I think we have some really optimistic people in this forum. And I think you all are just setting yourselves up for dissapointment.
Anet promised a beta release before the end of this year sure, but beta's can last longer than several months, and with as ambitious a game as this one is, I forsee the beta lasting longer than a usual beta. This isn't some WoW clone like Rift and TOR. The typical characteristics of this MMO are totally different than other MMO's. Because of this new style of MMO I can see balance issues between classes and AI bugs being frequent during beta.
Also, in 2010, we expected this game to be released in 2011, and all we got is a promise for the beta to be releaseed in 2011, and here we are coming on the end of 2011 and no beta has been officially announced yet.
I really forsee the game being launched in Q2, Q3, or possibly holiday 2012. Worst case scenario of course. I really REALLY, hope I'm wrong, but that's just me taking the facts that I've gathered and thinking them through.
Just wanted to put this out there to those new GW2 fans out there that are reading the forums and see this topic and getting your hopes up for an early 2012 release and not getting it, and being dissapointed.
Of course this entire thread is based aroiund mere speculation, and thats what I'm throwing out. So take this as long as everything else on this topic with a grain of salt. Situations can change instantly, and we could get a major announcement in a week, or a day, or in a couple of hours that changes everything. Who knows?
Most of their heavy testing are done via alpha and member/family testing, they've stated this explicitly. Closed beta is a chance for them to just do more polishing, catch a few small things they may have missed and so forth. I doubt they'll do any major changes during closed beta unless they have to.
There's no way NCSoft will allow ArenaNet to push the game all the way back into Q3. Q2, maybe, but ArenaNet is being paid in installments and they can't keep just working on it. There's no arm twisting yet, but if ArenaNet keeps on saying "When it's done" or "It's not there yet", I'm sure even NCSoft will start to get a little agnst.
Exactly. 3 months is my guess, that is short (long is 9+ months, between is standard) unless they find something bad during the beta. That would mean a launch around mars, give or take a month.
Just hope it doesn't get delayed until jupiter..
(sorry, couldn't resist it)..
As long as it doesn't get pushed back until pluto. Then we'd all be screwed.
Exactly. 3 months is my guess, that is short (long is 9+ months, between is standard) unless they find something bad during the beta. That would mean a launch around mars, give or take a month.
Just hope it doesn't get delayed until jupiter..
(sorry, couldn't resist it)..
As long as it doesn't get pushed back until pluto. Then we'd all be screwed.
Oh.. well. Loke used it correctly Mars as the roman god mars(not the planet, or better, the planet was also named after the god) was the old name for the month march.
Jupiter on the other side is a roman god, too. But not a month was named after him, it was a day.. thursday..(and of course the planet) so a lil bit off.
And pluto is at least also a roman/greek god, but neither a month nor a day was called after the god of the underworld... just the planet... so completely off.
So.. the right answer would be.. as long as it doesnt get delayed until Juno. By the way another roman god, the wife of jupiter and name giver for June. ( And to get the planets right.. Juno was the daughter of Saturn, and the mother of Mars and Vulcan )
I've worked a hedge into my release estimates, because no matter what the best case timeline is, there can always be issues that pop up and extend testing. I really think that there is a very high probability of release by the end of February 2012, taking what we can piece together from ANet with Closed Beta starting near the end of 2011.
If Closed Beta does start by early November, the game really would have a realistic shot of a January 2012 release.
What is key to making a projection in the case of GW2 is understanding the hints we have as to what ANet's approach to beta is likely to be.
ANet have been playing the game extensively for over a year. A couple months ago, they launched Closed Alpha, which added in family, friends and others that ANet have 1st person relationships with. ANet has been stressing a lot the past week that their Closed Beta is not what we have come to expect from other Closed Betas. They have no plans to have applications for Closed Beta. They may not even have much of an increase in the number of testers for the Closed Beta vs. the Closed Alpha. The term they are using is a Private Closed Beta.
So, what would distinguish Closed Alpha from Closed Beta? In my opinion, the distinction is that Closed Beta will signal the point in Private Testing where the game is content complete and the game feature set is locked. It's the first stage of testing of the game as it is intended for launch. That doesn't mean that there won't be features still being implimented, bugs still being squashed and final touches applied to content, but the time for developing new systems or content, or making major changes to any element of game or engine design will be over.
Now, yes, it's possible that they intend this to be an extended process, but given the degree of polish seen in the convention demos over the past year, I just don't think there is going to be an extended period of time needed to put the final polish on the game once the content and feature set is frozen and they start focusing on getting the release candidate ready for prime time. Issues could still arise that cause delays, but I very strongly believe that Closed Beta may have an internal timeline of two months.
It's been made clear that ANet wants fan's first exposure to game play to be on a release worthy product. That seems to be a big reason that Closed Beta is going to be Private, with no planned application process.
Once the Open Beta begins, assuming the stress testing doesn't unveil serious issues, there is really no reason for Open Beta to last more than a month.
The start of closed beta will be an important milestone for fans, even if we don't get to actually partake. The timeline between the start of Closed Beta and Launch could be as short as three months, or even slightly less. Yes, it could be longer if issues do arise, but I really think three months is likely.
If the GStar rumor is true, Closed Beta would have to start by early November for Beta to already be under way in time for GStar. An early November start could easily lead to a launch by the end of January.
If it starts in October, release could be even sooner.
Exactly. 3 months is my guess, that is short (long is 9+ months, between is standard) unless they find something bad during the beta. That would mean a launch around mars, give or take a month.
Just hope it doesn't get delayed until jupiter..
(sorry, couldn't resist it)..
As long as it doesn't get pushed back until pluto. Then we'd all be screwed.
Oh.. well. Loke used it correctly Mars as the roman god mars(not the planet, or better, the planet was also named after the god) was the old name for the month march.
Jupiter on the other side is a roman god, too. But not a month was named after him, it was a day.. thursday..(and of course the planet) so a lil bit off.
And pluto is at least also a roman/greek god, but neither a month nor a day was called after the god of the underworld... just the planet... so completely off.
So.. the right answer would be.. as long as it doesnt get delayed until Juno. By the way another roman god, the wife of jupiter and name giver for June. ( And to get the planets right.. Juno was the daughter of Saturn, and the mother of Mars and Vulcan )
Thursday is Thor's Day......after the norse god Thor. Jupiters day is Iovis Dies which is the same day of the week, but latin, and not in use. Yes he was associated with thunder too, but Thor won that battle of the gods.
Comments
Most of their heavy testing are done via alpha and member/family testing, they've stated this explicitly. Closed beta is a chance for them to just do more polishing, catch a few small things they may have missed and so forth. I doubt they'll do any major changes during closed beta unless they have to.
There's no way NCSoft will allow ArenaNet to push the game all the way back into Q3. Q2, maybe, but ArenaNet is being paid in installments and they can't keep just working on it. There's no arm twisting yet, but if ArenaNet keeps on saying "When it's done" or "It's not there yet", I'm sure even NCSoft will start to get a little agnst.
As long as it doesn't get pushed back until pluto. Then we'd all be screwed.
Oh.. well. Loke used it correctly Mars as the roman god mars(not the planet, or better, the planet was also named after the god) was the old name for the month march.
Jupiter on the other side is a roman god, too. But not a month was named after him, it was a day.. thursday..(and of course the planet) so a lil bit off.
And pluto is at least also a roman/greek god, but neither a month nor a day was called after the god of the underworld... just the planet... so completely off.
So.. the right answer would be.. as long as it doesnt get delayed until Juno. By the way another roman god, the wife of jupiter and name giver for June.
( And to get the planets right.. Juno was the daughter of Saturn, and the mother of Mars and Vulcan 
)
I've worked a hedge into my release estimates, because no matter what the best case timeline is, there can always be issues that pop up and extend testing. I really think that there is a very high probability of release by the end of February 2012, taking what we can piece together from ANet with Closed Beta starting near the end of 2011.
If Closed Beta does start by early November, the game really would have a realistic shot of a January 2012 release.
What is key to making a projection in the case of GW2 is understanding the hints we have as to what ANet's approach to beta is likely to be.
ANet have been playing the game extensively for over a year. A couple months ago, they launched Closed Alpha, which added in family, friends and others that ANet have 1st person relationships with. ANet has been stressing a lot the past week that their Closed Beta is not what we have come to expect from other Closed Betas. They have no plans to have applications for Closed Beta. They may not even have much of an increase in the number of testers for the Closed Beta vs. the Closed Alpha. The term they are using is a Private Closed Beta.
So, what would distinguish Closed Alpha from Closed Beta? In my opinion, the distinction is that Closed Beta will signal the point in Private Testing where the game is content complete and the game feature set is locked. It's the first stage of testing of the game as it is intended for launch. That doesn't mean that there won't be features still being implimented, bugs still being squashed and final touches applied to content, but the time for developing new systems or content, or making major changes to any element of game or engine design will be over.
Now, yes, it's possible that they intend this to be an extended process, but given the degree of polish seen in the convention demos over the past year, I just don't think there is going to be an extended period of time needed to put the final polish on the game once the content and feature set is frozen and they start focusing on getting the release candidate ready for prime time. Issues could still arise that cause delays, but I very strongly believe that Closed Beta may have an internal timeline of two months.
It's been made clear that ANet wants fan's first exposure to game play to be on a release worthy product. That seems to be a big reason that Closed Beta is going to be Private, with no planned application process.
Once the Open Beta begins, assuming the stress testing doesn't unveil serious issues, there is really no reason for Open Beta to last more than a month.
The start of closed beta will be an important milestone for fans, even if we don't get to actually partake. The timeline between the start of Closed Beta and Launch could be as short as three months, or even slightly less. Yes, it could be longer if issues do arise, but I really think three months is likely.
If the GStar rumor is true, Closed Beta would have to start by early November for Beta to already be under way in time for GStar. An early November start could easily lead to a launch by the end of January.
If it starts in October, release could be even sooner.
Want to know more about GW2 and why there is so much buzz? Start here: Guild Wars 2 Mass Info for the Uninitiated
Thursday is Thor's Day......after the norse god Thor. Jupiters day is Iovis Dies which is the same day of the week, but latin, and not in use. Yes he was associated with thunder too, but Thor won that battle of the gods.