Does this game stand a chance?

Antipathy

Good points

Nice atmosphere - the game feels very addictive. It's hard to put a finger on it, but there's something about the game that makes me want to keep coming back.

New audience - the game seems to be attracting a new audience who haven't played MMOs before. I could tell by the (poor) quality of many of the tanks I saw over the weekend - both in dungeons and in guildhests. In the long run attracting new blood into the hobby is a good thing, even if we have to put up with a few failed dungeon runs. I get the impression that some of these people come from a MOBA background, whilst others are console gamers. When these new audiences are combined with the Japanese players and FFXI veterans,  I wouldn't be surprised if the game will gather the strength to survive, regardless of what MMO regulars think.

Bugs

There are still quite blatant bugs in the game, which is a little disconcerting a week before launch. I saw nothing in game chat about the strange error codes reported on this site and elsewhere. However we did suffer from random dcs. Whilst I was disconnected several times myself, my worst experience was when I was in a dungeon group and our tank dc'd. The game showed him as offline and then later as not being in the group - except in some sense he was still part of the group (we could tell from the length of time a loot roll took). I couldn't see any option to invite people to the group (maybe there is a command line for it?). The game seems as if it is built to auto-find replacements - except that wasn't working when it thought we had a tank and we didn't. So the dungeon run had to be abandoned

The grind

In each of the three areas, there's enough quests to level a single class. So after having levelled my Thaumaturge from levels 1-20 in the Ul'dah area, when I went to level Pugilist from 1-15 in the same area I had to spend some time just chain killing monsters to level. It's true that fates give healthy chunks of XP, and guildheists and huntings logs both help. Neither are enough. Whilst this wasn't too bad getting to 15, I'd imagine that progression will slow down considerably at higher levels. I doubt many of today's gamers will be prepared to pay a subscription to chain-grind monsters (and yes, I know that FFXI and EQ both involed heavy amounts of grinding, but at least that was group grinding, which is better than FFXIVs solo grinding).

For crafters and gathers, the grind kicks in sooner, and will be harder. Crafts level at different speeds, with perhaps weaving taking longest to level (due to the many sub-combines) and leatherworking being relatively easy. Generally speaking reaching level 5 with a crafting profession is trivial, level 10 isn't hard, but between 10 and 20, levelling slows down a lot. We can glimpse past the 20 cap of the open beta by looking at achievements to see how crafting slows down:

For each craft:

1st achievement: Craft 50 level 1-10 items
2nd achievement: Craft 300 level 11-20 items
3rd achievement: Craft 750 level 21-30 items
4th achievement: Craft 1500 level 31-40 items
5th achievement: Craft 3000 level 41-50 items

For gathering, achievements hint at a similarly harsh progression - for example the 5th tier of mining has 3 achievements, each involving mining 4000 level 41-50 items.

Crafting higher level items will additionally become harder because at 20+ players will no longer be able to buy ingredients from the guild vendors, but will instead have to go out into the world and gather them, or buy them from other players.

I suspect most serious players will eventually grit their teeth and level a couple of crafts to 20 (at least in order to repair their own gear). However very few players will put up with the grind in order to go much further.

The longer term

Many players levelled at least one class to the cap of 20 within a day or two of the beta starting.

I suspect this means that a substantial portion of the playerbase will hit maximum level of 50 and also complete at least the easily accessible portions of the main plot quest during that time (it's possible they may not complete it all - it depends how heavily group and raid content is involved and whether that content is gated). On the other hand it's possible that levelling will slow exponentially (like crafting). This may prevent most players from reaching the cap - but would invite the opposite problem of complaints about grind - since I doubt the number of quests available will also grow at an exponential rate.

So in a months time, will we have a substantial portion of the playerbase feeling as if they've completed the game and that it's time to move on (the curse of modern MMOs - e.g. see SWTOR), or will they feel that there's still plenty more to do?

I understand that more content kicks in at level 20. In particular grand companies become available (I deliberately avoided leves during the free week, in order to save them for this). It's a little disconcerting that they haven't allowed us to see this content. All we can do is take it on trust - which, after 1.0, is a little disconcerting.

Missing content

There's a substantial amount of content that's been talked about but is unlikely to be present at launch. Examples include housing, PvP, and other classes/jobs  (in particular the musketeer, which i suspect will be the 3rd class for Limsa). If these become available quickly, this may substantially boost the games chance of success.

Conclusion

I want this game to succeed. The MMO industry has seen far too many games that were either outright disasters (Vanguard, Warhammer, FFXIV 1.0) or that may have been profitable on paper (LOTRO, Rift, SWTOR, GW2), but still disappointed a large majority of their potential player base, leaving an impression of failure.

I want a game that people can commit to. Play long term. Form a stable community, not just an unstable island in the sea of endlessly drifting F2P players.

Will this be that game? It will be much easier to tell in a weeks time when we all get to see the 20+ content. Until then, all we have is our hopes, and our doubts. Far too many doubts.

Psychei

I predict it will be just fine.

shockwaved1

This game easily will have tenure. NUFF SAID

Fly666monkey

No.

cerocks

highest concurrent players in a beta ever? the ip is alive and well, it'll do fine

http://ffxiv.zam.com/forum.html?forum=152&mid=137683786295127884&p=1

blastermaster

I sure wish them that it does, cause they certainly deserve it.

I don't think any other studio would have done what they did, most would have simply try to milk their hardcore fan as much as they can and then shutdown the servers. Just for what SE did, I think they deserve it!

 

On a side note, regarding the grind aspect, and what OP said about just having enough quests to level 1 class in each starting zone.. that may be right if you just do quests.. but you are responsible for the way you play.

There are numerous other ways to level and if you want to do all the quests on your first class, you decide to do it. If instead, you mix quests, levequest, dungeons, FATE, exploring/grinding mobs for mats, grand company stuff, etc.  You will see that you will outlevel a bunch of those quests, that will then be accessible for your other classes. 

 

Psychei

Funny but don't all games have just enough quests to level one class oh wait most game you have to start a new character to level a second class.

1 point for Square!

Waan

Think it will do fine. About leveling different classes: the greater the level difference is between your highest class and the one you are playing, the more exp you will gain. So if you start playing a second class later on, you might still have to grind a bit, but less.

biljac

Not sure about the crafting but I also thought the gathering (mining/botany) were going to be just terrible grind but it appears that if you gear appropriately, i.e. best gear you can obtain, the tools (actions/traits) you gain while leveling up actually lessened the grind. I was able to gain more HQ items which in turn granted more exp shortening the leveling time or at least it seemed so to me.

Mithrandolir

Originally posted by shockwaved1
This game easily will have tenure. NUFF SAID

^ this.

I have not a single worry about this games longevity.

 

Psychei

Originally posted by Mithrandolir

Originally posted by shockwaved1
This game easily will have tenure. NUFF SAID

^ this.

I have not a single worry about this games longevity.

 

Nobody should worry about the longevity its a great game and even mediocre games make it these days. 

dreamsofwar

Everquest is still going. FFXI is still going, so yes I think after all the effort the devs put in I really think it does stand a chance.

Wizardry

No there is a HUGE difference from a sub class game and a one class game.Even SOE is catching on,just took them a long time to realize it.

As mentioned by another poster somewhere,you don't HAVE to follow hand holding mechanics,you can form a group and fight/xp that way.They only added some hand holding because that si what a lot of players ,especially solo players wanted.

There is tons to do in crafting as well.The more classes you level the more versatile your player will be unless you choose to go the JOB route and be a more dedicated Alliance/group player.

Don't forget and i think many don't realize it because they have not played with Square Enix before,there will be a LOT more added to this game.It all depends on how much support the developer gets,it is all about money,they will still support the game no matter but if there is solid support,they will really put back into the game.

Square just added into FFXI the ability for players to play the game creatures,yet more and more content ideas from this developer.Expect the same in FFXIV.

 

 

Shauneepeak

I had the same exact dungeon bug happen to me we lost our tank and then lost a healer we had gotten and then an Arc we had tried to get in with us around 3 times. I guess this had been acknowledged by Square and that they were working on it as the beta came to a close.

 

Also in regards to leveling classes when you are out of quests and heists simply do leves if you learn which ones are fast you can repeatedly get a nice chunk of exp every few minutes. Now I believe basic leves have a daily cap, correct? But the Guildleves do not I ran those for a few hours on end in phase 3 to obtain my chocobo, chocobo armour, and just for some nice leveling and never hit a cap.

Also don't underestimate dungeon running it is some of the very best exp in the game especially in a well coordinated group also always remember to eat some food before and while running the dungeon the 3% exp bonus really adds up when you are pulling in 50k+ experience from a single dungeon.

 

Also that atmosphere you couldn't quite put your finger on I think that's simply Final Fantasy truly feeling like Final Fantasy. I feel that should XV end up being a disappointment we may get a huge surge of Final Fantasy fans who have not already purchased this game or have never played an MMO because, to me at least, this truly does have the feel of an old PS1/PS2 RPG in a good way.

 

I see this game lasting quite a while long as Square gives us some nice regular updates and expansions every now and then.