Question, no flaming. Facts.

tristanryan

Simple question, wondering if i can get some assistance;

 

Game Release Early Access; December 15th.

Full Live Release; December 20th.

Free 30 days start time; Decemeber 22nd.  (which means ending free time, January 22nd, 2012.)

Ending of marketwatch q4 report, December 31st, 2011. (game live for 11 days, total)

 

 

So, if SWTOR has sold over 2 million copies, how do only 1.7 register to actually play. Given the fact that when the Marketwatch %s are taken, only 11 days of gametime have taken place. Unless they never even entered the game at all, something just doesnt add up.

 

To even get the free 30 days, you must enter payment information. Clearly, thats exactly where this 1.7 million is from per marketwatch/bioware. What happened to the other 300k? As of december 31st, they are still paying, playing members that have at least entered CC info.

 

My question is, how am i the only person that finds this shady and completely unbelievable? I have played the game. I have hit max level twice on two seperate servers. I see threads 50+ pages long begging, absolutely begging for server merges. Threads of people and even my own expereiences of the absolutely awful gameplay and issues the game has. I have stood on fleet during prime time day after day with less than 50 players TOTAL. ON THE FLEET.

 

Given these facts, how can these numbers be accurate. Please. Can anyone explain?

Given my age, life has taught me one thing. If something sounds so outlandish its hard to believe, its probably 100% american corporate bullshit. Every single time.

dubyahite

Because the 1.7 million is current, not up to Dec 31st.

On de 31st everyone was a subscriber so there wouldn't be a drop of people that unsubbed.

Bioware already confirm this.

tristanryan

Originally posted by dubyahite

Because the 1.7 million is current, not up to Dec 31st.



On de 31st everyone was a subscriber so there wouldn't be a drop of people that unsubbed.



Bioware already confirm this.

 

 

This has to be false. Per the article.

 

Seriously.

jpnz

 

Given the title I am wondering why you are showing your lack of objectivity.

 

This isn't a 'fact' nor is it 'clear' that's what the figures are from.

To even get the free 30 days, you must enter payment information. Clearly, thats exactly where this 1.7 million is from per marketwatch/bioware. What happened to the other 300k? 

 

And your personal experience is relevant because???

I have stood on fleet during prime time day after day with less than 50 players TOTAL. ON THE FLEET.

 

 

If you want 'facts' deal with the facts you currently have, like the EA financial statements.

 

edit1: although i think you are trolling. What you 'believe' is irrelevant cause what you believe isn't a factual.

Zolgar

2 million copies sold, and only 1.7 million registered by the time the quarter ended? Perhaps, for whatever reason 300k people were waiting?

dubyahite

It's more than 300k that have quit.

If you go by VGChartz they have sold 2.5 to 2.8 million (counting 40% digital that EA claimed)

This is actually about 60% retention, which is in line with the industry standard for this type of mmo.

tristanryan

Originally posted by jpnz

 

Given the title I am wondering why you are showing your lack of objectivity.

 

This isn't a 'fact' nor is it 'clear' that's what the figures are from.

To even get the free 30 days, you must enter payment information. Clearly, thats exactly where this 1.7 million is from per marketwatch/bioware. What happened to the other 300k? 

 

And your personal experience is relevant because???

I have stood on fleet during prime time day after day with less than 50 players TOTAL. ON THE FLEET.

 

 

If you want 'facts' deal with the facts you currently have, like the EA financial statements.

 

 

Thats my issue. The EA financial statements dont make any sense. Also, before you flame.. check around the web. Im not the only person wondering about these numbers and im not referring to MMORPG.com either.

 

dubyahite

Like I said, they specifically said this doesn't count people who have cancelled their accounts and that number is current.

Believe what you want, but you asked for facts.

By my estimate they have lost nearly a million people.

MartinZ

EA is most likely reporting 'sell through' like Microsoft does as sold to stores and not like Nintendo and Sony does where they report actual 'sold to customer' numbers.

300k would be the number of units not yet sold.

NPD reported about 550k for December. Double that for Europe. Add 40 percent or so for online sales and you are close to 1.7 million.

And since EA forces you to enter your credit card and start a subscription even if you plan on or eventually do cancel in the first month, that is where the 1.7 million active subs would come from.

dubyahite

Sell through is actually units sold to customers, not stores. Look it up.

tristanryan

Originally posted by dubyahite

Like I said, they specifically said this doesn't count people who have cancelled their accounts and that number is current.



Believe what you want, but you asked for facts.



By my estimate they have lost nearly a million people.

 

So even by your "estimates" not counting my own opinion.

 

Losing "nearly a million" within the first 30 days of release, once again, if your "estimates" are correct. You think this is a success?

 

Truely, as a personal question regarding your opinion;

Do you truely believe even half of the *current* population will stay subscribed? (my guess, if you care is about 500,000 total. Laugh all you like. I believe there are quite a few sith that started early are in full battlemaster now and of course they will hang around a while and enjoy the ownage, but thats about it.)

Im sorry bro im not trolling, at least not on purpose, i just CANNOT see or even FATHOM people accepting this pile of junk as a MMORPG. Discounting the fact that in my opinion the game is total shit, do you really see or feel this as a "mmorpg"?

Ive played every single game released since EQ for the PC. (well, multiplayer that is) Im talking on a scale of i have cubbards and cubbards of games here and there. There has only been one mmo released in my life that i didnt hand over the first 15 bucks and thats SWTOR.

I got more enjoyment out of Earthrise. (and my ass still puckers for buying that P.O.S)

MartinZ

Originally posted by dubyahite

Sell through is actually units sold to customers, not stores. Look it up.

 

Nope. Microsoft uses 'sell through' that is in reality sold to retail. A cheap way to inflate sales numbers.

Nintendo and Sony both swtiched in 2006 to reporting actual sales to customers.

Just like the word 'beta' has a very specific meaning in software development, but game companies often use the term to mean something very different.

dubyahite

Ok, my estimates are based on Vgchartz sales numbers plus the claimed 40% digital. A little shaky but the best numbers we have.

Base on those numbers I also believe that about 300k are on their free month. So around 1.4 million payed subs.

I didn't say I thought that meant it was successful, only time will tell.

But since you asked, any mmo with 1.4 million paying subs is pretty freaking successful I'd say. Only wow is better at this time.

I they maintain that level, then yes it's very successful.

jpnz

Originally posted by tristanryan

Originally posted by jpnz

 

Given the title I am wondering why you are showing your lack of objectivity.

 

This isn't a 'fact' nor is it 'clear' that's what the figures are from.

To even get the free 30 days, you must enter payment information. Clearly, thats exactly where this 1.7 million is from per marketwatch/bioware. What happened to the other 300k? 

 

And your personal experience is relevant because???

I have stood on fleet during prime time day after day with less than 50 players TOTAL. ON THE FLEET.

 

 

If you want 'facts' deal with the facts you currently have, like the EA financial statements.

 

 

Thats my issue. The EA financial statements dont make any sense. Also, before you flame.. check around the web. Im not the only person wondering about these numbers and im not referring to MMORPG.com either.

 

As someone who has his own portfolio and does shares, numbers do add up. Roughly. Have no desire to delve too deeply as it isn't a company I have an interest in but the overall largish stuff looks fine.

Biggest indicator is that no one that actually works in the financial sector are raising an eyebrow over this, all of them are psuedo-i-have-no-idea types.

smh_alot

@OP: How many people you saw on your server for your faction isn't really relevant for the topic and question you're presenting. Regarding facts:

They have sold over 2 million.

They have currently 1.7 million active subscribers, those that are in their paying 2nd month and those that are still in their free month combined.

They have on average 1 million unique daily account logins.

If that's too unbelievable to you, that cannot be helped I guess. Comparing TOR's sales and retention figures with other MMO launches like Rift and Aion 1-1.5 month after launch, it isn't that hard to believe that TOR has like double the amount of subs and player activity that an Aion or Rift had, which makes the 1.7 million not that far out-of-place at all for this particular point after launch.

Daitengu

Originally posted by tristanryan

Simple question, wondering if i can get some assistance;

 

Game Release Early Access; December 15th.

Full Live Release; December 20th.

Free 30 days start time; Decemeber 22nd.  (which means ending free time, January 22nd, 2012.)

Ending of marketwatch q4 report, December 31st, 2011. (game live for 11 days, total)

 

 

So, if SWTOR has sold over 2 million copies, how do only 1.7 register to actually play. Given the fact that when the Marketwatch %s are taken, only 11 days of gametime have taken place. Unless they never even entered the game at all, something just doesnt add up.

 

To even get the free 30 days, you must enter payment information. Clearly, thats exactly where this 1.7 million is from per marketwatch/bioware. What happened to the other 300k? As of december 31st, they are still paying, playing members that have at least entered CC info.

 

My question is, how am i the only person that finds this shady and completely unbelievable? I have played the game. I have hit max level twice on two seperate servers. I see threads 50+ pages long begging, absolutely begging for server merges. Threads of people and even my own expereiences of the absolutely awful gameplay and issues the game has. I have stood on fleet during prime time day after day with less than 50 players TOTAL. ON THE FLEET.

 

Given these facts, how can these numbers be accurate. Please. Can anyone explain?

Given my age, life has taught me one thing. If something sounds so outlandish its hard to believe, its probably 100% american corporate bullshit. Every single time.

Well, I wonder what % of sold copies are christmas presents that were returned, never used, or if EA even counts game cards. With that in mind it's reasonable to guess that a chunk of sold is not listed as subs. This is assuming that the report is not counting resub from jan 22nd.

 

As for your game population question. It really depends on perception.  Most of SWTOR is instanced so you won't see tons of people everywhere. Then there's also like 10 empire to 1 republic on some servers.  On my server there's tons of emps everywhere(takes forever to load up in fleet), but when I roll repub, I "might" see someone within 10 minutes time on fleet.

tristanryan

Originally posted by dubyahite

Ok, my estimates are based on Vgchartz sales numbers plus the claimed 40% digital. A little shaky but the best numbers we have.



Base on those numbers I also believe that about 300k are on their free month. So around 1.4 million payed subs.



I didn't say I thought that meant it was successful, only time will tell.



But since you asked, any mmo with 1.4 million paying subs is pretty freaking successful I'd say. Only wow is better at this time.



I they maintain that level, then yes it's very successful.

 

Of course my friend.

 

But do YOU believe they will "maintain" that number?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I dont.

dubyahite

Ok Martin, since you didnt take my advice and look it up, here you go:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sell-through

In publishing, sell-through refers to a percentage of units shipped which are actually sold. In the case of books, the rest is returned to the publisher. Other items, such as software, are usually discounted.

Sell-through is always expressed as a percentage. Net sales essentially refers to the same thing, in absolute numbers.



And yes, the marketwatch thing said sell through.

Laughing-man

Originally posted by tristanryan

Originally posted by dubyahite

Because the 1.7 million is current, not up to Dec 31st.



On de 31st everyone was a subscriber so there wouldn't be a drop of people that unsubbed.



Bioware already confirm this.

 

 

This has to be false. Per the article.

 

Seriously.

From what I've read sure the Q3 ended on the 31st however their conference call says as of the conference call...

Q: Are these 1.7 subscribers paying?

A: Active subscribers means anyone paying or in their trial period. Most of those 1.7m are paying at this point

Is from today, the conference call they made today... So you are suggesting that they are using the data from the Q1 to answer the question?   When he says "at this point" in his answer?  

Please if this is untrue I'd love to see links and sources.

MartinZ

Originally posted by dubyahite

Ok Martin, since you didnt take my advice and look it up, here you go:



http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sell-through



In publishing, sell-through refers to a percentage of units shipped which are actually sold. In the case of books, the rest is returned to the publisher. Other items, such as software, are usually discounted.



Sell-through is always expressed as a percentage. Net sales essentially refers to the same thing, in absolute numbers.







And yes, the marketwatch thing said sell through.



 

Yeah, great. A Wikipedia link. Why don't you go look up what Beta actually means in software development and then compare it to how it is used in reality.

I've already give an example of Microsoft using sell through differently than Nintendo and Sony to help inflate their sales numbers. Are they in big trouble? LOL

dubyahite

Ok Martin. Here you go:

http://retail.about.com/od/retailglossarys/g/sell-through.htm

http://practicalstockinvesting.com/category/vocabulary/sell-in-and-sell-through/


http://oald8.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/dictionary/sell-through


http://www.acceleratedanalytics.com/blogcontent/calculating-sell-through.html

http://www.wordnik.com/words/sell-through



Got any links to back up your wild claims? Didn't think so.

dubyahite

Oh op I just notice you mentioned earthrise.

Haha. I was there at launch man and if you enjoyed that crapfest more than tor, then you are clearly not part of the tor target market.

MartinZ

Here is the proper definition of Alpha, Beta, etc in regards to software development:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_release_life_cycle

OMG! Companies are calling their products 'Beta' improperly! Somebody call Wambulance!

Welcome to the Real World.

 

smh_alot

Originally posted by dubyahite

Ok Martin. Here you go:

http://retail.about.com/od/retailglossarys/g/sell-through.htm

http://practicalstockinvesting.com/category/vocabulary/sell-in-and-sell-through/


http://oald8.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/dictionary/sell-through


http://www.acceleratedanalytics.com/blogcontent/calculating-sell-through.html

http://www.wordnik.com/words/sell-through



Got any links to back up your wild claims? Didn't think so.

If I were you, I'd just give it a rest. The guy you were making all this effort for isn't really interested in all that. From all of his posts it's obvious that he'll never believe that the game has sold over 2 million copies to customers no matter what, and will always keep convinced that the game has already gotten as empty and dead as a charnel house and that there never can be over a million people playing it since everyone is leaving en masse. Kind of a wishful thinking thing, I guess.

If you read that other thread about how bad a successful TOR is for the MMO industry, it's even more obvious that for some people TOR really need to fail in their eyes for the games that they like to be developed and prosper. It isn't about facts anymore, but becomes more of an ideology thing: they'll never like or accept TOR and what it stands for, therefor it has to fail and all positive news be discredited.

As for the OP, if you can't believe that TOR has those sales and retention numbers, just give it a few more months and see if then it'll be more in line with your expectations.

dubyahite

Beta? Thought we were talking about sell through.

Anyways, your link doesn't prove anything.

"Beta (named after the second letter of the Greek alphabet) is the software development phase following alpha. It generally begins when the software is feature complete. Software in the beta phase will generally have many more bugs in it than completed software, as well as speed/performance issues. The focus of beta testing is reducing impacts to users, often incorporating usability testing. The process of delivering a beta version to the users is called beta release and this is typically the first time that the software is available outside of the organization that developed it."


Sounds like an Mmo beta to me.



Beyond that, what the hell does that have todo with sell through?!???

dubyahite

Smh_alot, you're right I know.


I just like to counter baseless misinformation and untruths around here.

It's less about convincing the poster that they are wrong (impossible most times) and more about providing actual facts for anyone who might happen to read their posts and not know any better.


I guess I shouldn't worry so much about it.