the game is dropping subbscriptions, that is what's this graph shows us... nothing else, 50000 hours is large enough portion to determing whether its growing or dropping. By tomorrow that graph is going to peak at around 60000 hours down from 70000 last weekend among xfire users, and since it's large enough portion, (no one can say xfire users are hardcore or all haters), that is around 15% drop +/- 5% aproximation, that that sure is a disaster for a newly released game. First month, the game should be skyrocking in it's sales, or as a succesful mmo, should show a steady grow... subscribtion drop after first month is a normal acurance for new mmo's I would say, and they are failing, and since this game actually invested so much money, and people gave it so much hype, this is a failure already, by the end of 6th month, it's gonna be ghost towns, server merges etc...
Originally posted by Vrika
It might be possible to see a trend by comparing SWTOR to another game, like WoW:
DATE
WOW
SWTOR
SWTOR/WOW
Dec 24th
79k hours
62k hours
78%
Dec 31st
72k hours
63k hours
88%
Jan 7th
102k hours
73k hours
72%
Jan 14th
101k hours
68k hours
67%
Jan 21th
96k hours
56k hours
58%
So, can we see trend here for WoW is ~ - 5% at the same level since new year, and SWTOR is down by 25?
the game is dropping subbscriptions, that is what's this graph shows us...
I stopped reading there because it's vastly apparent that you ignored every fact that has been stated about these graphs just so you could perpetuate your own agenda.
Facts remain:
X-fire doesn't show subscriptions.
X-fire is only useful for trends within X-fire.
SWTORarena graphs doesn't show subscriptions.
SWTORarena graphs doesn't show population statistics.
SWTORarena graphs only show server loads over time.
the game is dropping subbscriptions, that is what's this graph shows us...
I stopped reading there because it's vastly apparent that you ignored every fact that has been stated about these graphs just so you could perpetuate your own agenda.
Well if you wouldn't have stopped reading, maybe you would post more reasonable asnwer, because I can stop reading at any poing of anyone's text, and take any words out of context, and make any sense I like...
I just love this debate, it shows just how silly and in denial some people are. With that said.
I have been using xfire as a means to measure the health on an MMO in the NA and EU markets since the time of AC2. Since that time not one MMO has performed any differently - health wise - compared to what xfire was showing us. Not one - ever. If one has - point it out. Show us an MMO that has performed differently than what xfire has shown us - just one.
If you can post just one - I'll never post on an xfire thread or bring it up on these boards ever again. ^_^
Well, I'm not a believer in Xfire but since some of you guys are, you might find this interesting. (I do not take credit for the image)
I looked through some other MMOs on Xfire as well and I noticed that same high to low, more extreme than the typical week to weekend plotting in their graph histories.
If I were a believer in Xfire trending, I'd say ALL MMOs are dieing, not just SWTOR.
Edit: I tracked down where I first saw that image, credit goes to Sukiyaki
We really need separate forums for every newly launched game. There can be the anti-<MMO> one and there can be the 'what general discussion should be' one. All the lamenting can happen together where each can find solace in like minded can't-move-on-ers leaving the rest of us to actually move forward and discuss meaningful and relevant topics.
Well, I'm not a believer in Xfire but since some of you guys are, you might find this interesting. (I do not take credit for the image)
I looked through some other MMOs on Xfire as well and I noticed that same high to low, more extreme than the typical week to weekend plotting in their graph histories.
If I were a believer in Xfire trending, I'd say ALL MMOs are dieing, not just SWTOR.
Edit: I tracked down where I first saw that image, credit goes to Sukiyaki
Probably are. People are getting tired of WoW, all the recent MMO's have been mediocre at best, plus there are games like Skyrim, LoL and MW and a variety of others.
Why? The game is a shallow Themepark and there are a lot of us who are tired of lack of innovation in the genre. A failure on SW:TOR would give a signal to the industry that they cannot copy paste game mechanics and need to start thinking outside of the box.
Thank you that's what i and others like me have been saying all along. It gets tiresome to hear that you are somehow a hater or a troll just because you are pointing out what should be the obvious about what these gaming companies are doing. Why do we care? We have friends and family who play these games and when they are taken for their money like this it's a big big problem. It's immoral for EA/LA/BW to be charging a monthly fee for a game that should have been B2P in the first place at it's current state. It's ridiculous to claim otherwise.
It had a serious dip on the 18th (34322) but it looks like it's recovering rather nicely. Jan 14: 67744 and Jan 21: 55992. That's almost 83%, if that were a good indication of retention for the first month then all hail EA/BW. That would look great.
Of course there are some people that have already cancelled and still have access to the game, but it doesn't look like TOR is dead just yet.
that's about the same WAR had the first month. they peaked at 800k subscribers and even with those numbers were in the red and never managed to recover the development costs on that game....it cost 1/4 of SWTOR
the game is dropping subbscriptions, that is what's this graph shows us... nothing else, 50000 hours is large enough portion to determing whether its growing or dropping. By tomorrow that graph is going to peak at around 60000 hours down from 70000 last weekend among xfire users, and since it's large enough portion, (no one can say xfire users are hardcore or all haters), that is around 15% drop +/- 5% aproximation, that that sure is a disaster for a newly released game. First month, the game should be skyrocking in it's sales, or as a succesful mmo, should show a steady grow... subscribtion drop after first month is a normal acurance for new mmo's I would say, and they are failing, and since this game actually invested so much money, and people gave it so much hype, this is a failure already, by the end of 6th month, it's gonna be ghost towns, server merges etc...
Originally posted by Vrika
It might be possible to see a trend by comparing SWTOR to another game, like WoW:
DATE
WOW
SWTOR
SWTOR/WOW
Dec 24th
79k hours
62k hours
78%
Dec 31st
72k hours
63k hours
88%
Jan 7th
102k hours
73k hours
72%
Jan 14th
101k hours
68k hours
67%
Jan 21th
96k hours
56k hours
58%
So, can we see trend here for WoW is ~ - 5% at the same level since new year, and SWTOR is down by 25?
Now what would that mean?
Actually, those are player hours. Any person using his brains properly knows that people play a newly launched MMO a hell of a lot more hours than an MMO that has been around a while, so of course the player hours will be a lot higher in the first weeks.
That's simple, easy to understand logic.
For example, in the first week, 10k Xfire TOR players played 75k hours, an average of 7.5 hours, against 20k WoW players that played 90k hours, an average of 4.5 hours. That seriously pumps up the player hours when TOR players play 1.5-2 times as many hours as players of other games.
As for player numbers, TOR seems to be at the number it had in the first week after its launch, with so far a 12-13% loss compared to last week due to the ending of the free month.
Originally posted by Yamota Why? The game is a shallow Themepark and there are a lot of us who are tired of lack of innovation in the genre. A failure on SW:TOR would give a signal to the industry that they cannot copy paste game mechanics and need to start thinking outside of the box.
Thank you that's what i and others like me have been saying all along. It gets tiresome to hear that you are somehow a hater or a troll just because you are pointing out what should be the obvious about what these gaming companies are doing. Why do we care? We have friends and family who play these games and when they are taken for their money like this it's a big big problem. It's immoral for EA/LA/BW to be charging a monthly fee for a game that should have been B2P in the first place at it's current state. It's ridiculous to claim otherwise.
It's a simple thing of supply and demand: people like for example you might abhor current themepark MMO's because they don't give you any enjoyment or fun, just like some people have hated WoW since I think 2007. Yet if millions of people are in those same years playing games like WoW and LotrO and so on and are having fun in it enough to keep subbing, then it doesn't matter much that you despise those games and want something else, because to those people it provided the entertainment they want.
Originally posted by Teala
I just love this debate, it shows just how silly and in denial some people are. With that said. I have been using xfire as a means to measure the health on an MMO in the NA and EU markets since the time of AC2. Since that time not one MMO has performed any differently - health wise - compared to what xfire was showing us. Not one - ever. If one has - point it out. Show us an MMO that has performed differently than what xfire has shown us - just one. If you can post just one - I'll never post on an xfire thread or bring it up on these boards ever again. ^_^
Personally, I think that Xfire can indicate general trends within a game. It's no use to compare numbers of 1 game to another, for obvious reasons, but for trends it can be a rough indication, provided that some things are kept in mind: player hours is bad to use, for the simple reason that player hours vary too much. Player numbers is more reliable.
For example: the number of Xfire TOR players last Friday was roughly about the same as the number of TOR players in Xfire the Friday 4 weeks ago. However, the number of hours last Friday was 40k total, against 70k the Friday 4 weeks ago.
Another thing to keep in mind: the total number of Xfire users has decreased over the years, leading to a downward trend in the played hours in practically all games in Xfire. Where for example 10-11 million WoW players equaled 450k Xfire hours a couple of years ago, now you'll see numbers of 100k. Or where a few years ago, 300k EVE subs equaled 4.5k Xfire users, now 300-350k Eve subs equal 1.2k Xfire users.
Ignore such influences, and Xfire loses even the limited value that it can offer for analysis. I don't know if this is the example that you were looking for, but if people had purely looked at the Xfire figures of those games, they would have thought that both WoW and EVE had suffered a major loss, with WoW only 25% of its player base left and EVE, instead of growth, having suffered 70% loss of its players. No need to tell that such conclusions using Xfire are that much off base that they become meaningless.
the game is dropping subbscriptions, that is what's this graph shows us...
I stopped reading there because it's vastly apparent that you ignored every fact that has been stated about these graphs just so you could perpetuate your own agenda.
Well if you wouldn't have stopped reading, maybe you would post more reasonable asnwer, because I can stop reading at any poing of anyone's text, and take any words out of context, and make any sense I like...
My answer was far more reasonable than his statement which consisted of him ignoring facts. Also, I will point out that you removed part of my post that showed the facts that he ignored.
the game is dropping subbscriptions, that is what's this graph shows us...
I stopped reading there because it's vastly apparent that you ignored every fact that has been stated about these graphs just so you could perpetuate your own agenda.
Well if you wouldn't have stopped reading, maybe you would post more reasonable asnwer, because I can stop reading at any poing of anyone's text, and take any words out of context, and make any sense I like...
My answer was far more reasonable than his statement which consisted of him ignoring facts. Also, I will point out that you removed part of my post that showed the facts that he ignored.
That is actually what you did, you took my first couple of words out of 100... And you don't like that I did the same, that is wierd.
And on the part where your statements are more reasonable, to me statistics are more reasonable than your words. And I repeat, 50000 hours played is large enough portion of total hours played, to determine a general trend. This maybe due to the fact that people play game more at the release, but for game to grow in subscribtions, new people have to buy it, and it apears that more people are dropping game play than getting the game and starting it from zero and playing it all the time they have...
Someone asked for a game where Xfire numbers didn't correlate to what happenend in the game, that game was STO. They changed something in the launcher in one patch that prevented xfire from accurately measuring activity. Showed a 90% drop from one day to the next i believe.
STO also was in the situation that it was one of the first MMOs that was sold on the steam platform which also provides usage statistics. Prior to that bug the trends on xfire and steam closely correlated each other. I see no reason to assume that people that use steam of xfire are some vastly different kind of humans that enjoy poking their eyeballs with spoons or something. These tools already have a filtering metric, which being that only people who bought the game show up on them, which is more than you can say about this forum ...
That being said, looking at my server, the game is very healthy and i see no decline. 116 people on balmorra yesterday evening, trade network full of stuff and no massive complaints in fleet general chat like those other failed games had. General forums are also rather civil apart from very specific(and valid) complaints.
Well, I'm not a believer in Xfire but since some of you guys are, you might find this interesting. (I do not take credit for the image)
I looked through some other MMOs on Xfire as well and I noticed that same high to low, more extreme than the typical week to weekend plotting in their graph histories.
If I were a believer in Xfire trending, I'd say ALL MMOs are dieing, not just SWTOR.
Edit: I tracked down where I first saw that image, credit goes to Sukiyaki
Probably are. People are getting tired of WoW, all the recent MMO's have been mediocre at best, plus there are games like Skyrim, LoL and MW and a variety of others.
After 7 years its only natural ( I dont think my grandchildren will play WoW 1.0 ) until they release their next game and take the whole market away again which will be again WoW 2.0 with whatever skin they decide to put on.
I wouldnt cross my fingers that the market will ever change, sandbox or theme park every MMO release has been this way hehe, in all I can see investment simply being dropped all together from MMOs which is the most likely scenarios.
SWTOR is still a good game in my books as is WoW ( which I still play ), but I dont expect EA ever to make another MMO, then after TSW fails I also dont expect funcom to make any other MMO tbh.
I wouldnt be surprised that after Blizzard makes their last MMO we are likely going to see the MMORPG popularity back down to the 1mil population and ppl just forsaking this genre alltogether, MMORPG has only been a buzzword these last few years cause of WoW once that is gone or blizzard MMORPGs are gone it will be back at the old days of mediocre unfinished products and ppl will pay for it. The whole promise the world and deliver nothing.
the game is dropping subbscriptions, that is what's this graph shows us...
I stopped reading there because it's vastly apparent that you ignored every fact that has been stated about these graphs just so you could perpetuate your own agenda.
Well if you wouldn't have stopped reading, maybe you would post more reasonable asnwer, because I can stop reading at any poing of anyone's text, and take any words out of context, and make any sense I like...
My answer was far more reasonable than his statement which consisted of him ignoring facts. Also, I will point out that you removed part of my post that showed the facts that he ignored.
That is actually what you did, you took my first couple of words out of 100... And you don't like that I did the same, that is wierd.
And on the part where your statements are more reasonable, to me statistics are more reasonable than your words. And I repeat, 50000 hours played is large enough portion of total hours played, to determine a general trend. This maybe due to the fact that people play game more at the release, but for game to grow in subscribtions, new people have to buy it, and it apears that more people are dropping game play than getting the game and starting it from zero and playing it all the time they have...
pardon for my poor english.
Again, hours played does not measure subscription numbers. A fact that I stated that you removed.
the game is dropping subbscriptions, that is what's this graph shows us...
I stopped reading there because it's vastly apparent that you ignored every fact that has been stated about these graphs just so you could perpetuate your own agenda.
Well if you wouldn't have stopped reading, maybe you would post more reasonable asnwer, because I can stop reading at any poing of anyone's text, and take any words out of context, and make any sense I like...
My answer was far more reasonable than his statement which consisted of him ignoring facts. Also, I will point out that you removed part of my post that showed the facts that he ignored.
That is actually what you did, you took my first couple of words out of 100... And you don't like that I did the same, that is wierd.
And on the part where your statements are more reasonable, to me statistics are more reasonable than your words. And I repeat, 50000 hours played is large enough portion of total hours played, to determine a general trend. This maybe due to the fact that people play game more at the release, but for game to grow in subscribtions, new people have to buy it, and it apears that more people are dropping game play than getting the game and starting it from zero and playing it all the time they have...
pardon for my poor english.
Again, hours played does not measure subscription numbers. A fact that I stated that you removed.
The variable "hours played" is however correlated to variable "subscription numbers". Which is a natural consequence of the fact that those two variables are not independent.
No real change during the christmas holidays so it seems this game has reached its peak which is about the same like Aion had during its release. No the question is how it will retain its subscribers. My guess is that same day next month it will have dropped 10-20%.
the game is dropping subbscriptions, that is what's this graph shows us...
I stopped reading there because it's vastly apparent that you ignored every fact that has been stated about these graphs just so you could perpetuate your own agenda.
Well if you wouldn't have stopped reading, maybe you would post more reasonable asnwer, because I can stop reading at any poing of anyone's text, and take any words out of context, and make any sense I like...
My answer was far more reasonable than his statement which consisted of him ignoring facts. Also, I will point out that you removed part of my post that showed the facts that he ignored.
That is actually what you did, you took my first couple of words out of 100... And you don't like that I did the same, that is wierd.
And on the part where your statements are more reasonable, to me statistics are more reasonable than your words. And I repeat, 50000 hours played is large enough portion of total hours played, to determine a general trend. This maybe due to the fact that people play game more at the release, but for game to grow in subscribtions, new people have to buy it, and it apears that more people are dropping game play than getting the game and starting it from zero and playing it all the time they have...
pardon for my poor english.
Again, hours played does not measure subscription numbers. A fact that I stated that you removed.
The variable "hours played" is however correlated to variable "subscription numbers". Which is a natural consequence of the fact that those two variables are not independent.
That's irrelevant. Mainly because many people could be playing a TON of hours while some might not be playing much at all. Or, people could be playing average amounts during the time frame. As you stated, it's variable. Which means that you, nor anyone else knows how many hours each person is playing at any point in time as it's completely random. Thus, I stand by my factual statement, hours played does not measure subscription numbers.
the game is dropping subbscriptions, that is what's this graph shows us...
I stopped reading there because it's vastly apparent that you ignored every fact that has been stated about these graphs just so you could perpetuate your own agenda.
Well if you wouldn't have stopped reading, maybe you would post more reasonable asnwer, because I can stop reading at any poing of anyone's text, and take any words out of context, and make any sense I like...
My answer was far more reasonable than his statement which consisted of him ignoring facts. Also, I will point out that you removed part of my post that showed the facts that he ignored.
That is actually what you did, you took my first couple of words out of 100... And you don't like that I did the same, that is wierd.
And on the part where your statements are more reasonable, to me statistics are more reasonable than your words. And I repeat, 50000 hours played is large enough portion of total hours played, to determine a general trend. This maybe due to the fact that people play game more at the release, but for game to grow in subscribtions, new people have to buy it, and it apears that more people are dropping game play than getting the game and starting it from zero and playing it all the time they have...
pardon for my poor english.
Again, hours played does not measure subscription numbers. A fact that I stated that you removed.
That certainly is not a fact, that is your opinion. Facts are:
Hours xfire users played dropped by 10000 in one week;
More servers acording to swtorarena are going light;
People are constantly complaining about the game;
And those are rocksolid facts.
I mean If it was only xfire...But these facts add up to one trend. I would agree with you, if the game was amazing, everyone was prasing it, all servers were going heavy at all times, and they were adding more servers constantly, and xfire charts were indicating hours played dropping, your words would have made much more sense. {mod edit}
the game is dropping subbscriptions, that is what's this graph shows us...
I stopped reading there because it's vastly apparent that you ignored every fact that has been stated about these graphs just so you could perpetuate your own agenda.
Well if you wouldn't have stopped reading, maybe you would post more reasonable asnwer, because I can stop reading at any poing of anyone's text, and take any words out of context, and make any sense I like...
My answer was far more reasonable than his statement which consisted of him ignoring facts. Also, I will point out that you removed part of my post that showed the facts that he ignored.
That is actually what you did, you took my first couple of words out of 100... And you don't like that I did the same, that is wierd.
And on the part where your statements are more reasonable, to me statistics are more reasonable than your words. And I repeat, 50000 hours played is large enough portion of total hours played, to determine a general trend. This maybe due to the fact that people play game more at the release, but for game to grow in subscribtions, new people have to buy it, and it apears that more people are dropping game play than getting the game and starting it from zero and playing it all the time they have...
pardon for my poor english.
Again, hours played does not measure subscription numbers. A fact that I stated that you removed.
The variable "hours played" is however correlated to variable "subscription numbers". Which is a natural consequence of the fact that those two variables are not independent.
That's irrelevant. Mainly because many people could be playing a TON of hours while some might not be playing much at all. Or, people could be playing average amounts during the time frame. As you stated, it's variable. Which means that you, nor anyone else knows how many hours each person is playing at any point in time as it's completely random. Thus, I stand by my factual statement, hours played does not measure subscription numbers.
"Hours played does not measure subscription numbers" is an extremely vague statement, so it would be hard for a person to deduce whether or not it is factually true. Do you mean " # hours played, does not give any information which can help us estimate the subscription numbers"? Do you mean " #subscriptions is not a function that only depends on # hours played"? What do you mean? Specify .
the game is dropping subbscriptions, that is what's this graph shows us...
I stopped reading there because it's vastly apparent that you ignored every fact that has been stated about these graphs just so you could perpetuate your own agenda.
Well if you wouldn't have stopped reading, maybe you would post more reasonable asnwer, because I can stop reading at any poing of anyone's text, and take any words out of context, and make any sense I like...
My answer was far more reasonable than his statement which consisted of him ignoring facts. Also, I will point out that you removed part of my post that showed the facts that he ignored.
That is actually what you did, you took my first couple of words out of 100... And you don't like that I did the same, that is wierd.
And on the part where your statements are more reasonable, to me statistics are more reasonable than your words. And I repeat, 50000 hours played is large enough portion of total hours played, to determine a general trend. This maybe due to the fact that people play game more at the release, but for game to grow in subscribtions, new people have to buy it, and it apears that more people are dropping game play than getting the game and starting it from zero and playing it all the time they have...
pardon for my poor english.
Again, hours played does not measure subscription numbers. A fact that I stated that you removed.
The variable "hours played" is however correlated to variable "subscription numbers". Which is a natural consequence of the fact that those two variables are not independent.
That's irrelevant. Mainly because many people could be playing a TON of hours while some might not be playing much at all. Or, people could be playing average amounts during the time frame. As you stated, it's variable. Which means that you, nor anyone else knows how many hours each person is playing at any point in time as it's completely random. Thus, I stand by my factual statement, hours played does not measure subscription numbers.
"Hours played does not measure subscription numbers" is an extremely vague statement, so it would be hard for a person to deduce whether or not it is factually true. Do you mean " # hours played, does not give any information which can help us estimate the subscription numbers"? Do you mean " #subscriptions is not a function that only depends on # hours played"? What do you mean? Specify .
I must say he has got a point, I have played for a lot of hours during the first couple of weeks, cause I had them off, my hours at the moment are at least down by 50% if not more, that doesnt really mean I have stopped playing. I dont even consider myself hardcore or anything, and I know that a lot of ppl are like this, they play a lot/take time off during the first weeks just to be there at headstart and then their play time is cut in more than half ( reminds me of WoW xpac releases where I usually take time off ).
So yeah he has got a point, I think its safe to assume lots of ppl take time off work to play extended hours at and near launch and then that numbers gets cut off by a lot. I also assume that someone that uses xfire is likely to be a more hardcore gamer than someone who doesnt ( I cant see anyone in my family that isnt computer savy but play WoW to install a random application they have no clue how it works they even sometimes ask me stuff about facebook ) which explain the sudden drop in hours played.
I must say he has got a point, I have played for a lot of hours during the first couple of weeks, cause I had them off, my hours at the moment are at least down by 50% if not more, that doesnt really mean I have stopped playing. I dont even consider myself hardcore or anything, and I know that a lot of ppl are like this, they play a lot/take time off during the first weeks just to be there at headstart and then their play time is cut in more than half ( reminds me of WoW xpac releases where I usually take time off ).
So yeah he has got a point, I think its safe to assume lots of ppl take time off work to play extended hours at and near launch and then that numbers gets cut off by a lot. I also assume that someone that uses xfire is likely to be a more hardcore gamer than someone who doesnt ( I cant see anyone in my family that isnt computer savy but play WoW to install a random application they have no clue how it works they even sometimes ask me stuff about facebook ) which explain the sudden drop in hours played.
But the game is still new, and for the game to grow, new people have to start playing it, and the total hours played would balance out people who play at alot and then drop their time played, but not subscribtion? So we got atleast one fact that we all consider to be true, the game has hit it's peak. And now to determine is it stable, and subscribtions stay as they are, or they are dropping. Lets see facts, that say the game is stable at it's subscribtion number.
I must say he has got a point, I have played for a lot of hours during the first couple of weeks, cause I had them off, my hours at the moment are at least down by 50% if not more, that doesnt really mean I have stopped playing. I dont even consider myself hardcore or anything, and I know that a lot of ppl are like this, they play a lot/take time off during the first weeks just to be there at headstart and then their play time is cut in more than half ( reminds me of WoW xpac releases where I usually take time off ).
So yeah he has got a point, I think its safe to assume lots of ppl take time off work to play extended hours at and near launch and then that numbers gets cut off by a lot. I also assume that someone that uses xfire is likely to be a more hardcore gamer than someone who doesnt ( I cant see anyone in my family that isnt computer savy but play WoW to install a random application they have no clue how it works they even sometimes ask me stuff about facebook ) which explain the sudden drop in hours played.
But the game is still new, and for the game to grow, new people have to start playing it, and the total hours played would balance out people who play at alot and then drop their time played, but not subscribtion? So we got atleast one fact that we all consider to be true, the game has hit it's peak. And now to determine is it stable, and subscribtions stay as they are, or they are dropping. Lets see facts, that say the game is stable at it's subscribtion number.
No your assumption is wrong, any hardcore players ( the target of xfire ) would already be there at launch, so you are mesuring the wrong crowd which xfire doesnt cater to, sure more ppl will join to balance out the hours but any hardcore players will play from the start, so is the nature of the beast that they will want to play at launch. I know ppl who want to buy when its cheaper they arent hardcore they are very very casual players that do not need or want anything to do with xfire.
Like I said even tho you might get the odd hardcore player who uses xfire starting afterwards, it will be a small blip on the map, the real bulk of the hardcore players have already played their bulk/time off work hours and why you get the 50% or more cut off in hours.
What that means is, you dont know if the subs have gone up or down based on that, you can say that hardcore players have slow down their play time sure, but that was always gonna be the case, its clear they are copying the WoW model which doesnt cater specifically to hardcore players but instead feeds on the much much larger market of casual players who have not reached the end game and who are not rushing to it. For every 10h a day drop in play time from a hardcore players you can have 5 casual players subscribing that play 1h a day. You dont know if this and xfire wont show you this cause it doesnt cater to that crowd.
I must say he has got a point, I have played for a lot of hours during the first couple of weeks, cause I had them off, my hours at the moment are at least down by 50% if not more, that doesnt really mean I have stopped playing. I dont even consider myself hardcore or anything, and I know that a lot of ppl are like this, they play a lot/take time off during the first weeks just to be there at headstart and then their play time is cut in more than half ( reminds me of WoW xpac releases where I usually take time off ).
So yeah he has got a point, I think its safe to assume lots of ppl take time off work to play extended hours at and near launch and then that numbers gets cut off by a lot. I also assume that someone that uses xfire is likely to be a more hardcore gamer than someone who doesnt ( I cant see anyone in my family that isnt computer savy but play WoW to install a random application they have no clue how it works they even sometimes ask me stuff about facebook ) which explain the sudden drop in hours played.
But the game is still new, and for the game to grow, new people have to start playing it, and the total hours played would balance out people who play at alot and then drop their time played, but not subscribtion? So we got atleast one fact that we all consider to be true, the game has hit it's peak. And now to determine is it stable, and subscribtions stay as they are, or they are dropping. Lets see facts, that say the game is stable at it's subscribtion number.
No your assumption is wrong, any hardcore players ( the target of xfire ) would already be there at launch, so you are mesuring the wrong crowd which xfire doesnt cater to, sure more ppl will join to balance out the hours but any hardcore players will play from the start, so is the nature of the beast that they will want to play at launch. I know ppl who want to buy when its cheaper they arent hardcore they are very very casual players that do not need or want anything to do with xfire.
Like I said even tho you might get the odd hardcore player who uses xfire starting afterwards, it will be a small blip on the map, the real bulk of the hardcore players have already played their bulk/time off work hours and why you get the 50% or more cut off in hours.
I can't agree with you on the fact that majority of hardcore gamers are buying the games only at launch, and i don't agree that xfire players are hardcore. Those are not facts, those are assumptions, same as mine, so lets dismiss the assumptions and once again stick to the facts...
I bet when they start merging servers, you are going to say, that it's not subscribtion drop, it's people who played the game grew up a little, and have families, so they play less, hence servers are less loaded, when EA issues real subs numbers, and they are dropping you are going to say, well all those people dropped subscribtions right after the report, since, it was new content patch on the horrison, so they decided to wait till the patch, when the game goes f2p or shuts down to couple of servers you would say, hey it's just hollydays soon, everyone is spending the time with friends, so they all stopped playing at the same time, but soon they will come back, and even if EA shuts down the game completely, you would say it was conspiracy, and it's all blizzard harckers and payed off haters.
You know, sometimes you just have to look at the facts and say, well yea, the game is in a bad shape, subs are dropping, but there a slight chance that things will work out...
Comments
It might be possible to see a trend by comparing SWTOR to another game, like WoW:
DATE
WOW
SWTOR
SWTOR/WOW
Dec 24th
79k hours
62k hours
78%
Dec 31st
72k hours
63k hours
88%
Jan 7th
102k hours
73k hours
72%
Jan 14th
101k hours
68k hours
67%
Jan 21th
96k hours
56k hours
58%
the game is dropping subbscriptions, that is what's this graph shows us... nothing else, 50000 hours is large enough portion to determing whether its growing or dropping. By tomorrow that graph is going to peak at around 60000 hours down from 70000 last weekend among xfire users, and since it's large enough portion, (no one can say xfire users are hardcore or all haters), that is around 15% drop +/- 5% aproximation, that that sure is a disaster for a newly released game. First month, the game should be skyrocking in it's sales, or as a succesful mmo, should show a steady grow... subscribtion drop after first month is a normal acurance for new mmo's I would say, and they are failing, and since this game actually invested so much money, and people gave it so much hype, this is a failure already, by the end of 6th month, it's gonna be ghost towns, server merges etc...
So, can we see trend here for WoW is ~ - 5% at the same level since new year, and SWTOR is down by 25?
Now what would that mean?
I stopped reading there because it's vastly apparent that you ignored every fact that has been stated about these graphs just so you could perpetuate your own agenda.
Facts remain:
X-fire doesn't show subscriptions.
X-fire is only useful for trends within X-fire.
SWTORarena graphs doesn't show subscriptions.
SWTORarena graphs doesn't show population statistics.
SWTORarena graphs only show server loads over time.
Well if you wouldn't have stopped reading, maybe you would post more reasonable asnwer, because I can stop reading at any poing of anyone's text, and take any words out of context, and make any sense I like...
I just love this debate, it shows just how silly and in denial some people are. With that said.
I have been using xfire as a means to measure the health on an MMO in the NA and EU markets since the time of AC2. Since that time not one MMO has performed any differently - health wise - compared to what xfire was showing us. Not one - ever. If one has - point it out. Show us an MMO that has performed differently than what xfire has shown us - just one.
If you can post just one - I'll never post on an xfire thread or bring it up on these boards ever again. ^_^
Well, I'm not a believer in Xfire but since some of you guys are, you might find this interesting. (I do not take credit for the image)
I looked through some other MMOs on Xfire as well and I noticed that same high to low, more extreme than the typical week to weekend plotting in their graph histories.
If I were a believer in Xfire trending, I'd say ALL MMOs are dieing, not just SWTOR.
Edit: I tracked down where I first saw that image, credit goes to Sukiyaki
We really need separate forums for every newly launched game. There can be the anti-<MMO> one and there can be the 'what general discussion should be' one. All the lamenting can happen together where each can find solace in like minded can't-move-on-ers leaving the rest of us to actually move forward and discuss meaningful and relevant topics.
Probably are. People are getting tired of WoW, all the recent MMO's have been mediocre at best, plus there are games like Skyrim, LoL and MW and a variety of others.
Thank you that's what i and others like me have been saying all along. It gets tiresome to hear that you are somehow a hater or a troll just because you are pointing out what should be the obvious about what these gaming companies are doing. Why do we care? We have friends and family who play these games and when they are taken for their money like this it's a big big problem. It's immoral for EA/LA/BW to be charging a monthly fee for a game that should have been B2P in the first place at it's current state. It's ridiculous to claim otherwise.
that's about the same WAR had the first month. they peaked at 800k subscribers and even with those numbers were in the red and never managed to recover the development costs on that game....it cost 1/4 of SWTOR
I review lots of indie games and MMORPGs
So, can we see trend here for WoW is ~ - 5% at the same level since new year, and SWTOR is down by 25?
Now what would that mean?
Thank you that's what i and others like me have been saying all along. It gets tiresome to hear that you are somehow a hater or a troll just because you are pointing out what should be the obvious about what these gaming companies are doing. Why do we care? We have friends and family who play these games and when they are taken for their money like this it's a big big problem. It's immoral for EA/LA/BW to be charging a monthly fee for a game that should have been B2P in the first place at it's current state. It's ridiculous to claim otherwise.
My answer was far more reasonable than his statement which consisted of him ignoring facts. Also, I will point out that you removed part of my post that showed the facts that he ignored.
That is actually what you did, you took my first couple of words out of 100... And you don't like that I did the same, that is wierd.
And on the part where your statements are more reasonable, to me statistics are more reasonable than your words. And I repeat, 50000 hours played is large enough portion of total hours played, to determine a general trend. This maybe due to the fact that people play game more at the release, but for game to grow in subscribtions, new people have to buy it, and it apears that more people are dropping game play than getting the game and starting it from zero and playing it all the time they have...
pardon for my poor english.
Someone asked for a game where Xfire numbers didn't correlate to what happenend in the game, that game was STO. They changed something in the launcher in one patch that prevented xfire from accurately measuring activity. Showed a 90% drop from one day to the next i believe.
STO also was in the situation that it was one of the first MMOs that was sold on the steam platform which also provides usage statistics. Prior to that bug the trends on xfire and steam closely correlated each other. I see no reason to assume that people that use steam of xfire are some vastly different kind of humans that enjoy poking their eyeballs with spoons or something. These tools already have a filtering metric, which being that only people who bought the game show up on them, which is more than you can say about this forum ...
That being said, looking at my server, the game is very healthy and i see no decline. 116 people on balmorra yesterday evening, trade network full of stuff and no massive complaints in fleet general chat like those other failed games had. General forums are also rather civil apart from very specific(and valid) complaints.
After 7 years its only natural ( I dont think my grandchildren will play WoW 1.0 ) until they release their next game and take the whole market away again which will be again WoW 2.0 with whatever skin they decide to put on.
I wouldnt cross my fingers that the market will ever change, sandbox or theme park every MMO release has been this way hehe, in all I can see investment simply being dropped all together from MMOs which is the most likely scenarios.
SWTOR is still a good game in my books as is WoW ( which I still play ), but I dont expect EA ever to make another MMO, then after TSW fails I also dont expect funcom to make any other MMO tbh.
I wouldnt be surprised that after Blizzard makes their last MMO we are likely going to see the MMORPG popularity back down to the 1mil population and ppl just forsaking this genre alltogether, MMORPG has only been a buzzword these last few years cause of WoW once that is gone or blizzard MMORPGs are gone it will be back at the old days of mediocre unfinished products and ppl will pay for it. The whole promise the world and deliver nothing.
Again, hours played does not measure subscription numbers. A fact that I stated that you removed.
The variable "hours played" is however correlated to variable "subscription numbers". Which is a natural consequence of the fact that those two variables are not independent.
And?
That's irrelevant. Mainly because many people could be playing a TON of hours while some might not be playing much at all. Or, people could be playing average amounts during the time frame. As you stated, it's variable. Which means that you, nor anyone else knows how many hours each person is playing at any point in time as it's completely random. Thus, I stand by my factual statement, hours played does not measure subscription numbers.
That certainly is not a fact, that is your opinion. Facts are:
Hours xfire users played dropped by 10000 in one week;
More servers acording to swtorarena are going light;
People are constantly complaining about the game;
And those are rocksolid facts.
I mean If it was only xfire...But these facts add up to one trend. I would agree with you, if the game was amazing, everyone was prasing it, all servers were going heavy at all times, and they were adding more servers constantly, and xfire charts were indicating hours played dropping, your words would have made much more sense. {mod edit}
"Hours played does not measure subscription numbers" is an extremely vague statement, so it would be hard for a person to deduce whether or not it is factually true. Do you mean " # hours played, does not give any information which can help us estimate the subscription numbers"? Do you mean " #subscriptions is not a function that only depends on # hours played"? What do you mean? Specify .
I must say he has got a point, I have played for a lot of hours during the first couple of weeks, cause I had them off, my hours at the moment are at least down by 50% if not more, that doesnt really mean I have stopped playing. I dont even consider myself hardcore or anything, and I know that a lot of ppl are like this, they play a lot/take time off during the first weeks just to be there at headstart and then their play time is cut in more than half ( reminds me of WoW xpac releases where I usually take time off ).
So yeah he has got a point, I think its safe to assume lots of ppl take time off work to play extended hours at and near launch and then that numbers gets cut off by a lot. I also assume that someone that uses xfire is likely to be a more hardcore gamer than someone who doesnt ( I cant see anyone in my family that isnt computer savy but play WoW to install a random application they have no clue how it works they even sometimes ask me stuff about facebook ) which explain the sudden drop in hours played.
But the game is still new, and for the game to grow, new people have to start playing it, and the total hours played would balance out people who play at alot and then drop their time played, but not subscribtion? So we got atleast one fact that we all consider to be true, the game has hit it's peak. And now to determine is it stable, and subscribtions stay as they are, or they are dropping. Lets see facts, that say the game is stable at it's subscribtion number.
No your assumption is wrong, any hardcore players ( the target of xfire ) would already be there at launch, so you are mesuring the wrong crowd which xfire doesnt cater to, sure more ppl will join to balance out the hours but any hardcore players will play from the start, so is the nature of the beast that they will want to play at launch. I know ppl who want to buy when its cheaper they arent hardcore they are very very casual players that do not need or want anything to do with xfire.
Like I said even tho you might get the odd hardcore player who uses xfire starting afterwards, it will be a small blip on the map, the real bulk of the hardcore players have already played their bulk/time off work hours and why you get the 50% or more cut off in hours.
What that means is, you dont know if the subs have gone up or down based on that, you can say that hardcore players have slow down their play time sure, but that was always gonna be the case, its clear they are copying the WoW model which doesnt cater specifically to hardcore players but instead feeds on the much much larger market of casual players who have not reached the end game and who are not rushing to it. For every 10h a day drop in play time from a hardcore players you can have 5 casual players subscribing that play 1h a day. You dont know if this and xfire wont show you this cause it doesnt cater to that crowd.
I can't agree with you on the fact that majority of hardcore gamers are buying the games only at launch, and i don't agree that xfire players are hardcore. Those are not facts, those are assumptions, same as mine, so lets dismiss the assumptions and once again stick to the facts...
I bet when they start merging servers, you are going to say, that it's not subscribtion drop, it's people who played the game grew up a little, and have families, so they play less, hence servers are less loaded, when EA issues real subs numbers, and they are dropping you are going to say, well all those people dropped subscribtions right after the report, since, it was new content patch on the horrison, so they decided to wait till the patch, when the game goes f2p or shuts down to couple of servers you would say, hey it's just hollydays soon, everyone is spending the time with friends, so they all stopped playing at the same time, but soon they will come back, and even if EA shuts down the game completely, you would say it was conspiracy, and it's all blizzard harckers and payed off haters.
You know, sometimes you just have to look at the facts and say, well yea, the game is in a bad shape, subs are dropping, but there a slight chance that things will work out...