Analyst Estimates Investment of SWTOR to be $500 Million

Royalkin

It appears that perhaps EA might have bitten off more than it can chew.

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Upon his return to EA, Riccitiello was approached by Frank Gibeau, who ran the company’s games-label business, with a suggestion that EA acquire BioWare/Pandemic. Riccitiello retained an ownership stake in Elevation — and thus in the studio — so a special committee led by Gibeau was set up to evaluate the deal and make a recommendation to the board. The deal got done in October 2007 for about $775 million, making it EA’s largest acquisition ever at the time.

“Knowing we would work with John again was a tremendous plus to make us want to join the company,” says BioWare co-founder Ray Muzyka. “At every step along the way, they worked with us to focus on our core values.”

That deal brought aboard what many expect to become EA’s next major growth property. The company launched “Star Wars: The Old Republic” on Dec. 20. As a PC-based multiplayer game, “The Old Republic” will sell an initial retail pack plus monthly subscriptions allowing users to continue playing.

In a Dec. 23 statement, EA boasted that “The Old Republic” had attracted more than 1 million registered subscribers in just three days on the market.

Doug Creutz of Cowen & Co. says that Riccitiello’s tenure as CEO has featured misfires along with its successes but that “Star Wars” may represent his biggest bet of all, considering both the purchase price of BioWare/Pandemic and the development costs poured into the game since then.

“I think it’s safe to say that the total all-in investment in ‘Star Wars’ is probably approaching half a billion dollars,” Creutz says. “EA has minimized its risks as much as it can on this bet, but it’s still a risky bet. To the extent that any one game defines his tenure, it’s going to be how ‘Star Wars’ performs.”

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Read the Entire Article Here.

Souldrainer

Originally posted by Royalkin

It appears that perhaps EA might have bitten off more than it can chew.

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Upon his return to EA, Riccitiello was approached by Frank Gibeau, who ran the company’s games-label business, with a suggestion that EA acquire BioWare/Pandemic. Riccitiello retained an ownership stake in Elevation — and thus in the studio — so a special committee led by Gibeau was set up to evaluate the deal and make a recommendation to the board. The deal got done in October 2007 for about $775 million, making it EA’s largest acquisition ever at the time.

“Knowing we would work with John again was a tremendous plus to make us want to join the company,” says BioWare co-founder Ray Muzyka. “At every step along the way, they worked with us to focus on our core values.”

That deal brought aboard what many expect to become EA’s next major growth property. The company launched “Star Wars: The Old Republic” on Dec. 20. As a PC-based multiplayer game, “The Old Republic” will sell an initial retail pack plus monthly subscriptions allowing users to continue playing.

In a Dec. 23 statement, EA boasted that “The Old Republic” had attracted more than 1 million registered subscribers in just three days on the market.

Doug Creutz of Cowen & Co. says that Riccitiello’s tenure as CEO has featured misfires along with its successes but that “Star Wars” may represent his biggest bet of all, considering both the purchase price of BioWare/Pandemic and the development costs poured into the game since then.

“I think it’s safe to say that the total all-in investment in ‘Star Wars’ is probably approaching half a billion dollars,” Creutz says. “EA has minimized its risks as much as it can on this bet, but it’s still a risky bet. To the extent that any one game defines his tenure, it’s going to be how ‘Star Wars’ performs.”

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Read the Entire Article Here.

Already posted a few hours ago.  In summary, he names no real sources, he has hated SWTOR for a long time, and just randomly throws numbers around.

Kakkzooka

Youch.

I do not envy Riccitiello's probable sleep patterns at this current juncture.

Ambros123

Yeah everyone kinda agreed in the other thread horse shit to the unsupported claim of 500 mill.  I've hear 250 mill which I could accept but 500 mill is just a ridiculous claim.

Bunks

Makes EA louse's $300 million not as outlandish as once claimed though.

 

Something tells me we will see some heads roll at the next quarterly.

Mephster

Pretty much crash and burn. Should have made Kotor 3 rpg instead.

 

Video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeJL-hcIQTk 

Ambros123

Originally posted by Bunks

Makes EA louse's $300 million not as outlandish as once claimed though.

 

Something tells me we will see some heads roll at the next quarterly.

Doubtful head will roll, didn't they say they only needed 250k subs to regain the loss of the cost in investment?

Bunks

Originally posted by Ambros123

Originally posted by Bunks

Makes EA louse's $300 million not as outlandish as once claimed though.

 

Something tells me we will see some heads roll at the next quarterly.

Doubtful head will roll, didn't they say they only needed 250k subs to regain the loss of the cost in investment?

No, more like 500K was to break even or profit, but estimated  3-4 million box sales. Investors were anticipating to make SWTOR a cash cow. But were angry that Lucas was taking 35% right off the top of every dollar.

GPrestige

Originally posted by Bunks

Originally posted by Ambros123

Originally posted by Bunks

Makes EA louse's $300 million not as outlandish as once claimed though.

 

Something tells me we will see some heads roll at the next quarterly.

Doubtful head will roll, didn't they say they only needed 250k subs to regain the loss of the cost in investment?

No, more like 500K was to break even or profit, but estimated  3-4 million box sales. Investors were anticipating to make SWTOR a cash cow. But were angry that Lucas was taking 35% right off the top of every dollar.

Lucas has the sweetest deal of all time, thanks to the original thought that Star Wars IV would fail to begin with.

PyrateLV

Puremallace

So just to point out the mmo hypocrisy here. TOR drops maybe that much right. WoW MAKES 1 BILLIONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

 

dollars a years and the best they can do is a raid every 6 months.

 

THIS GENRE IS DEAD AS LONG AS WoW is alive

 

The amount of hypocrites in the genre right now is hilarious and WoW having the balls to take the high road on world pvp when it died in WoW roughly 4 years ago is almost to the point I want to piss my pants laughing when I read these guys post.

Loke666

Bioware do make other games as well. Both Mass effect and Dragon age gets in money so counting in what EA paid for Bioware in the development cost for TOR really isn't relevant.

Bioware is still worth money even if TOR flops totally, and EA could always sell them to Activision, Microsoft or some other company for at least a rather large sum.

If they would have bought BW just for TOR and it was the only game they made then OK, it wouldn't still be perfect but at least partially true but now it just seems silly.

Elikal

Originally posted by Loke666

Bioware do make other games as well. Both Mass effect and Dragon age gets in money so counting in what EA paid for Bioware in the development cost for TOR really isn't relevant.

Bioware is still worth money even if TOR flops totally, and EA could always sell them to Activision, Microsoft or some other company for at least a rather large sum.

If they would have bought BW just for TOR and it was the only game they made then OK, it wouldn't still be perfect but at least partially true but now it just seems silly.

For me as gamer, speculating is idle and relatively useless. I assume they invested a LOT, that much can be assumed. I am more sceptic about the relation, when so much went into VO and so little effort went into the entire rest. SWTOR will face mayor server merges before the year is over. And then what? So far it seems Bioware just adds "more of the same", more flashpoints etc. It is more a mental problem than a monetary one. "No path is as dark as the one you walk with your eyes shut.", to quote Flemeth; a fact that seems to describe Biowares current course entirely.

Dredphyre

The other thread was locked....and for good reason.  This 'analyst' is a joke.  He also predicted SWTOR would sell 4 million boxes and have 2.5 million subs. LOL.  Now people want to throw his latest crystal ball figure around as if it means something.

 

 

fadis

You know what... it's all about how your count the $$$.

I'm sure there is one way of looking at TOR that will give you a $100-150 million range.... and other ways of looking at costs that up the number substantially...

... kind of like when you hear politicians talk about the # of jobs they or this or that "created."

 

 

plescure

Originally posted by PyrateLV

lol. its funny cause its true

Dredphyre

Originally posted by fadis

You know what... it's all about how your count the $$$.

I'm sure there is one way of looking at TOR that will give you a $100-150 million range.... and other ways of looking at costs that up the number substantially...

... kind of like when you hear politicians talk about the # of jobs they or this or that "created."

 

 

Except that EA and BioWare have a law abiding, fiduciary responsibility to report their financials accurately to shareholders and the public -- a much more serious and legally binding responsibility than some 'analyst'. 

 

EA/BioWare has already stated that SWTOR was developed for something around $120 million.  That is as honest and straightforward estimate as you'll find anywhere.

smh_alot

Originally posted by Bunks


Originally posted by Ambros123


Originally posted by Bunks


Makes EA louse's $300 million not as outlandish as once claimed though.
 
Something tells me we will see some heads roll at the next quarterly.

Doubtful head will roll, didn't they say they only needed 250k subs to regain the loss of the cost in investment?

No, more like 500K was to break even or profit, but estimated  3-4 million box sales. Investors were anticipating to make SWTOR a cash cow. But were angry that Lucas was taking 35% right off the top of every dollar.

 

This is conjecture, unless you can show me that EA/BW people themselves stated that their estimation used 3-4 million box sales, which there isn't.

As much as this analist's report seems to use conjecture and a false premise, but I can see how haters/critics of the game or EA might love to believe it (pretty obvious).

The guy seems to attach the invested money of $775 million largely to SWTOR, but that's like saying that Youtube has a development budget of billion dollars when it was acquired by Google, or that of each game company that was ever bought, 70% of the acquisition money was the development budget of their next game.

That's just silly thinking.

Enosh

Originally posted by Dudehog

TOR is a half a billion dollar dumpster fire of suck.  Burn baby burn. The future is sandbox. You know this to be true, developers.

jerlot65

i guess we forget that the $775 million also includes game franchises like Dragon Age and Mass Effect.......

 

Its not hard for a MMO as popular as this to make up its cost, especially with the inital box sales hitting over one milion.  SWTOR will be fine and EA will have a somehwat great success.  SWTOR could be a cash cow but it all will come down to what BW will do over the next 6-12 months.

By the looks of the latest patch and all the small patches they do I think they are on the right track.

gotha

On another topic  33% revenue vs 13%?

 

what a waste of money,  basically we are paying a third more then the game is actually worth because of a greedy assed rigged system.

 

REVOLUTION COMRAD

tom_gore

SWTOR will probably break even and maybe turn a healthy profit, but it won't be a cash cow like WoW has been for 7 years. Not a chance.

Depends of course what is the truth of their development cost for TOR.

I guess we'll all know when their next quarterly figures are published. They simply cannot pass detailing something as big as TOR.

 

 

stayontarget

Originally posted by Enosh

Originally posted by Dudehog

TOR is a half a billion dollar dumpster fire of suck.  Burn baby burn. The future is sandbox. You know this to be true, developers.

Digg'n the Tin Tin.

Bunks

Originally posted by smh_alot

Originally posted by Bunks

Originally posted by Ambros123

Originally posted by Bunks

Makes EA louse's $300 million not as outlandish as once claimed though.

 

Something tells me we will see some heads roll at the next quarterly.

Doubtful head will roll, didn't they say they only needed 250k subs to regain the loss of the cost in investment?

No, more like 500K was to break even or profit, but estimated  3-4 million box sales. Investors were anticipating to make SWTOR a cash cow. But were angry that Lucas was taking 35% right off the top of every dollar.

 

This is conjecture, unless you can show me that EA/BW people themselves stated that their estimation used 3-4 million box sales, which there isn't.

 

As much as this analist's report seems to use conjecture and a false premise, but I can see how haters/critics of the game or EA might love to believe it (pretty obvious).

 

The guy seems to attach the invested money of $775 million largely to SWTOR, but that's like saying that Youtube has a development budget of billion dollars when it was acquired by Google, or that of each game company that was ever bought, 70% of the acquisition money was the development budget of their next game.

 

That's just silly thinking.

Cowen & Company made the 3-4 million claim they could take that many from WOW alone. during an investors meeting and confrence call with EA ceo. Based on EA's view of retaining possibly 1.5 million subs to make them $80 million a month PROFIT. But conjecture is the main staple of investors, otherwise it wouldn't be called risk.

Hickey, at the prodding of Activisions CEO, already pointed out back in January that investors were betting against EA's positions due to bad negotiations with Lucasarts, then Riccitiello admitted EA was "incurring significant development costs" after the $80 million development costs were already reached. So anyone who knows anything about business also knows development is only a fraction of actual costs overall to a product. Rule of thumb is marketing, production and manufacturing, and distribution is usually two to three times development costs for games.

Do I think $500 million is blowing smoke, absolutley, would it be fraud to say the game will cost $100-120 million to produce, absolutely. The $300 million range is not only quite possible, it seems quite rational even for an investor to bet against it. Your not seeing CEO's or PR guys battling over this, this is investors betting one way or the other, what they are mad about is Lucas is the only guy in the room with a sure thing.

Thinking otherwise is provincial.

BreakNFaces

Originally posted by jerlot65

i guess we forget that the $775 million also includes game franchises like Dragon Age and Mass Effect.......

 

Its not hard for a MMO as popular as this to make up its cost, especially with the inital box sales hitting over one milion.  SWTOR will be fine and EA will have a somehwat great success.  SWTOR could be a cash cow but it all will come down to what BW will do over the next 6-12 months.

By the looks of the latest patch and all the small patches they do I think they are on the right track.

Agreed, Before the game went live they had already made 60-80 in sales going on their figures and this month will be their 1st su bs, So in less then a month of launch they have got roughly 80-95 mil back. We also have to factor in TOR has been delayed in big parts of the world and by their own accord they have limited sales on Origin to not OVER populate servers while they are launching

80-95 mil for one month

Hmmm not bad, not bad at all

 

For The Empire

Unknown

EA has stated that they needed to sell 1.5million boxes in order to make SWTOR a success. I am pretty sure they surpassed that number just on their opening weekend. That means that SWTOR is a success for EA which means that it will continue on unhindered for years to come. I take my word from EA not from a random analyst who dislikes SWTOR.