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Market Stagnation, Confusion, and Over-Saturation
Royalkin
Member UncommonPosts: 267
Blizzard cornered the market when they released World of Warcraft, and they were able to do this because of expert timing, and for the first time someone created an MMORPG for non-MMORPG gamers. They took what was perceived to be the best parts of single-player experiences and likewise from the previous generation of MMORPGs and melded them together. And while the older generation of MMO gamers avoided it like the plague, it attracted a huge audience of new gamers - non-MMORPG gamers. However, what they failed to realize is that just like single-player experiences, these games have finite longevity. Eventually (8 years later) players will grow tired of continuously repeating the same content. The slow loss of subscribers that World of Warcraft is experiencing is proof of this.
However, this understanding has not yet reached the board rooms of developers, publishers, and investment groups. What is really happening is stagnation and over-saturation, which exists because of the two following factors;
1. Market Confusion
Developers are not sure what the market demand actually is; they are confused. It was assumed for quite some time that the market wanted Warcraft style themeparks. However this cannot be the case since every attempt has failed to reach World of Warcraft’s subscription levels. It is therefore seen as a failure in the eyes of the industry, investors, and other developers.
Developers are further confused because the majority of players who initially flock to these new themeparks eventually return to World of Warcraft, because it soon becomes apparent that the new themepark is a Warcraft immitation (and why should they pay to experience an imitation when they can play the original?), so it appears that the Warcraft style themepark model holds market dominance, when it fact it really doesn’t. If this weren't true, then there should exist (at the very least) a group of themeparks with multi-million subscribers, yet this is not the case. No themepark has ever came close to the success of Warcraft, and the themeparks that do exist have relatively similar subscription levels to MMORPGs that came before Warcraft.
2. Market Stagnation
Developers and investors have a large amout of trepidation in regards to taking chances on anyting that breaks with the current perception of the 'successful' design philosophy. This is not because the Warcraft style themepark is successful per se, but because it is the model which is thought to provide the most potential success (Blame Warcraft). Any developer that attempts to do so marginalizes themselves, and they face a serious battle to find financing (even if any is available).
Also, MMORPG development is expensive, and because of this developers do not want to move too far away from what they already know how to do. This also goes along with risk mitigation, wherein investors do not want to invest in a perceived 'unproven' design philosophy. Also, developers/investors are interested in achieving the best return on investment possible, and because the costs associated with a Warcraft style themepark are well known in most cases, they can better asses risk mitigation and maximize returns.
So while there might be some demand for a differing design philosophy, developers are not yet willing to address that.
In reality, the Wacraft style themepark does not hold market dominance, World of Warcraft itself, alone holds market dominance. It is an anomaly in the history of the MMORPG, and no future MMORPG will ever garner the subscription numbers that it had even at its worst point. Developers falsly think they can achive this, and thus continue to follow the same false design philosophy.
I contend that, a brave developer is going to have to step out of this confused, stagnated, and over-saturated market by creating something truly unique, otherwise the current situation will continue. While there are games that are drastically different than Warcraft style themeparks, these games lack features, polish, and because of such cannot garner enough support to actively compete with current titles.
I'm not suggesting we will see a return of sandbox virtual worlds, but players can only tolerate so much of the same thing before they clamor for something that is genuinely different, and I think we are beginning to see that. I make no predictions and do not claim to know where that will lead.
Comments
While some specific things in your premise I disagree with, that is besides the point. I agree with your overall statement. The market probably is over-saturated and a great many people are confused and something drastically new and different is needed. I dont' think a return to old style, nor a new I'll say WoWish style will really work very well anymore.
That is why I am looking forward to The Secret World! As it will trully be something different.
No levels, but grinding out abilities YOU want like how it was in old SWG pre-NGE, to build your character.
At least it gets away from all the Linear spoonfeeding Themepark trash that has been released the last years.
I suggest more sandbox games. But with a storyline for the ones needing someone elses content.
I personaly feel sandbox games are a better way to go. Player content can be made up on the go, weekly thing, monthly, whatever. In many sandbox games i have played, there was more content and fun than any themepark i have played.
No with that said i will also add reasons to my reasoning. I have played many MMO's my favorite always seem to be sandbox or more open themeparks. In a themepark you are led around and told what to do and when to do it. Fine for some people. But in most cases you rush or even take your time to a certain max level. Once you reasch that level you normaly are out of things to do and have to resort to dailies, warzones, and/or raids and do these over and over and over. And in some games grind the heck out of pvp to get pvp gear. BTW people thats just a form of lazy developers giving you lame content to keep you busy. And then an expansion or something comes out and you rush to max out again. Where do you go from here????? Dailes, warzones, and raids. Its a never ending cycle and gets boring fast.
Sandbox games with open exploration, guild and personal features, event features for players to make their own, and so much more just seem to offer more to keep me busy and not get bored. Even games like SWG had ways to allow you the player to hold events, races, big get togethers, and a good bit more than your normal themepark. I just feel players need to be more creative, not let their creativity be placed on the back burner. Our mmos have become dumbed down, to easy, relaxed, and content seems to take forever to be patched in or sold as expansions.
There are some smart people here by reading these forums. But they dont act on it, try, or even want to. We need that back, we need to lead our mmos and content, not have them lead us.
Plus who doesnt like large open worlds/lands to explore and find cool interesting things in the oddest palces?
Stop letting yourselves be limited, explode with your knowledge and smarts, take control, and start becoming a community once again. Soloing can stick to consoles, we need creativity to allow a better range of mmo's to be made and the game companies just arent cutting it.
Market isnt over saturated, quite the opposite really, every mayor launch shows that people are interested in a new title, AoC and onwards all had over 1 million boxsales from start. so the market is there for the taking just no one have managed yet to keep a big amount of subs.
On your note of market confusion I will argue that this is true of all games, not just MMOs.
The reason is simple, development cycles. It takes on average 5 years to make a AAA title. When they announce a title it is done based on the demands of the time. So the core concepts of the game are going to be similar to what is popular at that time. After 5 years it might not remain true and they're forced to make ad hoc adjustments.
Skyrim in its first month sold over 10M copies. SWTOR in its first month is looking to sell over 2M copies. This is the fastest selling MMO of all time and yet it is 1/5 as much as the fastest selling RPG of all time.
Website: http://www.thegameguru.me / YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/users/thetroublmaker
hit the nail on the head there.
the mmo as a genre has become wow as a genre.
but, i feel there's a slow awakening to this fact and you can see in some upcoming games the attempt to step out of this shadow and return to the roots of what makes a good game - the confidance to innovate and the determination to stand alone rather than in the shadow of another game.
i truly feel in the next few years we'll see a few games released which will make us all salivate. i, for one, have my eyes on three or four good looking games and am excited for them all.
the problem is it's been easy up until this last year to just remake wow. you can tell by the massive slap in the face poor bioware got that their game is a year too late. rift opened the floodgates and gw2 made high promises. skyrim then opened a few more minds. there's just one too many innovate ideas out right now that need a truly cohesive surge but i feel we're on the edge of something good.
i don't see this as the end of the mmo. the mmo is the perfect internet game. i feel it's just the end of the wow mmo.
and that's a good thing.
time to evolve.
Well I think its obvious to anyone reading my posts on these forums, I prefer virtual worlds, or as much as possible. But I didn't state that in my original post, both for objectivity, and to allow people to express their own views.
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While your assesment of box sales and the intial flocking to a new title is accurate, it doesn't address subscriptions or their retention. I think my comments are accurate in that while there might be an initial rush, that enthusiasm almost never lasts.
I pretty much agree with the OP and ONOMAS. I think the next company to realease something truly ground breaking will be the next big corner stone of the genre. SWTOR has huge numbers right now, but I won't be suprised to see them start bleeding people soon.
There is nothing very engaging with the game. There is nohing really engaging with any of the games out right now, sad but true. This whole hobby needs to be flipped on its head. I doubt it ever will be though, triple A game manufactureres don't really care about anything other than their financial bottom line and that, is where it all falls down.
Anyway.
If you want a new idea, go read an old book.
In order to be insulted, I must first value your opinion.
All in all, I agree.
A few years back, Blizzard themselves came out and said that they were really surprised other developers were trying to walk in their footsteps rather than come out and try something new, at least genre-wise (this was back when the MMO landscape was still a strictly dwarves-and-elves deal).
Though at the same time, they seemed to think the reason for the 'failures' (or at least no big sucesses) was not about the choice of genre or even features, but about implementation itself. This I agree with as well. To me, all gaming is mostly about implementation. Features garner interest, but they mean next to nothing when they're not implemented well.
So while I do think it's time MMOs step away from the popular template, it's not going to do any good as long as we're not seeing something close to Blizzard-level of quality in implementation.
And then of course, there's a flip side to that coin: I'd also not be surprised if a developer came out with an MMO that's not too different, but with exceptional implemantiton of familiar concepts, and did really really well.
I don't agree with multiple points of your analysis.
I'm part of that older generation and I played WoW for about 4 years, from pre-order vanilla through the middle of Wrath, then picked it back up for the first 8 months of Cata. So I find this statement to be false and generalized.I find this particularly ironic considering the average life of MMO's and even Single player games is far, far less than this. The fact that WoW is still millions of subscribers strong and almost a decade old, with what people term as an outdated sub model, is testament to the contrary. While it may be true that WoW has added content every couple of years, it was essentially the same game - as you state, "repeating the same content".
Accept we now have SWTOR which beat(?) WoW's pre-order record? They had something like 1.5 million sub's at game launch? I remember watching a GBTV episode where they stated that BioWare was releasing early access to about 100k pre-orders 2x a day for a couple weeks? I don't know, you say Developers are not sure what the market demand actually is" yet we are sitting at another WoW-esque MMO release?While some look at the RIFT release as small and their subscriber base as small, it's still in the hundreds of thousands which the largest sub'd game which alot of people would contest as a sandbox game would be Eve Online which only has what, 230k subs? (I could be off on that but I thought it was somewhere around there) RIFT was released at a bad time and just after WoW release Cataclysm - which was touted as the expansion to fix alot of issues with PvP and other aspects of the game, so it was highly anticipated. Essentially, WoW smothered the RIFT release due to timing.
I think you have it backwords. The themepark style does hold market dominance, if you look at the demographic of gamers that play WoW and others like it. WoW gamers jump to other games like it, they jumped to RIFT as well as a nice chunk of gamers jumped form WoW to SWTOR. I'd imagine some of those gamers will even maintain subs on both. What you don't find, is alot of cross-genre gamers or those who play games like Mortal Online and Eve Online as well as games like RIFT and World of Warcraft. Furthermore, developers hope they can chip off a huge chunk of the World of Warcraft subscribers, that's why they continue to produce such games. SWTOR is probably the biggest success story for a runner up of WoW - even though we'll likely never have the stats to prove it.Furthermore, people don't give enough vocal credit to Blizzard and WoW. WoW was the Einstein of themepark MMO's and still continues to innovate far beyond what we are seeing out of even the newest AAA themeparks. Evidence of that can be seen in the questing. BioWare may have all the voice overs but WoW has more interactive and fun quests such as Gnomerageddon and such. Where the quests are still quests to do tasks but those tasks aren't just a rehash of the tasks you've completed the last 50 levels. That's the type of stuff that draws the long term subs and you just don't see that type of questing innovation in games like RIFT and SWTOR. WoW also is very fluid. Their animations look top-notch and seem to flow better during combat actions. It may be an old game but it's still pumping out some of the best MMO innovation in the industry. So you may feel that it's because it's World of Warcraft due to Market Confusion and Stagnation but it's because Blizzard put out a superior product and continues to prove that their development staff still knows how to hang onto the ball in a clutch situation - despite Kyle Williams.
Good read, im just confused that you take "8 years" as some point where wow magically went old, and even a proof of something, one would think that aging in general would manifest itself as a (slow) decline with no outside influences, not a single point when "coincidentally" some game changes happened.
Just saying.
"8 Years" was not referenced as a specific time frame for being old, but rather to provide context, being that Warcraft is 8 years old. I didn't mean to claim that something 'magical' happend at that specific time.
I too am waiting for the rise of the Secret World. I have a feeling its gonna be awesome! Three factions, a promised good combat system and gameplay and kick ass graphics too boot, its no brainer!
http://www.youtube.com/user/chopgr?feature=mhee
"The Heavens burned, the stars
cried out
And under the ashes of infinity,
Hope, scarred and bleeding,
breathed its last."
Well, I will reluctantly concede to your point referencing older generation gamers. My reference for that point was both, the multiple friends who I have which do no care for Warcraft in the slightest degree, and the great multitude of things I have read regarding the older generation of gamers' opinions regarding Warcraft in a general sense. I will admit though, that is a relative and subjective viewpoint.
As for the rest, we will just have to agree to disagree.
People dont realize that the other option to these investors instead of not trying to gain the returns that WoW did, is to not invest in MMORPGs.
People seem to think that people investing in these games are somehow misguiding their investment, but the truth is, they are doing it cause there is a potential to make money out of the non-MMORPG crowd and that is it.
Sandbox games never had a massive investment return and there is nothing suggesting that a sandbox game would have the potential to attract 10 million players and making 1bil of profits. Just look at EVE its not a billion dollar profit making IP, because sandbox games do not attract enough players.
When games like SWTOR fail investors are not going to want more investment in MMORPGs simple, I wouldnt hold my breath over any real investment in any sandbox games in the near future.
These are pointless discussions and I would suggest that if you want to see this game ( sandbox game ) so badly you round up a group of investors try and convince them that sandbox is the right way and gamble with your own money and reputation to make it happen otherwise it will never happen, these investors are worth billions of dollars making money is their living, I doubt anyone here knows how to better invest their money.
I would say that the genre doesn't need specifically something unique, but something next-gen. The first sign of next-gen and the aspect people pay most attention to are the visuals first and foremost. So developers should get out of 2005 and start creating games with visuals that vastly outperform their competition. The next important thing is to improve on what's already there, like the cross-server structure, allowing for much larger universes to emerge.
It is particularly difficult for this genre to outclass the competition because when you have a game like WoW that keeps improving itself over-time, while having the foundation already in place, you need to be able to hit its weak points to be distinguishable. Right now WoW's weak point is that it looks like ass, and that it hasn't taken the cross-server concept as far as it perhaps could. It's weak point is also the lack of ways for the mini-communities to distinguish themselves from each other, and the community aspect as a whole could use some improvement.
Uniqueness is important but it has to be built on a foundation that rivals and outperforms that of the competition first and foremost. Lastly, uniqueness doesn't have to come from going from black to white but something as simple as not using those damned talent trees every single time while not even bothering to make the system look like it's made with your own game in mind and not just copy-pasted from you-know-what. It can keep the fundamentals of the system intact while not being a goddamn talent tree.
I think it's amazing how the companies making these games don't understand the actual market at all... after all, don't they always tell us they are all 'masssive gamers' and are making games they themelves 'want to play'?
It's confusing.
Maybe it's down to the fact that whatever game is released is always 5 years out of step with the market... when the design docs are laid out it is for a game thats popular THEN, rather then what will be popular in 5 years in the future.
Take SWTOR... 3-5 years ago it was probably seen as what the market wanted. It was all about, from a dev point of view, themeparks. Since then, especially in the last year or two, we have seen a big part of the market burn out on themeparks and change the type of game they want to see.
The trouble is you cannot change your core system design at that point and change your themepark in to a hybrid sandpark... you have to just keep going.
Maybe thats why a game like SWTOR seems so out of time... maybe thats why it feels like it should have launch at least 5 years ago?
Just look at ANYTHING in the market, everything is about grabbing the market from a profitable venture, Apple releases the Iphone, every phone company in the world is trying to make the best smart phone to compete and take the market.
Broadband is released now every ISP is competing to offer better and better broadband and make more money than the previous one.
McDonald's creates a multi billion dollar fast food franchise and there are now hundreds of fast food franchises making money and competing for the same market.
This is how the real world works, until someone makes a successful product that hits the market other wont follow.
Well to be fair and honest mmorpgs werent a huge thing years ago (before wow). Some of the older games just dont have a high population because of the newer stuff coming out. Older games are outdated. But the older games offered more features to their players.
With that being said games like EQ, SWG, DACO, UO, and others had good sized populations for the time when mmo's were just starting out. Then comes BLizzard, a known and good company known for War Craft and Starcraft. So not only did it have a new style mmo but it also had the name (war craft). It could have went the other way for them. So the gaming community exploded with this new style game. Sandboxes realy didnt get much of a chance since then because themepark games controled most the mmo's.
No one has tried anything different because they all want the rags to riches dreams of making the next big WOW game and follow to closely to WOWs footsteps (even been said by blizzard). Eve is a sci-fi sandbox, you also have to be fair about that game also. They are popular ans successful. But not everyone likes sci-fi, flying around in ships, no land, etc. Some dont like fantasy, some dont like historical, some.... well you get the drift.
Sandboxes arent popular or arent any made because they suck, or no one has intrest. Its because they feel WOW was successful lets do what they did. Sandboxes just have more features, more content, and more adaptible to someones play style. Archeage for example = sandbox and the game is growing intrest by many. The repopulation has some of the coolest features and ideas, but lack the graphics. There are many options. I just cant see why people prefer limits compared to features.
Example of features found in a new sandbox game coming out later:
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Hybrid approach which blends Sandbox and Theme Park mechanics.
Unique three Faction PvP (Player vs. Player) system which allows players to join one of the two major Nations (OWON or FPR), or form their own independent Rogue Nation. Rogue Nations are similar to Guilds in other games, except they also act as their own independent faction in PvP.
City building system allows Nations to form their own cities complete with Walls, Turrets, Harveters, Workshops, Houses, and other forms of structures geared towards benefiting the owning character, or the City as a whole. Cities can even be besieged by opposing Nations.
Skills based gameplay featuring over 100 skills, and 15 tiers of advancement within each skill. This includes Combat, Social, Rogue, Crafting, Medical and General skills trees.
Engagement system which provides randomly occuring events throughout the world. These events can evolve, spread and mutate based on how players respond to them. Visting the same location three times could provide you with three very different environments if players have allowed alien species or catastrophies alter an area. Engagements are both common and random, and all players who participate will be eligible for automatic rewards.
Advanced generated mission (quest) system ensures that players always have something to keep them occupied. Unlike generated quest systems of the past, our generated quests can be epic in scale.
Easily toggle between one of our two combat modes. Tired of 1,2,3,4 key mashing combat? Try our Action Mode combat which allows you to aim and shoot your way to victory. Or stick to RPG Mode combat, with a traditional MMORPG feel.
Numerous new twists on combat traditional MMO combat. Openings system allows players to take advantage of create openings for their allies and encourages teamwork. Momentum system allows you to take advantage of gained Momentum to use powerful abilities. Hide behind cover, croutch or lie prone. Gain experience against a particular species to gain edges over them in combat.
Players are not forced into combat. There are many non-combat related activities and ways to advance them independently of it. This includes an advanced crafting system which allows the creation of many advanced items.
Vehicle system featuring upgrades, vehicle to vehicle combat, and siege vehicles, in addition to the usual fast transport.
Customize your equipment with a fitting system that tailors items to your style.
Expect more from your pets. Tame animals and have them grow in power over time. Construct or purchase robots to perform a variety of tasks. Hire NPCs or take advantage of Genetically Engineered beings. Even control multiple pets at a single time.
Be rewarded for your travel through the exploration system.
Tired of farming the same Group or Raid bosses using the same old strategies? The Repopulation features a generated ability system for our boss mobs. This system allows bosses to a select number of abilities appropriate to their difficulty tier and species. This forces groups or raids to adjust their tactics on the fly.
Have an affect on the world. NPCs will spread word of your deeds to other players, or curse your name if you have treated them wrongly. Respond quickly to threats in an area and you can prevent them from becoming larger scale problems. Fail to do so and an area could fall under enemy hands.
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But by far beats most the themepark features. And most this stuff many people even here ask for and want. But dont give it a try beacuse sandboxes just didnt have the chance to grow. Themeparks are getting old to me, and many here.
Basically, yes agree.
It is for the sake of argument, gambling. Investors don't like a gamble, so if you are a dev, you better make damn sure you don't mess up.
The result? Play for the safest option, the tried and tested options - Basically backing the odds-on favourite horse - You won't win much, but you will at least get your money back. The other alternative is to put your eggs into the sandbox basket and risk complete failure or not completing the game at all.
Would i risk a sandbox game if i was an investor? To put it bluntly, the dev house would have to be pretty slick and have it's shit completely together, with pretty much everything in place - My funding would just be to support longterm development. I wouldn't support start-ups, why would i when i can support proven teams with evidence of their experience. Or better yet, support a game that can briefly rape the market for a quick buck...perhaps a Star Wars game.
And here we are
. The only way forward, as many devs have found, is to just put your own ass on the line and just mortgage the family jewels. I doubt their idea pitching skills are that great being coders either, commercial flair and C# don't usually go hand in hand.
If i was going to sit down and say "time to make a new mmorpg", i would go down the route of gathering a group of friends or acquitances, put some concept work together, put the game out there and get some volunteer contributions (Like that game Infinity do, not sure where they are with that game). Development time? Several years.
Once you have a very basic game together, then you have something tangible to get investment for....but you would need the figures to back it up and i personally don't know where you would get those figures showing sandbox games making a tidy profit (for an investor)
Investors gamble every day so to say they don't like it is just plain wrong. Investing essentially implies gambling with your money. We, as a capitolistic nation, need people to gamble their money - which is the main reason behind lower taxes for such things like Capital Gains. Those investors give money to people who start companies and drive the economy.
No, it's not that simple but you know...
Blizzard took a huge gamble. Known for rts and made their first mmo, could have been very ugly. Sometimes you need to gamble to make money. They didnt have the experience for mmo's and yet went ahead and made something great. They almost failed their first month with a horrible launch, some games have gone down hill since a bad launch. But they kept going, stuck to their guns and prevailed. Lot of these companies dont. And change to a wow clone or f2p model sson as they see a little trouble. Not trying to fix the game or add content or do what they promised.
No, it's not that simple but you know...
I wouldn't call it a gamble as such, i would compare it to a gamble after getting a tip from someone in the bookmakers.
The investors will be given revenue forecast, concept work, detailed business plans, the lot. Yes, they gamble on the fact that the dev team may be talking crap, but they won't put a penny down until they see alot of figures and proof that the concept can work.
The gamble is not picking that dev team who cannot finish the project, but the clever investor does his research.