It's ultimately counter-productive to wish for the death of a game in a genre you enjoy (even a game you detest). The lesson learned by publishers/developers is just as likely to be "don't invest big in MMOs" as it is "don't make a vanilla themepark". If EA can throw massive wads of cash at a seasoned game developer and have the product tank in record time, how is another big publisher going to sell to its investors the idea of taking just such a gamble? Likewise, if the Mortals and Xysons and Fallen Earths go under, how soon before Indie devs decide their money and manpower is better spent making iPhone apps or cheap browser games instead?
The failures of EA's style of management can be summed up in just one sentance... "Throwing alot of money at problems doesn't yield a solution, it just yields expensive problems."
If EA learned that very basic lesson they could start turning thier situation around.....but it will probably take replacing thier entire top tier of management to do that.
The saddest thing about TOR was also the saddest thing about WAR and in botch cases it was the dev higher ups seemed to believer the crap they were spewing despite the fans reactions.
That's what I saw. A complete disconnect from reality and some of thinest skins ever... And it's a pattern with BioWare.
Take Dragon Age 2... Man did they get roasted. Yet the still defend that game in the press and have even gone as far as to call it 'innovative.' How the heck to you dumb-down your previous game replacing pause-combat with button-mashing, replacing seme-intelligent enemies with dumb zerglings while recycling areas and assets from your previous game and call it 'innovative?' Same thing happened with he lame ME3 ending that violated every rule of story telling (you do NOT put in a protagonist after the climax of the story and throw away the entire plot). It was all the fans fault for 'not getting their art' rather than they violated the rules of story telling you learn in English 280 -- Introduction to Creative Writing.
You know what the makers of the Deus Ex did when fans were upset about the boss fights? They apologized. They didn't tell the fans they made an innovative game and shut the hell up. They said they were sorry.
When Square Enix completely blew FFXIV, what did they do? Troll the fans like Ohlen? Lie to the fans like Erickson? Go completely mute and pretend all was well? No! They made it free-to-play as they revamped that mess.
Something is wrong with EA management because you don't throw that much money at a game's development and have so little to show for it, especially when you have one of the biggest and most beloved IP's of all time.
SWTOR is a very forgettable game. The sooner it dies the sooner someone else can try again because I truly believe in the awesome potential of this IP in the right hands.
Dont get your hopes up. SWTOR will be around for a very long time.
As a fourth-tier also-ran. After all, from an accounting perspective, they already spent the money. No reason to not try to make something back on the investment. Considering the license production costs etc, I wonder how much of their development costs they've made back so far? I personally would guess at around 50% give or take anyone else care to play?:)
However, it's not looking to be a commercial success. XFire log-ins, which correllate strongly to future subscription losses, are down to under 20% of peak. That's under 20% of the 1.7 million sub level. When Xfire was down 50%, subs were down 43%. The difference mostly a combination of growing disinterst and the lag of canceling vis quitting. In short, people get bored, then people quit, then the sub runs out. Some people quit with MONTHS on their accounts others quit with days or weeks. In the end, it does take time for all them to clear.
Sometimes I run the numbers. They're not even close to halfway there.
1. They sold 2/3rds of the units at wholesale and 1/3 via Origin (according Ricetello of EA). Wholesale is about 50% of retail. Total gross sales to EA: $91.7 million. This includes the first month subs, btw.
2. Costs $5 to $7 a pop to manufacture and distribute the retail units. Say $6 and that's 9.2 million in costs.
3. LucasArts is the publisher and gets 30%. That's $27.5 million.
At this point we're down to $55 million from the box sales. We have not, at this point in time, even begun to touch the rest of the costs. Advertising and marketing. Overhead. Etc. No need. We can already see that things are not so hot just from revenue side. So I'll look to subs to see if there's a good chance of make up there...
The subscriptions are churning at a 15% rate. The player base even faster and, eventually, the sub-cancelation rate will catch up. The current sales are at 40K per month. The long-term population, if the churn rate somehow manages to stay at 15%, and sales do not continue to decline, which I have my doubts, projects in at under 250K.
Considering royalties (30% of subs) . Maintence and sever costs (30% of subs). Expansions (they have to do them in 3 languages). The lack of interest (subs dropping like flies). And the fact it's only got a 5-year license with LucasArts and they may just pull the plug...
This game has virtually no chance in ever recouping the investment. If they put it on maintence mode with small updates, like so many other MMOs that have falled by the wayside, they can make some money. They can remain in the black for current operations.
But they will never recoup the money their investment. But as I said... The investment is a sunk cost. That money is spent. There is no reason to cancel the MMO as long as current income exceeds current expenses. But it will never be the success they were banking on.
Comments
It's ultimately counter-productive to wish for the death of a game in a genre you enjoy (even a game you detest). The lesson learned by publishers/developers is just as likely to be "don't invest big in MMOs" as it is "don't make a vanilla themepark". If EA can throw massive wads of cash at a seasoned game developer and have the product tank in record time, how is another big publisher going to sell to its investors the idea of taking just such a gamble? Likewise, if the Mortals and Xysons and Fallen Earths go under, how soon before Indie devs decide their money and manpower is better spent making iPhone apps or cheap browser games instead?
Philosophy of MMO Game Design
The failures of EA's style of management can be summed up in just one sentance... "Throwing alot of money at problems doesn't yield a solution, it just yields expensive problems."
If EA learned that very basic lesson they could start turning thier situation around.....but it will probably take replacing thier entire top tier of management to do that.
That's what I saw. A complete disconnect from reality and some of thinest skins ever... And it's a pattern with BioWare.
Take Dragon Age 2... Man did they get roasted. Yet the still defend that game in the press and have even gone as far as to call it 'innovative.' How the heck to you dumb-down your previous game replacing pause-combat with button-mashing, replacing seme-intelligent enemies with dumb zerglings while recycling areas and assets from your previous game and call it 'innovative?' Same thing happened with he lame ME3 ending that violated every rule of story telling (you do NOT put in a protagonist after the climax of the story and throw away the entire plot). It was all the fans fault for 'not getting their art' rather than they violated the rules of story telling you learn in English 280 -- Introduction to Creative Writing.
You know what the makers of the Deus Ex did when fans were upset about the boss fights? They apologized. They didn't tell the fans they made an innovative game and shut the hell up. They said they were sorry.
When Square Enix completely blew FFXIV, what did they do? Troll the fans like Ohlen? Lie to the fans like Erickson? Go completely mute and pretend all was well? No! They made it free-to-play as they revamped that mess.
Sometimes I run the numbers. They're not even close to halfway there.
1. They sold 2/3rds of the units at wholesale and 1/3 via Origin (according Ricetello of EA). Wholesale is about 50% of retail. Total gross sales to EA: $91.7 million. This includes the first month subs, btw.
2. Costs $5 to $7 a pop to manufacture and distribute the retail units. Say $6 and that's 9.2 million in costs.
3. LucasArts is the publisher and gets 30%. That's $27.5 million.
At this point we're down to $55 million from the box sales. We have not, at this point in time, even begun to touch the rest of the costs. Advertising and marketing. Overhead. Etc. No need. We can already see that things are not so hot just from revenue side. So I'll look to subs to see if there's a good chance of make up there...
The subscriptions are churning at a 15% rate. The player base even faster and, eventually, the sub-cancelation rate will catch up. The current sales are at 40K per month. The long-term population, if the churn rate somehow manages to stay at 15%, and sales do not continue to decline, which I have my doubts, projects in at under 250K.
Considering royalties (30% of subs) . Maintence and sever costs (30% of subs). Expansions (they have to do them in 3 languages). The lack of interest (subs dropping like flies). And the fact it's only got a 5-year license with LucasArts and they may just pull the plug...
This game has virtually no chance in ever recouping the investment. If they put it on maintence mode with small updates, like so many other MMOs that have falled by the wayside, they can make some money. They can remain in the black for current operations.
But they will never recoup the money their investment. But as I said... The investment is a sunk cost. That money is spent. There is no reason to cancel the MMO as long as current income exceeds current expenses. But it will never be the success they were banking on.