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Death of the F2P

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  • evilastroevilastro Member Posts: 4,270
    Originally posted by Precusor
    Originally posted by evilastroOriginally posted by Precusor

     

    Thats a great comeback, but Dungeon Fighter Online is a MMO, which is why I focused on that rather than LoL, because I knew some clown would point out that LoL isn't a MMO.  Also Maple Story and World of Tanks are also MMOs and earn more than WoW (i$326 million and $372 million respectively).  Guess that screws that defence doesn't it?

    If were lowering the bar on whats considered a MMo these days.. might as well put games like Call of duty into the MMo camp.

     

    Battlefield 3/4 has more players per server and much larger maps than WoT.. has unlocks and persistent upgrades.  is that a MMo too?

     

    I don't make the rules, but yes, all three are MMOs.  Dungeon Fighter Online is a lobby based MMO with shared towns.  Pretty much on par with Neverwinter and Vindictus.  I personally haven't played World of Tanks, but it is listed as a MMO on this site, so is Maple Story.  Go look at the descriptions of the games on this site, both clearly say MMORPG.  Maybe you should petition this site and pretty much everyone on the internet so that only WoW clones can be defined as MMORPGs.

    Any further comebacks?

  • mari3kmari3k Member Posts: 135

    Complete bullshit, 

    FTP is the future. Look at POE, a hand full australian indy devs made a game that destroyed mighty blizzards D3. It would never come this far when it was not FTP.

    Right now, the only mmo that Im willing to pay money for subs is WOW. Because I know what I get for it. I even quit FF14 , because of the subs.

    Step in the arena and break the wall down

  • CelciusCelcius Member RarePosts: 1,878
    Not only are you wrong, (Clearly, considering you aren't backing any of what you say with a source)  but there is evidence of the contrary. http://us7.campaign-archive1.com/?u=a2b9207999131347c9c0c44ce&id=f1b8fb8081&e=56010f2224
  • Four0SixFour0Six Member UncommonPosts: 1,175
    Originally posted by centkin
    Originally posted by Four0Six
    Originally posted by psiic

    It has been a long time coming but thankfully industry accountants and managers are starting to real study the numbers and realize F2P is not as lucrative as they once imagined.

     

    A F2P business model is ok for a stagnant game with limited staff and no designs on expansion or growth.

     

    The F2P business model is so support and resource heavy that it usually manages to pull an Ouroboros.

     

    The F2P business model has been found to be an unstable, unpredictable revenue source for a factor that directly effects investor support, staffing, and growth.

     

    The problems created by a free to play model outweigh the benefit..

     

    Publishers have begun to realize even though it is less cash in, it is better to 100 players willing to play $15 each, than  2000 paying $1 each. It's a logistics, stability, security, and support issue. Less cash in, but way less expenses out as well. 

     

    In the end it is all about the profit on the books at the end of the day, and not how many unpaying players you can load on to your servers in the mean.

    Actually the economics of it say they will continue to operate the F2P model as long as they can.

    It mostly has to do what economists call the "economic surplus". In short, if I find a subscription game to be worth $25 a month, but the sub is $15 a month then I, the consumer has received a $10 surplus. (like I said "in short)

    There is 1 model of business where the producer is able to obtain all the surplus. That model?  A Perfectly Price Discriminating Monopoly. They obtain all the surplus because they are able to charge each and every consumer exactly what they are willing to pay. I had thought that this was only a hypothetical situation. I was wrong.

    F2P games operate as these kinds of monopolies. They are a monopoly since each game can be considered a single product provided by a single producer. They Perfectly Price Discriminate, by charging from $0 to "as much as your willingness". So no consumer receive any surplus, it all goes to the producer.

    The key to understanding is that in a Perfectly Competitive Market the profit will be $0, not to say they aren't making money salaries are included as part of the cost curve. When a company charges a sub they have to compete with all the other games that charge a sub. also they loose access to any whose willingness to pay is less than the sub. By going to the F2P model they are able to carve out a small unique market, their game, where they are the monopolist. This allows them access to all the surplus and larger profits.

    Right I know, TLDR, and almost no one like economics save a few of us, and I need graphs and whatnots to have a clearer message but, this is why I have always disliked the F2P model and now I can explain why.

     

    Have a nice day,

    Four0Six  

    Of course this neglects the fact that someone would be inherently happier playing a game with an economic surplus.  If I play a game that I like with a $15 sub that I would have been willing to pay $50 per month for, the odds that I am going to continue playing longer is much higher. 

    Plus there is the fact that even if you are willing to spend $50 per month on a game, doesn't mean you are going to.  Plus you have the whole possibility that you overspend in a "Free" game.  This has happened in games and then you count things up and say -- naw too much and quit because you went overbudget.

    Then there is the perception that it "requires" $100 per month to be competitive.  This is especially relevant in games where they give out prizes to the top 32 in pvp type events.  You just aren't going to place regardless of skill unless you hit x payment level and even then winning will be a $$$$ contest. 

    Usually games shake out into a few classes of player:

    1) The FTP player who will NEVER pay -- you aren't going to get money out of this player.

    2) The FTP player who will buy occasionally for convenience only.  The player who will buy a $4 pack to double their storage then nothing more.

    3) The subscription player in a FTP.  This player is trying to budget $X into the game.

    4) The whale who will pay what it takes to win.

     

    The problem with most FTP games is they do not protect the #3s from the #4s.  It is the $25-$70 per month budget #3s that leave a game when the #4s become too powerful. 

    Technically a FTP game would do well to have servers with 1 2 and 4s on it (where the whales can easily trounce all) and servers where there are only #3s.  There is nothing that says you couldn't have a hybrid where the cash shop is available on most servers, but there are subscription servers as well.

    There is always surplus.

    In a competitive  market, the surplus is divided between the supply and demand. Not often equally, and most often the government has also taken a chunk, but still all parties receive some surplus. Either from paying less than their willingness, or selling for more than the cost, and finally stolen in the form of taxes (just including as point of fact not discussing).

    In my example of a Perfectly Price Discriminating Monopoly, henceforth referred to as F2P, the consumer receives no surplus. Why? Because the consumer is allowed to only pay at their willingness.

    Even though the volume of surplus is equivalent to a competitive market, the consumer is getting destroyed. Maybe not on an individual level, but as a whole they get exactly what they want, and nothing more. Whereas before anyone except those who were only willing to pay the subscription and not a single penny more, received exactly what they want. The rest? Well everyone who would pay plus one penny, would receive at least an extra pennies worth.

    In the end it ALWAYS comes down to the individual consumer, and what they wish to consume, and at what cost. I believe in the competitive, what I will call the MMO-meta-market, there is room for lots and lots of smaller markets. Some hybrid, some F2P, some sub, all of them. Allowing the consumers to continue to consume what they wish. Those that find value in sub games will, sub. Those that want to pay less, will pay less. I have been both, and for almost a year now I have been neither.

  • Fractal_AnalogyFractal_Analogy Member UncommonPosts: 350
    Originally posted by DMKano
    Originally posted by Fractal_Analogy


    There has been a massive misnomer in the MMORPG industry, & I will share with you some metrics that JS let loose in a close door meeting.

     

    Paraphrase: * 

    *That Free to Play games are played by EVERYONE, often times on many accounts. Not only that, but a single person might have 5~8 accounts (He stressed "own" the accounts, not "play" them) with several different games, but these people spends very little time in any of them.

    These games are advertised as FREE, so why not register for every F2P game..? More importantly, those registered accounts do not equate to anything what-so-ever. They are just an indication of what artistic style, or stylization, or game mechanic that the masses gravitate towards.

    That there is no real, sustainable revenues in a FREE game, because there is no sustainable customer.*

     

     

    And that^ is exactly what has happened, & what has skewed the whole MMORPG metrics.

    Not only that, but people who don't play MMORPG sign up for Free ones because they want to get their feet wet, but these people are learning the ropes (grouping and playing), not at all interested in ITEMS.

    This skew the actual people playing any particular game and the over-all industry metrics. There is actually 70% less F2P MMO players, than actual. Due to massive amounts of duplicate accounts.

     

     

     

     

     

    Which is why F2P games do not track # of users as a metric, it is not important to them as it doesnt translate to profits as it does in a sub game.

    If you were running a f2p game you would not be interested in how many users or accounts there are, you would be looking at daily/weekly/monthly profits.

    Sub games without an item shop only care for # of subs and hope to see those numbers stay the same or go up (almost never happens). There is no other option to generate revenue.

    F2P games give devs endless flexibility options to monetize the game - sub games only give a single option - hoping that they get another month out of a player.

    Game studios are realizing how much more freedom devs have in F2P games to generate revenue via item shop, it is night and day compared to a single chance to get it via sub.

     

     

    Please don't lie.

    I am part of the MMO industry, we track everything and use it. I sit behind closed doors all the time and are part of many discussions dealing with exactly this.

    Your post has no bearing and doesn't even follow busines101 sense. Your profits come from accounts, you track accounts. Your profits come from enticing those accounts to spend money in your Free game. (That is where marketing comes in.)

     

    Monetizing a game is not the only concern, the LIFE (duration of activity) of that monetization is critical.

    Most Free to Play games make their profits based on the fact that people spend money on a game, that is designed to have a short life, with very little support after release (As the teams are already moving on to the next cash cow). So providing additional support, or content is pointless for their Marketing strategy, because NOBODY intends on playing a F2P game for years.

     

    F2P mantra: Make your money, then provide lipservice and incentives to those who are whining to buy even more stuff..   all the while using that money to build the next Fruit Stand (TM).

     

     

     

     

  • nariusseldonnariusseldon Member EpicPosts: 27,775
    Originally posted by Precusor
    Originally posted by Reehay

    apparently youre wrong. very wrong lol.

    Facts and data are inconvenient huh. 

    http://massively.joystiq.com/2014/01/18/led-by-mobile-and-free-to-play-u-s-digital-sales-see-big-gains/

    http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/208762/US_digital_game_sales_grew_11_in_2013.php

    http://us7.campaign-archive1.com/?u=a2b9207999131347c9c0c44ce&id=f1b8fb8081&e=56010f2224

    Think were talking about MMos.

    We are talking about business models of games, and MMOs are games.

     

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer Member EpicPosts: 8,857
    Originally posted by psiic

    It has been a long time coming but thankfully industry accountants and managers are starting to real study the numbers and realize F2P is not as lucrative as they once imagined.

     

    Mind if I ask for the source(s)?

  • Superman0XSuperman0X Member RarePosts: 2,292
    Originally posted by Fractal_Analogy
    Originally posted by DMKano
    Originally posted by Fractal_Analogy


    There has been a massive misnomer in the MMORPG industry, & I will share with you some metrics that JS let loose in a close door meeting.

     Paraphrase: * 

    *That Free to Play games are played by EVERYONE, often times on many accounts. Not only that, but a single person might have 5~8 accounts (He stressed "own" the accounts, not "play" them) with several different games, but these people spends very little time in any of them.

    These games are advertised as FREE, so why not register for every F2P game..? More importantly, those registered accounts do not equate to anything what-so-ever. They are just an indication of what artistic style, or stylization, or game mechanic that the masses gravitate towards.

    That there is no real, sustainable revenues in a FREE game, because there is no sustainable customer.*

     And that^ is exactly what has happened, & what has skewed the whole MMORPG metrics.

    Not only that, but people who don't play MMORPG sign up for Free ones because they want to get their feet wet, but these people are learning the ropes (grouping and playing), not at all interested in ITEMS.

    This skew the actual people playing any particular game and the over-all industry metrics. There is actually 70% less F2P MMO players, than actual. Due to massive amounts of duplicate accounts. 

    Which is why F2P games do not track # of users as a metric, it is not important to them as it doesnt translate to profits as it does in a sub game.

    If you were running a f2p game you would not be interested in how many users or accounts there are, you would be looking at daily/weekly/monthly profits.

    Sub games without an item shop only care for # of subs and hope to see those numbers stay the same or go up (almost never happens). There is no other option to generate revenue.

    F2P games give devs endless flexibility options to monetize the game - sub games only give a single option - hoping that they get another month out of a player.

    Game studios are realizing how much more freedom devs have in F2P games to generate revenue via item shop, it is night and day compared to a single chance to get it via sub. 

     

    Please don't lie.

    I am part of the MMO industry, we track everything and use it. I sit behind closed doors all the time and are part of many discussions dealing with exactly this.

    Your post has no bearing and doesn't even follow busines101 sense. Your profits come from accounts, you track accounts. Your profits come from enticing those accounts to spend money in your Free game. (That is where marketing comes in.)

     

    Monetizing a game is not the only concern, the LIFE (duration of activity) of that monetization is critical.

    Most Free to Play games make their profits based on the fact that people spend money on a game, that is designed to have a short life, with very little support after release (As the teams are already moving on to the next cash cow). So providing additional support, or content is pointless for their Marketing strategy, because NOBODY intends on playing a F2P game for years.

     

    F2P mantra: Make your money, then provide lipservice and incentives to those who are whining to buy even more stuff..   all the while using that money to build the next Fruit Stand (TM). 

    I am not sure you understand how F2P works.

     

    First, Marketting is used to bring in new accounts. This can be paid or unpaid, but the basic function of marketting in F2P is to get eyeballs on the prodcuct. Marketting is much cheaper for F2P, as it is easier to get a user to sign up for free, than to pay to sign up.

    Second, F2P companies track accounts for two reasons, server load.. and marketting. Big numbers (no matter how irrelevant) always look better for marketting.  However, no one in the F2P industry makes any money from accounts. They make money from buyers/spenders. You will see this in all the metrics ever published by F2P companies. Just check some of the public information.. and you will always see 'PAYING' users.

    Most publishers expect to make revenue from a F2P title for 2-4 years. If it does not look like it will last that long, they will try not to launch it (which is why you see the games disapear before launch). The longer the game can sustain, the more money that they will make. There are F2P titles are now going on 10 years strong, with many others at the 5-6 year range.

    With the advent of facebook, and competitive browser games there is now a long list of F2P strategy games that are designed to close/end every few months. However, the product is designed to last for years.

     

  • GhavriggGhavrigg Member RarePosts: 1,308
    Originally posted by exile01
    Originally posted by Ghavrigg
    Originally posted by exile01

    Bullshit.

    It all depends how the game is set up from the beginning. If you design your game from the beginning with cash shop in mind, you will get your money.

    Try to imagine how League of Legends would have ended if it was p2p.  Yes it wouldnt have that playerbase it has now.

    Heroes of Newerth tried it with box sales and ended with 40k players after 1 year.

    In fact, go read about articles from chinese f2p games. New games set up as f2p make there millions a week.

     

    Now imagine if SOE would have made EQ:Next p2p. Yes, the playerbase would have been 1/100. Instead its gona keep a healthy population true its 10y lifecycle. And people will spend money- because its new, fresh and they are not bound to play it by p2p system.

     

    steady growth? Bullshit- its about longlivity, the average income per year is higher in f2p games, because they have a unlimited source.

    Way to use games that aren't even MMO's as examples of how P2P doesn't work.  Also way to use EQ:Next  as an example of how "P2P didn't work" when it's not even out yet.

    This was the worst argument you could have possibly posted. Might be best if you refrained from posting in the future if this is the best you've got.

    There will be always people like you with small vision. THe market back then when SOE launched theyr games p2p was another like its today. Thats why Planetside 2 went stright f2p and so will all upcomming mmos from sony- because in longterm- they provide more income. Also the cost (servercost, boradband) will decrease due new technologies. Futthermore most thigns can be scripted, so who need a staff when a script can response to your needs? 

    And LoL adapted f2p because there was a huge hype with f2p games. I remember when almost all 2 months a new f2p game came out. Vanguard as example tried the p2p route instead- and we can see where its going now- shutting down.

     

    Better get people hooked to your game while its new- for that you need to grant all  players access. 

    SoE made their decision and they're sticking with it, for better or for worse.

    Once again, LoL is not an MMO.

    Vanguard didn't fail because it was P2P, though. Vanguard failed because it was released unfinished, and just a total piece of garbage. SoE eventually got it, fixed it up, and made it F2P just so people would come back to play it.

    In the end, I don't care if there is F2P, as long as there is a hybrid model in place. Let people play free all they want, and let me sub to avoid most of the hassle.

    (PS: Don't talk about others having "small vision", when you've got tunnel vision yourself)

     

     

This discussion has been closed.