor bashing thread will get to 15 pages minimum.
Why are people so upset that Swtor is going to be a success?
I understand that some might be scared that Swtor will effect there choice MMO, maybe push your MMO of choice to become free to pay or even shut down but still, why, who cares, if you don't like Swtor just don't play it, ride your choice MMO and hope it lasts,besides there will allways be GW2 that's not going anywhere because its's a buy and play MMO, even though WoW will lose about 3 million subs,WoW will still be number 1 for at least a few more years, Rift might take a hit and everything else but GW2 will go bankrupt or F2P but that dosn't mean the end of all MMO's.
SWTOR will maintain subs until something else comes along.. because atm anything is better than nothing.
So true and once they discover how generic the game is they will be salvating for the next best thing.
Nice try, but I really don't think Bioware knows how to do generic.
Oh no ? Guess you'll be disappointed at release then.
Speak for yourself, the game doesn't look at all generic to me.
But then again, I have been watching the videos, reading the articles and interviews, and I know what this game will entail. Have you been doing the same?
Apparently he is in BETA, from what he says. Most Beta impressions I have read have been faiirly positive.
SWTOR will maintain subs until something else comes along.. because atm anything is better than nothing.
So true and once they discover how generic the game is they will be salvating for the next best thing.
Nice try, but I really don't think Bioware knows how to do generic.
Oh no ? Guess you'll be disappointed at release then.
Speak for yourself, the game doesn't look at all generic to me.
But then again, I have been watching the videos, reading the articles and interviews, and I know what this game will entail. Have you been doing the same?
Apparently he is in BETA, from what he says. Most Beta impressions I have read have been faiirly positive.
It's a very, very safe MMO design. Nothing about it breaks the mold, or dares to venture outside the box. If you love WOW but wish it was Star Wars flavored and talked more at you*, SWTOR is your game.
* Fully-voiced isn't new, Wizards 101 is fully voiced, most MMOs have some kind of voiced parts. Bioware just wanted to blow most of it's budget on voice actors.
they will keep subs the same way wow does. by putting you on a gear treadmill and keeping that carrot in front of your face going for the next shiny. it has worked with every other animal in the world and humans are no different. we will stay on the treadmill trying to reach the next carrot only to find out when it is reached they put out a bigger shinier carrot for us to reach and try to gobble up. wow has done if for 6 years and swtor will do it for the next 6 or so years until people get tired of doing the same thing over and over in a game and want something new, just like what is going on with wow right now.
It's a very, very safe MMO design. Nothing about it breaks the mold, or dares to venture outside the box. If you love WOW but wish it was Star Wars flavored and talked more at you*, SWTOR is your game.
* Fully-voiced isn't new, Wizards 101 is fully voiced, most MMOs have some kind of voiced parts. Bioware just wanted to blow most of it's budget on voice actors.
I wonder if that much ignorance, with that much certainty, actually has a smell to it?
Like you can just "sense" it about a person?
Can we please stop spreading the same misinformation and lies around all of the threads on this web site please?
The fact that there is supposedly 200+ hours of game play per class is going to be a huge deciding factor in its longevity. You figure at 8 class stories, if someone plays 4 hours a day, every day all week (this is just an estimate of course) it would roughly take you 2 months just to get 1 character to max level. For someone who is looking at play all 8 classes (like myself) you are looking at 16 months worth of play time just getting through the class story lines.
This would be also if someone decides to have 0 of the same class for different advanced class options.
This is assuming they add 0 content to the game after launch, and I'm fairly sure that in 16 months plenty will be added. Bioware isnt some small company who cannot keep up with fresh content updates, and I figure they will happen pretty often.
However - their tastes and mine are not the same, and I prefer to make up my own mind. So far, from what I have seen, it looks fun and interesting, so I'm going to give it a go. And if its good, I'll stick around.
I think that about sums it up.
"When people don't know much about something, they tend to fill in the blanks the way they want them to be filled in. They are almost always disappointed." - Will Wright
Oh no ? Guess you'll be disappointed at release then.
I can assure you I will NOT be disappointed. I have very high hopes for this game and I can tell you I will not be displeased. I'm looking forward to the stories as well as the PvP.
You and then there is the masses...
Yup! I can't speak for them...box sales and continued subs will though
I cannot speak for others but if SW:TOR can keep me interested I'm willing to sub for years. All I want is huge landmasses to explore, some world bosses, raids, and replayability. So far I understand that SW:TOR is completely static, an MMO from 2006 or 2007. If 300 million budget is true then it seems to be wasted money but then again I cannot tell before I play the game.
You started out good, then you failed. It's has all that, and the budget is around 150 mil.
Oh no ? Guess you'll be disappointed at release then.
I can assure you I will NOT be disappointed. I have very high hopes for this game and I can tell you I will not be displeased. I'm looking forward to the stories as well as the PvP.
You and then there is the masses...
You speak for masses? sorry but i hardly believe what GW2 fans say regarding SWTOR since they have their own agenda for spreading negativity.
Comments
Star Wars fans... that's all you need.
It will maintain subs through fans of sw.
Warhammer has nothing special for a monthly fee although war fans support it so i imagine the same will happen with swtor.
As for me i may try the game but i find my self playing diablo 3 than swtor.Simply because diablo is hell of fun
Apparently the masses are liking what they are seeing since it has over a half a million preorders.
In Bioware we trust!
Your five demographic groups is wrong.
It is wrong because interest or non interest in MMORPGs won't be a factor. If it was then the millions of WoW players who had never played an MMO before wouldn't have stayed with that game for so long. Considering the size of the MMO market before and after WoW was released we can easily assume that WoW attracted a huge number of people who would fall into you "not interested in MMORPGs" category.
Here are the groups I think the game is aimed at
1. Star Wars fans.
2. Bioware fans.
3. KOTOR fans.
4. RPG fans.
5. Themepark MMORPG fans.
6. Gamers looking for a good game to play (I think TOR will attract single player gamers due to the things normally only found in single player games now being present in MMOs, i.e. fully voice acted cinematic quests.)
7. Burnt out WoW players (this is a sure bet considering the drop off in subscriptions WoW has seen over the past year.)
8. Those who socialize with the above seven groups and are willing to try out a game they can play with the people in those groups (I get this one from the scads of WoW players out there who only started playing so they could play with a sibling, spouse, parent, friend, roommate, etc. etc.)
We don't need to worry about the size of "group 5" since your artificially created groups don't mean anythinmg anyway, and your assumption that the other 4 groups won't stay with the game is wrong anyway.
So how will TOR entice all these people to stay with the game?
A) PvP. PvPers won't suddenly see content dry up at level cap, they'll be able to fight other players for years to come,.
C) Exoploration/achievment. There will be a subset of people who will try to get every holocron in the game. If they introduce some sort of badge (like CoH) or achievement (like WoW) system then there will be people striving to get all of those too (like me, my badger in CoH had nearly 600 badges when I quit.)
D) The gear grind. Believe it or not, this actually attracts a certain group of players. I had a friend who did her WoW "dailies" every single day. They took her about 2 hours to do every day and I watched her once. I was bored to tears and couldn't understand why she wasn't either (she did stop periodically to chat with guildmates, so add a little of column A in there too.)
E) Operations (raids.) This is a mix of columns A, B and D. There will be guilds that will grind these, there will be people who think these are fun (I personally disagree.)
F) The promise of future content and new features in future updates. If Bioware is smart they'll have new features added to the game at regular intervals post-launch up until they fulfill the wishlist of stuff they couldn't finish pre-launch (i.e. guild capital ships, expanded space game, the quests they couldn't fit into the game, more planets, etc.) People will stay subscribed for these, or unsubscribe when they get bored and resubscribe when a new feature comes out.
G) Jawas.
And a possible, if done right, H) The Legacy System. If this now mysterious system is designed properly it will entice players to roll new characters and play through the game again (i.e. I would love to see the options you previously chose as dialogue options in quests while playing through the game highlighted for quests you've previously played so that you can choose different outcomes and see how the story diverges.)
So that is why i think the OP is wrong and why I think people will play TOR after the initial few months.
Bi-weekly fully voiced content updates!**
(** not gonna happen)
They will keep the subs how I have no idea. I for one wont be playing because everything I hear about this game it should be named World of Star Warscraft.
How many times have we heard this before? and do i get a cookie for guessing you are referring to GW2? SW games attract very different kind of players who have very little inteerst in swords and sorcery MMOS like GW2. Hell i am sick of low / high fantasy games and want a good sci fi MMO.
And where did this steaming pile of clairvoyance drop from today?
Speak for yourself, the game doesn't look at all generic to me.
But then again, I have been watching the videos, reading the articles and interviews, and I know what this game will entail. Have you been doing the same?
Why do people seem to think that a game must either be the bestest thing out there EVAR or crap and going to fail inside of 2 weeks. You know, there is a lot of room in between those two extremes. TOR is going to do fine.
All die, so die well.
This should of ended this thread, but sadly it never does. Trolls have swtor to fuel thier need for attention on this website, any swtor bashing thread will get to 15 pages minimum.
another one of those prophets
Apparently he is in BETA, from what he says. Most Beta impressions I have read have been faiirly positive.
In Bioware we trust!
I haven't met a tester who doesn't love the game.
My jealousy is palpable.
It's a very, very safe MMO design. Nothing about it breaks the mold, or dares to venture outside the box. If you love WOW but wish it was Star Wars flavored and talked more at you*, SWTOR is your game.
* Fully-voiced isn't new, Wizards 101 is fully voiced, most MMOs have some kind of voiced parts. Bioware just wanted to blow most of it's budget on voice actors.
they will keep subs the same way wow does. by putting you on a gear treadmill and keeping that carrot in front of your face going for the next shiny. it has worked with every other animal in the world and humans are no different. we will stay on the treadmill trying to reach the next carrot only to find out when it is reached they put out a bigger shinier carrot for us to reach and try to gobble up. wow has done if for 6 years and swtor will do it for the next 6 or so years until people get tired of doing the same thing over and over in a game and want something new, just like what is going on with wow right now.
I wonder if that much ignorance, with that much certainty, actually has a smell to it?
Like you can just "sense" it about a person?
Can we please stop spreading the same misinformation and lies around all of the threads on this web site please?
The fact that there is supposedly 200+ hours of game play per class is going to be a huge deciding factor in its longevity. You figure at 8 class stories, if someone plays 4 hours a day, every day all week (this is just an estimate of course) it would roughly take you 2 months just to get 1 character to max level. For someone who is looking at play all 8 classes (like myself) you are looking at 16 months worth of play time just getting through the class story lines.
This would be also if someone decides to have 0 of the same class for different advanced class options.
This is assuming they add 0 content to the game after launch, and I'm fairly sure that in 16 months plenty will be added. Bioware isnt some small company who cannot keep up with fresh content updates, and I figure they will happen pretty often.
My Guild Wars 2 Vids
I have. Actually I've met a few.
However - their tastes and mine are not the same, and I prefer to make up my own mind. So far, from what I have seen, it looks fun and interesting, so I'm going to give it a go. And if its good, I'll stick around.
I think that about sums it up.
"When people don't know much about something, they tend to fill in the blanks the way they want them to be filled in. They are almost always disappointed." - Will Wright
Yup! I can't speak for them...box sales and continued subs will though
You started out good, then you failed. It's has all that, and the budget is around 150 mil.
In Bioware we trust!
You speak for masses? sorry but i hardly believe what GW2 fans say regarding SWTOR since they have their own agenda for spreading negativity.
All of those things are in TOR.
Yes, including open world boss mobs.