10 million Skyrim fans

Lord.Bachus

But for how many is the subscription a reason not to buy the game?

 

I dont see them selling 10 million copies anytime soon... even tough next to the 10 million officially sold copies there are more then the double of that illegal copies roaming the world...

 

The majority of casual gamers still has a problem paying a monthly subscription for online gaming...

 

How many copies do they plan to sell in the first year after release?

goldtoof

I would have thought not being able to play it on their xbox would be a bigger factor.

Kremchek

No matter what their projections are...I'm sure the game will make money if it is a good MMO or a good Elder Scrolls game. It will just have different fans.

Arglebargle

My guess is two to three million.  In sales anyway.  Subscriptions is another matter.

SavageHorizon

Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

 I dont see them selling 10 million copies anytime soon... 

 

But you had no problem predicting that ArenaNet would sell more copies of GW2 than Blizzard's WOW, right lol.

Think you are underestimating the pull of the IP and it's followers. The last time we saw something like this was with WOW and battle.net fans never having played a MMO before but ended up playing WOW.

Like the game or not, TESO will IMO be the first western MMO that get's close to the numbers of WOW.

And unlike your other GW2 prediction, sub based mmo didn't die with the release of GW2. Many players have no problem paying a sub for a decent MMO. The pull of the IP will have people paying a sub without even thinking about it.

 

Scalpless

I'd wager this being an MMO is the bigger issue for those fans. Most of the people I know are very negative towards MMOs, because they're grindy and have dull quests.

Lord.Bachus

Originally posted by SavageHorizon

Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

 I dont see them selling 10 million copies anytime soon... 

 

But you had no problem predicting that ArenaNet would sell more copies of GW2 than Blizzard's WOW, right lol.

Think you are underestimating the pull of the IP and it's followers. The last time we saw something like this was with WOW and battle.net fans never having played a MMO before but ended up playing WOW.

Like the game or not, TESO will IMO be the first western MMO that get's close to the numbers of WOW.

And unlike your other GW2 prediction, sub based mmo didn't die with the release of GW2. Many players have no problem paying a sub for a decent MMO. The pull of the IP will have people paying a sub without even thinking about it.

 

Please quote me on that...

 

All i predicted was GW2 being an awesome game, which it still is...  actually i predcited 3 million copies in the first year for GW2, which was pretty accurate...

 

This game is much harder to predict, as there are mnay console players either stuck with the old consoles not fit to play the game, or they dont intend to push the extra money to play online....  As someone else noted, 3 million sales in the first year could also be pretty acurate for this title, i think even more because of the IP... but then there are like 30 million potential customers and only havin 10% buy your product aint that much...

SavageHorizon

Originally posted by Scalpless
I'd wager this being an MMO is the bigger issue for those fans. Most of the people I know are very negative towards MMOs, because they're grindy and have dull quests.

Right now it maybe but i'll wager that will change once they actually have a chance to play the game. How did you feel playing your first mmo especially if it's your favorite IP.

If fans get to actually try the game i think it will be to much of a pull.

Lord.Bachus

Originally posted by Scalpless
I'd wager this being an MMO is the bigger issue for those fans. Most of the people I know are very negative towards MMOs, because they're grindy and have dull quests.

Actually the game will feel and play like Skyrim 2.....  its first elder scroll and seccondly MMO, my biggest worries are the game not being MMO enough to sattisfy most players in the long term..

 

MMo games having dull quests, is something from the past on top of that, actually even WoW has some very fun questlines these days, and in games like SWTOR, LOTRO and TSW quests are equall to the best single player RPG's. I dont see how TESO would have dull quests...

apocoluster

 Are we just to assume that only sky rim fans will buy Teso.  What about the rest of the us.  Or do you just assume that all mmo players are sky rim fans. I know of atleast one mmo fan who was not impressed by sky rim

My guess is 5 million box sales within the first year but with 80% attrition. Leaving a healthy 1mil subs at te end of its first year and signsofmslow continued growth.  I also

predict asshats coming out of te woodwork screaming the game died or was fail. Not much of a prediction there we know it's going to happen

Volgore

I'm a huge Skyrim and Oblivion fan and hence WILL NOT buy teso.

My prediction is a huge discount 3-4 month after release what makes them scratch the 2mio sales mark, huge loss of players within 6 month, game dead within 1.5years, f2p when it doesnt even matter anymore.

Zenimax just cannot properly pull something as big as this off and do the IP justice, just like Turbine was never able to carry an IP as big as Lotro or Mythic with WAR.

Seen it way too often to still fall for it...it's always the wrong studio that somehow manages to get the license of a great IP and then delivers a bad game which goes down the drain fast.

Oph8

Originally posted by Volgore

I'm a huge Skyrim and Oblivion fan and hence WILL NOT buy teso.

My prediction is a huge discount 3-4 month after release what makes them scratch the 2mio sales mark, huge loss of players within 6 month, game dead within 1.5years, f2p when it doesnt even matter anymore.

Zenimax just cannot properly pull something as big as this off and do the IP justice, just like Turbine was never able to carry an IP as big as Lotro or Mythic with WAR.

Seen it way too often to still fall for it...it's always the wrong studio that somehow manages to get the license of a great IP and then delivers a bad game which goes down the drain fast.

 

I can understand your prediction if the game was bad. But the game isn't bad, it's actually very good. Turbine and LOTRO are different stories. Zenimax can do whatever they want to the lore as they see fit. Also, your information is not accurate, Zenimax is the RIGHT studio. Zenimax OWNS bethesda software and they're using talent from both studios to complete the game.

That's the PC version that is ;-)

 

rojoArcueid

i may be horribly wrong (which i doubt) but im sure TESO will not sell as much as Skyrim did. There is still a huge amount of people playing and replaying Skyrim with mods to just go get a TESO mmo with a subscription that will still limit their options. A lot of people will stick to Skyrim. I hope TESO does well but i cant see them becoming the next big success when Skyrim is still there kicking asses with the modding community. TESO clearly doesnt offer (based on what we know so far) the amount of freedom and options we can get in Skyrim without a sub. We will see when it launches.

tasburath

Originally posted by SavageHorizon

Like the game or not, TESO will IMO be the first western MMO that get's close to the numbers of WOW.

 

WoW would not reach WoW numbers if it was released today. 

People seem to forget that there were less than a handful of MMOs when WoW was released.  The only real competitor to WoW was EverQuest 2.  EQ2's graphics engine was so horribly bad and required such high end hardware to run decently, it never stood a chance.

The market is so saturated with MMOs now that it will be nearly impossible to replicate WoW's success, short of paying people to play the game.

I know a few people that have played the TESO beta.  If what they are telling me is true, there will be a lot of disappointed people.

Classicstar

Steam sold around 3 million copies
Xbox around 7.5million copies
PS3 around 5 million copies
Plus all douche bags who dl it illegally

Thats maybe hardcore fans 4million and potential fans 4 million.

So i predict avarage 3 million max maybe first year same as GW2 unless game is hugely moddeble and copy of solo games(but its not) you could count those 3 million pc gamers go for it but its a very mmoish game so not many true fans will go for TESO.

3 mill max not more.

Classicstar

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Originally posted by tasburath
Originally posted by SavageHorizon Like the game or not, TESO will IMO be the first western MMO that get's close to the numbers of WOW.

 

WoW would not reach WoW numbers if it was released today. 

People seem to forget that there were less than a handful of MMOs when WoW was released.  The only real competitor to WoW was EverQuest 2.  EQ2's graphics engine was so horribly bad and required such high end hardware to run decently, it never stood a chance.

The market is so saturated with MMOs now that it will be nearly impossible to replicate WoW's success, short of paying people to play the game.

I know a few people that have played the TESO beta.  If what they are telling me is true, there will be a lot of disappointed people.

---

Linegae 2 (4million)at the time was competiton not EQ2(200k players).

WoW was released with failor AC2 some old mmo's and asian mmo's like lineage.

It had no competions at all at the time and with huge fanbase like warcraft/diablo it was bound to be a succes.

TESO will be released like if its on other planet so different from 2004 you can't compare it now hundreds of free2play mmo's and many failors even tho it have huge fanbase with skyrim its still very unclear if it have nay succes.

deakon

3-4 million in the first few months easily

They already have over 3m signed up for beta (back in august) and the beta is pc only sp once you factor in console owners my prediction might even be pessimistic tbh.

 

How well they keep the players after the first few months will be up to the quality of the game and frequency of content updates, which is anyone's guess at this stage

Scalpless

Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

Originally posted by Scalpless
I'd wager this being an MMO is the bigger issue for those fans. Most of the people I know are very negative towards MMOs, because they're grindy and have dull quests.

Actually the game will feel and play like Skyrim 2.....  its first elder scroll and seccondly MMO, my biggest worries are the game not being MMO enough to sattisfy most players in the long term..

That's what the devs keep saying, but I have little reason to trust them. The gameplay I've seen sure didn't look like Skyrim 2.

MMo games having dull quests, is something from the past on top of that, actually even WoW has some very fun questlines these days, and in games like SWTOR, LOTRO and TSW quests are equall to the best single player RPG's. I dont see how TESO would have dull quests...

They're not even close. TOR and TSW have voiced and sometimes well-written quests, but they're still completely linear. This is what a good SP RPG quest looks like:

http://fallout.wikia.com/wiki/Beyond_the_Beef

Quest quality wise, the difference between the best SP RPGs like The Witcher 1/2, Deus Ex or New Vegas and the best MMOs is enormous. Of course, Skyrim's fans may be a bit more tolerant of bad quests, because Skyrim's quests are mostly a bit dull and linear, too.

Classicstar

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Originally posted by Volgore
I'm a huge Skyrim and Oblivion fan and hence WILL NOT buy teso.

My prediction is a huge discount 3-4 month after release what makes them scratch the 2mio sales mark, huge loss of players within 6 month, game dead within 1.5years, f2p when it doesnt even matter anymore.

Zenimax just cannot properly pull something as big as this off and do the IP justice, just like Turbine was never able to carry an IP as big as Lotro or Mythic with WAR.

Seen it way too often to still fall for it...it's always the wrong studio that somehow manages to get the license of a great IP and then delivers a bad game which goes down the drain fast.

---

Zenimax is almost bethesda its already for a very longtime mother company and betehsda its independed when it comes to making the elderscroll mmo game.

I very doub that zenimax dont use and listend to bethesda if its about TESO.

Its only that bethesda and zenimax want a money grab cash in on succes of skyrim and that blind them from follow formula solo games so it will fail as mmo but not becouse of zenimax just becouse they make same mistake as all before try beat WoW and use this as a cashcow.

They will never reach the succes of Skyrim that game is a league on its own it will never be passed by this TESO abomination.

You can't btw not predict on BETA sign ups there freeloaders when the beta is over they go to next beta most dont even test they just wanne free ride.

goldtoof

Err zenimax own

Arkane & ID amongst others, you may have heard of some of their games like dishonoured & quake.

rojoArcueid

Originally posted by Scalpless

Quest quality wise, the difference between the best SP RPGs like The Witcher 1/2, Deus Ex or New Vegas and the best MMOs is enormous. Of course, Skyrim's fans may be a bit more tolerant of bad quests, because Skyrim's quests are mostly a bit dull and linear, too.

i agree. But what makes the questing in Skyrim actually fun and interesting is the world itself. Usually when you are walking towards your questing area / objective you come across other stuffs that derail you from your goal in a much better way (dragon, exploration, some guys trying to ambush you, a lot of unexpected stuff) so yoy dont feel like its an annoyance. That doesnt happen in mmorpgs. In an mmorpg you are walking towards your linear and dull objective and the only thing that crosses your way is other annoying mobs that aggro you and you just curse at the waste of time.

Fusion

Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

Originally posted by Scalpless
I'd wager this being an MMO is the bigger issue for those fans. Most of the people I know are very negative towards MMOs, because they're grindy and have dull quests.

Actually the game will feel and play like Skyrim 2.....  its first elder scroll and seccondly MMO, my biggest worries are the game not being MMO enough to sattisfy most players in the long term..

MMO's haven't been "long term" for almost a decade now, but only for a tiny fraction of MMO gamers. Funny how some folks still think MMO's will last for years (singleplayer games rarely last even a month) with similar budgets to that of singleplayer games, sometimes bit higher, but the workload is 10x more and MMO's usually last atleast a month or two. So i think the "longevity" of MMO's as current is spot on for the money, anyone thinking they SHOULD last 6 months and more are just delusional.

 

rojoArcueid

Originally posted by Fusion

 

MMO's haven't been "long term" for almost a decade now, but only for a tiny fraction of MMO gamers.

 

this is enough reason why they shouldnt have subscriptions. Just sell the box and expand the game with priced content expansions. If they want to appeal to the masses only for a short time then they will fail hard and its a sign for the majority to wait for a f2p change. Otherwise they would make the game non solo friendly and focus on long term quality content to actually justify the constant subscription.

Kyleran

Originally posted by Fusion

Originally posted by Lord.Bachus

Originally posted by Scalpless
I'd wager this being an MMO is the bigger issue for those fans. Most of the people I know are very negative towards MMOs, because they're grindy and have dull quests.

Actually the game will feel and play like Skyrim 2.....  its first elder scroll and seccondly MMO, my biggest worries are the game not being MMO enough to sattisfy most players in the long term..

MMO's haven't been "long term" for almost a decade now, but only for a tiny fraction of MMO gamers. Funny how some folks still think MMO's will last for years (singleplayer games rarely last even a month) with similar budgets to that of singleplayer games, sometimes bit higher, but the workload is 10x more and MMO's usually last atleast a month or two. So i think the "longevity" of MMO's as current is spot on for the money, anyone thinking they SHOULD last 6 months and more are just delusional.

 

Anyone creating MMORPG's and not trying to retain customers over the long term are just doing something wrong.

It is possible to keep a title interesting enough to keep people playing for years, just isn't how current MMO's are designed.

Heck, many fans of Skyrim played it for very long periods of time, for multiple reasons including modding, and MMORPG's can accomplish the same.

Can they retain everyone? No, for course not, some players just aren't wired that way (see Narius) but there is a substantial player base than can become loyal followers of a title if it provides them a solid entertainment value.

 

Oph8

Originally posted by Classicstar

 

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Originally posted by Volgore
I'm a huge Skyrim and Oblivion fan and hence WILL NOT buy teso.

 

My prediction is a huge discount 3-4 month after release what makes them scratch the 2mio sales mark, huge loss of players within 6 month, game dead within 1.5years, f2p when it doesnt even matter anymore.

Zenimax just cannot properly pull something as big as this off and do the IP justice, just like Turbine was never able to carry an IP as big as Lotro or Mythic with WAR.

Seen it way too often to still fall for it...it's always the wrong studio that somehow manages to get the license of a great IP and then delivers a bad game which goes down the drain fast.

---

 

Zenimax is almost bethesda its already for a very longtime mother company and betehsda its independed when it comes to making the elderscroll mmo game.

I very doub that zenimax dont use and listend to bethesda if its about TESO.

Its only that bethesda and zenimax want a money grab cash in on succes of skyrim and that blind them from follow formula solo games so it will fail as mmo but not becouse of zenimax just becouse they make same mistake as all before try beat WoW and use this as a cashcow.

They will never reach the succes of Skyrim that game is a league on its own it will never be passed by this TESO abomination.

You can't btw not predict on BETA sign ups there freeloaders when the beta is over they go to next beta most dont even test they just wanne free ride.

 

 

I'm sorry but your completely wrong. Bethesda and Zenimax are working together on ESO. Beth has the final say so on a lot of the content and marketing. Zenimax may be working on 90% of the game whereas Bethesda is overseeing the project. Lore, content, combat gets the checkmark from Bethesda before it gets pushed into the final product.

deakon

Originally posted by Classicstar

 

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Originally posted by Volgore
I'm a huge Skyrim and Oblivion fan and hence WILL NOT buy teso.

 

My prediction is a huge discount 3-4 month after release what makes them scratch the 2mio sales mark, huge loss of players within 6 month, game dead within 1.5years, f2p when it doesnt even matter anymore.

Zenimax just cannot properly pull something as big as this off and do the IP justice, just like Turbine was never able to carry an IP as big as Lotro or Mythic with WAR.

Seen it way too often to still fall for it...it's always the wrong studio that somehow manages to get the license of a great IP and then delivers a bad game which goes down the drain fast.

---

 

Zenimax is almost bethesda its already for a very longtime mother company and betehsda its independed when it comes to making the elderscroll mmo game.

I very doub that zenimax dont use and listend to bethesda if its about TESO.

Its only that bethesda and zenimax want a money grab cash in on succes of skyrim and that blind them from follow formula solo games so it will fail as mmo but not becouse of zenimax just becouse they make same mistake as all before try beat WoW and use this as a cashcow.

They will never reach the succes of Skyrim that game is a league on its own it will never be passed by this TESO abomination.

You can't btw not predict on BETA sign ups there freeloaders when the beta is over they go to next beta most dont even test they just wanne free ride.

 

Beta sign ups are the best indicator of interest in a game pre launch tho and as the beta is only available to pc players and not where the vast majority of tes players play (consoles), 3m sign ups shows that there is a hell of a lot of interest in the game. I cant think of any other pre-release mmo that has had that many beta sign ups, even swtor only had 2 million, and that went onto sell 2 million in 1month without the aid of cross platform and with the disadvantage of having pretty stale and typical mmo gameplay