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1.7 million subscribers x $15 =
hh33
Member Posts: 55
My numbers are obviously generalized, but my point is still valid either way.
1,700,000 x $15 = $25,500,000 in lost revenue.
Sorry, but EA/Bioware are in panic mode over this project to willingly take a revenue hit like this no matter which way you try to spin it.
F2P by Dec 2012, I have no doubt about it anymore.
Comments
What in the hell are you talking about? You have to add that 25,500,000 every single month, btw. And don't forget to add in the price of box sales for those subs.
Nice math. lol.
i doubt EA will go f2p -- their other mmos UO, DAOC, Warhammer are not f2p
EQ2 fan sites
How was it?
Oh, yeah:
SW:TOR, the only MMO with 100% retention rate.
Don Quixote's Delusions
Ok, I'll entertain you then.
SWTOR production cost (best estimates) = $200 million
SWTOR box sales estimated at 2.1 million @ $50 avg price = $105,000,000
1.7 million subs @ $15 from Jan 20 - March 20 (1st month was free) = $51,000,000
Now go ahead and figure in capital gains, payroll, advertising, production, operational and about 250 other costs that will have easily cost around 60% of that $51 million they banked. Im being extremely generous with that estimate since the best large scale businesses in the world run at a profit margin of around 6-8% when the dust settles.
I'll keep going if you want, but the mathematics should be quite clear at this point - a $22.5(m) hit is a VERY substantial one for this venture to take and it was not made so you guys could feel good; it was made because EA/Bioware is panicking.
Or....they feel pretty good about their odds of turning a profit, so they're showing their subscribers that they appreciate having them. Considering they stated before launch that they need to have 500k active subs to make a profit on this game, and are sitting around 1.7 million, I'd say there's a good chance that this is a "thank you" more than a move out of panic.
Or do you have some kind of inside info for all this BS you are spouting? Either way, there's one way to find out who's right and who's wrong: You predicted the game would be F2P by December. I'm marking that prediction right now. Let's see if you're right. If you aren't, will you come back here and admit your prediction was wrong? Somehow, I doubt it.
Also, if they were really in panic mode about recouping their money and turning a profit, would they really be willing to give up 22.5 million? C'mon...be at least a little bit logical.
The game did not cost $200M to make. $200M includes the cost of advertising.
All of the infrastructure for the game is wrapped into that $200M number. The only real costs they have now are taxes and payroll. With a studio of 100 people with an average salary of $100,000/year their costs up to March would be $4,000,000/// mot $51M.
EA has been in panic about the game since launch when they didn't do the 5M sales numbers they thought they were getting.
Edit: To further elaborate the big gaming corporations always have to make hits. Each game they make has to exceed $300M in sales or the company as a whole risks a free fall. If they have two failures in a row they are done in. THQ had two misses in a row, Space Marine and Red faction. The company free fell.
Website: http://www.thegameguru.me / YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/users/thetroublmaker
They feel good about their odds? That is called speculation and EA/Bioware is entitled to operate as they please if they think that is what is going to best serve their business model for sucess.
Dont get me wrong, I dont want the venture to fail since it will cripple indie developers with an original product looking for investment capital. If SWTOR goes down the drain quickly then investors at the institutional level are going to bail out of the sector in droves.
However, my numbers are probably not that far off and sorry to say it, but you do not hand over a substantial revenue amount like this unless your company, project or whatever is in dire straits.
you know if star wars had of gone the b2p model they probably had doubled the box sales
and be in a better situation than they are now
You seriously think if they were in that much trouble they would willingly quite literally throw away 25 million dollars? Yeh.. no
If your company, project or whatever is in such dire straits, throwing away an additional 25 million dollars wouldnt even be close to being considered as an option.
its a marketing move meant to keep the declines from happening so people think they have a feree extra so they feel more relaxed and are elss likely to unsub later meaning that they will retain more subs. and even possibly gain some though looking generous.
you guys may see it as oh they are not getting 25,000,000 this month... but maybe they will get more in thelong run because of this
And this is the point where natural answers arise:
a) they dont have nearly that amount of subs, and their projection of what number of subs they will have after 4 months mark (1+3) is not looking good at all
b) they number crunched that after 1+3 months mark its less loss to give everyone still playing 30 free days, even retain some people that woulndt retain sub/play otherwise in the process than go on marketing campaign to aquire new customers
c) so no, they are not really trowing 25 million away, number is much much less
d) they still lose money which doesnt really bode well for future
e) that loss will show up as marketing cost in their report anyway, but its not really fooling anyone any more
Dont forget interest on monies used from investors/banks for development and tax. Those two items alone would of ate the box sales by a massive amount if not entirely when we are talking 200 million +.
Also, don't forget about Uncle George!
When it goes F2P some people will still argue that it has been a total success, it's pointless arguing, I meet people like this all the time, they just don't have the mental capacity to look at situations and see the reality of them.
It's clear as day that SWTOR has failed in a massive way and EA are in full on panic mode trying to keep the numbers up for the next shareholders report.
1.7 mil is not a fact - we cannot confirm this numbers with empirical data and I think it is only a marketing strategy. This last is a speculation too btw.
If they still had 1.7M active and paying subs, they would not be giving away a free month at this stage of the game (pun intended)
Goebbels would be proud of EA to see so many buying into the 1,7 mill subs nonsense. As others have commented, 100% retention rate isnt exactly likely.
Earlier MMO games that have had a bad launch have been able to repair part of the damage and still make some money.
SW:TOR however I believe is going to turn into a black hole moneywise for BioWare and EA. They spent at least 200 mill just on the development of the game. And they are nowhere near that amount in sales/subs. Personaly I would not be surprised to see SW:TOR shut down in 1-2 years time. Cant happen? Well they shut down SWG because it wasnt good enough, so as soon as a new SW franchise MMO can be planned this one is going away.
All EA have said is that they had 1.7m at 31st dec and the vast majority went past the free month, so all we know is that 1.3 to 1.69m of that original 1.7m subbed from 20th Jan to 20th Feb, that's it, EA have made no other statements on the subject of the numbers. All other indicators show falling subs.Has it occured to anyone that the time span they expect to recup their money and plan to make a profit is longer than 3 months?
I seriously doubt they have even one million subs by now:
Star Wars: The Old Republic was built to thrive in a WoW world
Quote:
Their goal, for now, is to gain over one million subscribers in the long-term, one they’re apparently well on their way to meeting.
Ahem: aren't you supposed to have 1.7 million subscribers?
If that's 1m active subs then their average subscriber plays the game 10 minutes a day.
MMORPG genre is dead. Long live MMOCS (Massively Multiplayer Online Cash Shop).
An interesting observation is that the metacritic user score has been steadily falling since January (6.1) untill now (5.7).
Apparently people are dedicated (angry?) enough to vote on metacritic 3 months down the line.
With most games the trend is that the score stabilizes past month one as the initial wave of 10/0-trolls ebbs off.
The stated goal there is long-term. The 1.7 million subscribers (whether true or not) is in the very short term.
The trends on Torstatus get messed up when servers are down cause it then registers a drop in light status since it says offline instead of light. It's not noticeable on heavy and full of course, since they are at the bottom already.