The only thing XFire can estimate is trends n thats bout it, at least in the NA. I would assume that it might also show trends in the EU but don't know if they have a different service for that stuff and don't think that Asia or other parts of the world use XFire.
The only thing Xfire can really do is show a trend in hours played.When a game is launched/soft launched,you will see a spike.From that point you can expect the hours played to decrease by 60%-80% over the next 3-4 month's or so.From the 3-4 month mark you see many spikes and maybe a slow decrease.The spikes are usually due to content releases or a free weekend.
You can see variables over time though,such as quicker decline in hours,or maybe a game goes ftp and then you see a steady rise,Followed by another steady decline.
It's not exact by any means,but you can see trend over time and see a general health for a game compared to other's.
Some day I'm going to put a sword through your eye and out the back of your skull!
Originally posted by OzmodanThis entire conversation is quite silly. The only people who use XFire are console gamers and many of those generally don't play MMO's. So any statistics derived from such are bogus. Means zilch when the vast majority of players do not use it!
So if you look at a chart for a game about the time of release, you notice a massive spike in population on release day. You would tell us that information is bogus.
You could say "there's a big spike in sales", but that doesn't tell you how many people are playing the game. It certainly doesn't tell you how many people bought the game. The only thing you can compare XFire numbers to is XFire.
For instance, if the XFire population of a game drops 80%, does that mean the overall game's population drops 80%? No. Look at SWToR's numbers. Look at any MMO post release for that matter. In order for there to be a comparable drop in actual game numbers, the games would have to start with double or triple the number of players they actually start with.
Kyleran: "Now there's the real trick, learning to accept and enjoy a game for what
it offers rather than pass on what might be a great playing experience
because it lacks a few features you prefer."
John Henry Newman: "A man would do nothing if he waited until he could do it so well that no one could find fault."
FreddyNoNose: "A good game needs no defense; a bad game has no defense." "Easily digested content is just as easily forgotten."
LacedOpium: "So the question that begs to be asked is, if you are not interested in
the game mechanics that define the MMORPG genre, then why are you
playing an MMORPG?"
Originally posted by waynejr2 Originally posted by lizardbonesOriginally posted by waynejr2Originally posted by OzmodanThis entire conversation is quite silly. The only people who use XFire are console gamers and many of those generally don't play MMO's. So any statistics derived from such are bogus. Means zilch when the vast majority of players do not use it!
So if you look at a chart for a game about the time of release, you notice a massive spike in population on release day. You would tell us that information is bogus. You could say "there's a big spike in sales", but that doesn't tell you how many people are playing the game. It certainly doesn't tell you how many people bought the game. The only thing you can compare XFire numbers to is XFire. For instance, if the XFire population of a game drops 80%, does that mean the overall game's population drops 80%? No. Look at SWToR's numbers. Look at any MMO post release for that matter. In order for there to be a comparable drop in actual game numbers, the games would have to start with double or triple the number of players they actually start with. The F-ing point is that it has meaning.
What meaning? Is it an indescribable meaning? The meaning certainly has nothing to do with accuracy, or some relation between XFire numbers and a game's actual population. There's possibly a relation between XFire's current numbers and the number of concurrent players in a game, but the only game where it's possible to see the relation is with Eve, because they are the only game that publishes their numbers.
Here's an experiment for anyone with the interest and time. Take Eve's concurrent player population daily over a period of three weeks or so. At the same time, take XFire's numbers over the same period of time for Eve. Try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to their overall subscription numbers, since they publish those numbers, and then try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to XFire's player numbers. The final step is to let everyone know what the relation is between XFire's numbers and Eve's concurrent player numbers and the relation between Eve's concurrent player numbers and their subscription numbers. Since XFire has meaning, and is a population estimation tool, this experiment can't possibly end in anything but success.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Originally posted by OzmodanThis entire conversation is quite silly. The only people who use XFire are console gamers and many of those generally don't play MMO's. So any statistics derived from such are bogus. Means zilch when the vast majority of players do not use it!
So if you look at a chart for a game about the time of release, you notice a massive spike in population on release day. You would tell us that information is bogus.
You could say "there's a big spike in sales", but that doesn't tell you how many people are playing the game. It certainly doesn't tell you how many people bought the game. The only thing you can compare XFire numbers to is XFire. For instance, if the XFire population of a game drops 80%, does that mean the overall game's population drops 80%? No. Look at SWToR's numbers. Look at any MMO post release for that matter. In order for there to be a comparable drop in actual game numbers, the games would have to start with double or triple the number of players they actually start with.
The F-ing point is that it has meaning.
What meaning? Is it an indescribable meaning? The meaning certainly has nothing to do with accuracy, or some relation between XFire numbers and a game's actual population. There's possibly a relation between XFire's current numbers and the number of concurrent players in a game, but the only game where it's possible to see the relation is with Eve, because they are the only game that publishes their numbers.
Here's an experiment for anyone with the interest and time. Take Eve's concurrent player population daily over a period of three weeks or so. At the same time, take XFire's numbers over the same period of time for Eve. Try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to their overall subscription numbers, since they publish those numbers, and then try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to XFire's player numbers. The final step is to let everyone know what the relation is between XFire's numbers and Eve's concurrent player numbers and the relation between Eve's concurrent player numbers and their subscription numbers. Since XFire has meaning, and is a population estimation tool, this experiment can't possibly end in anything but success.
darn... you were exactly correct. Both Eve and XFire showed Eve's numbers going down during the week and up on the weekends. just like life.. XFire has meaning!
predict, measure, compare, report - learn it, live it, worship it
Originally posted by OzmodanThis entire conversation is quite silly. The only people who use XFire are console gamers and many of those generally don't play MMO's. So any statistics derived from such are bogus. Means zilch when the vast majority of players do not use it!
So if you look at a chart for a game about the time of release, you notice a massive spike in population on release day. You would tell us that information is bogus.
You could say "there's a big spike in sales", but that doesn't tell you how many people are playing the game. It certainly doesn't tell you how many people bought the game. The only thing you can compare XFire numbers to is XFire. For instance, if the XFire population of a game drops 80%, does that mean the overall game's population drops 80%? No. Look at SWToR's numbers. Look at any MMO post release for that matter. In order for there to be a comparable drop in actual game numbers, the games would have to start with double or triple the number of players they actually start with.
The F-ing point is that it has meaning.
What meaning? Is it an indescribable meaning? The meaning certainly has nothing to do with accuracy, or some relation between XFire numbers and a game's actual population. There's possibly a relation between XFire's current numbers and the number of concurrent players in a game, but the only game where it's possible to see the relation is with Eve, because they are the only game that publishes their numbers.
Here's an experiment for anyone with the interest and time. Take Eve's concurrent player population daily over a period of three weeks or so. At the same time, take XFire's numbers over the same period of time for Eve. Try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to their overall subscription numbers, since they publish those numbers, and then try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to XFire's player numbers. The final step is to let everyone know what the relation is between XFire's numbers and Eve's concurrent player numbers and the relation between Eve's concurrent player numbers and their subscription numbers. Since XFire has meaning, and is a population estimation tool, this experiment can't possibly end in anything but success.
darn... you were exactly correct. Both Eve and XFire showed Eve's numbers going down during the week and up on the weekends. just like life.. XFire has meaning!
predict, measure, compare, report - learn it, live it, worship it
Sz
)
Love ya Saunz,you...you describe the whole of it all,that gives it meaning
Some day I'm going to put a sword through your eye and out the back of your skull!
The theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
Originally posted by SaunZ Originally posted by lizardbonesOriginally posted by waynejr2Originally posted by lizardbonesOriginally posted by waynejr2Originally posted by OzmodanThis entire conversation is quite silly. The only people who use XFire are console gamers and many of those generally don't play MMO's. So any statistics derived from such are bogus. Means zilch when the vast majority of players do not use it!
So if you look at a chart for a game about the time of release, you notice a massive spike in population on release day. You would tell us that information is bogus.You could say "there's a big spike in sales", but that doesn't tell you how many people are playing the game. It certainly doesn't tell you how many people bought the game. The only thing you can compare XFire numbers to is XFire. For instance, if the XFire population of a game drops 80%, does that mean the overall game's population drops 80%? No. Look at SWToR's numbers. Look at any MMO post release for that matter. In order for there to be a comparable drop in actual game numbers, the games would have to start with double or triple the number of players they actually start with. The F-ing point is that it has meaning. What meaning? Is it an indescribable meaning? The meaning certainly has nothing to do with accuracy, or some relation between XFire numbers and a game's actual population. There's possibly a relation between XFire's current numbers and the number of concurrent players in a game, but the only game where it's possible to see the relation is with Eve, because they are the only game that publishes their numbers. Here's an experiment for anyone with the interest and time. Take Eve's concurrent player population daily over a period of three weeks or so. At the same time, take XFire's numbers over the same period of time for Eve. Try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to their overall subscription numbers, since they publish those numbers, and then try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to XFire's player numbers. The final step is to let everyone know what the relation is between XFire's numbers and Eve's concurrent player numbers and the relation between Eve's concurrent player numbers and their subscription numbers. Since XFire has meaning, and is a population estimation tool, this experiment can't possibly end in anything but success. darn... you were exactly correct. Both Eve and XFire showed Eve's numbers going down during the week and up on the weekends. just like life.. XFire has meaning!
predict, measure, compare, report - learn it, live it, worship it
Sz
)
Whoa buddy. You don't get a just cookie yet. Show the relation between the concurrent players and the subscriptions.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Originally posted by TheCrow2k The theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
There have been a couple of research papers done on XFire players themselves, and the "average" XFire player plays a lot of games, and tends to move from game to game a good bit. There's no public information available like that by category though. For instance, of all the XFire players who played MMOs, how long do they average playing an MMO per week and overall? What was the longest they spent playing an MMO and the shortest? I mean, that information does exist, but that's the information that XFire gets to sell, not the information that they let random people scoop up and use.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Originally posted by TheCrow2k The theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
just like the percentages we use for the US Presidential Election Polls...
awww, TheCrow2k, your clan is SO normally distributed.
everybody wants to be non-parametric but, only us on the bottom of the bell get to brag.
Originally posted by TheCrow2k The theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
There have been a couple of research papers done on XFire players themselves, and the "average" XFire player plays a lot of games, and tends to move from game to game a good bit. There's no public information available like that by category though. For instance, of all the XFire players who played MMOs, how long do they average playing an MMO per week and overall? What was the longest they spent playing an MMO and the shortest? I mean, that information does exist, but that's the information that XFire gets to sell, not the information that they let random people scoop up and use.
THOSE studies were low pop. studies...
you think you and i have the same DNA... seems like it.
Originally posted by TheCrow2k The theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
Unless xfire is a requirement for an mmo then the numbers are too random to be used as an estimation tool and only going to represent xfire users and nothing else.
Originally posted by TheCrow2k The theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
Unless xfire is a requirement for an mmo then the numbers are too random to be used as an estimation tool and only going to represent xfire users and nothing else.
"... too random..."
beginning statistics users (ie. engineering students) are WAY funny
Originally posted by TheCrow2k The theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
Unless xfire is a requirement for an mmo then the numbers are too random to be used as an estimation tool and only going to represent xfire users and nothing else.
"... too random..."
beginning statistics users (ie. engineering students) are WAY funny
Sz
)
what i find way funny is you actully think a program that only a percentage of players use can be used to track to overall population of a game.
fact xfire dose not have a set percentage of xfire users to non xfires user in each game or even in the same game at diffrent times of day.
fact useing a non stable percentage as a basis for estimateing population dousnt work.
this is why xfire can not be used for reliable judgement of a games population
F2P may be the way of the future, but ya know they dont make them like they used to Proper Grammer & spelling are extra, corrections will be LOL at.
Originally posted by TheCrow2k The theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
Unless xfire is a requirement for an mmo then the numbers are too random to be used as an estimation tool and only going to represent xfire users and nothing else.
"... too random..."
beginning statistics users (ie. engineering students) are WAY funny
Sz
)
what i find way funny is you actully think a program that only a percentage of players use can be used to track to overall population of a game.
fact xfire dose not have a set percentage of xfire users to non xfires user in each game or even in the same game at diffrent times of day.
fact useing a non stable percentage as a basis for estimateing population dousnt work.
this is why xfire can not be used for reliable judgement of a games population
fact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election
fact: you deciding it is a non stable percentage is funny
just because you can't do these things doesn't mean intelligent life can't
Originally posted by Squeak69 Originally posted by SaunZOriginally posted by KarahandrasOriginally posted by TheCrow2kThe theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
Unless xfire is a requirement for an mmo then the numbers are too random to be used as an estimation tool and only going to represent xfire users and nothing else. "... too random..."beginning statistics users (ie. engineering students) are WAY funnySz)what i find way funny is you actully think a program that only a percentage of players use can be used to track to overall population of a game.
fact xfire dose not have a set percentage of xfire users to non xfires user in each game or even in the same game at diffrent times of day.
fact useing a non stable percentage as a basis for estimateing population dousnt work.
this is why xfire can not be used for reliable judgement of a games population
If they had some sort of profile information on the people participating, they could build models that would tell them what kinds of players liked what kinds of games. Stuff like that is worth a little bit of money. That's why we don't see any of that information. This is also what makes me think XFire is useless as a population estimation tool. That's just not what it's for. Which is why they give away the "population" information for free. It's not worth anything.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Originally posted by SaunZ Originally posted by Squeak69Originally posted by SaunZOriginally posted by KarahandrasOriginally posted by TheCrow2kThe theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
Unless xfire is a requirement for an mmo then the numbers are too random to be used as an estimation tool and only going to represent xfire users and nothing else. "... too random..."beginning statistics users (ie. engineering students) are WAY funnySz)what i find way funny is you actully think a program that only a percentage of players use can be used to track to overall population of a game.fact xfire dose not have a set percentage of xfire users to non xfires user in each game or even in the same game at diffrent times of day.fact useing a non stable percentage as a basis for estimateing population dousnt work.this is why xfire can not be used for reliable judgement of a games populationfact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election
fact: you deciding it is a non stable percentage is funny
just because you can't do these things doesn't mean intelligent life can't
Sz
)
Fact: The methods used by pollsters to predict elections isn't anything at all like what XFire does.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
exact game populations can be derived from using the XFire database; humans just haven't discovered the correct algorithm to do so.
Sz
)
No, it can't.
Unless you took a survey of every MMORPG player in ever single MMORPG to find out if they used xfire so you can find the exact percentage for each game, in which case you would know the counts without xfire.
At a bare minimum you would have to run a model for every single MMORPG to try to determine what % of its players use xfire. its reasonable to believe a game like TERA has more than 5% of its players using xfire, whereas a game like EQ1 likely has less than 1/10 of a percent. And since we would be using models, the numbers wouldnt be exact.
You probably could get a ballpark figure with 5-10% margin of error but it would take a long time to do all the studies necessary to set up models.
exact game populations can be derived from using the XFire database; humans just haven't discovered the correct algorithm to do so.
Sz
)
No, it can't.
Unless you took a survey of every MMORPG player in ever single MMORPG to find out if they used xfire so you can find the exact percentage for each game, in which case you would know the counts without xfire.
At a bare minimum you would have to run a model for every single MMORPG to try to determine what % of its players use xfire. its reasonable to believe a game like TERA has more than 5% of its players using xfire, whereas a game like EQ1 likely has less than 1/10 of a percent. And since we would be using models, the numbers wouldnt be exact.
You probably could get a ballpark figure with 5-10% margin of error but it would take a long time to do all the studies necessary to set up models.
"No it can't" or "you probably could"?
come back when you can put a single thought together.
your model idea is close but not how it was done... at least YOU are warm.
Originally posted by TheCrow2kThe theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
Unless xfire is a requirement for an mmo then the numbers are too random to be used as an estimation tool and only going to represent xfire users and nothing else.
"... too random..."beginning statistics users (ie. engineering students) are WAY funnySz)
what i find way funny is you actully think a program that only a percentage of players use can be used to track to overall population of a game.fact xfire dose not have a set percentage of xfire users to non xfires user in each game or even in the same game at diffrent times of day.fact useing a non stable percentage as a basis for estimateing population dousnt work.this is why xfire can not be used for reliable judgement of a games population
fact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election
fact: you deciding it is a non stable percentage is funny
just because you can't do these things doesn't mean intelligent life can't
Sz
)
Fact: The methods used by pollsters to predict elections isn't anything at all like what XFire does.
I will work with you on Operational Numbers (Stats) once we work on your comprehension of English structure.
I said, "fact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election"
You said, "Fact: The methods used by pollsters to predict elections isn't anything at all like what XFire does."
Anything seem strange or twisted here? I said how WE did it and you changed to how pollsters do it.
I seriously doubt you know how WE did it OR how THEY do it but, relax and understand that XFire is a sample set and that sample set is used by vendors and consumers. You can argue, forever, that it is not valid and yet it IS used; and used accurately given the correct tools.
I am bored by this.. lets go talk about the sinister ambitions of F2P or why GW2 failed.
Originally posted by SaunZ Originally posted by lizardbonesOriginally posted by SaunZOriginally posted by Squeak69Originally posted by SaunZOriginally posted by KarahandrasOriginally posted by TheCrow2kThe theory in the first post ammounts to little more than a guess "backed up" by nothing more than a coincidence. I am in a Clan with 60+ members in my city, only 2 report to being on xfire. Not very good numbers when talking about % of population. Bottom line is not enough people use xfire & the people that do fit a certain profile that does not match the bulk of gamers.
Unless xfire is a requirement for an mmo then the numbers are too random to be used as an estimation tool and only going to represent xfire users and nothing else. "... too random..."beginning statistics users (ie. engineering students) are WAY funnySz)what i find way funny is you actully think a program that only a percentage of players use can be used to track to overall population of a game.fact xfire dose not have a set percentage of xfire users to non xfires user in each game or even in the same game at diffrent times of day.fact useing a non stable percentage as a basis for estimateing population dousnt work.this is why xfire can not be used for reliable judgement of a games populationfact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's electionfact: you deciding it is a non stable percentage is funnyjust because you can't do these things doesn't mean intelligent life can'tSz)Fact: The methods used by pollsters to predict elections isn't anything at all like what XFire does.I will work with you on Operational Numbers (Stats) once we work on your comprehension of English structure.
I said, "fact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election"
You said, "Fact: The methods used by pollsters to predict elections isn't anything at all like what XFire does."
Anything seem strange or twisted here? I said how WE did it and you changed to how pollsters do it.
I seriously doubt you know how WE did it OR how THEY do it but, relax and understand that XFire is a sample set and that sample set is used by vendors and consumers. You can argue, forever, that it is not valid and yet it IS used; and used accurately given the correct tools.
I am bored by this.. lets go talk about the sinister ambitions of F2P or why GW2 failed.
Sz
)
Step One: What question is being asked. Election Polls: Who will be the next president. Xfire: ?
Step Two: Target demographics that will lead to getting the right answer. So for an election poll, non-voting Wiccans would not be relevant, and would be ignored. For XFire, it's just anyone who happens to sign up.
Step Three: Throw out irrelevant information: For election polls, this is the step where the non-voting Wiccans responses are ignored. For XFire, this is where nothing is ignored, no matter how irrelevant.
Step Four: Actually determine an answer. In election polls, this is where they knew Obama was going to win the election. For XFire it's what? No, really, what is the answer? What was the question? Because it wasn't "How many people are playing SWToR".
XFire isn't anything like an election poll because XFire isn't a poll. It's an information service for developers and marketers. The people using XFire aren't the customers, and the people looking at the website aren't the customers either. They are the product.
Look at the percentage of XFire's homepage devoted to advertising for visitors, compared to the percentage of MMORPG.com's website devoted to advertising. XFire is making money somewhere, but it's not website advertising. They are selling the information they collect to developers and marketers, because those are their customers. You think Funcom needs XFire to know how many people are playing Age of Conan? They want to know what kinds of people are playing AoC, and what those people are interested in buying. Someone developing a new game wants to know what kinds of features people are taking screenshots of, and what kinds of videos they are posting. The game population angle is a side show.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
exact game populations can be derived from using the XFire database; humans just haven't discovered the correct algorithm to do so.
Sz
)
No, it can't.
Unless you took a survey of every MMORPG player in ever single MMORPG to find out if they used xfire so you can find the exact percentage for each game, in which case you would know the counts without xfire.
At a bare minimum you would have to run a model for every single MMORPG to try to determine what % of its players use xfire. its reasonable to believe a game like TERA has more than 5% of its players using xfire, whereas a game like EQ1 likely has less than 1/10 of a percent. And since we would be using models, the numbers wouldnt be exact.
You probably could get a ballpark figure with 5-10% margin of error but it would take a long time to do all the studies necessary to set up models.
"No it can't" or "you probably could"?
come back when you can put a single thought together.
your model idea is close but not how it was done... at least YOU are warm.
Sz
)
You should probably drop the whole condescending routine, because you lack the basic comprehension of the English language to pull it off.
You said you could get an *exact* number. I said you can't, but could probably get a rough ballpark number. Exact isn't really a big vocabulary word, so maybe its the phrase 'ballpark' that's throwing you off? But even so the context of the sentence should clue you in to what it represents.
My suggestion is you stop posting before you embarrass yourself any further.
Comments
The only thing Xfire can really do is show a trend in hours played.When a game is launched/soft launched,you will see a spike.From that point you can expect the hours played to decrease by 60%-80% over the next 3-4 month's or so.From the 3-4 month mark you see many spikes and maybe a slow decrease.The spikes are usually due to content releases or a free weekend.
You can see variables over time though,such as quicker decline in hours,or maybe a game goes ftp and then you see a steady rise,Followed by another steady decline.
It's not exact by any means,but you can see trend over time and see a general health for a game compared to other's.
Some day I'm going to put a sword through your eye and out the back of your skull!
Arya Stark
exact game populations can be derived from using the XFire database; humans just haven't discovered the correct algorithm to do so.
Sz
The F-ing point is that it has meaning.
Epic Music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAigCvelkhQ&list=PLo9FRw1AkDuQLEz7Gvvaz3ideB2NpFtT1
https://archive.org/details/softwarelibrary_msdos?&sort=-downloads&page=1
Kyleran: "Now there's the real trick, learning to accept and enjoy a game for what it offers rather than pass on what might be a great playing experience because it lacks a few features you prefer."
John Henry Newman: "A man would do nothing if he waited until he could do it so well that no one could find fault."
FreddyNoNose: "A good game needs no defense; a bad game has no defense." "Easily digested content is just as easily forgotten."
LacedOpium: "So the question that begs to be asked is, if you are not interested in the game mechanics that define the MMORPG genre, then why are you playing an MMORPG?"
You could say "there's a big spike in sales", but that doesn't tell you how many people are playing the game. It certainly doesn't tell you how many people bought the game. The only thing you can compare XFire numbers to is XFire. For instance, if the XFire population of a game drops 80%, does that mean the overall game's population drops 80%? No. Look at SWToR's numbers. Look at any MMO post release for that matter. In order for there to be a comparable drop in actual game numbers, the games would have to start with double or triple the number of players they actually start with.
The F-ing point is that it has meaning.
What meaning? Is it an indescribable meaning? The meaning certainly has nothing to do with accuracy, or some relation between XFire numbers and a game's actual population. There's possibly a relation between XFire's current numbers and the number of concurrent players in a game, but the only game where it's possible to see the relation is with Eve, because they are the only game that publishes their numbers.
Here's an experiment for anyone with the interest and time. Take Eve's concurrent player population daily over a period of three weeks or so. At the same time, take XFire's numbers over the same period of time for Eve. Try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to their overall subscription numbers, since they publish those numbers, and then try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to XFire's player numbers. The final step is to let everyone know what the relation is between XFire's numbers and Eve's concurrent player numbers and the relation between Eve's concurrent player numbers and their subscription numbers. Since XFire has meaning, and is a population estimation tool, this experiment can't possibly end in anything but success.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
darn... you were exactly correct. Both Eve and XFire showed Eve's numbers going down during the week and up on the weekends. just like life.. XFire has meaning!
predict, measure, compare, report - learn it, live it, worship it
Sz
Love ya Saunz,you...you describe the whole of it all,that gives it meaning
Some day I'm going to put a sword through your eye and out the back of your skull!
Arya Stark
You could say "there's a big spike in sales", but that doesn't tell you how many people are playing the game. It certainly doesn't tell you how many people bought the game. The only thing you can compare XFire numbers to is XFire. For instance, if the XFire population of a game drops 80%, does that mean the overall game's population drops 80%? No. Look at SWToR's numbers. Look at any MMO post release for that matter. In order for there to be a comparable drop in actual game numbers, the games would have to start with double or triple the number of players they actually start with.
The F-ing point is that it has meaning.
What meaning? Is it an indescribable meaning? The meaning certainly has nothing to do with accuracy, or some relation between XFire numbers and a game's actual population. There's possibly a relation between XFire's current numbers and the number of concurrent players in a game, but the only game where it's possible to see the relation is with Eve, because they are the only game that publishes their numbers. Here's an experiment for anyone with the interest and time. Take Eve's concurrent player population daily over a period of three weeks or so. At the same time, take XFire's numbers over the same period of time for Eve. Try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to their overall subscription numbers, since they publish those numbers, and then try to relate Eve's concurrent player numbers to XFire's player numbers. The final step is to let everyone know what the relation is between XFire's numbers and Eve's concurrent player numbers and the relation between Eve's concurrent player numbers and their subscription numbers. Since XFire has meaning, and is a population estimation tool, this experiment can't possibly end in anything but success.
darn... you were exactly correct. Both Eve and XFire showed Eve's numbers going down during the week and up on the weekends. just like life.. XFire has meaning!
predict, measure, compare, report - learn it, live it, worship it
Sz
Whoa buddy. You don't get a just cookie yet. Show the relation between the concurrent players and the subscriptions.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
There have been a couple of research papers done on XFire players themselves, and the "average" XFire player plays a lot of games, and tends to move from game to game a good bit. There's no public information available like that by category though. For instance, of all the XFire players who played MMOs, how long do they average playing an MMO per week and overall? What was the longest they spent playing an MMO and the shortest? I mean, that information does exist, but that's the information that XFire gets to sell, not the information that they let random people scoop up and use.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
just like the percentages we use for the US Presidential Election Polls...
awww, TheCrow2k, your clan is SO normally distributed.
everybody wants to be non-parametric but, only us on the bottom of the bell get to brag.
Sz
THOSE studies were low pop. studies...
you think you and i have the same DNA... seems like it.
Sz
"... too random..."
beginning statistics users (ie. engineering students) are WAY funny
Sz
what i find way funny is you actully think a program that only a percentage of players use can be used to track to overall population of a game.
fact xfire dose not have a set percentage of xfire users to non xfires user in each game or even in the same game at diffrent times of day.
fact useing a non stable percentage as a basis for estimateing population dousnt work.
this is why xfire can not be used for reliable judgement of a games population
F2P may be the way of the future, but ya know they dont make them like they used to
Proper Grammer & spelling are extra, corrections will be LOL at.
fact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election
fact: you deciding it is a non stable percentage is funny
just because you can't do these things doesn't mean intelligent life can't
Sz
"... too random..." beginning statistics users (ie. engineering students) are WAY funny Sz
what i find way funny is you actully think a program that only a percentage of players use can be used to track to overall population of a game.
fact xfire dose not have a set percentage of xfire users to non xfires user in each game or even in the same game at diffrent times of day.
fact useing a non stable percentage as a basis for estimateing population dousnt work.
this is why xfire can not be used for reliable judgement of a games population
If they had some sort of profile information on the people participating, they could build models that would tell them what kinds of players liked what kinds of games. Stuff like that is worth a little bit of money. That's why we don't see any of that information. This is also what makes me think XFire is useless as a population estimation tool. That's just not what it's for. Which is why they give away the "population" information for free. It's not worth anything.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
"... too random..." beginning statistics users (ie. engineering students) are WAY funny Sz
what i find way funny is you actully think a program that only a percentage of players use can be used to track to overall population of a game. fact xfire dose not have a set percentage of xfire users to non xfires user in each game or even in the same game at diffrent times of day. fact useing a non stable percentage as a basis for estimateing population dousnt work. this is why xfire can not be used for reliable judgement of a games population
fact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election
fact: you deciding it is a non stable percentage is funny
just because you can't do these things doesn't mean intelligent life can't
Sz
Fact: The methods used by pollsters to predict elections isn't anything at all like what XFire does.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
No, it can't.
Unless you took a survey of every MMORPG player in ever single MMORPG to find out if they used xfire so you can find the exact percentage for each game, in which case you would know the counts without xfire.
At a bare minimum you would have to run a model for every single MMORPG to try to determine what % of its players use xfire. its reasonable to believe a game like TERA has more than 5% of its players using xfire, whereas a game like EQ1 likely has less than 1/10 of a percent. And since we would be using models, the numbers wouldnt be exact.
You probably could get a ballpark figure with 5-10% margin of error but it would take a long time to do all the studies necessary to set up models.
"No it can't" or "you probably could"?
come back when you can put a single thought together.
your model idea is close but not how it was done... at least YOU are warm.
Sz
I will work with you on Operational Numbers (Stats) once we work on your comprehension of English structure.
I said, "fact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election"
You said, "Fact: The methods used by pollsters to predict elections isn't anything at all like what XFire does."
Anything seem strange or twisted here? I said how WE did it and you changed to how pollsters do it.
I seriously doubt you know how WE did it OR how THEY do it but, relax and understand that XFire is a sample set and that sample set is used by vendors and consumers. You can argue, forever, that it is not valid and yet it IS used; and used accurately given the correct tools.
I am bored by this.. lets go talk about the sinister ambitions of F2P or why GW2 failed.
Sz
"... too random..." beginning statistics users (ie. engineering students) are WAY funny Sz
what i find way funny is you actully think a program that only a percentage of players use can be used to track to overall population of a game. fact xfire dose not have a set percentage of xfire users to non xfires user in each game or even in the same game at diffrent times of day. fact useing a non stable percentage as a basis for estimateing population dousnt work. this is why xfire can not be used for reliable judgement of a games population
fact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election fact: you deciding it is a non stable percentage is funny just because you can't do these things doesn't mean intelligent life can't Sz
Fact: The methods used by pollsters to predict elections isn't anything at all like what XFire does.
I will work with you on Operational Numbers (Stats) once we work on your comprehension of English structure.
I said, "fact: we were able to use same procedure to predict President Obama's election"
You said, "Fact: The methods used by pollsters to predict elections isn't anything at all like what XFire does."
Anything seem strange or twisted here? I said how WE did it and you changed to how pollsters do it.
I seriously doubt you know how WE did it OR how THEY do it but, relax and understand that XFire is a sample set and that sample set is used by vendors and consumers. You can argue, forever, that it is not valid and yet it IS used; and used accurately given the correct tools.
I am bored by this.. lets go talk about the sinister ambitions of F2P or why GW2 failed.
Sz
Step One: What question is being asked. Election Polls: Who will be the next president. Xfire: ?
Step Two: Target demographics that will lead to getting the right answer. So for an election poll, non-voting Wiccans would not be relevant, and would be ignored. For XFire, it's just anyone who happens to sign up.
Step Three: Throw out irrelevant information: For election polls, this is the step where the non-voting Wiccans responses are ignored. For XFire, this is where nothing is ignored, no matter how irrelevant.
Step Four: Actually determine an answer. In election polls, this is where they knew Obama was going to win the election. For XFire it's what? No, really, what is the answer? What was the question? Because it wasn't "How many people are playing SWToR".
XFire isn't anything like an election poll because XFire isn't a poll. It's an information service for developers and marketers. The people using XFire aren't the customers, and the people looking at the website aren't the customers either. They are the product.
Look at the percentage of XFire's homepage devoted to advertising for visitors, compared to the percentage of MMORPG.com's website devoted to advertising. XFire is making money somewhere, but it's not website advertising. They are selling the information they collect to developers and marketers, because those are their customers. You think Funcom needs XFire to know how many people are playing Age of Conan? They want to know what kinds of people are playing AoC, and what those people are interested in buying. Someone developing a new game wants to know what kinds of features people are taking screenshots of, and what kinds of videos they are posting. The game population angle is a side show.
I can not remember winning or losing a single debate on the internet.
Self-pity imprisons us in the walls of our own self-absorption. The whole world shrinks down to the size of our problem, and the more we dwell on it, the smaller we are and the larger the problem seems to grow.
You should probably drop the whole condescending routine, because you lack the basic comprehension of the English language to pull it off.
You said you could get an *exact* number. I said you can't, but could probably get a rough ballpark number. Exact isn't really a big vocabulary word, so maybe its the phrase 'ballpark' that's throwing you off? But even so the context of the sentence should clue you in to what it represents.
My suggestion is you stop posting before you embarrass yourself any further.