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What my crystal ball tells me ...
Lobotomist
Member EpicPosts: 5,981
Not trying to infuriate fanboys. I quite dig SWTOR. Want play it , for reasons I stated in my review. But i dont think its a bad game people should avoid.
Here is just how i think things will roll out for SWTOR in its first year. Or at least how EA would maximize profits and keep SWTOR alive and thiriving.
Month 1-3 : 1 million subs.
Month 3-6 : 300 thousand subs.
(GW2, D3 launches)
Month 6-9: Expansion launched , subs on slight rise
Month 10-12 : F2P announced , subs on all time low
1 year : SWTOR goes F2P
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Comments
They'll start with over 4 million players in month 1 looking at the vgcharts numbers.
Sub retention might be very low but it has to be beyond horrible to do as bad as you suggest.
We all know that Swtor is not a "beyond horrible" game.
BM'ing this thread for future reference ;-)
My brand new bloggity blog.
Well...your numbers are off right from the start - since month one is the one included with the box - and there will be more than 1 million just in the US alone
"I'm not a racist, but..."
You re not infuriating me at all, but you did make me fall off my chair in laughter.
Stop using crystal balls...try waiting for the future and see what happens instead.
***Raving rabbid sits in his mediation chamber.....and sees a vision of a conquered galaxy!***
All my opinions are just that..opinions. If you like my opinions..coolness.If you dont like my opinion....I really dont care.
Playing: ESO, WOT, Smite, and Marvel Heroes
If the number starts higher than 1 million subs. Than the times will obviously change.
1 year to F2P may be bit haste. I agree.
But I am taking in account GW2 & Diablo 3 launch.
Which I am sure Bioware will combat by releasing expansion.
What happens after first expansion will decide the timing of F2P.
IMHO
LoL. they already sold like 5 mill of preorders, even more after the last weekend. They already have content post launch, and is a MMO without competition, so the population will raise for the next 6 months, why? because the game is good, all you need to do is take a look in the test forums, 97% of the testers is in love of swtor. D3? lol, is not even a MMO, GW2 is B2P not P2P and still it doesnt have the amount of content that we will find swtor, we dont even know about the endgame, even worse if you´ll find a swtor with 6 months of updates, and probably an expansion. swtor f2p, Sure.
5 million pre-orders. And I assume you have some credible resource to base that number on?
And 97% of testers love it.. again, where are you getting this number from?
My gaming blog
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apocalypticism
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Camping
Not going to happen.. guess your stuck with your single players games till GW2 releases.
I'm not sure where or how you're coming up with 4 million based on the vgcharts as the data indicates 900k ish pre-orders as of last week. Now I know that those numbers don't include digital purchases, or at least I don't think they do, and they also don't include pre-orders from european or other countries. I'm not confident that there's 3 million more pre-orders but outside of what's on vgcharts, but I've been wrong before. I'll put on my tinfoil hat though just for fun.
1-3 months: Game launches as the biggest launch in MMO history. First 3 months the game has a very healthy 2.5 million subs.
3 -6 months: The game continues to grow as more people who were on the fence about the game pick it up due to friends playing and media "buzz". Game hits 3.5 million subs.
6 -9 months: Game starts to lose some subs as other games hit the market. Bioware announces the first expansion that will include a more robust space game, new playable race/s, and new pvp/pve content. Expansion will cost $40 and the forums explode in a rage of wtf why do I have to pay for an xpac.
9-12 months: Game's first expansion is released to critical acclaim. Word of mouth and media buzz continue to drive sales/sub numbers for the game. The game's population continues to grow after a few months of flat sales. Xpac hits around Christmas, the game adds another 1 million subs.
After 12 months the game sits at around 4 million active subscribers, many forum trolls and complainers, the threadnaughting is of epic proportions as people continue to look for the next 'big thing'.
My crystal ball tells me- There are enough Star Wars fans out there alone to keep this game profitable. It also hints that enough people are bored with WoW and fantasy based games in general that ToR will profit.
But my crystal ball was dropped and has a crack in it, so it may not be accurate at all now =(
I am not sure that ftp will ever become part of the picture , at least I hope it doesn't.
Well there is a poll on the Beta forums right now asking if you will buy SWTOR
94% voted yes so far.
And regarding the OP - This one is too good to not bookmark for future comedy.
But probably not anything you just said.
Here's my crystal ball prediction.
Month 1: Over 4 million box sales
Month 2: World domination. All citizens of all countries are required by their local governments to play the game. Except Australia.
Month 3: Movement to organize all the countries of the world into a single united government under EA/BW's direct supervision. The new ruling body calls themselves the Jedi Council. Except Australia.
Month 4: Nuke Australia.
If the number starts higher than 1 million subs. Than the times will obviously change.
1 year to F2P may be bit haste. I agree.
But I am taking in account GW2 & Diablo 3 launch.
Which I am sure Bioware will combat by releasing expansion.
What happens after first expansion will decide the timing of F2P.
IMHO
I just don't think the game would work as F2P (1) and (2) I don't think Lucas Arts would let it happen. They would shut it down rather than have it go F2P.
I can see this game making most of the money they spent on development back in pre-orders alone. With that being the case, they could run the game with a 'small' number of subscriptions (300,000 or so).
But still, it'll be all or nothing. The game won't go F2P, if it goes belly up, they'll shut it down.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
My crystal ball tells me that Mila Kunis will greet me at the door tonight (wearing only an apron and a smile) and serve me a delicious steak dinner...
...and...what were we talking about again?
Somehow this crystal ball thing never seems to work out on the internet.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
My crytal ball tells me nothing
what channel you tuned into?
I think people makes these posts so that in 12 months they can go 'WEEEEELLLLL i told you so'...
game is not designed to be F2P.. where would they be able to fit in MC?
Some people....
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/ab/Norsefire-logo.png
Considering WAR still isnt F2P (apart from unlimited Trial) and UO is fully P2P plus lucarts trusting that its getting its royalties...I highly doubt that.
Lucarts pulled the licence from SOE instead of letting SWG go F2P after there was no profits to be had anymore.
Will buy it =/= loving the game
Some might buy it just because they are bored of other MMORPGS.
Some because it is SW.
It does not mean that 94% they will stick with the game. It is natural to want to buy a game after a short open beta, if the game is good. Still does not mean the game will retain subscribers.
My gaming blog
Funny you should say that, because this exact thing happened to me last night. Only it wasnt Mila it was my grandpa. And he wasn't wearing an apron. And it wasn't steak it was...
Well, basically the exact same thing.
Hehe. Poll on SWTOR beta forums ?
Anyway.
Please do bookmark this post.
It will be a laugh to read it year from now. No mater what happens :P
That was good, made me LOL
Wow your crystal ball is broken since they have almost 1 million preorders now, not including digital or European orders according the vgzchart. Do some research before you post stuff like this, heck there was even a link on the forums about the recent preorder numbers. I doubt GW2 will have much of an effect since it is B2P and people can play both, and some people may not even buy GW2 (like me) or will play both. I estimate about 2.5 million at launch.
In Bioware we trust!
My crystal ball says you should keep your day job.