More Than 1.7 Million Active Subscribers 2/1/12 [EA Conf Call Discussion Thread]

Rocketeer

Originally posted by maskedweasel

Again, remember the break even target is under 500K subscribers... and 500K is profitable, which are numbers straight from EA again... so I guess it would really be an issue when they start to mention those numbers.. -- To investors at least -- so, if you think 1.7 million is a lie...  and investors should be wary (they are investors, you don't think they're wary?)  unless its well under 500K in your opinion... I don't think its any cause for investor alarm at this point.

Break even is misleading without saying for how long you need to retain those 500k subscribers, 500k subs for 5 years is an altogether different beast than 500k subs for a single month ...

Also does break even mean no money lost if the game is in maintenance mode, or does break even mean no money lost with a full devteam actively working on free content and fixing stuff? Knowing EA, im going with the former, they are quick about putting games in maintenance mode and talking about break even is always a worstcase scenario meaning your working really hard to mitigate your losses.

 

Valua

Originally posted by ZizouX

.....

 

Official market watch and financial reports by EA are lies.... This game is dying and everyone knows it.  All you need to read is the xfire numbers.  I get my info from xfire.. not these "official" market reports.   

 

The writer of the article is obviously on the take.....and if anyong doesn't think so, you're naive to say the least.

 

It's too hard to tell if you're being sarcastic or not?

 

On the off chance that you are being serious (I've also heard people estimate player bases from Xfire stats before) then you are clearly mistaken.

 

Less than a quarter of MMO'ers actually use Xfire, so any information from there is useless, or at least very, very far from accurate. 

MartinZ

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-beats-targets-on-sales-gain-forecast-off-2012-02-01?link=MW_story_featstor

"now has about 1.7 million active subscribers playing the online multiplayer title, which Brown said represents a mix of users who already have signed up for a paid subscription and users who have given their credit cards over, but have not yet had their paid plans kick in."

There you have it.

The actual current subscribers who have actually paid and not just entered their credit card information must be absolutely awful if they won't state the number in public.

 

sanosukex

Originally posted by omome

I find it funny that so many people have to try to refute these numbers when it would be more realistic just to point out that until the population starts growing, downhill is the only way to go.

and every graph I can find that tracks server status or game hours shows a steady population decline just like many predicted and what happens with almost all MMOs http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

RizelStar

Originally posted by ktanner3

So we finally got some real numbers

• 
  2 million bought it.
• 
  1.7 subscribed

So much for the game going F2P after the first month.

It'll never go F2P, look at Warhammer...

 

If anything it might go B2P which would be awesome but eh well.

dubyahite

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by omome

I find it funny that so many people have to try to refute these numbers when it would be more realistic just to point out that until the population starts growing, downhill is the only way to go.

and every graph I can find that tracks server status or game hours shows a steady population decline just like many predicted and what happens with almost all MMOs http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

Except those don't show a population decline. They show a concurrency decline and a decline in the average number of hours played.  

 

The data does not apply to subscriptions.  

 

 

sanosukex

Originally posted by MartinZ

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-beats-targets-on-sales-gain-forecast-off-2012-02-01?link=MW_story_featstor

"now has about 1.7 million active subscribers playing the online multiplayer title, which Brown said represents a mix of users who already have signed up for a paid subscription and users who have given their credit cards over, but have not yet had their paid plans kick in."

There you have it.

 

who would of thought...

red_cruiser

Originally posted by MartinZ

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-beats-targets-on-sales-gain-forecast-off-2012-02-01?link=MW_story_featstor

"now has about 1.7 million active subscribers playing the online multiplayer title, which Brown said represents a mix of users who already have signed up for a paid subscription and users who have given their credit cards over, but have not yet had their paid plans kick in."

There you have it.

The actual current subscribers who have actually paid and not just entered their credit card information must be absolutely awful if they won't state the number in public.

 

Now it makes sense.

Rocketeer

Originally posted by ktanner3

So we finally got some real numbers

• 
  2 million bought it.
• 
  1.7 subscribed

So much for the game going F2P after the first month.

EA doesn't do F2P, so that prediction was stupid to start with.

They are still charging a sub for UO, DaoC and Warhammer. The most they ever did was the level based free trial on WH instead of a timebased one.

ZizouX

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by omome

I find it funny that so many people have to try to refute these numbers when it would be more realistic just to point out that until the population starts growing, downhill is the only way to go.

and every graph I can find that tracks server status or game hours shows a steady population decline just like many predicted and what happens with almost all MMOs http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

Population decline can mean people don't play as much as the first week, but it doesn't mean they cancelled their account.

 

I played 25 hours a week the first two weeks, then that caught up with me and with work.. past 3 days I havn't played at all, but I plan on playing 3-4 hours tonight.

 

The numbers confirm that people are playing less, (as expected) but they havn't moved onto to another subscribed game.

sanosukex

Originally posted by dubyahite

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by omome

I find it funny that so many people have to try to refute these numbers when it would be more realistic just to point out that until the population starts growing, downhill is the only way to go.

and every graph I can find that tracks server status or game hours shows a steady population decline just like many predicted and what happens with almost all MMOs http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

Except those don't show a population decline. They show a concurrency decline and a decline in the average number of hours played.  

 

The data does not apply to subscriptions.  

 

 

this site isn't xfire it doesn't track hours it just tracks server status.. now what those numbers mean is another thing but people like to claim because there server is FULL it must be packed with people.. well you can see here most servers have gone light so take it how you want

maskedweasel

Originally posted by Rocketeer

Originally posted by maskedweasel

Again, remember the break even target is under 500K subscribers... and 500K is profitable, which are numbers straight from EA again... so I guess it would really be an issue when they start to mention those numbers.. -- To investors at least -- so, if you think 1.7 million is a lie...  and investors should be wary (they are investors, you don't think they're wary?)  unless its well under 500K in your opinion... I don't think its any cause for investor alarm at this point.

Break even is misleading without saying for how long you need to retain those 500k subscribers, 500k subs for 5 years is an altogether different beast than 500k subs for a single month ...

Also does break even mean no money lost if the game is in maintenance mode, or does break even mean no money lost with a full devteam actively working on free content and fixing stuff? Knowing EA, im going with the former, they are quick about putting games in maintenance mode and talking about break even is always a worstcase scenario meaning your working really hard to mitigate your losses.

 

No timeframe was given, true, but again 500K was also profitable.. is it profitable on what scale?  BioWare has already mentioned they have cut no staff.  However people want to balance it,  the information listed is all the information we have.. people are interpreting it however they want,  and thats fine,  theres still a lot of information we don't have..  and likely won't have.  Whats the point of all of this is the question... it isn't going to make the game suddenly better if the results are true.. it won't make them worse if they aren't true... 

 

 

ktanner3

Originally posted by MartinZ

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-beats-targets-on-sales-gain-forecast-off-2012-02-01?link=MW_story_featstor

"now has about 1.7 million active subscribers playing the online multiplayer title, which Brown said represents a mix of users who already have signed up for a paid subscription and users who have given their credit cards over, but have not yet had their paid plans kick in."

There you have it.

 

Now that's a far more interesting thing to focus on. We'll know for sure when the next report comes in. All I know is that my local best buy and wal mart are always keeping the shelves stocked with boxes. I'll know the games starting to nose dive when the box count gets lower to the point that only one box is kept there. That's exactly what happened to both AOC and Warhammer. WOW always has about five boxes and it has been that way for years.

dubyahite

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by dubyahite

Originally posted by sanosukex

Originally posted by omome

I find it funny that so many people have to try to refute these numbers when it would be more realistic just to point out that until the population starts growing, downhill is the only way to go.

and every graph I can find that tracks server status or game hours shows a steady population decline just like many predicted and what happens with almost all MMOs http://www.torstatus.net/shards/us/trends

Except those don't show a population decline. They show a concurrency decline and a decline in the average number of hours played.  

 

The data does not apply to subscriptions.  

 

 

this site isn't xfire it doesn't track hours it just tracks server status.. now what those numbers mean is another thing but people like to claim because there server is FULL it must be packed with people.. well you can see here most servers have gone light so take it how you want

Like i said, that site tracks concurrency,  not subscriptions. 

Warjin

Originally posted by obii

How was their quartr good when they lost a few hundred million ... again

It really not bad at all from a MMO standpoint, so 300k did not resub but 1.7 did, not counting all the other new players that will buy game over the course of time, EA makes $60 from each box sold and $15 a month from the subed so lets do some math.

 

2 million sold @ $60 a pop (not counting CE, just the standard) = $120 million from units alone

1.7 resubed paying $15 a month =$25.5 million a month

Not bad at all if you ask me, there are still people that will buy the game, some that may resub, some that will unsub, over all the game is growing faster then it is losing subs so from a business standpoint this is a success.

Rocketeer

Originally posted by Valua

Originally posted by ZizouX

.....

 

Official market watch and financial reports by EA are lies.... This game is dying and everyone knows it.  All you need to read is the xfire numbers.  I get my info from xfire.. not these "official" market reports.   

 

The writer of the article is obviously on the take.....and if anyong doesn't think so, you're naive to say the least.

 

It's too hard to tell if you're being sarcastic or not?

 

On the off chance that you are being serious (I've also heard people estimate player bases from Xfire stats before) then you are clearly mistaken.

 

Less than a quarter of MMO'ers actually use Xfire, so any information from there is useless, or at least very, very far from accurate. 

Xfire actually confirms these numbers pretty much. It only tracks western players and shows WoW having about 2.5x as many players atm. So if you accept that WoW has around 4-5 mil players in the western market ...

Hrotha

How many people are fat on this planet? Not inherent, because of sloth, because of misbehave? How many people have bad taste? I know taste is an individual thing, but how many people can not judge things non-subjective on this planet?

I still want to figure out what the OP wants to say.

sanosukex

Originally posted by ktanner3

Originally posted by MartinZ

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-beats-targets-on-sales-gain-forecast-off-2012-02-01?link=MW_story_featstor

"now has about 1.7 million active subscribers playing the online multiplayer title, which Brown said represents a mix of users who already have signed up for a paid subscription and users who have given their credit cards over, but have not yet had their paid plans kick in."

There you have it.

 

Now that's a far more interesting thing to focus on. We'll know for sure when the next report comes in. All I know is that my local best buy and wal mart are always keeping the shelves stocked with boxes. I'll know the games starting to nose dive when the box count gets lower to the point that only one box is kept there. That's exactly what happened to both AOC and Warhammer. WOW always has about five boxes and it has been that way for years.

lol yea I noticed this also walking through best buy in the past seeing how many boxes of new MMOs were out and a few months later its down to just a couple on the shelf.

Warjin

Originally posted by Lexin

Originally posted by monoth

Originally posted by Lexin

Originally posted by monoth

Originally posted by Lexin

All I got from this is they sold 2 million copies... And there was 1.7 million people who used their free 30 days. I highly doubt there is 1.7 million paying subs at this very moment. Don't forget you need to setup a sub in order to use the 30 free days.

 

So 300k people didn't use their free month?!?  WTF are you talking about?    It's pretty obvious that 2 million bought the game and after the free 30 days was up 1.7 million subscribed for another month.  Learn to read

 

You can't subscribe for another month if the 30 free days are not even up how about you learn to read. I have seen posts about people holding on to their copies and not being able to use because they don't have a credit card. Again YOU MUST SETUP A SUB IN ORDER TO PLAY YOU'RE 30 FREE DAYS!!!!!!!!

Show me the proof that 300k people didn't subscribed to the game and just stuck it on their shelf to collect dust...  Not to mention you don't need a credit card, you can buy a game card...

 

Practice what you preach and show me 1.7 million active subscibers.

EA just has, I'm sorry but the numbers don't lie, they can not lie on a report like this if they do that means jail time, sure reviews can lie but not on a market share report.

moreblahblah

Those number were accurate as of 31 December. What it is telling you is that over 300,000 people canceled their ACTIVE subscription  between the 20th of December and the 31 st December. So in effect SWTOR lost 300,000+ subs over an 11 day period.

Some of you seem to have problems with the difference between having a subscription and having an active supscription. Having a subscription means you can log in and play but does not actually mean you have a credit card on file with authorization for billing. Having an ACTIVE subscription means  you have a credit card on file and have authorized future billing.

Sorry fanbois, SWTOR is tanking.

Lexin

Originally posted by Warjin

Originally posted by Lexin

Originally posted by monoth

Originally posted by Lexin

Originally posted by monoth

Originally posted by Lexin

All I got from this is they sold 2 million copies... And there was 1.7 million people who used their free 30 days. I highly doubt there is 1.7 million paying subs at this very moment. Don't forget you need to setup a sub in order to use the 30 free days.

 

So 300k people didn't use their free month?!?  WTF are you talking about?    It's pretty obvious that 2 million bought the game and after the free 30 days was up 1.7 million subscribed for another month.  Learn to read

 

You can't subscribe for another month if the 30 free days are not even up how about you learn to read. I have seen posts about people holding on to their copies and not being able to use because they don't have a credit card. Again YOU MUST SETUP A SUB IN ORDER TO PLAY YOU'RE 30 FREE DAYS!!!!!!!!

Show me the proof that 300k people didn't subscribed to the game and just stuck it on their shelf to collect dust...  Not to mention you don't need a credit card, you can buy a game card...

 

Practice what you preach and show me 1.7 million active subscibers.

EA just has, I'm sorry but the numbers don't lie, they can not lie on a report like this if they do that means jail time, sure reviews can lie but not on a market share report.

Considering that was as of 12/31/12 no it does not. Please try again.

revy66

Originally posted by MartinZ

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-beats-targets-on-sales-gain-forecast-off-2012-02-01?link=MW_story_featstor

"now has about 1.7 million active subscribers playing the online multiplayer title, which Brown said represents a mix of users who already have signed up for a paid subscription and users who have given their credit cards over, but have not yet had their paid plans kick in."

There you have it.

The actual current subscribers who have actually paid and not just entered their credit card information must be absolutely awful if they won't state the number in public.

 

That's interesting. I guess nothing will be clear until the next report. Btw all the numbers posted in their report were for Q4 2011.

sanosukex

Originally posted by Warjin

Practice what you preach and show me 1.7 million active subscibers.

EA just has, I'm sorry but the numbers don't lie, they can not lie on a report like this if they do that means jail time, sure reviews can lie but not on a market share report.

did you just miss this posted right above?

The company launched “Star Wars” in late December, and reported it has sold through more than 2 million units of the game and now has about 1.7 million active subscribers playing the online multiplayer title, which Brown said represents a mix of users who already have signed up for a paid subscription and users who have given their credit cards over, but have not yet had their paid plans kick in.

Rocketeer

Originally posted by maskedweasel

No timeframe was given, true, but again 500K was also profitable.. is it profitable on what scale?  BioWare has already mentioned they have cut no staff.  However people want to balance it,  the information listed is all the information we have.. people are interpreting it however they want,  and thats fine,  theres still a lot of information we don't have..  and likely won't have.  Whats the point of all of this is the question... it isn't going to make the game suddenly better if the results are true.. it won't make them worse if they aren't true... 

 

I disagree, if they where untrue, which i do not believe but just for arguments sake ... They could very well mean a cutting of staff further down the road, which might very well make the game worse. It could even mean they try a NGE to "save" the game.

Zekiah

Originally posted by MartinZ

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ea-beats-targets-on-sales-gain-forecast-off-2012-02-01?link=MW_story_featstor

"now has about 1.7 million active subscribers playing the online multiplayer title, which Brown said represents a mix of users who already have signed up for a paid subscription and users who have given their credit cards over, but have not yet had their paid plans kick in."

There you have it.

The actual current subscribers who have actually paid and not just entered their credit card information must be absolutely awful if they won't state the number in public.

 

Unreal. So, they're counting people who signed up and quit as "active subscribers" lol. That number has to be pretty large but whatever, just another day in corporate America.