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Why inflation really happens

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  • fenistilfenistil Member Posts: 3,005

    Why inflation happens in mmorpg's?

     

    That's very simple.

     

    Supply of gold = unlimited  - new gold appear in game world constanty (through mobs , quest givers, etc) 

     

    Gold disappearing = very limited - usually just repair fees at NPC's

     

    +

     

    No item loss - items are indestructable - so players are ready to pay insane amount of gold for any even slightly better thing

     

    +

     

    "Game" give away 95% of needed things - all or almost all best armors ,weapons, mounts ,etc are given by NPC's / got in instances -  so only thing you can spent gold is consumeables + eventually crafted gear for so called "levelling".

     

    =

     

    HUGE INFLATION

     

     

    Seriosuly this is how those game are designed.  No way aorund it with current mmorpg design.

     

    There is one game that don't have much inflation (at least anymore) - there are / were even price drops = EvE Online.

     

    Pre-NGE SWG also had inflation under relative control - when NGE changes hit after some time inflation got insanely high though , highest inflation I've seen in any mmorpg :/

  • thinktank001thinktank001 Member UncommonPosts: 2,144

    Originally posted by someforumguy

    I don't know how to lower the accumulating of gold in many MMO's, but you can battle price inflation on the auction hall though. As long as you have an influx of new players anyway. But the AH needs to work different then in many games.

    One of the problems with auction houses in games is that you can't really see what the demand is for certain items. You can only look at what is being offered. The actual demand can only be guessed about. If you don't see a certain item listed, you can only guess (especially as new player) if this is because it is highly in demand or not at all.

    Another problem with the buyout system (I'm not talking about putting up an item for actual auction without buyout price) in most games, is that you cannot lower/raise the price directly without cancelling the offer.  This causes certain problems with price competition. If you just happen to play outside prime time and you want to sell something that isn't offered atm on the AH, you are in a disadvantage to the person that puts the same item up for sale just after you. This is not real price competition. You should be able to adapt your buyout price any time so that if needed both sellers can lower their price to the minimum they want.

    Auction houses also need a function for players to place an ad. To post what they are looking for and what price they offer for it. Or being able to offer services. Without this players might stop looking for their desired item on the AH if it is never shown. Or players assume that certain items will not sell.

    This is all needed to battle the price inflation due to players that have accumulated so much gold that they don't care anymore about low or high prices. AH's need to work in a way to support actual price competition.

     

     

    It has been a long time since I played FFXI, but I think their AH offers the best solution ( or they did ).  Buyers and sellers couldn't see current prices, but only the price of previously sold items.   The AH also gave priortity to items that were set at lower prices.

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,509

    "Spiral Knights has an inflation problem though. While it isn't necessarily as bad as most MMOs, CE prices have almost doubled in the past month. Considering CE is the single most important item in the game, that's a pretty big deal."

    CE prices go up and CE prices go down.  What are the prices there these days, anyway?  I've seen them double before and I've seen them fall by half before.  I've heard that the all time high was over 20k.  Are you back into that range yet?

    My intuition is that the long term trend on CE prices is upward.  But it's not a simple analysis to get that.  And the long term trend on materials seems to be downward.

    -----

    "if the person understands exponential growth they wouldn't set up an artificial leveling system which increases money earned in that manner. you could use slightly more complex math to make the rewards deminish based on 'pride'."

    That depends on whether you're trying to ward off inflation or not.  Most games aren't, for the reasons given in the original post fo this thread.

    "even with exponential growth exponential cost could be used to deplete coffers."

    Not really.  If early on, you make 2 gold and have costs of 1 gold, that leaves you 1 gold in disposable income.  If later on, you make 200 gold and have 100 gold in costs, that leaves you 100 gold in disposable income.  Guess what happens to prices?

    If your goal is to keep disposable income constant, then that's not a smart thing to try.  If early on, you make 2 gold and have costs of 1 gold, and the game designers are off a bit on either of the numbers, it doesn't matter much.  If later on, you're supposed to make 100 gold and have costs of 99 gold, and the company was off by 2% on one of those numbers, then either you make three times what you should or you lose money.  Farming becomes mainly about finding the places where the company was off by several percent in your direction, and then becomes vastly more profitable than just playing the game normally, to the degree that the latter becomes unviable.

    "that wouldn't likely work since you would still be effected by gear and abbilities."

    Spiral Knights does scale down your gear.  It sounds like you're not familiar with the game.  In Spiral Knights, you don't even have "levels", really.  All you have is gear.

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,509

    Originally posted by InFaVilla

    What is the difference between  a population on average earning 3 times as much  (per unit time) as normal due to significantely higher farming activity compared to fighting "better" mobs? Assuming the mobs and farming session only yields gold, the end result is the same: 3 times as high gold income compared to the previous status quo.

    Two differences:  one is that if it's due to farming, then it was likely present even on launch day.  It never accounts for an increase in prices at all, as the prices that otherwise would have existed are never seen.

    More importantly, it's not repeatable.  Even if farming does cause prices to triple at some point, that's just a temporary blip in inflation.  If farming causes prices to triple, then triple again, then triple yet again, that means that before the first time, farming wasn't offering any advantage over normal gameplay.  After the third time, farming is getting you gold 27 times as fast as normal gameplay.  That tends not to happen, even in games that don't care about inflation.

    On the other hand, if it's caused by new content, then you can easily have prices double one year, then double again the next year, then again the year after that, and repeat for every single year until the company pulls the plug, or at least stops adding new content.

  • RequiamerRequiamer Member Posts: 2,034

    For me they are 3 main reason for inflation in game or should i say super hyper inflation, hyper inflation is more what we are seeing now in our real life economy but whatever. Well i'll add a 4th one that is not obvious but yet a main source of inflation in most mmos i played, so it still need to be pointed.

    Anyway the 4 main reasons for me are
     
    1- no item consumption, and this is the most important, no gold disappear like ever if item don't vanish
     
    2- endless gold source by farming (ye i think gold sink are a ridiculous way to deal with the problem when item consumption is the natural way to do it, but whatever)
     
    3-level base design. If you make 100time more gold at max level than at level1 how the fuck could you not get inflation?
     
    4-dupe/hack/bots. Some dupe have killed some mmo economy in a matter of days, in fact i don't recall a mmo that wasn't duped to death at one point or an other. Those duping session had always created a great deal of inflation.

    But for me the lack of item consumption is clearly the reason N°1, and gold sink just can't come even close to what item consumption is in a real economy.
     

  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Member RarePosts: 14,247

    Originally posted by Requiamer

    For me they are 3 main reason for inflation in game or should i say super hyper inflation, hyper inflation is more what we are seeing now in our real life economy but whatever. Well i'll add a 4th one that is not obvious but yet a main source of inflation in most mmos i played, so it still need to be pointed.

    Anyway the 4 main reasons for me are

     

    1- no item consumption, and this is the most important, no gold disappear like ever if item don't vanish

     

    2- endless gold source by farming (ye i think gold sink are a ridiculous way to deal with the problem when item consumption is the natural way to do it, but whatever)

     

    3-level base design. If you make 100time more gold at max level than at level1 how the fuck could you not get inflation?

     

    4-dupe/hack/bots. Some dupe have killed some mmo economy in a matter of days, in fact i don't recall a mmo that wasn't duped to death at one point or an other. Those duping session had always created a great deal of inflation.

    But for me the lack of item consumption is clearly the reason N°1, and gold sink just can't come even close to what item consumption is in a real economy.

     

    On the issue of duping, most game economies quickly recover from it once it is resolved. There are very few that really suffered long term effects. Check this out for an in-depth look at the impact of one such incident, how it was handled and the data on its effects on prices in the game.

     

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • dave6660dave6660 Member UncommonPosts: 2,699

    Originally posted by thinktank001

    Originally posted by ZBergz

    Let me begin by saying that I always enjoy reading your posts Quizzical as they are consistently well thought out.

     

    My opinion is that having an economy which avoids hyperinflation opens up the possibility for additional forms of gameplay.  That being said.  I believe inflation can be entirely prevented within a game if the proper mechanics are introduced.

    This is how I would build an economy.


    1. Player crafted goods make up the majority or entirety of items outside of raw materials.  Player made goods require destroying a certain amount of game currency during creation in addition to raw material consumption

    2. Items must degrade requiring the destruction of both currency and raw materials in the process of repairing or replacing items.

    3. Player vs Player must exist allowing anyone to take another players currency and goods (I would say all non-soulbound items must be capable of being looted).  This creates a self policing community against farmers.  If you see a bot or crappily geared farmer you can simply kill it/them and receive instant rewards.

    4. Economies should be localized with no auction houses.  Allow players to set up shops.  Force the transportation of goods at some risk between markets allowing for the possibility of great financial rewards at great risk.

    5. Fast travel only allows the player to transport soulbound items with them.  Additionally a large percentage of the currency the player is carrying must be destroyed in the process of teleportation (30-50%).  This effectively prevents players from circumventing the transportation of goods from market to market.

    6. All areas within a game should be level capped with equipment scaling.  This prevents high level players from preying on those of much lower level.  High level equipment scaled down would still be better but only marginally.  The benefit of having equipment which far out paces your current content would come at the price of high repair costs.  Twinking is fine if you have the money to support it.

    7. Regarding new content being added.  I don't see a need to allow the greatly increased loot drops.  The new content itself should be incentive enough to encourage players to use it.  Greater rewards are not necessary and in fact is detrimental to the rest of the game.

    There are probably a few more things I would like to add to this but I have to shower and head off to work.  Please feel free to critique my idea of an economy.


     

     

    What is your basis for number 4?    I definitely agree with localization, but no AH?  

    I thought I might like the idea of not having an auction house until I played a game without it (Lineage 2).  You had to setup your own shop and sell your goods.  That required you to leave your computer running all day and night and not move.  No thanks.  Localized auction houses can work fine (Eve Online).

    “There are certain queer times and occasions in this strange mixed affair we call life when a man takes this whole universe for a vast practical joke, though the wit thereof he but dimly discerns, and more than suspects that the joke is at nobody's expense but his own.”
    -- Herman Melville

  • dave6660dave6660 Member UncommonPosts: 2,699

    Originally posted by Loke666

    The real problem is that the money comes out from nowhere. If you had some kind of closed system, so the money would come from someone you wouldn´t have inflation (but probably other issues).

    To make a game with almost no inflation you would have to make a game that simulates a real economy (in a fantasy MMO based on some historical system).

    Money does not grow on trees and most MMOs kinda works like the Spannish economy did in the 16th century. They suddenly got so much gold from south America that it more or less colapsed.

    But when NPCs also suddenly needs to get profits and even mobs would have to get their gold from something we are talking about a lot of hard work to make a system like that really work. You would probably need a real economist to help you out with that.

    Levels of course doesn´t really help but it would still not work without them, UO had inflation as well.

    The subject is very interesting though. :)

    I don't think a closed system can work in an mmorpg.  Players come and go.  Once a players quits or goes inactive for a long period their stuff would need to be confiscated and recycled back into the system.  That might not go over too well.

    “There are certain queer times and occasions in this strange mixed affair we call life when a man takes this whole universe for a vast practical joke, though the wit thereof he but dimly discerns, and more than suspects that the joke is at nobody's expense but his own.”
    -- Herman Melville

  • fenistilfenistil Member Posts: 3,005

    Originally posted by dave6660

    Originally posted by thinktank001


    Originally posted by ZBergz

    Let me begin by saying that I always enjoy reading your posts Quizzical as they are consistently well thought out.

     

    My opinion is that having an economy which avoids hyperinflation opens up the possibility for additional forms of gameplay.  That being said.  I believe inflation can be entirely prevented within a game if the proper mechanics are introduced.

    This is how I would build an economy.


    1. Player crafted goods make up the majority or entirety of items outside of raw materials.  Player made goods require destroying a certain amount of game currency during creation in addition to raw material consumption

    2. Items must degrade requiring the destruction of both currency and raw materials in the process of repairing or replacing items.

    3. Player vs Player must exist allowing anyone to take another players currency and goods (I would say all non-soulbound items must be capable of being looted).  This creates a self policing community against farmers.  If you see a bot or crappily geared farmer you can simply kill it/them and receive instant rewards.

    4. Economies should be localized with no auction houses.  Allow players to set up shops.  Force the transportation of goods at some risk between markets allowing for the possibility of great financial rewards at great risk.

    5. Fast travel only allows the player to transport soulbound items with them.  Additionally a large percentage of the currency the player is carrying must be destroyed in the process of teleportation (30-50%).  This effectively prevents players from circumventing the transportation of goods from market to market.

    6. All areas within a game should be level capped with equipment scaling.  This prevents high level players from preying on those of much lower level.  High level equipment scaled down would still be better but only marginally.  The benefit of having equipment which far out paces your current content would come at the price of high repair costs.  Twinking is fine if you have the money to support it.

    7. Regarding new content being added.  I don't see a need to allow the greatly increased loot drops.  The new content itself should be incentive enough to encourage players to use it.  Greater rewards are not necessary and in fact is detrimental to the rest of the game.

    There are probably a few more things I would like to add to this but I have to shower and head off to work.  Please feel free to critique my idea of an economy.


     

     

    What is your basis for number 4?    I definitely agree with localization, but no AH?  

    I thought I might like the idea of not having an auction house until I played a game without it (Lineage 2).  You had to setup your own shop and sell your goods.  That required you to leave your computer running all day and night and not move.  No thanks.  Localized auction houses can work fine (Eve Online).

    Not remember how L2 did it but if it was like you said then it was just bad design.

    In Ultima Online you could hire NPC to sell your goods.

    So do't have to have PC running all the time.

    You are logged out and your stuff still get sold. 

    1 NPC per player per server and it is ok.

     

    So don't dismiss whole concept of no AH and player owned shops just cause L2 implemented it badly.

  • dave6660dave6660 Member UncommonPosts: 2,699

    Originally posted by Loktofeit

    Originally posted by Quizzical



     It could also be vendor trash items that sell for more to an NPC vendor. 

    I'd really like to meet the guy that came up with VT/Junk Loot and ask him whether he meant it as a lazy way out or if there was some greater purpose to it. having started MMOs with UO and AC, I always found junk loot to be both annoying and a complete insult.

     

    I agree.  Why put time into creating game items that are useless.  I don't even like the idea of having NPC vendors to buy and sell stuff (except in a very very limited scope).  Let the players control all of it.

    “There are certain queer times and occasions in this strange mixed affair we call life when a man takes this whole universe for a vast practical joke, though the wit thereof he but dimly discerns, and more than suspects that the joke is at nobody's expense but his own.”
    -- Herman Melville

  • DisdenaDisdena Member UncommonPosts: 1,093

    Originally posted by Quizzical

    The problem is that the rate of gold increase is simply too fast for new goods to keep up for very long.  If the rate of gold generation per player doubles every year, then how do you make twice as many goods useful to players every year?  Double the number of armor slots every year?  Anything that you might propose is self-evidently absurd to anyone who understands exponential growth.

    Okay, if inflation is really tied so strongly to the powerlevel of the playerbase (because higher level characters can create currency from nowhere at a much faster rate), doesn't the demand for goods drop because items are also created at an accelerated rate? I'm talking about instancing here.

    Take, I dunno... Gauntlets of Fiery Might from EQ1. They dropped off of Nagafen, one of the superbosses who only spawned at set intervals and was (shortly after guilds started hitting 50) killed very shortly after every spawn. GoFMs were created at a set rate. One out of every however-many Nagafen kills resulted in one more GoFM in the world, and a Nagafen kill happened once every however-many days. Even as hundreds of players on the server hit max level, the number of GoFMs being created on the server would grow at the same constant rate.

    Compare that to a heavily-instanced game. If some desirable item drops from some bosses in an instance, more copies of that item will appear on the server at a faster rate as more characters become eligible to run that instance. That item is created at the same accelerated rate as the currency. This doesn't happen in non-instanced games like EQ1 and FFXI where everyone drinks from the same fountain: a glut of high level players does not equal a faster rate of Cloak of Flames or Emperor Hairpins appearing on the market.

    I'm not arguing whether inflation is the inevitable result as more and more money pops into existence. I'm also not arguing whether instancing is a positive way to combat inflation. I'm specifically saying that the inflation problem has nothing to do with the creation of currency outstripping the creation of desired goods as characters reach higher and higher levels, because that's not the case in instanced games that accomodate any number of players simultaneously running the same content to get the same items.

    image
  • LoktofeitLoktofeit Member RarePosts: 14,247

    Originally posted by Disdena

    I'm specifically saying that the inflation problem has nothing to do with the creation of currency outstripping the creation of desired goods as characters reach higher and higher levels, because that's not the case in instanced games that accomodate any number of players simultaneously running the same content to get the same items.

    The presence or lack of instances is irrelevant and any perceived correlation is exactly that. One could easily contend that isntancing causes inflation, which is why they are now put on timers in most MMOs so as to prevent people from farming them to hell and back, inflating the money supply.

     

    Inflation or, more specific to this discussion, hyperinflation is the result of the money supply outstripping (i like that word!) desired and required expenditures of money.

    There isn't a "right" or "wrong" way to play, if you want to use a screwdriver to put nails into wood, have at it, simply don't complain when the guy next to you with the hammer is doing it much better and easier. - Allein
    "Graphics are often supplied by Engines that (some) MMORPG's are built in" - Spuffyre

  • AxehiltAxehilt Member RarePosts: 10,504

    Originally posted by Requiamer

    For me they are 3 main reason for inflation in game or should i say super hyper inflation, hyper inflation is more what we are seeing now in our real life economy but whatever. Well i'll add a 4th one that is not obvious but yet a main source of inflation in most mmos i played, so it still need to be pointed.

    Anyway the 4 main reasons for me are

     

    1- no item consumption, and this is the most important, no gold disappear like ever if item don't vanish

     

    2- endless gold source by farming (ye i think gold sink are a ridiculous way to deal with the problem when item consumption is the natural way to do it, but whatever)

     

    3-level base design. If you make 100time more gold at max level than at level1 how the fuck could you not get inflation?

     

    4-dupe/hack/bots. Some dupe have killed some mmo economy in a matter of days, in fact i don't recall a mmo that wasn't duped to death at one point or an other. Those duping session had always created a great deal of inflation.

    But for me the lack of item consumption is clearly the reason N°1, and gold sink just can't come even close to what item consumption is in a real economy.

     

    If you're talking about the US economy, our inflation isn't anywhere close to hyperinflation.  (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflationhttp://inflationdata.com/inflation/inflation_rate/currentinflation.asp)

    And while some games achieve rates which would be considered hyperinflation, it's actually pretty rare for that inflation to affect the game negatively in any significant manner.

    I disagree with a few of your other points too.

    3. Increasing gold income at higher levels of play doesn't necessarily increase inflation if goldsinks keep pace.  But usually goldsinks intentionally don't keep pace (otherwise players would feel like it's hard to ever earn money...or that the value of eternally farming gold keeps extending out forever, making players feel forced to repetitively farm for gold.)

    4. "Duped to death" is a pretty extreme way to put it.  Duping may happen, but it's actually pretty rare that it has a significant negative impact on the game.

    "What is truly revealing is his implication that believing something to be true is the same as it being true. [continue]" -John Oliver

  • SpectrumizedSpectrumized Member Posts: 48

    Originally posted by Quizzical

    "Spiral Knights has an inflation problem though. While it isn't necessarily as bad as most MMOs, CE prices have almost doubled in the past month. Considering CE is the single most important item in the game, that's a pretty big deal."

    CE prices go up and CE prices go down.  What are the prices there these days, anyway?  I've seen them double before and I've seen them fall by half before.  I've heard that the all time high was over 20k.  Are you back into that range yet?

    My intuition is that the long term trend on CE prices is upward.  But it's not a simple analysis to get that.  And the long term trend on materials seems to be downward.

    20k? Dang O.O

    No, they're about 7k. Guess I wasn't playing back when they were that insane...

    Materials, like you said, are too cheap, but that's a subject that isn't related to inflation.

  • AxehiltAxehilt Member RarePosts: 10,504

    Originally posted by Spectrumized

    20k? Dang O.O

    No, they're about 7k. Guess I wasn't playing back when they were that insane...

    Materials, like you said, are too cheap, but that's a subject that isn't related to inflation.

    Eh?  Wouldn't material costs be entirely related to inflatIon?

    I mean I guess technically inflation is usually only applied to currency, but the exact same supply and demand which makes money worth less is what's making those materials worth less.

    "What is truly revealing is his implication that believing something to be true is the same as it being true. [continue]" -John Oliver

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