Pathfinder's Dancey on the 'broken AAA themepark financial model'

MumboJumbo

Pathfinder's Dancey on the 'broken AAA themepark financial model'

>"embedded a lengthy GamesBeat video stream after the break. The Pathfinder presentation starts around the 03:23:00 mark."

furbans

I'm a follower of PFO and would back it in a second if they offered a late backers with EE chance as I like what they are trying to do, but he just pisses me off with his arrogance in this. 

 

Yes there is a huge initial spike that all MMOs has and then there is a massive plummet, but that does not mean that the games are not successful.  And if he thinks PFO will be any different he is sorely mistaken.  SWTOR and Rift are still highly profitable games, in fact they are imitating Rift's "failure" with their business model.  Actually if anything companies are smart and they know full well that consumers are ready to consume the next new "shiney" even though that might just be a month or two sub if any.  That is still a shit ton of initial revenue.  Not to mention the demographics in the MMO community has changed dramatically and is ever changing.

 

All what he is doing is a used car salesman pitch for his product, and if a used car salesman ever told me anything I would believe not a shred of his "truth."  If Ryan is going to do this he needs to publish numbers and not some line that chances are he could just have easily made up.  Sure it proves a point but he makes it appear that those games failed when in fact that were trudging along successful.

 

Ryan bashes on every MMO out there.  From DF to DAoC to ESO to EQN to any and every MMO just about with the exception of EVE, which one wonders about the degree of the bias factor since he did work there several years, and yet thinks he will be THE ONE that will change the MMO industry (even says percisely that in the video).  Not saying he is full of shit but I really don't take anything he says with much creditability as he never really gives any concrete evidence or proof or he blemishes it to suit his needs.  All he has is ideals atm, which many have great ideals but it's making those ideals a reality that eludes many.

iridescence

Originally posted by furbans

 I'm a follower of PFO and would back it in a second if they offered a late backers with EE chance as I like 

 

Pretty sure that you can still get EE  access for everything except the very first month if you back it now.

 

As for the rest of your rant, I think he is not being arrogant but simply highlighting differences between Goblinworks business model and other major MMOs. Rift may be in the black (I'm definitely under the impression that SWTOR is a net money loser) but one gets the impression that part of the business model of some of these MMOs is to build up a lot of hype and sell a lot of boxes, knowing they don't have the content to really sustain it, so in a few months you're left with a somewhat disappointing F2P game.

 

PFO will start small and hopefully get bigger and better over time. it's a totally different idea to every MMO I can think of other than EVE. Most of them aim to start with a bang and, intentionally or not,  kind of fizzle out from there. Whether this is the more financially successful model I can't say, but I certainly do know which model I prefer as an MMO consumer. I have a lot of faith (and have put a fair amount of money by my standards) on PFO being a game-changing MMO. Nothing I've read gives me anything but positive feelings about it so far.

MumboJumbo

 

Originally posted by furbans

I'm a follower of PFO and would back it in a second if they offered a late backers with EE chance as I like what they are trying to do, but he just pisses me off with his arrogance in this. 

 

1. Goblinworks will open up access later for those that are interested in backing minus some options and as above month 2 or later.

2. I think any CEO of a mmorpg company has to be borderline over-confident aka arrogant to have conviction that they can make success in a tough industry? Bear in mind it was a 4 minute spiel on a subject where he could speak a whole hour on this! The hyperbole is part of the presentation and so needs to be exaggerated and "flash".

 

Originally posted by furbans

Yes there is a huge initial spike that all MMOs has and then there is a massive plummet, but that does not mean that the games are not successful.  And if he thinks PFO will be any different he is sorely mistaken.  SWTOR and Rift are still highly profitable games, in fact they are imitating Rift's "failure" with their business model.  Actually if anything companies are smart and they know full well that consumers are ready to consume the next new "shiney" even though that might just be a month or two sub if any.  That is still a shit ton of initial revenue.  Not to mention the demographics in the MMO community has changed dramatically and is ever changing.

 

You jump from point to point, so I'm just going to say, the above "pattern" qualifies the mmorpg as a disposable game of limited/finite playtime for any given player. Agreed? Well the take home is that that does not work for the necessary upfront investment from investors on the returns they expect for the quantity of cash locked up for years of development and exposed to so much risk.

Instead, reducing overhead, changing the design model, the intention is convert mmorpgs into smaller niche games but with smaller upfront cost and risk but longer tail of player engagement and retention.

I mean I enjoyed WAR but it went from 800,000 downwards and is closing in December. It had a good run for 5yrs and I'm not sure what it's final revenue vs profit line was? But it depends who's view your asking for.

 

Originally posted by furbans

Ryan bashes on every MMO out there.  From DF to DAoC to ESO to EQN to any and every MMO just about with the exception of EVE, which one wonders about the degree of the bias factor since he did work there several years, and yet thinks he will be THE ONE that will change the MMO industry (even says percisely that in the video).  Not saying he is full of shit but I really don't take anything he says with much creditability as he never really gives any concrete evidence or proof or he blemishes it to suit his needs.  All he has is ideals atm, which many have great ideals but it's making those ideals a reality that eludes many.

 

Actually Ryan said DF was very popular but did not scale up and crashed at launch and never recovered. Concerning DAOC, I'm not sure, I assume it was successful but just could not compete with WOW or the investors pushed for Mythic to get more returns "like wow"? I'm not sure but I know they were working on daoc2 atst as WAR and then EA bought them and pushed daoc2 to one side.

I think EQN will be a lot of fun and for WOW / Minecraft / MMO / RPG players. Unfortunately I fear for ESO. It looks more like my kind of thing with it's lore and atmosphere than EQN's disney house (yeah just does not do it for me though the voxels are awesome). If it manages to get the Elder Scrolls fans and enough content for them for at least 2yrs of gameplay it might do well, but if they don't take to it, you could get the usual spike scenario above.

EQN will probably do well, building content to sell to other players. But I wonder how much SOE have invested in it and how much they need to return? They're pumping with a ton of very good tech eg Engine, Voxel Farm, Story Bricks and have scrapped 2 previous designs... which both shows it's strength but at a cost.

Anyway the market of mmorpgs is huge, horses for courses at the end of the day! But I think smaller mmorpgs leads to better choices for consumers and also hopefully fewer devs being fired after beta etc.