It's going to grow, provided they work these two fundamental kinks out:
1.) The Trading Post - you can't start a game without a functioning economy. The longer they take to address this crucial issue, the greater the probability that this game will lose players. Players are either hoarding or vendoring resources, and either of those combinations can wreck havoc with the perceived viability of an MMORPG. Hoarding will create an oversupplied, weak economy and vendoring will cause the market to over-inflate once the economy is back up and running. It's only a short-term problem because we're dealing with a virtual economy, but to the players - it's a very tangible problem.
2.) Security Breaches - nobody wants to play a game where their information is compromised. Perhaps ArenaNet should rethink its policies, and explanation for the breaches. Its beginning to look more and more like ArenaNet's servers are compromised rather than hackers parsing data from third parties. Also, see the Trading Post - why has it been down so long? I think this ties into the security breaches. If GW2 players' information was really culled from third party sources as opposed to AreanNet itself, why has the Trading Post been down for so long? Perhaps because that's where the user's credit card information is accessed. It just seems too coincidental.
Barring these two critical issues, and with ArenaNet's proposed incremental content introduction, GW2 has extreme growth potential. GW2 has alreay knocked WoW off its pedestal in terms of hours played as an aggregate, so it has an auspicious start.
Well... these things you mentioned are nothing unussual. You always have issues like these during launch period which may lasts for week or two. Eventhough, losing player accounts and mail scams seems to be the root of all these problems.
Main MMO at the moment: Guild Wars 2 Waiting for: Pathfinder Online
My prediction is I dont give a crap what other ppl are doing im enjoying the hell out of the game and will continue to enjoy it for a long time.
I mean come on man who really cares about this stuff. Why not just play what you enjoy why do we need these posts for every single new mmo that comes out?
Play what you want to play. Period.
That exactly is the problem with some people. They find it more fun to post on these forums than to play whatever game. Ok, back to my game now
Main MMO at the moment: Guild Wars 2 Waiting for: Pathfinder Online
Originally posted by Mannish Afther a couple weeks the game will start to die. The game just does not give you anything to look forward to doing or anything to work hard for. To me it does not even feel like a mmo.
There is plenty, it's not the game's fault if they told you before hand what kind of game this is and you chose to ignore that. This is no raiding/gear progression game.
Except for the fact that the game isn't subscription based so the only way to tell if the game failed would to look at the expansion numbers.
Almost all expansions sell less due to the nature of how gamers work. That is why if you get any, it is just a 1 or a few at most. Marketing decides the base is dying and needs to come out with a new game. Xfire I know we joke about it, but it's like a scientific poll of sorts. If the concurrent users are down, it will be true to the entire base. If they are up, the same.
The game fails if it closes up shop prior to their next mmo release. See you all in many years.
It will be hard to tell tbh until like other's say you have the Expack sales figures .
Due to it being B2P the number of box copies will continue to grow but that doesn't equal how many people are actually playing the game in 3months time
Not sure if ANET has increased server load or what but during the head start I was always in the overflow for an area and now as soon as I login I get the message to travel to the main area. Take it for what its worth which is very little.
My opinion would be the amount of players will lessen.
They increased population caps and opened 6 new servers. I saw it on their twitter page.
Originally posted by umcorian What are your predictions everyone? Will Guild Wars 2 be the first MMO since World of Warcraft to show growth in player-base after it's first month and have more active players playing than it did on release, or will it follow the path of every other MMO, never to have as many players again as it did on launch week?
Judging by their botched job on security and their sad excuse for customer service, I seriously doubt they will retain massive amounts of players like WoW. They just don't seem to have the same level of professionalism like the folks at Blizzard. My prediction is that GW2 will be a typical fad like every other mmo out there (except WoW).
You predict a game will be a fad because it has temporary issues in the first week or 2? You may want to review the history of the releases of other games. If the game is good and lived by its audience it will grow not be transformed into a fad by some exotic logic.
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Originally posted by umcorian What are your predictions everyone? Will Guild Wars 2 be the first MMO since World of Warcraft to show growth in player-base after it's first month and have more active players playing than it did on release, or will it follow the path of every other MMO, never to have as many players again as it did on launch week?
Judging by their botched job on security and their sad excuse for customer service, I seriously doubt they will retain massive amounts of players like WoW. They just don't seem to have the same level of professionalism like the folks at Blizzard. My prediction is that GW2 will be a typical fad like every other mmo out there (except WoW).
So what you are trying to tell me is, EverQuest, having a subscription model for 13 years and now being F2P with servers still up and populated, was a 'typical fad like every other mmo out there' ? Lol Satar cmon, you are obviously wrong here and just another little WoW utopian.
This game is doomed to go by the wayside because as others in this thread have said, ANet didnt do enough to try and change the genre. MMO's are successful because they have something people want. People in Everquest wanted an easier game because they couldnt devote the time it took to go through the progression. They got WoW. (Unfortunately might I add, I liked EQ's model quite a bit till it went too rampant on the X-pack's.) Now people want something that is different than the same ole wow/eq combat, ANet's answer is the same combat with a dodge mixed in? thats pretty sad and shows how out of touch they were.
Side Note - What innovations did GW2 bring to the MMORPG Genre? I have yet to see one unique to this game.
Not sure if ANET has increased server load or what but during the head start I was always in the overflow for an area and now as soon as I login I get the message to travel to the main area. Take it for what its worth which is very little.
My opinion would be the amount of players will lessen.
They more then double what servers can handle now and now instead of everyone being on the same couple of maps. Because ever one was low lvl, they are now spread out.
well considering that they had to turn off temporarily the ability to digitally buy the game and download it because of the sheer crazy number of people playing, I'd say it's still very healthy and will be once these boots start flying around squashing bugs.
Not sure if ANET has increased server load or what but during the head start I was always in the overflow for an area and now as soon as I login I get the message to travel to the main area. Take it for what its worth which is very little.
My opinion would be the amount of players will lessen.
They more then double what servers can handle now and now instead of everyone being on the same couple of maps. Because ever one was low lvl, they are now spread out.
yeah nice try slylok but they did make huge changes to the main servers. They aren't however adding MORE servers to handle the load because of what happened to games like SWTOR. they know better. Also, they had to turn off digital purchasing because of the sheer madness of the number of people buying the game everyday since launch, that doesn't show that it will be lessening anytime soon when they turn it back on.
Originally posted by Mannish Afther a couple weeks the game will start to die. The game just does not give you anything to look forward to doing or anything to work hard for. To me it does not even feel like a mmo.
There is plenty, it's not the game's fault if they told you before hand what kind of game this is and you chose to ignore that. This is no raiding/gear progression game.
There is plenty like what? Dont say something then give no examples because it makes you look like you really dont know. Also who said anything about raiding / gear?
Like all pure themeparks in our fast and solo friendly days, the time it will have a hayday will be short. In half a year the shrinking will be visible. That is the inevitable fate of themeparks and maybe of MMOs generally these days. GW2 has good quality and is F"P, so it will likely stand the test of time better. But we live in times where people move on quickly to ever new toys.
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
I was one of the people who sat here and explained, how Guild Wars 2 can change the mmo-industry, and that it is the only title being able to compete, quality-wise, to WoW.
However, I will still be one of the people, who will gladly explain, that Guild Wars 2 is a full-time mmo just for the first weeks/months. It is not WoW, not it is designed to be, this will be the mmo that you will have on your computer, and that you will gladly check from now to then to have some fun with pve content or pvp with friends.
It will keep it name, as one of the legends in the mmo-industry until the next expansion, however, this is not an mmo that will keep the player-base playing the whole time.
I was one of the people who sat here and explained, how Guild Wars 2 can change the mmo-industry, and that it is the only title being able to compete, quality-wise, to WoW.
However, I will still be one of the people, who will gladly explain, that Guild Wars 2 is a full-time mmo just for the first weeks/months. It is not WoW, not it is designed to be, this will be the mmo that you will have on your computer, and that you will gladly check from now to then to have some fun with pve content or pvp with friends.
It will keep it name, as one of the legends in the mmo-industry until the next expansion, however, this is not an mmo that will keep the player-base playing the whole time.
This poster pretty much hit the nail on the head. Bravo!
I was one of the people who sat here and explained, how Guild Wars 2 can change the mmo-industry, and that it is the only title being able to compete, quality-wise, to WoW.
However, I will still be one of the people, who will gladly explain, that Guild Wars 2 is a full-time mmo just for the first weeks/months. It is not WoW, not it is designed to be, this will be the mmo that you will have on your computer, and that you will gladly check from now to then to have some fun with pve content or pvp with friends.
It will keep it name, as one of the legends in the mmo-industry until the next expansion, however, this is not an mmo that will keep the player-base playing the whole time.
TLDR, people will get bored of it, and fast.
After 1 year, it will be forgotten.
But it's not because the game is shallow or bad, noooo, it was designed that way.
Rofl
I doubt many people will actually come back every now and then.... to do what? more Dynamic Events? lol
2 million sold, 1 year later, 300.000 active players, yeah, a real industry changer, a real legend.
"Dogs are the leaders of the planet. If you see two life forms, one of them's making a poop, the other one's carrying it for him, who would you assume is in charge."
"The idea behind the tuxedo is the woman's point of view that men are all the same; so we might as well dress them that way. That's why a wedding is like the joining together of a beautiful, glowing bride and some guy" -Seinfeld
So long as the game has enough players and revenue to keep it viable then thats all that matters really isn't it?
This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.
Originally posted by umcorian What are your predictions everyone? Will Guild Wars 2 be the first MMO since World of Warcraft to show growth in player-base after it's first month and have more active players playing than it did on release, or will it follow the path of every other MMO, never to have as many players again as it did on launch week?
Many others have grown after the first month, like Rift which had higher player numbers the 2nd month, however that is irrelevant.
What matters is what happens after 3 months and 6 months. My prediction lower numbers after 3 ane even lower after 6 months. The PvE gets boring and PVP is not something masses do. Just my opinion.
Also lower numbers does NOT mean dying - dying happens when the game falls below a critical low threshold where the server/hosting cost to keep the game running can no longer be justified.
Rift was a funny one though. As you may recall the client straight after launch was discounted and then discounted again after the first month. There was also a discount on a 3/6/12 month sub plan, so I'd suggest that a lot of people got the game, liked it and stubbed up for discounted multi month plans then were joined by others at the end of the first month who took a chance on the cheap client, I know I did. Subjective I know, but I'm sure the game hasn't grown long term.
As for the actually question, it depends on how well the cash shop does. Really it's the driving force for the future of the game, if people stop buying then that'll slowly mount up the costs and the whole thing will become a burden to NCSOFT. They'll probably be a hardcore PVP bunch that'll keep this going and will keep investing in the cash shop for the gems for cash and boots. Expect more items to arrive in the CS in due course, more tempting things then are there now.
NCSOFT/ANET are looking to grow the game longterm, I doubt they expected people to abandon WoW like EA did with SWTOR, there hoping word of mouth and positivity to drive those unsure to fork out the cash and then stay there and invest in the CS. So far I'd say there's a mixed response, but it's early days. If we see talks of an expansion in a years time I'd say there pretty much on target and the cash shop has been doing it's job.
1) ANET owns their own servers
2) GW1 is still operational after 7 years. Cash shpp didn't really exist until after they stopped development on the game
3) GW2 will likely operate similarily to GW1, where a paid expansion will be released every 6-9 months.
1. NCSOFT are part of the investment/promotional cycle. To think they have no interest/influence over ANET and their decisions is naive and no I'm not assuming that NCSOFT is, 'the bad guy', just staing something.
2. GW1 is not an MMO, the developers have called it a CORPG themselves, so the parameters/profitability are different, especially when running many servers. The cash shop was not in GW1 after development finished, you could buy skills from Nightfall after it released.
3. Maybe, maybe not but I'm sure we'll see more appealing items in the CS soon.
It doesnt mattter , The game is B2P and is not going anywhere. The people that still love GW2 3or 6 months from now will have spent enough in the cash shop to keep the game profitable. The genious of GW2 is that is is a really high quality MMO which has no subscription model, People will leave & comeback, leave & comeback ect...
This games future nor success can be measured by active players 6 months down the road, instead it will need to be evaluated on a yearly basis because of the B2P cash model A-net has in place.
I see GW2 as the kind of MMO that will just stick around for the next decade like WOW, The graphics engine they have in place is good enough to not look dated several years+ from now.
I agree. These guys are like Southwest Airlines of the MMO industry. They figured out how to survive and thrive better than everyone using an innovative business model, very shrewd they are. Many MMO producers are catching on and moving to similar business models!
Comments
Well... these things you mentioned are nothing unussual. You always have issues like these during launch period which may lasts for week or two. Eventhough, losing player accounts and mail scams seems to be the root of all these problems.
Main MMO at the moment: Guild Wars 2
Waiting for: Pathfinder Online
That exactly is the problem with some people. They find it more fun to post on these forums than to play whatever game. Ok, back to my game now
Main MMO at the moment: Guild Wars 2
Waiting for: Pathfinder Online
There is plenty, it's not the game's fault if they told you before hand what kind of game this is and you chose to ignore that. This is no raiding/gear progression game.
Almost all expansions sell less due to the nature of how gamers work. That is why if you get any, it is just a 1 or a few at most. Marketing decides the base is dying and needs to come out with a new game. Xfire I know we joke about it, but it's like a scientific poll of sorts. If the concurrent users are down, it will be true to the entire base. If they are up, the same.
The game fails if it closes up shop prior to their next mmo release. See you all in many years.
It's definitely growing for me.
As far as "How many hours are you playing a day?" This is the most I've played a game since March 1999 when EQ came out.
Growing or dying?
TRY DOUBLING!!!
It will be hard to tell tbh until like other's say you have the Expack sales figures .
Due to it being B2P the number of box copies will continue to grow but that doesn't equal how many people are actually playing the game in 3months time
They increased population caps and opened 6 new servers. I saw it on their twitter page.
I'll be happy if they do. I want instant WvW queues.
Judging by their botched job on security and their sad excuse for customer service, I seriously doubt they will retain massive amounts of players like WoW. They just don't seem to have the same level of professionalism like the folks at Blizzard. My prediction is that GW2 will be a typical fad like every other mmo out there (except WoW).
rpg/mmorg history: Dun Darach>Bloodwych>Bards Tale 1-3>Eye of the beholder > Might and Magic 2,3,5 > FFVII> Baldur's Gate 1, 2 > Planescape Torment >Morrowind > WOW > oblivion > LOTR > Guild Wars (1900hrs elementalist) Vanguard. > GW2(1000 elementalist), Wildstar
Now playing GW2, AOW 3, ESO, LOTR, Elite D
So what you are trying to tell me is, EverQuest, having a subscription model for 13 years and now being F2P with servers still up and populated, was a 'typical fad like every other mmo out there' ? Lol Satar cmon, you are obviously wrong here and just another little WoW utopian.
This game is doomed to go by the wayside because as others in this thread have said, ANet didnt do enough to try and change the genre. MMO's are successful because they have something people want. People in Everquest wanted an easier game because they couldnt devote the time it took to go through the progression. They got WoW. (Unfortunately might I add, I liked EQ's model quite a bit till it went too rampant on the X-pack's.) Now people want something that is different than the same ole wow/eq combat, ANet's answer is the same combat with a dodge mixed in? thats pretty sad and shows how out of touch they were.
Side Note - What innovations did GW2 bring to the MMORPG Genre? I have yet to see one unique to this game.
They more then double what servers can handle now and now instead of everyone being on the same couple of maps. Because ever one was low lvl, they are now spread out.
There is plenty like what? Dont say something then give no examples because it makes you look like you really dont know. Also who said anything about raiding / gear?
People don't ask questions to get answers - they ask questions to show how smart they are. - Dogbert
I was one of the people who sat here and explained, how Guild Wars 2 can change the mmo-industry, and that it is the only title being able to compete, quality-wise, to WoW.
However, I will still be one of the people, who will gladly explain, that Guild Wars 2 is a full-time mmo just for the first weeks/months. It is not WoW, not it is designed to be, this will be the mmo that you will have on your computer, and that you will gladly check from now to then to have some fun with pve content or pvp with friends.
It will keep it name, as one of the legends in the mmo-industry until the next expansion, however, this is not an mmo that will keep the player-base playing the whole time.
This poster pretty much hit the nail on the head. Bravo!
TLDR, people will get bored of it, and fast.
After 1 year, it will be forgotten.
But it's not because the game is shallow or bad, noooo, it was designed that way.
Rofl
I doubt many people will actually come back every now and then.... to do what? more Dynamic Events? lol
2 million sold, 1 year later, 300.000 active players, yeah, a real industry changer, a real legend.
"Dogs are the leaders of the planet. If you see two life forms, one of them's making a poop, the other one's carrying it for him, who would you assume is in charge."
"The idea behind the tuxedo is the woman's point of view that men are all the same; so we might as well dress them that way. That's why a wedding is like the joining together of a beautiful, glowing bride and some guy"
-Seinfeld
This doom and gloom thread was brought to you by Chin Up the new ultra high caffeine soft drink for gamers who just need that boost of happiness after a long forum session.
1. NCSOFT are part of the investment/promotional cycle. To think they have no interest/influence over ANET and their decisions is naive and no I'm not assuming that NCSOFT is, 'the bad guy', just staing something.
2. GW1 is not an MMO, the developers have called it a CORPG themselves, so the parameters/profitability are different, especially when running many servers. The cash shop was not in GW1 after development finished, you could buy skills from Nightfall after it released.
3. Maybe, maybe not but I'm sure we'll see more appealing items in the CS soon.
This looks like a job for....The Riviera Kid!