'Hunch'?? I prefer 'educated projections based on long term familiarity of the market and intimate knowledge of the game ' :P
Kidding aside though, yeah it WILL be interesting and I definitely will be paying attention as it matures. I expect it to be at around 500,000 subs at the six month mark, probably around 300,000 at the end of year one.
Actually, you only prove with that last sentence how much you contradict yourself (and how much you hate SWTOR and themepark MMO's maybe?) and how little you know of the market or familiar you are with it.
Looking at the figures and trends of other MMO's past their launch, SWTOR would have to do abominably worse than other MMO's to be left with 500k subs at the 6 month mark or 300k at the end. Sorry, but that's not making educated guesses based on former MMO's, that's just trashtalking and bashing a game someone despises and wishes/hopes for to fail
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Dang, that is impressive. I don't exactly get why American numbers are so important though, myself I see it as West and East (and I count Japan as West), and only so because there usually is a big difference in how subscription works.
But sure, you Yanks are number one or something.
Still, I never seen anything like this before with a MMO, heck, I never seen half of those numbers in pre orders.
It will be very interesting to see how this will turn out, one way or another will this affect the genre a lot.
I think the American box preorders were mentioned, because that's the only one that there was a number of.
Europe usually isn't that far behind US as seen in sub numbers in WoW and Rift and other MMO's, but it's often harder to find figures of European subs and sales, certainly in vgchartz.
Originally posted by vesavius
I don't thin k I have heard a single person say this game wouldnt shift a ton of boxes at launch. Even it's taunchest critics agree with that.
It's retention is what most have questioned.
Let's be honest... It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months.
Actually, I HAVE seen a number of haters and critics say that the game wouldn't sell a ton of boxes, bc it was scifi and not fantasy, bc MMO gamers were tired of WoW clones, etc etc.
Only when it became clear that SWTOR was gaining a lot of preorders those voices became silent or changed their tune.
Let's be honest... if the numbers will look still amazing after 5 months, haters and critics will just change their tune into another negative prediction again, just as doomsayers and naysayers have been predicting the doom and massive decline of WoW subs within a year since 2007.
I guess sometimes I feel kind of odd on these forums.
I can't say I really recall any shift by "haters" over pre-orders.
My personal belief was always that this game would sell a huge number of boxes. In fact I've always believed that it will set a current record for an MMO on initial sales. I believe they will likely recover the entire cost of production with the pre-orders alone or at least within the first 30 days... in that sense the game will be a huge success.
I also believe that the game will see a massive loss of subscriber numbers within the first 12 months of operation. Thing is it will still have enough subscribers to turn a profit (aka be successful). So my view is never about this game being a failure but yes I do agree with the idea it will not retain numbers.
The WoW subs thing is kind of hard to see as relative to this discussion. I've never personally thought much about WoW's number tho yes I've read all the "wow killer" comments blah blah. Yet it is an entirely different situation really.
I don't really get the wow hate on forums. Or why every single MMO I play has a general chat filled with wow comments. Then again that kind of shows you what other MMO's have to overcome... even I get to the point where I am seeing so much talk about wow .. I think I might as well just go play wow.
Anyway.. I guess by December 2012 I will know if I was right or wrong in my predictions about sub number drop offs.
If numbers do drop I will give 2 reasons now for why it happens.
1) design choices made
2) they should have muzzled George so he pissed off less potential customers with his obnoxious statements. Its hard enough to sell an optional product in a bad economy... without having someone with a company tag make the public statements this guy has.
Oh and yes this is all just my opinion... I don't claim it as fact .. or if you will... its fact as I view this topic.
I don't thin k I have heard a single person say this game wouldnt shift a ton of boxes at launch. Even it's taunchest critics agree with that.
It's retention is what most have questioned.
Let's be honest... It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months.
Honesty based on what? Your personal assumptions? A hunch?
I agree that many mmorpgs in the past tanked heavily after the initial three months or so, but not all of them ...
EVE and WOW, but maybe also Lotro and some others showed increasing amounts of subs well after launch.
it's just a turn of phrase Pony... (ie. a characteristic way or mode of expression or a brief, apt, and cogent expression )))))).. relax lol.
Leaving LotR aside, because you seem unsure yourself of it, yes WoW's unique success in the west is legendary, but saying this game can do the same because that one did is reaching a bit IMO. WoW's performance is rightly recognised as the exception, not the rule.
(EVE is a completely different beast and has very little to do with the SWtoR casual themepark market so the two cannot be used to indicate the other... again IMO)
I personally expect this game to behave more like Rift, though in bigger initial numbers due to a huge IP and brand name. Out of any game in the same space and sharing the same model (playwise, market wise, and revenue wise) they are the most similar.
Alright, hunches then
Bottom line: we shall see how it will fare three months in or so. I am just as curious as anyone, but my expectation is that it will follow the WOW curve for the first year or so, after that it's about what expanions will offer.
'Hunch'?? I prefer 'educated projections based on long term familiarity of the market and intimate knowledge of the game ' :P
Kidding aside though, yeah it WILL be interesting and I definitely will be paying attention as it matures. I expect it to be at around 500,000 subs at the six month mark, probably around 300,000 at the end of year one.
kind of? This is why I can't give any of your "hunches" the smallest amount of respect. If you can't even acknowledge that the preorders for this game are absolutely amazing, then you're obviously coming at this with an incredible bias.
My, how easily you are offended... Look I said, "It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months".
That obviously is not talking about the pre orders, and nor does it dismiss the high figures of the pre orders.
The 'kind of' was meant to reflect that 2,000,000 is pretty good, but it certainly isn't the highest these games can potentiolly go. I had no idea anyone would get offended by me suggesting that SWtoR wouldn't be the biggest game evah.
Over sensitive responding FTW
fact that this is only "kind of" amazing numbers in your view tells us quite a lot about your view and how seriously it should be taken.
I have no interest in getting into a personal slanging match with you about my 'bias'. I just don't care enough tbh.
I will just use ignore foryou and focus on the forum members that want to talk about games and not just other forum members.
Believing that SWtoR is only good enough to retain 500k users at 6 months has nothing to do with maths. 17% retention at month 6 in a game like this one, with a limited themepark model aimed at the super casual market, that will rely on expensive slow to produce content to keep folk hooked in? I personally think thats entirely feasible.
It has everything to do with math. It's facts, lol.
3,000,000 X 17%= 501k. That isn't hard to understand. Anyone arguing that isn't true is just arguing to argue.
If you want to argue the game's merits, that's a different thread altogether ("Why I don't like TOR"). But if you need a clearer picture:
Player 1: "I don't like TOR and I'm unsubbing."
Player 2: "I don't like TOR and I'm unsubbing."
Player 3: "I don't like TOR and I'm unsubbing."
Player 4: "I don't like TOR and I'm unsubbing."
Player 5: "I like TOR, I'm going to keep subbing."
'Hunch'?? I prefer 'educated projections based on long term familiarity of the market and intimate knowledge of the game ' :P
Kidding aside though, yeah it WILL be interesting and I definitely will be paying attention as it matures. I expect it to be at around 500,000 subs at the six month mark, probably around 300,000 at the end of year one.
Actually, you only prove with that last sentence how much you contradict yourself (and how much you hate SWTOR and themepark MMO's maybe?) and how little you know of the market or familiar you are with it.
Looking at the figures and trends of other MMO's past their launch, SWTOR would have to do abominably worse than other MMO's to be left with 500k subs at the 6 month mark or 300k at the end. Sorry, but that's not making educated guesses based on former MMO's, that's just trashtalking and bashing a game someone despises and wishes/hopes for to fail
I guess sometimes I feel kind of odd on these forums.
I can't say I really recall any shift by "haters" over pre-orders.
My personal belief was always that this game would sell a huge number of boxes. In fact I've always believed that it will set a current record for an MMO on initial sales. I believe they will likely recover the entire cost of production with the pre-orders alone or at least within the first 30 days... in that sense the game will be a huge success.
I also believe that the game will see a massive loss of subscriber numbers within the first 12 months of operation. Thing is it will still have enough subscribers to turn a profit (aka be successful). So my view is never about this game being a failure but yes I do agree with the idea it will not retain numbers.
The WoW subs thing is kind of hard to see as relative to this discussion. I've never personally thought much about WoW's number tho yes I've read all the "wow killer" comments blah blah. Yet it is an entirely different situation really.
I dont really get the wow hate on forums. Or why every single MMO I play has a general chat filled with wow comments. Then again that kind of shows you what other MMO's have to overcome... even I get to the point where I am seeing so much talk about wow .. I think I might as well just go play wow.
Anyway.. I guess by December 2012 I will know if I was right or wrong in my predictions about sub number drop offs.
If numbers do drop I will give 2 reasons now for why it happens.
1) design choices made
2) they should have muzzled George so he pissed off less potential customers with his obnoxious statements. Its hard enough to sell an optional product in a bad economy... without having someone with a company tag make the public statements this guy has.
Oh and yes this is all just my opinion... I don't claim it as fact .. or if you will... its fact as I view this topic.
I don't thin k I have heard a single person say this game wouldnt shift a ton of boxes at launch. Even it's taunchest critics agree with that.
It's retention is what most have questioned.
Let's be honest... It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months.
Honesty based on what? Your personal assumptions? A hunch?
I agree that many mmorpgs in the past tanked heavily after the initial three months or so, but not all of them ...
EVE and WOW, but maybe also Lotro and some others showed increasing amounts of subs well after launch.
it's just a turn of phrase Pony... (ie. a characteristic way or mode of expression or a brief, apt, and cogent expression )))))).. relax lol.
Leaving LotR aside, because you seem unsure yourself of it, yes WoW's unique success in the west is legendary, but saying this game can do the same because that one did is reaching a bit IMO. WoW's performance is rightly recognised as the exception, not the rule.
(EVE is a completely different beast and has very little to do with the SWtoR casual themepark market so the two cannot be used to indicate the other... again IMO)
I personally expect this game to behave more like Rift, though in bigger initial numbers due to a huge IP and brand name. Out of any game in the same space and sharing the same model (playwise, market wise, and revenue wise) they are the most similar.
Alright, hunches then
Bottom line: we shall see how it will fare three months in or so. I am just as curious as anyone, but my expectation is that it will follow the WOW curve for the first year or so, after that it's about what expanions will offer.
'Hunch'?? I prefer 'educated projections based on long term familiarity of the market and intimate knowledge of the game ' :P
Kidding aside though, yeah it WILL be interesting and I definitely will be paying attention as it matures. I expect it to be at around 500,000 subs at the six month mark, probably around 300,000 at the end of year one.
kind of? This is why I can't give any of your "hunches" the smallest amount of respect. If you can't even acknowledge that the preorders for this game are absolutely amazing, then you're obviously coming at this with an incredible bias.
My, how easily you are offended... Look I said, "It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months".
That obviously is not talking about the pre orders, and nor does it dismiss the high figures of the pre orders.
The 'kind of' was meant to reflect that 2,000,000 is pretty good, but it certainly isn't the highest these games can potentiolly go. I had no idea anyone would get offended by me suggesting that SWtoR wouldn't be the biggest game evah.
Over sensitive responding FTW
fact that this is only "kind of" amazing numbers in your view tells us quite a lot about your view and how seriously it should be taken.
I have no interest in getting into a personal slanging match with you about my 'bias'. I just don't care enough tbh.
I will just use ignore foryou and focus on the forum members that want to talk about games and not just other forum members.
Believing that SWtoR is only good enough to retain 500k users at 6 months has nothing to do with maths.
17% retention at month 6 in a game like this one, with a limited themepark model aimed at the super casual market, that will rely on expensive slow to produce content to keep folk hooked in? I personally think thats entirely feasible.
It has everything to do with math. It's facts, lol.
3,000,000 X 17%= 501k. That isn't hard to understand. Anyone arguing that isn't true is just arguing to argue.
If you want to argue the game's merits, that's a different thread altogether ("Why I don't like TOR"). But if you need a clearer picture:
Player 1: "I don't like TOR and I'm unsubbing."
Player 2: "I don't like TOR and I'm unsubbing."
Player 3: "I don't like TOR and I'm unsubbing."
Player 4: "I don't like TOR and I'm unsubbing."
Player 5: "I like TOR, I'm going to keep subbing."
It's that simple.
Lol, thank you for typing that out, I m too lazy to Hard to see why people like this don t give up on their pointless dribble.
I guess sometimes I feel kind of odd on these forums.
I can't say I really recall any shift by "haters" over pre-orders.
My personal belief was always that this game would sell a huge number of boxes. In fact I've always believed that it will set a current record for an MMO on initial sales. I believe they will likely recover the entire cost of production with the pre-orders alone or at least within the first 30 days... in that sense the game will be a huge success.
I also believe that the game will see a massive loss of subscriber numbers within the first 12 months of operation. Thing is it will still have enough subscribers to turn a profit (aka be successful). So my view is never about this game being a failure but yes I do agree with the idea it will not retain numbers.
The WoW subs thing is kind of hard to see as relative to this discussion. I've never personally thought much about WoW's number tho yes I've read all the "wow killer" comments blah blah. Yet it is an entirely different situation really.
If numbers do drop I will give 2 reasons now for why it happens.
1) design choices made
2) they should have muzzled George so he pissed off less potential customers with his obnoxious statements. Its hard enough to sell an optional product in a bad economy... without having someone with a company tag make the public statements this guy has.
Some critics/haters actually did claim that, that SWTOR would never have that high sales, but whenever they mentioned it it made as little sense as people claiming that SWTOR will have even worse percentage sub losses than as good as all other AAA MMO's.
As for your points why a drop off would happen, sure, it's your opinion but flawed arguments based on the following:
1. the themepark design choice managed WoW to have a huge boost of players who stayed in it for years, even LotrO managed to hold on to the larger part of its playerbase for a very long time. So I don't see why suddenly the design choice would be a problem within months, if it obviously wasn't a problem in other themepark MMO's.
2. 99.9% of the players won't give one single fuck about what George said, and certainly won't take his words into considerating whether to buy a game or not, that's just in your mind and why you maybe wouldn't buy it.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Believing that SWtoR is only good enough to retain 500k users at 6 months has nothing to do with maths.
17% retention at month 6 in a game like this one, with a limited themepark model aimed at the super casual market, that will rely on expensive slow to produce content to keep folk hooked in? I personally think thats entirely feasible.
It has everything to do with math. It's facts, lol.
3,000,000 X 17%= 501k. That isn't hard to understand.
No one argued that... I don't get what your actually debating here tbh...
The clear point being made is that 17% retention at 6 months, based on the super casual target market, limited themepark content of game, and the inherent difficulties of producing additional content in the way they have chosen on an ongoing basis is feasible.
You seem to want to make out other people are somehow stupid more then just talk about games tbh, and that's a shame.
No one argued that... I don't get what your actually debating here tbh...
The clear point being made is that 17% retention at 6 months, based on the super casual target market, limited themepark content of game, and the inherent difficulties of producing additional content in the way they have chosen on an ongoing basis is feasible.
You seem to want to make out other people are somehow stupid more then just talk about games tbh, and that's a shame.
This is just a lot of blabla argumenting: fact is that most AAA MMORPG's have had a higher player retention in 6 months and 12 months than the percentages you're picturing for SWTOR, smaller MMO's and far buggier MMO's, that's why your argument sounds nonsensical.
That's what other people are referring to and frankly, I find it dumbfounding and stupefying that you don't realise that fact, that your projections in no way have any correlation with the past of other AAA MMO's.
To me, it sounds simple: you hate/dislike SWTOR and the themepark design model, therefore you ignore any past successes of that model and project figures that are a lot lower than what could be concluded from past trends with other MMO's; because it's your wish, not a solid, well founded extrapolation using former MMO sub trends.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Originally posted by vesavius No one argued that... I don't get what your actually debating here tbh... The clear point being made is that 17% retention at 6 months, based on the super casual target market, limited themepark content of game, and the inherent difficulties of producing additional content in the way they have chosen on an ongoing basis is feasible. You seem to want to make out other people are somehow stupid more then just talk about games tbh, and that's a shame.
No. Not all all. Some people prove that on their own (not you). I'll tell you what: I'll let YOU make the case for the success of SWTOR, how's that? Again, with FACTS.
You said:
Originally posted by vesavius I expect it to be at around 500,000 subs at the six month mark, probably around 300,000 at the end of year one.
Bioware/EA said this:
"We previously described to folks that 500,000 subscribers saw the game as substantially profitable.."
That's the 17% right there you agreed they will get which is "substantially PROFITABLE", haha!
So even if they drop down to 300K, that puts them at "profitable" now, especially given they would have simply sold their way almost to profitability from game sales alone.
Unknowingly, you've just made the case for SWTOR's success despite all your protesting.
No one argued that... I don't get what your actually debating here tbh...
The clear point being made is that 17% retention at 6 months, based on the super casual target market, limited themepark content of game, and the inherent difficulties of producing additional content in the way they have chosen on an ongoing basis is feasible.
You seem to want to make out other people are somehow stupid more then just talk about games tbh, and that's a shame.
No. Not all all. Some people prove that on their own (not you). I'll tell you what: I'll let YOU make the case for the success of SWTOR, how's that? Again, with FACTS.
You said:
Originally posted by vesavius
I expect it to be at around 500,000 subs at the six month mark, probably around 300,000 at the end of year one.
Bioware/EA said this:
"We previously described to folks that 500,000 subscribers saw the game as substantially profitable.."
That's the 17% right there you agreed they will get which is "substantially PROFITABLE", haha!
So even if they drop down to 300K, that puts them at "profitable" now, especially given they would have simply sold their way almost to profitability from game sales alone.
Unknowingly, you've just made the case for SWTOR's success despite all your protesting.
i thought a company wasn't succesful without wow numbers? :P
"The great thing about human language is that it prevents us from sticking to the matter at hand." - Lewis Thomas
No one argued that... I don't get what your actually debating here tbh...
The clear point being made is that 17% retention at 6 months, based on the super casual target market, limited themepark content of game, and the inherent difficulties of producing additional content in the way they have chosen on an ongoing basis is feasible.
You seem to want to make out other people are somehow stupid more then just talk about games tbh, and that's a shame.
No. Not all all. Some people prove that on their own (not you). I'll tell you what: I'll let YOU make the case for the success of SWTOR, how's that? Again, with FACTS.
You said:
Originally posted by vesavius
I expect it to be at around 500,000 subs at the six month mark, probably around 300,000 at the end of year one.
Bioware/EA said this:
"We previously described to folks that 500,000 subscribers saw the game as substantially profitable.."
That's the 17% right there you agreed they will get which is "substantially PROFITABLE", haha!
So even if they drop down to 300K, that puts them at "profitable" now, especially given they would have simply sold their way almost to profitability from game sales alone.
Unknowingly, you've just made the case for SWTOR's success despite all your protesting.
I have repeatedly said, in this very thread no less, that I think SWtoR will be successful financially. I have never 'protested' otherwise.
At no point have I said this 17% will be a 'fail'.
If I have, link it to me here.
in short, you have invested a lot of energy in dispproving a view I simply no not hold.
In fact, every one of your replies to me has been the same... you seem to consistently answer what you WANT to be said rather then whats BEING said. And then you consistently make out people are 'stupid' for disagreeing with you... You have a very laboursome way of 'debating' tbh.
I have repeatedly said, in this very thread no less, that I think SWtoR will be successful financially. I have never 'protested' otherwise.At no point have I said this 17% will be a 'fail'.If I have, link it to me here.
You have also repeatedly said things like "long term retention" and then suggesting it won't sustain itself, and will end up like other games that started strong and faded. You didn't have to write "it will fail", you're pretty much implying it but accidentally proving otherwise.
I have repeatedly said, in this very thread no less, that I think SWtoR will be successful financially. I have never 'protested' otherwise.
At no point have I said this 17% will be a 'fail'.
If I have, link it to me here.
You have also repeatedly said things like "long term retention" and then suggesting it won't sustain itself, and will end up like other games that started strong and faded. You didn't have to write "it will fail", you're pretty much implying it but accidentally proving otherwise
ahh now we are using words like 'suggesting' and 'implying', which are obviously just code for 'you didn't actually say, but I chose to see because it suited the argument I wanted to have'.
Honestly Pop... your making yourself look a bit silly here now
How about we just stick to what actually is being said and the actual points being made... theres enough in that to not to need to go inventing stuff.
I have repeatedly said, in this very thread no less, that I think SWtoR will be successful financially. I have never 'protested' otherwise.
At no point have I said this 17% will be a 'fail'.
If I have, link it to me here.
You have also repeatedly said things like "long term retention" and then suggesting it won't sustain itself, and will end up like other games that started strong and faded. You didn't have to write "it will fail", you're pretty much implying it but accidentally proving otherwise
ahh now we are using words like 'suggesting' and 'implying', which are obviously just code for 'you didn't actually say, but I chose to see'.
Honestly Pop... your making yourself look a bit silly here now
How about we just stick to what actually is being said and the actual points being made... theres enough in that to not to need to go inventing stuff.
So you have a point to make? What, exactly, is it?
Originally posted by vesavius ahh now we are using words like 'suggesting' and 'implying', which are obviously just code for 'you didn't actually say, but I chose to see'. How about we just stick to what actually is being said and the actual points being made... theres enough in that to not to need to go inventing stuff.
What's actually being said? Fair enough:
Vesavius on SWTOR:
I personally think themepark + expensive/ slow content is a long term suicide note, but thats just me. people won't notice the cracks for 4-6months though I shouldn't think, so it won't hurt their box sales and the game will still do well at launch.
Part of what I am saying is do not be too gloating if you see 100000 great reviews to 1 bad one by launch. The real reviews will arrive 1-2 months after launch.
We will see actual honest reviews start to arrive afterwards when the advertising revenue starts to dry up and when smaller sites and bloggers have had real experience with it.
The trueful opinions will arrive around 1-2 months after, when the launch hype has passed, or whenever EA stop spending millions on advertising.
Vesavius on his personal feelings about SWTOR:
The extremely traditional, yes, WoW route thet have chosen is dissapointing. This could have been so much more considering the budget.
I WAS looking forward to this game, I DID want it to work. It ISNT the worst game ever, and it WILL do well. I just feel they could have made a lot of better choices. I have no blanket hate for it.
Vesavius on SWTOR retention:
It's retention is what most have questioned. Let's be honest... It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months.
We all get it. Vesavius wanted TOR to be something different for HIM. It looks as if it won't be for HIM. So Vesavius thinks because they aren't making the game HE thinks they should make, he's disappointed.
So Vesavius posts little statements here/there that leak out and show what he thinks will happen because Bioware isn't going down the path HE thinks they should have taken with ALLLL that money.. short-term success and long-term failure.
You continue to make posts suggesting the only reason TOR has gotten good reviews is because Bioware has paid off or compensated just about all reviewers of it, except for the tiny few intrepid press critics who dare to agree with you that the game is lacking.
You seem to think there is some groundswell after one month that all the "truth" will come out and the game will suffer, as if enough truth hasn't been leaked already about what's in/not in the game. No bombshells are waiting, my friend. You've heard the worst there is to hear. The rest will be the usual "Log in queue stinks! Bug here, bug there!" posts every game gets.
There are no skeletons in the TOR closet and the "important" things you think should have been in there won't matter to most players.. and I think that's going to irritate you the most after all is said and done. If the press release didn't have one or two gamebreaking news items from even the reviews you respect, then their are none. They simply don't exist.
I hope you don't think I'm putting words in your mouth or a flame. But you wanted me to go on what you said, and there you have it.
Originally posted by MMO.Maverick Let's be honest... if the numbers will look still amazing after 5 months, haters and critics will just change their tune into another negative prediction again, just as doomsayers and naysayers have been predicting the doom and massive decline of WoW subs within a year since 2007.
A likely scenario is 5 million people play TOR in the first 3 months but after that only 2 million stick around. Result is a lot of servers either merging or closing. That will be seen a failure despite the fact that millions of people are still playing. Rift had to do it and look how much crap gets thrown their way for it?
Its funny because this is a normal aspect of AAA mmos and people still don't get it. You have to have enough room to accommodate all the people that want to take your game for a test run of a month or two. But when obviously there is no such thing as a 100% retention rate, the game still gets bashed when servers have to go away.
ahh now we are using words like 'suggesting' and 'implying', which are obviously just code for 'you didn't actually say, but I chose to see'.
How about we just stick to what actually is being said and the actual points being made... theres enough in that to not to need to go inventing stuff.
What's actually being said? Fair enough:
Vesavius on SWTOR:
I personally think themepark + expensive/ slow content is a long term suicide note, but thats just me.
people won't notice the cracks for 4-6months though I shouldn't think, so it won't hurt their box sales and the game will still do well at launch.
Part of what I am saying is do not be too gloating if you see 100000 great reviews to 1 bad one by launch. The real reviews will arrive 1-2 months after launch.
We will see actual honest reviews start to arrive afterwards when the advertising revenue starts to dry up and when smaller sites and bloggers have had real experience with it.
The trueful opinions will arrive around 1-2 months after, when the launch hype has passed, or whenever EA stop spending millions on advertising.
Vesavius on his personal feelings about SWTOR:
The extremely traditional, yes, WoW route thet have chosen is dissapointing. This could have been so much more considering the budget.
I WAS looking forward to this game, I DID want it to work. It ISNT the worst game ever, and it WILL do well. I just feel they could have made a lot of better choices. I have no blanket hate for it.
Vesavius on SWTOR retention:
It's retention is what most have questioned.
Let's be honest... It will only have (kind of) amazing numbers for the first 3-5 months.
We all get it. Vesavius wanted TOR to be something different for HIM. It looks as if it won't be for HIM. So Vesavius thinks because they aren't making the game HE thinks they should make, he's disappointed.
I thought this was a given, I have no idea why you think you are proving anything here (though your willingness to pay me this much attention is flattering)
SWtoR isn't for me, just as it IS for you. That's where the discussion lies... in the ground between.
But.. am I dissapointed in SWtoR and what they have come up with, despite intially being very interested in it? Yes.
So Vesavius posts little statements here/there that leak out and show what he thinks will happen because Bioware isn't going down the path HE thinks they should have taken with ALLLL that money.. short-term success and long-term failure.
I have never used the word 'failure'. Thats your interpretation, reinvention, and projection on to me (as you obviously keep doing).
I admit fully that I am dissapointed in the overall implementation and design of this game, and i say that as a player that generally likes themepark games.
I also state that it will be successful though and do well financially, as you demonstrate nicely for me here several times.
I also give positive credit to their story areas, companions, and environmental graphics (but you chose to not quote me saying that)
You continue to make posts suggesting the only reason TOR has gotten good reviews is because Bioware has paid off or compensated just about all reviewers of it, except for the tiny few intrepid press critics who dare to agree with you that the game is lacking.
I stand by this.
It seems all your effort here seems to be trying to prove that I am talking about my opinion... Well.. yes I am. As you are yours... I don't get what else your trying to prove.
Look, I don't mind you quoting me here, like I say the obvious effort you have invested is flattering, but maybe next time provide links the to threads in order to give context. Otherwise it looks like you are pulling quotes out that just suit what (I think) your trying to say. Just a suggestion.
Let's be honest... if the numbers will look still amazing after 5 months, haters and critics will just change their tune into another negative prediction again, just as doomsayers and naysayers have been predicting the doom and massive decline of WoW subs within a year since 2007.
A likely scenario is 5 million people play TOR in the first 3 months but after that only 2 million stick around. Result is a lot of servers either merging or closing. That will be seen a failure despite the fact that millions of people are still playing. Rift had to do it and look how much crap gets thrown their way for it?
Its funny because this is a normal aspect of AAA mmos and people still don't get it. You have to have enough room to accommodate all the people that want to take your game for a test run of a month or two. But when obviously there is no such thing as a 100% retention rate, the game still gets bashed when servers have to go away.
I dont know if we will see a popultaion drop like rift or any other mmo before in this case, i mean, swtor is the 1st real AAA mmo, not like rift, aion, War, aoc, etc etc. And BW can make new content and updates pretty fast, well they already have post-launch content. if the game is good, i dont think that we will see a drop in the population numbers.
Just a bit of perspective (a word the fanboys/trolls may want to look up)
as others have said war had close to that number pre-orders with a lesser ip and lesser advertising
lotro has sold over 5 mil boxes they had to start with the f2p build within what 2 yrs of release
the numbers have likely been released because they sound good and so they get a bit of free advertising out of them, they mean diddly squat in the long temr
Just a bit of perspective (a word the fanboys/trolls may want to look up)
as others have said war had close to that number pre-orders with a lesser ip and lesser advertising
lotro has sold over 5 mil boxes they had to start with the f2p build within what 2 yrs of release
the numbers have likely been released because they sound good and so they get a bit of free advertising out of them, they mean diddly squat in the long temr
There's a difference. Neither WAR nor LotrO had the number of preorders that SWTOR is having for its North American region and boxes alone. On top of that, there's the digital preorders and the European box and digital preorders.
As for player retention, from what I recall, LotrO didn't do bad at all, certainly not the first year.
WAR had issues in that it was an unfinished or unpolished product, with a number of good ideas but not taken the time to polish them as they deserved.
It's hard to determine what's the real success factor in the end, but I think it's a combination of polish, accessibility, catering to various play styles and amount of content. These factors have little to do with sandbox or themepark, both can be immensely satisfying to the people to which playstyle it caters to.
From what it looks like, in amount of content, worldsize and features, SWTOR is easily equal to WoW and LotrO, and it has more 'world' to offer than Rift. Polish, accessibility, I think they're facilitated as well.
From what I see so far, SWTOR will be one of the best in the category of themepark MMORPG's, so the question is 'can an MMORPG within the themepark school of design provide longterm player retention'?
Critics of the themepark MMO design will say 'no, it can't' and say that WoW is a perfect storm. Personally, I doubt that statement: LotrO is a themepark MMO as well and did well for quite a long time, Aion is a themepark MMO too and still has 70-100 active servers worldwide, a million+ subs and is the 2nd MMORPG in terms of revenues if I'm correct.
But we will find out when SWTOR hits the market.
Personally, I'm most curious about the 'magnet' effect: what people tend to forget and ignore, is that often a simple but main reason why people keep playing an MMORPG is because of their friends and acquaintances. WoW had a lot of people returning to it or staying there because you knew that a lot of friends or former guildies were still there. But what if they aren't? What if that MMORPG would be another one? That's the question I think I'll see answered with SWTOR and GW2 hitting the MMO market.
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
My prediction, based on my _opinion_ (which, for those especially dense, means "I don't have hard facts, and neither do you"), is that SWTOR will be huge initially, with well over 5 millions games sold in first month, at least. May be more, 7 millions? I don't know. I certainly would be one of those.
Most people will burn through game's content and end-game content in 3 months. Since I have no interest in end-game raiding, will not play force-users, and have little hope for pvp, I will likely finish all there is to do there in a month or two. Major content expansion will not be out earlier than a year after the start.
After 3 months the base of subscribers will shrink significantly; no more than 30% of those who bought the game; worst case scenario - 15%.
That still means a very successfull return-on-investments, so I would say the game will be a success. But whining and crying on forums will be meta-epic. Expectations destroyed, end of the Mmorpg as a genre, threats of suicide (oh, please do! Human race needs some culling. Do you know there are 7 billions of us? Just yesterday it was 6, I remember 6th billion child a big deal!)
Expectations destroyed, end of the Mmorpg as a genre, threats of suicide (oh, please do! Human race needs some culling. Do you know there are 7 billions of us? Just yesterday it was 6, I remember 6th billion child a big deal!)
Lol. This made me want to +1 your post if that would've been possible
... are we really at 7 billion already?? Damn... we need more wars...
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums: Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
Comments
Actually, you only prove with that last sentence how much you contradict yourself (and how much you hate SWTOR and themepark MMO's maybe?) and how little you know of the market or familiar you are with it.
Looking at the figures and trends of other MMO's past their launch, SWTOR would have to do abominably worse than other MMO's to be left with 500k subs at the 6 month mark or 300k at the end. Sorry, but that's not making educated guesses based on former MMO's, that's just trashtalking and bashing a game someone despises and wishes/hopes for to fail
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
I guess sometimes I feel kind of odd on these forums.
I can't say I really recall any shift by "haters" over pre-orders.
My personal belief was always that this game would sell a huge number of boxes. In fact I've always believed that it will set a current record for an MMO on initial sales. I believe they will likely recover the entire cost of production with the pre-orders alone or at least within the first 30 days... in that sense the game will be a huge success.
I also believe that the game will see a massive loss of subscriber numbers within the first 12 months of operation. Thing is it will still have enough subscribers to turn a profit (aka be successful). So my view is never about this game being a failure but yes I do agree with the idea it will not retain numbers.
The WoW subs thing is kind of hard to see as relative to this discussion. I've never personally thought much about WoW's number tho yes I've read all the "wow killer" comments blah blah. Yet it is an entirely different situation really.
I don't really get the wow hate on forums. Or why every single MMO I play has a general chat filled with wow comments. Then again that kind of shows you what other MMO's have to overcome... even I get to the point where I am seeing so much talk about wow .. I think I might as well just go play wow.
Anyway.. I guess by December 2012 I will know if I was right or wrong in my predictions about sub number drop offs.
If numbers do drop I will give 2 reasons now for why it happens.
1) design choices made
2) they should have muzzled George so he pissed off less potential customers with his obnoxious statements. Its hard enough to sell an optional product in a bad economy... without having someone with a company tag make the public statements this guy has.
Oh and yes this is all just my opinion... I don't claim it as fact .. or if you will... its fact as I view this topic.
I have no interest in getting into a personal slanging match with you about my 'bias'. I just don't care enough tbh.
I will just use ignore foryou and focus on the forum members that want to talk about games and not just other forum members.
3,000,000 X 17%= 501k. That isn't hard to understand. Anyone arguing that isn't true is just arguing to argue.
If you want to argue the game's merits, that's a different thread altogether ("Why I don't like TOR"). But if you need a clearer picture:
Player 1: "I don't like TOR and I'm unsubbing."
Player 2: "I don't like TOR and I'm unsubbing."
Player 3: "I don't like TOR and I'm unsubbing."
Player 4: "I don't like TOR and I'm unsubbing."
Player 5: "I like TOR, I'm going to keep subbing."
It's that simple.
"TO MICHAEL!"
+1
Agreed in entirety.
Nice edit
Lol, thank you for typing that out, I m too lazy to
Hard to see why people like this don t give up on their pointless dribble.
Some critics/haters actually did claim that, that SWTOR would never have that high sales, but whenever they mentioned it it made as little sense as people claiming that SWTOR will have even worse percentage sub losses than as good as all other AAA MMO's.
As for your points why a drop off would happen, sure, it's your opinion but flawed arguments based on the following:
1. the themepark design choice managed WoW to have a huge boost of players who stayed in it for years, even LotrO managed to hold on to the larger part of its playerbase for a very long time. So I don't see why suddenly the design choice would be a problem within months, if it obviously wasn't a problem in other themepark MMO's.
2. 99.9% of the players won't give one single fuck about what George said, and certainly won't take his words into considerating whether to buy a game or not, that's just in your mind and why you maybe wouldn't buy it.
As for the rest, only time can tell I guess.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
No one argued that... I don't get what your actually debating here tbh...
The clear point being made is that 17% retention at 6 months, based on the super casual target market, limited themepark content of game, and the inherent difficulties of producing additional content in the way they have chosen on an ongoing basis is feasible.
You seem to want to make out other people are somehow stupid more then just talk about games tbh, and that's a shame.
This is just a lot of blabla argumenting: fact is that most AAA MMORPG's have had a higher player retention in 6 months and 12 months than the percentages you're picturing for SWTOR, smaller MMO's and far buggier MMO's, that's why your argument sounds nonsensical.
That's what other people are referring to and frankly, I find it dumbfounding and stupefying that you don't realise that fact, that your projections in no way have any correlation with the past of other AAA MMO's.
To me, it sounds simple: you hate/dislike SWTOR and the themepark design model, therefore you ignore any past successes of that model and project figures that are a lot lower than what could be concluded from past trends with other MMO's; because it's your wish, not a solid, well founded extrapolation using former MMO sub trends.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
You said:
Bioware/EA said this:
That's the 17% right there you agreed they will get which is "substantially PROFITABLE", haha!
So even if they drop down to 300K, that puts them at "profitable" now, especially given they would have simply sold their way almost to profitability from game sales alone.
Unknowingly, you've just made the case for SWTOR's success despite all your protesting.
"TO MICHAEL!"
i thought a company wasn't succesful without wow numbers? :P
"The great thing about human language is that it prevents us from sticking to the matter at hand."
- Lewis Thomas
I have repeatedly said, in this very thread no less, that I think SWtoR will be successful financially. I have never 'protested' otherwise.
At no point have I said this 17% will be a 'fail'.
If I have, link it to me here.
in short, you have invested a lot of energy in dispproving a view I simply no not hold.
In fact, every one of your replies to me has been the same... you seem to consistently answer what you WANT to be said rather then whats BEING said. And then you consistently make out people are 'stupid' for disagreeing with you... You have a very laboursome way of 'debating' tbh.
"TO MICHAEL!"
ahh now we are using words like 'suggesting' and 'implying', which are obviously just code for 'you didn't actually say, but I chose to see because it suited the argument I wanted to have'.
Honestly Pop... your making yourself look a bit silly here now
How about we just stick to what actually is being said and the actual points being made... theres enough in that to not to need to go inventing stuff.
So you have a point to make? What, exactly, is it?
We all get it. Vesavius wanted TOR to be something different for HIM. It looks as if it won't be for HIM. So Vesavius thinks because they aren't making the game HE thinks they should make, he's disappointed.
So Vesavius posts little statements here/there that leak out and show what he thinks will happen because Bioware isn't going down the path HE thinks they should have taken with ALLLL that money.. short-term success and long-term failure.
You continue to make posts suggesting the only reason TOR has gotten good reviews is because Bioware has paid off or compensated just about all reviewers of it, except for the tiny few intrepid press critics who dare to agree with you that the game is lacking.
You seem to think there is some groundswell after one month that all the "truth" will come out and the game will suffer, as if enough truth hasn't been leaked already about what's in/not in the game. No bombshells are waiting, my friend. You've heard the worst there is to hear. The rest will be the usual "Log in queue stinks! Bug here, bug there!" posts every game gets.
There are no skeletons in the TOR closet and the "important" things you think should have been in there won't matter to most players.. and I think that's going to irritate you the most after all is said and done. If the press release didn't have one or two gamebreaking news items from even the reviews you respect, then their are none. They simply don't exist.
I hope you don't think I'm putting words in your mouth or a flame. But you wanted me to go on what you said, and there you have it.
"TO MICHAEL!"
A likely scenario is 5 million people play TOR in the first 3 months but after that only 2 million stick around. Result is a lot of servers either merging or closing. That will be seen a failure despite the fact that millions of people are still playing. Rift had to do it and look how much crap gets thrown their way for it?
Its funny because this is a normal aspect of AAA mmos and people still don't get it. You have to have enough room to accommodate all the people that want to take your game for a test run of a month or two. But when obviously there is no such thing as a 100% retention rate, the game still gets bashed when servers have to go away.
It seems all your effort here seems to be trying to prove that I am talking about my opinion... Well.. yes I am. As you are yours... I don't get what else your trying to prove.
Look, I don't mind you quoting me here, like I say the obvious effort you have invested is flattering, but maybe next time provide links the to threads in order to give context. Otherwise it looks like you are pulling quotes out that just suit what (I think) your trying to say. Just a suggestion.
Thank you for the nice summary of my views though
I dont know if we will see a popultaion drop like rift or any other mmo before in this case, i mean, swtor is the 1st real AAA mmo, not like rift, aion, War, aoc, etc etc. And BW can make new content and updates pretty fast, well they already have post-launch content. if the game is good, i dont think that we will see a drop in the population numbers.
Just a bit of perspective (a word the fanboys/trolls may want to look up)
as others have said war had close to that number pre-orders with a lesser ip and lesser advertising
lotro has sold over 5 mil boxes they had to start with the f2p build within what 2 yrs of release
the numbers have likely been released because they sound good and so they get a bit of free advertising out of them, they mean diddly squat in the long temr
There's a difference. Neither WAR nor LotrO had the number of preorders that SWTOR is having for its North American region and boxes alone. On top of that, there's the digital preorders and the European box and digital preorders.
As for player retention, from what I recall, LotrO didn't do bad at all, certainly not the first year.
WAR had issues in that it was an unfinished or unpolished product, with a number of good ideas but not taken the time to polish them as they deserved.
It's hard to determine what's the real success factor in the end, but I think it's a combination of polish, accessibility, catering to various play styles and amount of content. These factors have little to do with sandbox or themepark, both can be immensely satisfying to the people to which playstyle it caters to.
From what it looks like, in amount of content, worldsize and features, SWTOR is easily equal to WoW and LotrO, and it has more 'world' to offer than Rift. Polish, accessibility, I think they're facilitated as well.
From what I see so far, SWTOR will be one of the best in the category of themepark MMORPG's, so the question is 'can an MMORPG within the themepark school of design provide longterm player retention'?
Critics of the themepark MMO design will say 'no, it can't' and say that WoW is a perfect storm. Personally, I doubt that statement: LotrO is a themepark MMO as well and did well for quite a long time, Aion is a themepark MMO too and still has 70-100 active servers worldwide, a million+ subs and is the 2nd MMORPG in terms of revenues if I'm correct.
But we will find out when SWTOR hits the market.
Personally, I'm most curious about the 'magnet' effect: what people tend to forget and ignore, is that often a simple but main reason why people keep playing an MMORPG is because of their friends and acquaintances. WoW had a lot of people returning to it or staying there because you knew that a lot of friends or former guildies were still there. But what if they aren't? What if that MMORPG would be another one? That's the question I think I'll see answered with SWTOR and GW2 hitting the MMO market.
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."
My prediction, based on my _opinion_ (which, for those especially dense, means "I don't have hard facts, and neither do you"), is that SWTOR will be huge initially, with well over 5 millions games sold in first month, at least. May be more, 7 millions? I don't know. I certainly would be one of those.
Most people will burn through game's content and end-game content in 3 months. Since I have no interest in end-game raiding, will not play force-users, and have little hope for pvp, I will likely finish all there is to do there in a month or two. Major content expansion will not be out earlier than a year after the start.
After 3 months the base of subscribers will shrink significantly; no more than 30% of those who bought the game; worst case scenario - 15%.
That still means a very successfull return-on-investments, so I would say the game will be a success. But whining and crying on forums will be meta-epic. Expectations destroyed, end of the Mmorpg as a genre, threats of suicide (oh, please do! Human race needs some culling. Do you know there are 7 billions of us? Just yesterday it was 6, I remember 6th billion child a big deal!)
Lol. This made me want to +1 your post if that would've been possible
... are we really at 7 billion already?? Damn... we need more wars...
Poor planet earth...
The ACTUAL size of MMORPG worlds: a comparison list between MMO's
The ease with which predictions are made on these forums:
Fratman: "I'm saying Spring 2012 at the earliest [for TOR release]. Anyone still clinging to 2011 is deluding themself at this point."