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I expect Guild Wars 2 to sell 3.1 million copies after commercialization in August
OldManFunk
Member Posts: 894
in Guild Wars 2
ANet hasn't said much about numbers, yet... but here's a pretty good guess:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/special/2012/07/182_115061.html
“I expect Guild Wars 2 to sell 3.1 million copies after commercialization in August,” Daewoo Securities analyst Kim Chang-kwean said by telephone. “Since April, the company has received 1 million pre-orders.” He compared the numbers favorably with Aion, of which NCsoft had 900,000 pre-orders when it was launched four years ago.
Comments
yea..... good for them but the first week is going to be laggy as hell. thats why im going to purchase in september
....... if i can wait that long
http://medias.luna-atra.fr/gw2/char_tool/CT_imageGenerator.php?pseudo=Centurion Mikal&lang=EN&code=&code=TSwtLDUsLSw2LC0sMjksOSwyMiwyMywyNCwtLDEwMiwzNiw4MSw4NCw4OQ==
I sort of doubt that, the number is a little high even for a game that has this many people excited. I think at this point, the majority of the people that are interested in the game have already purchased it. There's no reason not to, especially with a release date set and not very far off.
Now 3.1mill ~eventually~? Yeah, I'll give him that. The first one sold 7mill and it's not half the game GW2 is. 1mill pre-orders is a pretty awesome start. 1mill x $60 minimum (not including those who purchased collector's/deluxe) is sexy. Explains why they're already so gung-ho about working on the expansion even before the game is out.
"Forums aren't for intelligent discussion; they're for blow-hards with unwavering opinions."
by dec. 31, perhaps.
That number is way too high tbh, maybe by next year but definitely not right when it launches lol.
unless i'm mistaken, "after commercialization in August" leaves them a near infinite window.
True enough, and considering GW1 sold as much as it did, that guess would not be too far fetched then when you leave the rest of time for it ...O_o
I think people are going to be surprised at how many people get this game.
It's coming out at a fantastic time, right at the end of several AWFUL years in MMORPG gaming in a row with repeated terrible releases. Even The Secret World, which honestly isn't a bad game, is going to have been out for a few months right when this B2P game comes out...just the perfect kind of game for people to pick up even if they aren't necessarily looking to quit their current game.
If the game comes off as well as it has been in betas, it's going to pick up steam fast soon after release too. I don't feel out of line at all saying the game could have 3 million purchases at maybe the beginning of september (including the preorders of course)...then a full 3 million more by the end of the year.
I don't know exactly how many of those free beta keys have been given out for the upcoming BWE3 but it's clearly a decent sized six figure number of them combining them all together. There's about to be a LOT of people checking the game out this weekend, including all the people that aren't necessarily fans but just wanting to check out what the hype is about. Will all of them buy it? Of course not. But it's going to pick up many new people from BWE3 too.
Don't forget all the people half forcing themselves to goof around with a disappointing Diablo 3 release that would love to pick up a good B2P game they can fully switch to.
the F2P is gonna get a lot of people to try it out. I know i'll prly pick it up just cause it has no sub.
It isn't F2P any more than... pretty much any game is F2P. Is Battlefield 3 F2P? How about Mass Effect? Skyrim? No, you have to buy those (with money) to play them, just like GW2. A $60-price tag isn't going to get a lot of people to just "try it out" unless they've been playing nothing but subscription MMOs for years upon years. Only $60 to play? That's so much cheaper than... however many hundred people spend to play WoW all the time.
"Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind." -Dr. Seuss
i hope it does very well and continues to be successful. Then maybe everyone will stop doing these run of the mill quest grind games copying wow ideals like farming and grinding for that nice purple piece of gear , then one patch later its outdated. GW2 is going to sale because its buy to play , Im pretty sure people that dont even play mmorpgs will probably pick it up as gamers are addicts and want to play the next big thing.
No doubt it will sell a lot.
Im waiting to see the reaction on its long term playability before making the purchase.
Yes no more grinding ect just playing to have fun...not an issue the first few weeks a month...after a few months im not so sure.
Also no matter how many people leave later on in the games life it will always be able to live off its launch purchases added to anyone else who picked the game up down the road...so im really expecting much higher than 3mil purchases, right now im not expecting there to be a very long term retention unless AN is fantastic churning out new expansions.
To be honest, from what im hearing, the game really isnt meant to be a 24/7 type game (not that any are imo) so i think its got not only the no sub working for it, but a community who seems fine with a game they play as a side game or one they can come back to later ect...where a p2p game people get pissed real fast if they realize the game isnt going to keep them playing 12 hours a day 7 days a week for 5 years.
Going to be very interesting to see how this one does 2-3 months down the road, and see if the community that is right now very tolerant on its replayability and long term outlook remains that way after playing the game for 12 hours a day 7 days a week...
Havent decided if ill wait a month or wait for the next expansion announcement...you know so i know they mean business ect.
I am not interested in the launch sale of GW2, i am only interested in the number of sales over the first year, till the day they release the first expansion.
GW2 will sell way over 5 million copies during that first year. The game is so good that old fashioned mouth to mouth advertisement will make sure that new people will start playing the game.
I still dont know when they will do a full release in Asia, or the Console release, but that could sell even more copies of the game.
Best MMO experiences : EQ(PvE), DAoC(PvP), WoW(total package) LOTRO (worldfeel) GW2 (Artstyle and animations and worlddesign) SWTOR (Story immersion) TSW (story) ESO (character advancement)
I think that people are so use to seeing MMO's come out with half decent sales with a load of hype behind it that they are kinda projecting that onto GW2 as well.
There's a lot of things that seperate GW2 from the kind of releases that we have had in the past. GW2 might very well be the first major MMO to go without a subscription and retain or exceed the level of quality expected by the best of the genre without resorting to underhand schemes with cash shops.
You tell me right now that if a game came out with better quests/dungeons/graphics/combat etc etc than WoW and it also had the added bonus of needing a sub that you would rather play WoW? No, of course you wouldn't. And that is what will make GW2 huge.
It simply remains to be seen how many people think it is superior to other MMO's, my bet is that it will be north of 5 Million sales within the first year barring ArenaNet screwing up badly with something. How many Active players? Well that's hard to say and it's a bit like comparing apples to oranges since all the other MMO's count subs which doesn't always mean they are actually active outside of the fact that they are letting their sub continue.
Way too high TBH (to be honest)? Well if you're going to be honest, then why don't you tell us the real numbers? It's an estimate, like the 3-4 million copies some thought SWTOR would have sold by march. You can think it will be way less, but that's just your guess then. And after launch is not the same thing as at launch, so you'll have to wait a long time before you could ever be right about your guess, you can only be proven wrong sooner.
Yep and like SWTOR estimate this is as useless, its a gamble, if it surpasses that number he will be right, if it doesnt he will be wrong, its like the octopus and the rat and the pigeon that could predict the results of Euro 2012 results.
Back on point I dont know, it will probably sell well, its a B2P game after all there is some appeal to that, I wouldnt have pre-ordered it to pay a sub but B2P is alright and a lot of people I know are gonna be playing it which I imagine will be in spikes rather than long term commitment.
I am not gonna comment on numbers cause its just guess work, I expect these guys to have put some analytical thought into it, but I dont expect anyone here to be able to support or disprove these numbers with anything more than gut feeling and looking at other failed MMOs which is not really a very good measure.
3.2 million seems like a stretch. That is like 3x what there is now? I have no idea what the count is now, but I definitely think there will be more orders/pre-orders near launch time. I know I have last minute pre-ordered many games.
We'll see, but I am sure there will hit the 1.5-2 million mark by release or shortly after. They could surprise us and hit 3, but I don't know. I just hope the servers don't take a crap on themselves the first month :P
Well it's far more innovative than the likes of ArcheAge and The Repopulation. Look at all the instances it offers. You can PVP in small instances and also in big instances. Let's not forget how you can PvE, this game has it all, even a jumping puzzle.This game is bringing the changes we need. 10 million is only the beginning.
Agreed. It's the game to have. Even if people don't stick to it, the box sales are going to be up there.
#TeamVainlash
Why did Marceline's dad eat her fries? I mean...cause she bought them and they were hers...
SWTOR had what 1m US preorders not counting digital downloads or more ?
GW2 is 5 and half weeks from launch and it only has a fraction of that right now. I'm sorry, but this game wont come close to 3m right away. If its a hit and a great game you can bet it will get there but right away ? no chance. Also the 1 mil preorders is worldwide no one cares about world wide tell us the NA/Europe numbers because they fall short right now.
people really dont know how much GW2 is important to MMORPG players. a good indicator is this site and hits. even without game release he already have almost the same hits that SWTOR in "1 Year Section"
this is just crazy, 3M sell at December will gonna be very easy to reach, im pretty sure.
At least there is a good reason to have an online connection for playing in GW2.
even before GW2 preorders were available, analysts were predicting 3.12 million sales for 2012
April 6, 2012 report
http://www.kdbdw.com/bbs/download/155585.pdf?attachmentId=155585
Guild Wars 2’s website has drawn 9 times more visitors than Aion’s
NCsofts Aion recorded 1.5mn CD sales in the US and Europe in 2009. Guild Wars
1s CD sales volume exceeded 7mn over the last three years. After comparing the
number of unique visitors to the Aion website in 2009 (in the two months before
the pre-sale) to the number of unique visitors to the Guild Wars 2 website, we
found that the number of visitors to the Guild Wars 2 website (178,000) has far
exceeded the Aion figure (21,000). As such, we believe that Guild Wars 2 CD sales
are highly likely to surpass Aions. We assume that Guild Wars 2 CD sales in the
US and Europe will reach 3.12mn in 2012.
EQ2 fan sites
I know next to nothing about GW2 and I'm not even going to buy it, but if it's polished enough, has a good endgame, the ride is nice and they can produce quality expansions with a decent pace, then I see no reason why it couldn't dethrone that certain game.
And before someone points out that GW2 doesn't compete with p2p games, of course it does. There's only so many hours in a day.
Pre-purchase a game with no release date announced a couple of weeks ago or buy Diablo 3 and whatnot?
Additionally the 900K number is not an official number.
Currently playing: GW2
Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders
Yea sure. It is not some super awesome Blizzard game, just another low budget mmo