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Seems like the game has peaked on XFire - Part 2

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  • fadisfadis Member Posts: 469

    TERA also launched... not a huge MMO, but at least on based on the area chat - there are people that left TOR. 

     

    One of the big components we don't know in all of this is the actual number of ACTIVE Xfire users.  It leaves some doubt about the value of the raw numbers... more doubt, if we saw TOR actually rising in the overall rankings, while losing raw players.

    On the other hand - since we see TOR now dropping below World of Tanks AND losing raw numbers... that's probably another pretty good sign (along with all the other data) that TOR is continuing to slide.

  • UronksurUronksur Member UncommonPosts: 310

    What is XFire? I've never heard of it.

  • VrikaVrika Member LegendaryPosts: 7,992

    Originally posted by Metentso

    Originally posted by Minny


    Originally posted by Metentso


    Originally posted by obii

    Summer?

    We had 30° here :P

     

    Are you implying that WoW players are the most outdoor-loving persons in all MMO players? :)

    Xfire had a huge patch on May 2 2012 om 19:29:46

    All games always loose 10% to 20% a few days after such a patch.

    The mmorpg's don't recuperate the numbers as fewer and fewer MMO players prefer to install the patch and give admin rights to Xfire.

    The last patch happened on Feb 29th and had a similar trend.

    The decline of Xfire has been going on for years now.

    So after a patch some players stop using xFire forever?

     

    World of Warcraft statistics from 2008: nearly 90 000 players and 19 million minutes played

     

    WoW statistics from 2012: 12 000 players and 2,6 million minutes played

     
  • fadisfadis Member Posts: 469

    ^Those charts lead me to believe XFire is probably losing active users... but the only period we care about for purposes of looking at TOR is since TOR launch to now.  Specifically we'd need to know the % decline in active XFire users... then make a comparison in the decline in TOR users. 

    It's all part of the puzzle.  It isn't just 1 thing that leads people to think TOR is in a big decline... it's everything.

    Since Tera just launched... maybe track their numbers a bit and see if they release any sub #'s. 

     

    * didn't look too hard, but I think I saw a post that mentioned early-launch TOR having something like 10,000 users.  Assuming people play both games just about as hard-core in the launch days... TERA's 1200 players puts it @ something like maybe 200k subs?  Sounds fair to me.

    TOR has 3000-ish players... not playing as hard-core, of course, at this point.  700k-800k subs maybe?

     

  • QuenchsterQuenchster Member Posts: 450

    Rank

    Name

    Hours

    #7

    World of Tanks

    11441

    #8

    Star Wars: The Old Republic

    11240

    Congratulations World of Tanks!

  • Blackwater56Blackwater56 Member Posts: 122

    Originally posted by Vrika

     

    World of Warcraft statistics from 2008: nearly 90 000 players and 19 million minutes played

     

    WoW statistics from 2012: 12 000 players and 2,6 million minutes played

    Xfire has lost a lot of WoW players, especially after Blizzard implemented RealID.

    And lets also not forget that WoW recently lost 2 million subscribers 

  • Blackwater56Blackwater56 Member Posts: 122

    Originally posted by MosesZD

     

    1.  Subs aren't players.   A sub with one days' worth of time counts, even if the person hasn't played the game for weeks and has uninstalled the client.

    Considering that literally half the servers on saturday primetime were light (That's not a hyperbole. torstatus.net) it looks like that 1.7 HASN'T played the game in weeks.

     

    Apperantly people just love giving Bioware money and just stay subbed without playing at all

  • Bushi13Bushi13 Member Posts: 123

    Originally posted by Blackwater56

    Considering that literally half the servers on saturday primetime were light (That's not a hyperbole. torstatus.net) it looks like that 1.7 HASN'T played the game in weeks.

     

    Apperantly people just love giving Bioware money and just stay subbed without playing at all

    Appearanty Bioware love to give free game time to people .

    Diablow 3, it sucks ...

  • RefMinorRefMinor Member UncommonPosts: 3,452
    Originally posted by RodimusPrime


    Originally posted by RefMinor


    Originally posted by RodimusPrime

    wow it's the same three to four haters pounding this horse into sludge. Wouldn't it be easier to take it to PM since tis basically the 4 of you bumping your on thread.  

     

    Thank you for your comment, you seem to be getting to be quite a regular here, I guess it's like when you drive past a car crash, you can't help but slow down to have a look. It's a free forum, no one one makes you click, the title tells you what you are clicking on, there's no excuse.

    Wow impressed you bumped the thread 3 times in a row. 

     

    Posting 3 times in 7 minutes is not "bumping" the thread, it's catching up. This is bumping the thread, many thanks for the set up.
  • VrikaVrika Member LegendaryPosts: 7,992

    Originally posted by Blackwater56

    Originally posted by Vrika

     

    World of Warcraft statistics from 2008: nearly 90 000 players and 19 million minutes played

     

    WoW statistics from 2012: 12 000 players and 2,6 million minutes played

    Xfire has lost a lot of WoW players, especially after Blizzard implemented RealID.

    And lets also not forget that WoW recently lost 2 million subscribers 

    XFire has lost more than only WoW players. On 2008 WoW alone managed to gain 400 000+ hours played on some days, now it requires top 15 games on XFire combined to get that many hours. XFire is used less today than it was 4 years ago.

     

    EDIT:

    On April 2007 the 20th game on XFire, EVE Online, had average of 9,5k hours played per day.

     Source: http://www.xfire.com/cms/xstatics_2007_april/

    Today EVE Online is still 20th game, on Friday it was played 3,6k hours. Drop of 60% hours.

    On April 2007 it required 30k hours/played per day to reach XFire top 10 games, today Starcraft 2 fits into top 10 with only 8k hours.

    /EDIT

     
  • RefMinorRefMinor Member UncommonPosts: 3,452
    A nice round 2700 for Saturday
  • RefMinorRefMinor Member UncommonPosts: 3,452
    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by Blackwater56


    Originally posted by MosesZD
     
    1.  Subs aren't players.   A sub with one days' worth of time counts, even if the person hasn't played the game for weeks and has uninstalled the client.

    Considering that literally half the servers on saturday primetime were light (That's not a hyperbole. torstatus.net) it looks like that 1.7 HASN'T played the game in weeks.

     

    Apperantly people just love giving Bioware money and just stay subbed without playing at all

     Let me clue you in to something. 1.7 million could play the game for sveral  hours a week without exceeding those concurrency numbers. It's possible a count of 1.7 million subscribers could include no one who preordered or bought the game in the first month. The game could have a thriving population even if no one at all played on any Saturday. The basis of your assertion is false. Those scenarios although extremely unlikely are mathematically possible. So before you assume you know something, don't.

     

    And yet the XFire figures show a rise every weekend as does the server status.
  • MetentsoMetentso Member UncommonPosts: 1,437

    Originally posted by Vrika

    Originally posted by Blackwater56


    Originally posted by Vrika

     

    World of Warcraft statistics from 2008: nearly 90 000 players and 19 million minutes played

     

     

    WoW statistics from 2012: 12 000 players and 2,6 million minutes played

     

    Xfire has lost a lot of WoW players, especially after Blizzard implemented RealID.

    And lets also not forget that WoW recently lost 2 million subscribers 

    XFire has lost more than only WoW players. On 2008 WoW alone managed to gain 400 000+ hours played on some days, now it requires top 15 games on XFire combined to get that many hours. XFire is used less today than it was 4 years ago.

     

    EDIT:

    On April 2007 the 20th game on XFire, EVE Online, had average of 9,5k hours played per day.

     Source: http://www.xfire.com/cms/xstatics_2007_april/

    Today EVE Online is still 20th game, on Friday it was played 3,6k hours. Drop of 60% hours.

    On April 2007 it required 30k hours/played per day to reach XFire top 10 games, today Starcraft 2 fits into top 10 with only 8k hours.

    /EDIT

    We should then substract a 10% drop every year due to xFire general decline?

  • QuenchsterQuenchster Member Posts: 450

    Originally posted by Quenchster

    Rank

    Name

    Hours

    #7

    World of Tanks

    11441

    #8

    Star Wars: The Old Republic

    11240

    Congratulations World of Tanks!


    Rank

    Name

    Hours

    #7

    Star Wars: The Old Republic

    13692

    #8

    World of Tanks

    13440

    Congratulations SWTOR! Man, that game is going neck and neck with SWTOR.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919

    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    Originally posted by Blackwater56


    Originally posted by MosesZD

     

    1.  Subs aren't players.   A sub with one days' worth of time counts, even if the person hasn't played the game for weeks and has uninstalled the client.

    Considering that literally half the servers on saturday primetime were light (That's not a hyperbole. torstatus.net) it looks like that 1.7 HASN'T played the game in weeks.

     

    Apperantly people just love giving Bioware money and just stay subbed without playing at all

     Let me clue you in to something. 1.7 million could play the game for sveral  hours a week without exceeding those concurrency numbers. It's possible a count of 1.7 million subscribers could include no one who preordered or bought the game in the first month. The game could have a thriving population even if no one at all played on any Saturday. The basis of your assertion is false. Those scenarios although extremely unlikely are mathematically possible. So before you assume you know something, don't.

    Yes as Zymurgeist says this would be a possible scenario but it wasn't true for the first two maybe three months based on what EA said about the average hours played per day per user. Not sure whether EA said anything about hours played in the February conference call or at the March presentation. They were positively gushing about how much people played initially however. 

    And the average hours played that EA gave out synched well with the average hours that XFire showed.

    Now recently I don't think EA have given out average hours - or said anything officially about SWTOR since the conference presentation in March. So maybe, just maybe, in the last few weeks peoples play habits have completely changed and everyone only logs in for 1 or 2 hours a week. It is possible but a song from Dumbo about elephants flying comes to mind.

      

  • wowfan1996wowfan1996 Member UncommonPosts: 719

    TERA is released. Less than 10 days till D3 release. Then probably another GW2 BWE, then TSW release and yet another GW2 BWE.

    I wonder if anyone will still play SWTOR by the time they'll add server transfers.

    MMORPG genre is dead. Long live MMOCS (Massively Multiplayer Online Cash Shop).

  • bartoni33bartoni33 Member RarePosts: 2,044

    Originally posted by fadis

    ^Those charts lead me to believe XFire is probably losing active users...<snip>

    This is true. Since they have been bought out by whoever last year the quality of service has dropped quite a bit. Updates are just now being done on a weekly basis like they used to be. People are leaving for Raptor or whatever it is. I've stayed because I don't care at all about the social side of XFire, I just like to keep track of how much of my life I am wasting on games.

    Bartoni's Law definition: As an Internet discussion grows volatile, the probability of a comparison involving Donald Trump approaches 1.


  • CrackboneCrackbone Member Posts: 212

    Originally posted by wowfan1996

    TERA is released. Less than 10 days till D3 release. Then probably another GW2 BWE, then TSW release and yet another GW2 BWE.

    I wonder if anyone will still play SWTOR by the time they'll add server transfers.

    It's dropping faster than I expected post 1.2.  However, after playing it, I can definitely see why.  

    BW still hasn't alleivated the core problem, and that is providing a meaningful game experience.  The worlds are dead, the game is soulless.

    IMO, BW has  had a $200M "Whoopsie," and with everything else on the horizon, I feel they won't be able to recover and the numbers will continue the downward trend. 


  • Originally posted by RefMinor

    Originally posted by lizardbones

     




    Originally posted by Blackwater56





    Originally posted by lizardbones





    Calculate any actual numbers from XFire without assuming some additional numbers. You can't. There is no way to get from XFire's numbers to an actual subscriber count, actual hours played by the player base or any other actual number. You can't even say that the total number of players dropped by a certain percentage. The closest you can get is "Less" or "More" or "No Change".



    It's just a poor quality tool to use the way many people on these forums use it.



     






    Were not looking for actual numbers, were looking for trends







    Look at gervaise1's post. When you say, "We", make sure you know who you're including in the "We".

     

     

    He can include me, he talks sense.

    I don't generally bothering commenting on these threads, but I would like to put in my contention that Xfire does NOT count as true self-selection and is therefore a decent indicator of trends if somewhat inaccurate.


  • Originally posted by Crackbone

    Originally posted by wowfan1996

    TERA is released. Less than 10 days till D3 release. Then probably another GW2 BWE, then TSW release and yet another GW2 BWE.

    I wonder if anyone will still play SWTOR by the time they'll add server transfers.

    It's dropping faster than I expected post 1.2.  However, after playing it, I can definitely see why.  

    BW still hasn't alleivated the core problem, and that is providing a meaningful game experience.  The worlds are dead, the game is soulless.

    IMO, BW has  had a $200M "Whoopsie," and with everything else on the horizon, I feel they won't be able to recover and the numbers will continue the downward trend. 

    I don't care if BW crashes and burns as long as they take EA with them.

  • BlackbrrdBlackbrrd Member Posts: 811

    Originally posted by Metentso

    We should then substract a 10% drop every year due to xFire general decline?

    Xfire dropped from 231k players on February 15th to 161k players March 29th. A decline of about 1.6k players/day or about 20% pr month  or 31% for the period

    SWTOR fell from 5852 to 3657 or about 38% for the period.

    If you adjust the SWTOR drop for the general drop in xfire users, you get a drop of around 10% or about 7% per month.

  • VrikaVrika Member LegendaryPosts: 7,992

    Blackbrrd where do you get that info of total XFire users? I can't find it from their website.

     
  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919

    Originally posted by Blackbrrd

    Originally posted by Metentso



    We should then substract a 10% drop every year due to xFire general decline?

    Xfire dropped from 231k players on February 15th to 161k players March 29th. A decline of about 1.6k players/day or about 20% pr month  or 31% for the period

    SWTOR fell from 5852 to 3657 or about 38% for the period.

    If you adjust the SWTOR drop for the general drop in xfire users, you get a drop of around 10% or about 7% per month.

    Not that simple in a nutshell - as I have said in various posts what we have isn't as simple as 'sampling'. No point going into the detail.

    However the simplifcation that we have a stable population of "XFire users who have opted to play SWTOR" is OK. And there is no need to adjust the numbers either they are fine; what the simplification does is impact the margin of error. And I don't see any claims for XFire has dropped X% so SWTOR has dropped X%.

    RefMinor used a gravity analogy earlier and so I will extend that: if you are going to the moon then you can stick with Newtonian gravity - even though it isn't 100% right. If you were off to the stars you would need to go with Einstein's 'refined' version. It's the precision that is impacted.

  • SandboxSandbox Member UncommonPosts: 295

    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    Originally posted by RefMinor


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by Blackwater56


    Originally posted by MosesZD

     

    1.  Subs aren't players.   A sub with one days' worth of time counts, even if the person hasn't played the game for weeks and has uninstalled the client.

    Considering that literally half the servers on saturday primetime were light (That's not a hyperbole. torstatus.net) it looks like that 1.7 HASN'T played the game in weeks.

     

    Apperantly people just love giving Bioware money and just stay subbed without playing at all

     Let me clue you in to something. 1.7 million could play the game for sveral  hours a week without exceeding those concurrency numbers. It's possible a count of 1.7 million subscribers could include no one who preordered or bought the game in the first month. The game could have a thriving population even if no one at all played on any Saturday. The basis of your assertion is false. Those scenarios although extremely unlikely are mathematically possible. So before you assume you know something, don't.

     

    And yet the XFire figures show a rise every weekend as does the server status.

     And yet Xfire is completely unsuitable for the purpose you make of it. The raw data cannot support the assumptions, and that's all it is assumptions. It's like trying to measure the mass of an object with a ruler. Wrong tool for the job.

    And yet you can use a ruler to measure if an object is growing or not, even if you can't measure it's exact size.

  • SandboxSandbox Member UncommonPosts: 295

    Originally posted by zymurgeist

    Originally posted by Sandbox


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by RefMinor


    Originally posted by zymurgeist


    Originally posted by Blackwater56


    Originally posted by MosesZD

     

    1.  Subs aren't players.   A sub with one days' worth of time counts, even if the person hasn't played the game for weeks and has uninstalled the client.

    Considering that literally half the servers on saturday primetime were light (That's not a hyperbole. torstatus.net) it looks like that 1.7 HASN'T played the game in weeks.

     

    Apperantly people just love giving Bioware money and just stay subbed without playing at all

     Let me clue you in to something. 1.7 million could play the game for sveral  hours a week without exceeding those concurrency numbers. It's possible a count of 1.7 million subscribers could include no one who preordered or bought the game in the first month. The game could have a thriving population even if no one at all played on any Saturday. The basis of your assertion is false. Those scenarios although extremely unlikely are mathematically possible. So before you assume you know something, don't.

     

    And yet the XFire figures show a rise every weekend as does the server status.

     And yet Xfire is completely unsuitable for the purpose you make of it. The raw data cannot support the assumptions, and that's all it is assumptions. It's like trying to measure the mass of an object with a ruler. Wrong tool for the job.

    And yet you can use a ruler to measure if an object is growing or not, even if you can't measure it's exact size.

     That is completely tangential to the analogy used. You've missed the meaning. Up or down, Xfire does not mirror subscriber changes or provide reasons for them.

    It was You that compared XFire with a Ruler, both are good at measuring trends, either in usage or size. You missed your own point, or should I say you shoot yourselves in the foot by bringing up that analogy.

This discussion has been closed.