Howdy, Stranger!
It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!
Quick Links
Star Wars: The Old Republic a big risk for EA
meat_eater
Member Posts: 9
Star Wars: The Old Republic a big risk for EA, say analysts, everyone else on Earth
It's no secret that EA has a lot riding on the success of Star Wars: The Old Republic. What is a secret, however, is just how big a risk the recently launched MMO poses for the company. As reported by Reuters, Robert W. Baird & Co analyst Colin Sebastian believes that EA may have sunk more than $300 million into the development of The Old Republic. Others estimate somewhere between $100 million and $300 million but, either way, it's a hefty investment to lose if Sith fever doesn't catch on – not to mention the loss of expected monthly subscription fees.
EA revealed in February this year that its Old Republic business would be profitable at 500,000 subscribers and at least one analyst, Sterne Agee's Arvind Bhatia, believes the game should handily reach that quota. Bhatia expects the game to sell 3 million copies and lasso 1.5 million subscribers by the end of the year. Should The Old Republic fail, Bhatia believes EA's 2012 earnings could be reduced by up to 20 percent.
It's also worth pointing out that one analyst, Cowen & Company's Doug Creutz, believes The Old Republic may have already hit the 1.5 million player mark. Of course, the best way to learn of the MMO's success is simply to crack open your window, because you can bet that EA will be shouting it from the hills the moment The Old Republic starts turning a profit.
http://www.joystiq.com/2011/12/21/star-wars-the-old-republic-a-big-risk-for-ea-say-analysts-eve/
Comments
Heheh...these "analysts" must not know much about MMORPGs. They talk as if "lassoing" 1.5 million subscribers means that it can only go up from there. They really need a history lesson
.
Also, EA says they need 500K subscribers to turn a profit...but for how long. Saying I need 500K subscribers doesn't mean anything. Saying I need at least 500K subscribers for at least 2 years does.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Remeber AoC? They could not keep the subs. Why you think an average game as swtor that depends heavy in its IP to drawn people will be in 6 months?
SWG was a POS and it menage to retain 300k players at it peak.
I see no reason to think SWTRO couldn't maintain at least 500k. Considering it currently has 1.5 Million subs.
I would actually agree. I think SWTOR will be able to maintain thereabouts 500K for some time.
Regarding SWG though, I personally didn't like it, but others did...so prepare to be flamed
.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Honestly there is nothing in SWTOR that would tell me that they could have POSSIBLY spent near 300 million on it. I mean come on....
The number keeps going up it seems. I mean if this is what we get for 300 million, there really is no hope for the MMO industry...
People will need to resub once the box time expires, in 1 or 2 months.
Remember that Bioware employer, who found out they were in EA's next batch of bioware mythic layoffs , SWTOR will be a huge failure. BW has spent so much time and money on the VO that the rest of the game is trash. and now EA and BW are franticly throwing things into the game to make it seem interesting.
Remember Warhammer online and why it failed? Now all seems to make alot of sence. i
EDIT: "And Bioware? Don’t make me laugh. They’ve spent more money making the Old Republic than James Cameron spent on Avatar. **** you not. More than $ 300 million! Can you believe that? 5 years more than $ 300 million and they game still suck.
500k sounds like a good guess to me and a healthy MMO for sure.
Personally I see around 1 million subs when all is said and done.
As for SWG tried it 4 times Pre CU Pre NGE and twice post NGE, thought it was a poor game everytime.
Whats worse was the first time I played it was a gift from my father.
I agree. If they spent 300 million, then they seriously mismanaged their budget. They have a lot of VO sure, but 300 million worth? It's not like they have Vin Diesel and Will Smith doing their voices. And most of the cutscenes are just a few recycled animations.
I mean this stuff doesn't really bother me, but it makes me not believe that they spent 300 million...
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
I got in the beta for SWG...ran around an empty world for a while. Got in combat and found it extremely dull...quit, and never bought the game
.
But hey, a lot of people liked it.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
Naw think one of the Dev's flat out said it was not 300 million.
Just more parroting of one of the vaunted "Analysts" guessing. All we "know" is it was a lot:P
A better estimate would be closer to 100 million.
An EA guy (can't think of the word) said the cost at the time of his statement was closer to 80 million. This was about 4 or so months prior to release.
Even at 100 million thats some serious money, as much as GTA4 actually.
Assuming they sold 2 million copies at 60USD thats 120 Million right off the bat.
The analysts don't have any actual numbers, hence, why they are all around the board here. The only one who really knows is EA, and they'll release that information when they are ready.
All we know is
1) EA had a budget planned for 150 million and concurred that they didn't spend anything close to 300 million per a statement by EA.
2) They released information about having 1 million subscriptions 3 days after the official release, after all preorders were charged
3) Lucasarts will take 35% of all PROFITS EA makes, which means anything EA is taking in right now goes directly towards costs incurred for development. So, 100% goes to EA on anything they make currently.
4) BioWare has already spoken about upcoming fixes to the UI, graphics, etcetera, and brand spanking new content to be released roughly a month from the release date. (likely just after the resub point as a nod to retention).
Thats all WE really know.
You are taking it out of context. The 80 millions were calculeted BEFORE they start making it. It was an Estimate. They spended 300.000.000 or more to make the game. Actor Voices are not cheap.
Do you have any links or more information regarding things coming in TOR ? specifically the graphics fixes ? I am kinda waiting for that... thanks
Thats is what you are saying. Who is WE btw?
It's no secret that EA has a lot riding on the success of Star Wars: The Old Republic. What is a secret, however, is just how big a risk the recently launched MMO poses for the company. As reported by Reuters, Robert W. Baird & Co analyst Colin Sebastian believes that EA may have sunk more than $300 million into the development of The Old Republic. Others estimate somewhere between $100 million and $300 million but, either way, it's a hefty investment to lose if Sith fever doesn't catch on – not to mention the loss of expected monthly subscription fees.http://www.joystiq.com/2011/12/21/star-wars-the-old-republic-a-big-risk-for-ea-say-analysts-
There not really expensive.
I never heard any who's voice I would have remember from anything else (Save for Hale who voiced Fem Shepard). Its not like they got Jim Carrey, Will Smith ect ect.
If they spent 300mm to make this game because of voice acting, then I'm switching careers. Let's be really generous here and say that SWTOR has 1000 hours of voiced content (no freaking way). Let's also say that it takes a voice actor 3 hours of work to record 1 hour of voiced content due to mistakes, prep, whatever. Finally, let's say that a "significant" amount of the 300mm went to voice acting, say 1/3rd, or 100mm.
That means that voice actors made:
$100,000,000 / 3,000 hours = $33,333 dollars an hour!
Yeah, I'm changing jobs.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
They have what I would classify "good quality videogame actors." Like David Hayter, Jennifer Hale, etc.
I'm sure they aren't cheap...but they don't make Hollywood money like Will Smith.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
I was being ironic about the voices. Where did they burned between 100-300 Millions of dollars, if the only thing good about the game are the voices?
google this: According with some websites EA was specting to sell 300 Millions boxes. 1.5 seens really low in conparison with their expectation.
Absolutely.
http://www.swtor.com/blog/sneak-peek-james-ohlen
http://tor.zam.com/story.html?story=28498
I'll add more links as I find them, but there are plenty of post release interviews.. and even some good info here on MMORPG.com
http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/12/01/little-risk-of-failure-analysts-predict-swtor-will-turn-a-hea/3
"The revenue split is around 35 percent to LucasArts after EA earns back their investment. That means EA keeps most of the revenue from disc sales (they have marketing expenses and need to staff up the server farms), so they should earn a nice profit there."
http://www.gamespy.com/articles/114/1147365p1.html
" EA CEO John Riccitiello refused to provide specifics, but he did say the investment is "substantially less" than the rumored $300 million cost. Riccitiello also commented on analyst projections that SWTOR will need at least 2 million subscribers to be profitable.
"At half a million subscribers, the game is substantially profitable, but it's not the sort of thing we would write home about," Riccitiello said. "Anything north of one million subscribers is a very profitable business."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/star-wars-the-old-republics-scope-is-dizzying/2011/12/20/gIQAidUs7O_story.html
" MMO developers have traditionally eschewed voice acting due to the prohibitive cost, but with an estimated budget of $150 million, EA and BioWare spared no expense for the SWTOR's narrative polish."
Whaaaa? Are you being ironic again
?
I don't even think there are 300 million PC gamers. I mean, Halo 3 sold only like 34 million. I think those websites are smoking crack
.
Are you team Azeroth, team Tyria, or team Jacob?
We need info from December 2011 not outdated info as the ones you linked.
Here is onel link about the 300 wasted millions again form the devs.
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-06-29-ea-200-hours-of-play-per-swtor-class
Each of the six Star Wars: The Old Republic classes pack 200 hours of gameplay, EA has revealed - excluding crafting, raiding and "the multiplayer".
EA Games boss Frank Gibeau described the in-development MMO as "gigantic", although he wishes the game hadn't cost quite so much money to make.
"I don't pay much attention to that talk [of a $300 million budget] - I get a lot of questions from analysts and press about it," Gibeau told GamesIndustry.biz.
"What I try and concentrate on is, is it a good game and is it ready to go?