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General: New Report Reveals Declining MMO Subscription Revenue
SBFord
Former Associate EditorMember LegendaryPosts: 33,129
A new report from industry analyst iHS: ScreenDigest shows that revenue generated from both MMO and non-MMO subscriptions has declined for fiscal 2010. This marks the first decline since 2002.
While the report shows subscription losses at approximately 5% overall in 2010 as compared to 2009, revenue generated through microtransaction sales is increasing. iHS indicates that subscription models for revenue generation are "at a turning point".
In general, MMO revenues are expected to increase over the next several years from $2.7 billion USD to $3.1 billion USD in 2015. iHS concludes that microtransactions will be the driving force behind the increase from now through 2015.
iHS has also determined that Activision-Blizzard owns a 31% stake in the market with GameForge and BigPoint in second and third places respectively.
Read the report's highlights at iHS: ScreenDigest.
Comments
Looks like you have to buy the report. Bleh.
I wonder if the increase in revenue from micro transactions made up for the loss in subscription sales. Maybe it more than made up for it. If you can believe the people behind AoC and LotRO, the answer would be, "Yes".
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
I think it did, LizardBones. Overall MMO revenue is up due to microtransactions. The sub-section for subscription revenue is down.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
That is very interesting. Kind of showing us shades of the future. If it works out to less money spent per player, but more players, I'm all for it. I can barely afford my gaming hobby now. :-)
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
You could also look on it as there hasn't been a really decent sub model game for bloody ages and those that will only play sub games are become disillussioned and, as opposed to those that play the p2w model, expect a certain quality of game they're not interested in a the new hot game to play for a week or month, they're looking for a world.
Also those companies you have in 2nd and 3rd are unheard of to me. Is this another one of those reports based on unknown numbers and estimated, like last-time where they were valueing companies based on share value or such and valued zynga @ $7billion or some such rubbish?
ps omg how bad is the english in this post, even I don't know what I was saying.
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The person who is certain, and who claims divine warrant for his certainty, belongs now to the infancy of our species.
Its only going to get more expensive for us.
Now you can say ''Hey that game is P2W Im not playing that!'' because we have options, in a few years we dont have those options and its either pay 100$ a month to be viable or dont play MMO's.
I can't afford a regular subscription at the moment but when I (normally a few times a year) can if I enjoy the game I throw money their way in the way of content purchases.
I suspect, Mr. Wolf, we'd have to spend a LOT of money to buy the report. But as it's generated by a company that sells this sort of information to developers and publishers, it's probably pretty spot on.
Gameforge
BigPoint
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
One can't discount the effects of the world's economic struggles. In today's market, even low growth is doing well.
Compared to the banking sector, we're doing great.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gameforge
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bigpoint_Games
Both companies are based in Germany. How much European financial news do you get?
It does point out a shortcoming of mmorpg.com, however. With a few recent exceptions, this site largely ignores browser-based games--which are (apparently) a quite lucrative and growing market of the genre. Mentioning some of the big players in those markets only makes us go "Huh? Who dat?"
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
it gets to that, just quit.. Kinda like in New York where smoking costs so much not as many people are doing it.
The difference in a free market (not like the smoking example above as thats government involvement).. if the cost drives people away, and the companies start losing money. they will have to revert back to keep people playing.
I think we are definitely going to see the pricing models change in the next few years. If a few successful games come out that are F2P, the others will be forced to follow suit to compete. We already see this in MOBAs with LoL dominating, it's forced their competitors to adopt a similar model to compete. Maybe if GW2 does well, it could really swing things in a new direction in terms of pricing.
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That was my thought, talk about reading too much into statistics. People have less money to spend on MMO subs and would rather play F2P and only occasionally spend money. I know at least 3 people who stopped subbing to games cause of the economy. That all adds up.
"They essentially want to say 'Correlation proves Causation' when it's just not true." - Sovrath
This is the one and only driver behind this revenue shift, increased revenue for less investment. It adds nothing to actual game, in fact quite the opposite- it destroys them in profound ways not immediately obviousto the casual player. Personally I predict in around 5 years all the real gamers out there will regret not fighting this move when they could.
It's a shame no gaming site out here in internet land is willing to have an honest critical discussion about it rather then shill it constantly for whatever reason they do.
Fingers cossed for a massive backlash sometime soon.
Didn't a good portion of previously sub only games switch to FTP models? thereby decreasing how many games even HAVE a subscription based income? This is a misleading article. If it said that the companies themselves were losing money than it would make sense to even talk about this, but since they aren't and seem to be making more money when adopting microtransactions, this "report" comes about as trying to push the microtransaction model even more.
Thanks both for the links I did ofc look them up when reading the thread, my point was, are these well known companies for mmo's? I guess I must have been living in a hole.
My problem with this still stands, this is an industry report, for industy entities. It stands to reason there is a vested interest in the industry moving to a 'f'2p model as it's easier to make money from a transient demographic with this format. But long term what is the future for it, for me it's way too soon to tell especially when they're making projections off the back off data from an established model to a fairly new one which wasn't really mainstream until recently. I won't go into reasons as we're all intelligent enough to reason why the trend will show this way.
I am by nature very suspicious of this type of report and as such will be bias.
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The person who is certain, and who claims divine warrant for his certainty, belongs now to the infancy of our species.
I personally think its mainly due to the fact that every single MMO that comes out is nothing more than a cookie-cutter of another, there really hasnt been anything industry breaking or *new* per say, unlike the original big dogs in the likes of EQ, UO and AC there after its been studios trying to mimic rather than introduce
At least one thing is certain, change will come if not forced by the vast majority .. i.e. Money talks and all else changes
Honestly, 2010 was a terrible year for MMO's. CO had launched a bit before that and flopped. STO was a huge flop. Lots of indy MMO's that were lacking. Only game I can think of that did well was Rift.
1) There are hundreds, if not thousands, of cash shop/microtransaction games. Compared to the relative handful of AAA titled that charge subscriptions.
2) Not a single developer in the past 4-5 years has released a subscription model game that has playable content for more than a few months. This leads to subscribers canceling once they have "beaten" the game.
Problem 1 in itself is enough to skew the results. But coupled with problem 2 it begs the question, "Are we really surprised by this?"
Give me a game worth paying for and I'll pay...
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c('')('')
It seems we all have been notice that something is wrong in mmo...'s world.
Playing a game that's not enjoyable, and become kind of a profession is one of the things that is taking gamers away. But when we spend all our few minutes of true great job satisfaction ^^ in a game, no matter p2p or f2p, we are enjoying it we'll play it.
And we allready saw that f2p isn't the same of bad quality game, but normaly equal to spend more money . Those based browser games, have definitly changed something, the easy way to pay for something, no matter tiny it is. I compare that to the movies we can now pay per view, on cable or fiber systems. Few years ago we had to go to the store and rent the movie, pay 5 euros for a day or two, and after 2 weeks, we found it on the floor of our room... omg so many times that happened to me
So, easy way pay, i think that will be the near future, or maye not
Well 2010 has not been a good year for the whole genre (I'm glad) cause sick off linear themeparks offering no customization whatsoever.
Fact of the matter such reports are odd I mean how much p2w and how much p2p games are outthere (especially quality ones)? So such numbers could mean everthing and nothing.
Personally, I couldn't care less.
We need a MMORPG Cataclysm asap, finish the dark age of MMORPGS now!
"Everything you're bitching about is wrong. People don't have the time to invest in corpse runs, impossible zones, or long winded quests. Sometimes, they just want to pop on and play."
"Then maybe MMORPGs aren't for you."
This is sad indeed. First the genre was infested with Themeparks, hand-holding, easy street and WoW clones. Now Pay to Win model is gaining more and more traction.
The genre is in a desparate need of a renaissance...
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In 2002 I had 3 subs concurrently, there were no f2p games when I got bored of my main game
in 2011 I have no more then 1 active sub, although I switch from p2p games back and forth I sometimes stumble into a f2p that I enjoy for about a month.
I prefer p2p even over b2p personally. Trion (even though RIFT faded fast on me) is doing everything right with patches, content, customer service and gameplay. I hope they remain successful so companies follow their lead.
What did they think was going to happen?
Developers need to learn that WoW 2.0 isn't going to cut it.
Like others have pointed out it is not the subscription model at fault but the quality of the games that have come out.