Relax, Pc's aren't going anywhere anytime soon. However, what finally kills it is something none of you have seen before and is beyond your current imagination.
Originally posted by Boneserino The thing is 10 or 15 years ago, smartphones and tablets were science fiction.
Actually the first smartphone was introduced in 1992, nearly 25 years ago. The tablet is even older. When do you think they first started working towards making the first smartphone and tablet? A decade before that maybe? What's your guess on when the first computer was introduced? 1970? 1960? Try 1940. Always amazes me that people think technology is so much younger then it really is.
It seems this radio show topic is really shit stirring to generate reactions (exposure for their show).
To be fair to him, though, smartphones/tablets are pretty impressive these days, and the best is yet to come.
I think we might see more hybrid systems: powerful smartphones/tablets convertible to "laptops" via external peripherals. But then again, I can't stand typing an email on a tablet/smartphone and so do 90% of people in a professional environment, so it essentially becomes a smarphone/tablet with a larger screen and keyboard + mouse... aka a PC.
That being said, PC won't disappear. It's a fairly narrow view of the needs of the modern world that only focuses on the "dumb masses" and excludes: programmers, web designers, graphists, sound engineers, [INSERT OTHER HERE]...
It's true that computers might become slightly more expensive if components aren't produced "en masse" (e.g. powerful GPUs could become "specialized components").
This subject comes up every year or so. People claiming the PC will die in "x" amount of years. It hasn't yet, and until pads can play the type of games we play on the PC....easily, then I don't think we have much to worry about. The laptop didn't phase out the PC, I don't think pads will either.
First off, I am old enough to disclose that my first PC was the Tandy 1000 I bought at Radio Shack back in the late 80's. I also studied the architecture of the 8088 / 8086 chip. Since then....I have owned and built more PC's then I can remember. On the weekends I listen to a guy on the radio who does a Tech Show. He is very knowledgeable and I respect his opinion the majority of the time.
However, this last weekend he made a bold statement I completely disagree with. He said the PC (as we know it) will go the way of the DoDo bird and not be around in 5 years. He theorizes that everything will be going to "PC Tablets". Sure, the PC market has taken a sizable hit since the IPAD and other tablets have become very popular. However, with the multi-billion dollar video game industry as well as the major players in the GPU / Video cards, there is no way (in my opinion) the PC will die. Thoughts?
-Rig
Like you I've bought my 1st computer in the late 80s (Atari 800XL) and I've heard the theory that the computer as we know it will go the way of the DoDo bird over a 100 times already.
I think this theory is partly true. Yes, computers as we know it will change, much like your Tandy 1000 and my Atari 800XL went the way of the DoDo bird. Like every technological evolution, older models will make place for new ones. And I agree that tablets and smartphones are growing strong lately. But these 'platforms' are too weak to support heavy tasks (games, but don't forget office applications like spreadsheets and more importantly game development itself). The PC will always be around for those heavy tasks.
Sure the PC will change, but the rumor I heard 2nd half 90s that PC building as we know it would disappear and motherboards would have integrated GPUs and CPUs did come true. But to what extend? The GPUs integrated on the motherboards these days are old and low-end models most of the times and those few boards (mainly for barebones) that have a CPU integrated have no real processing power at all.
Lately with quantum computers becoming a big thing in their development, I think this is where we'll be heading eventually, but that still has a long way to go before we have those at home...
Originally posted by junzo316 This subject comes up every year or so. People claiming the PC will die in "x" amount of years. It hasn't yet, and until pads can play the type of games we play on the PC....easily, then I don't think we have much to worry about. The laptop didn't phase out the PC, I don't think pads will either.
Sales of tablets overall dropped 12% last year, soo, yeah.
Until the eye tracking systems couple with actual virtual reality or some interface with the brain comes into fruition the PC will continue to be relevant.
I was rebuilding a new machine every 18 months it seemed but i was stupid.The last one i had for 8 years and never failed me.
I did not go overboard this time,i played it smart,spent wisely got a machine that can run anything for a good price.
I would say 5 years is pretty far off,Microsoft is way too big to all of a sudden crash and burn.When you think about how big the are,who on earth could over take them and knock them right out of the business?
I know the vision was to eliminate them and just have keyboards hooked up to Cloud computers and everyone chooses games not from their HD but from Cloud sources.IMO it is too costly,it would be more costly than owning PC's so not going to happen.
Never forget 3 mile Island and never trust a government official or company spokesman.
I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong on this subject but streaming technology is just getting started with nVidia Grid and AMD FirePro with cloud service on the cusp of the non-desktop revolution. Imagine playing your game of choice without actually needing the hardware to consume. All you need is an internet connection and a device to connect you to the content be it low end PC, Smart TV, Tablet, Ultra Portable Laptop, or Smart Phone. I don't see why, in five years, a $2500 gaming desk top could not be replaced by $45 Raspberry Pi to play games via stream tech.
1) If you have no use for a PC that couldn't easily be replaced by a tablet/phone then clearly it's only a matter of time before they go away... and if others do have uses that can't easily be replaced it's their loss for not aspiring to be more like you... and five years is more than enough time for those people give up their foolish use of PC.
2) It get's them attention, especially from people like my mother who believe everything they read on the internet.
3) Making "bold" predictions is fun because if you're wrong almost no one will remember 5 years from now and if you're right you can point to the article as proof that you're a visionary genius.
You guys are viewing all these devices as somehow different concepts. A tablet is a miniaturized pc with the computing power of years ago with modernized software. An android or iphone is a miniaturized pc, similarly, with extra hardware for cell phone reception. A modern console is a pc with proprietary software. They're all computing devices.
At issue is, "what demands does the average user have in respect to computing power". So, you study that and construct the device appropriately. If you have a pc, you (can) have all the functions of every device, aside from proprietary software. So, when you buy a console, for example, you're not paying for a console, you're paying for the ability to use proprietary software, and the ability to use it with simplicity. If there weren't "hot proprietary games" or "proprietary service", you'd really have no reason at all to have any device other than a pc, unless you're just too simple to figure out how to actually use one.
As demands increase in the need of computing power in daily lives and as technology of miniaturization improves, you pretty much end up with something "like a tablet". It's a little bigger than an android, more compact and less cumbersome than a desktop, and does everything you need it to do. Will there always be people who have greater computing power needs? Sure, and they'll own devices which encase the needed components for those applications. Will there always be simple people who can't operate a pc and be consigned to consoles like mama bird's regurgitation for baby's food? Yes, likely, and they'll always think they have a great thing, while wondering for what else anyone would need a pc.
So you really only need a console if you're a child or if you're simple. Consoles seem to be selling well, so does this mean a growing number of people are simple? Alarmingly, possibly. The other option is that these consoles are representing the limits of necessity of computing power in their lives, games, movies and email. The world is changing and each new career path has an ever-evolving reliance on the understanding of new technology. You need to learn it, embrace it, or get out of the way and be a street sweeper, hamburger constructor or a waitress. But hey, the world will always need those, too, so, whatever.
Hah! My first PC was also a Tandy 1000. Good times.
Insofar as the 'family computer' concept goes, yes, the presence of a 'traditional' PC will be replaced with one or more tablets or other portable devices, as well as a set-top box in the living room. Current style PCs aren't going to die off though; at worst they'll be relegated to what they were in the 70's: A hobby, though I really doubt their presence will diminish to that point.
AN' DERE AIN'T NO SUCH FING AS ENUFF DAKKA, YA GROT! Enuff'z more than ya got an' less than too much an' there ain't no such fing as too much dakka. Say dere is, and me Squiggoff'z eatin' tonight!
We are born of the blood. Made men by the blood. Undone by the blood. Our eyes are yet to open. FEAR THE OLD BLOOD.
My pc is over 3 years old now and can still run every modern game. I can upgrade the video card and prolong it another 3 years easily.
Let's get one thing straight. The computing power of home pc's is far beyond portable devices. My 3+year old pc is FAR beyond the best tablet. It isn't a home pc ... it is my home multi-media machine. Basically, it is a server.
THAT is why pc's are here to stay. They are so powerful and can be integrated into "modern" house holds that they are effectively servers. No tablet will ever be a server.
I think the guy on the radio will go the way of the DoDo bird faster then PC ever will will. Tablets are overrated, they are good for smaller stuff but can not beat the power a PC can punch out(for gaming and NO DOUBT 3D design then everything else for game/movie Dev)
My pc is over 3 years old now and can still run every modern game. I can upgrade the video card and prolong it another 3 years easily.
Let's get one thing straight. The computing power of home pc's is far beyond portable devices. My 3+year old pc is FAR beyond the best tablet. It isn't a home pc ... it is my home multi-media machine. Basically, it is a server.
THAT is why pc's are here to stay. They are so powerful and can be integrated into "modern" house holds that they are effectively servers. No tablet will ever be a server.
Old thread ... same conversation for years.
PCs are what drives the video game market. Console comes out with its top end specs and PC keep progressing the next 3-4 years and then console again take what we PC gamers have paid for and do a cheep upgrade with a new console. Same circle over and over everyone using the same parts.
I could see the PC (as we know it) could go that way. Tech changes, time changes, hell, EVERYTHING CHANGES!!! All those years ago we didn't have a MOUSE. Before that, they didn't have a keyboard. Some people already do not have a monitor. This keyboard and mouse is wireless.
I could see the PC evolving into something totally different. Something that we would not recognize. Like, some person in the future may call a blow dryer a weapon. Will it only take five years? I don't know. But it will happen, someday.
This is a topic that has been around for a long time and is always to same answer. No one can tell what will happen tomorrow much less 5 years from now. I could see the desktop getting smaller and smaller over time as technology get better and we learn how to make the parts smaller with more power. But I very much doubt you will ever see the PC disappear until we get a virtual or holographic system of some kind. No I am not talking about tech like oculus when I say virtual either. As others have said the PC is pretty much the heart of any corporation in todays mass markets. Without them most business would slow to a crawl. Also wireless technology is to vulnerable for most business today. Anything secure is normally keep on landlines. I work in networking and can tell you I could probably hack your tablet in phone in under a couple secs by just sitting close to you without worry of being caught. So security I would say is the biggest reason right now you want see most businesses drop their PC's. You don't want someone sitting in starbucks working on the new nuclear missile designs do you?
With that said personally I would rather see tablets die off, which will never happen. People tend to spend up to as much as 60-70% off their time now looking down when they are walking, traveling, or pretty much doing anything now a days because they are connected to social media 24-7. My wife is a prime example of this if I ask her what was posted yesterday she can tell me in a second. But if I ask her what the person looked like that just walked by she can't tell me anything. I know this part was off topic but I needed to rant because I see it every day now.
Comments
Wait, Mainframes are dead? News to me. <==Mainframe Programmer.
Relax, Pc's aren't going anywhere anytime soon. However, what finally kills it is something none of you have seen before and is beyond your current imagination.
-Love, the future.
Actually the first smartphone was introduced in 1992, nearly 25 years ago. The tablet is even older. When do you think they first started working towards making the first smartphone and tablet? A decade before that maybe? What's your guess on when the first computer was introduced? 1970? 1960? Try 1940. Always amazes me that people think technology is so much younger then it really is.
To be fair to him, though, smartphones/tablets are pretty impressive these days, and the best is yet to come.
I think we might see more hybrid systems: powerful smartphones/tablets convertible to "laptops" via external peripherals. But then again, I can't stand typing an email on a tablet/smartphone and so do 90% of people in a professional environment, so it essentially becomes a smarphone/tablet with a larger screen and keyboard + mouse... aka a PC.
That being said, PC won't disappear. It's a fairly narrow view of the needs of the modern world that only focuses on the "dumb masses" and excludes: programmers, web designers, graphists, sound engineers, [INSERT OTHER HERE]...
It's true that computers might become slightly more expensive if components aren't produced "en masse" (e.g. powerful GPUs could become "specialized components").
Like you I've bought my 1st computer in the late 80s (Atari 800XL) and I've heard the theory that the computer as we know it will go the way of the DoDo bird over a 100 times already.
I think this theory is partly true. Yes, computers as we know it will change, much like your Tandy 1000 and my Atari 800XL went the way of the DoDo bird. Like every technological evolution, older models will make place for new ones. And I agree that tablets and smartphones are growing strong lately. But these 'platforms' are too weak to support heavy tasks (games, but don't forget office applications like spreadsheets and more importantly game development itself). The PC will always be around for those heavy tasks.
Sure the PC will change, but the rumor I heard 2nd half 90s that PC building as we know it would disappear and motherboards would have integrated GPUs and CPUs did come true. But to what extend? The GPUs integrated on the motherboards these days are old and low-end models most of the times and those few boards (mainly for barebones) that have a CPU integrated have no real processing power at all.
Lately with quantum computers becoming a big thing in their development, I think this is where we'll be heading eventually, but that still has a long way to go before we have those at home...
that's pure bullshit, a real gamer would NEVER play on a tablet. why should we?
it doesnt have a mouse, keyboard or monitor, it's all in one.
you fell for some dude being payed to make that statement. or just someone who has NO idea about gaming.
"I'll never grow up, never grow up, never grow up! Not me!"
Sales of tablets overall dropped 12% last year, soo, yeah.
5 years? No way that is happening.
Until the eye tracking systems couple with actual virtual reality or some interface with the brain comes into fruition the PC will continue to be relevant.
Necro is LIFE!
My first was a TRS80 lmao :P
I was rebuilding a new machine every 18 months it seemed but i was stupid.The last one i had for 8 years and never failed me.
I did not go overboard this time,i played it smart,spent wisely got a machine that can run anything for a good price.
I would say 5 years is pretty far off,Microsoft is way too big to all of a sudden crash and burn.When you think about how big the are,who on earth could over take them and knock them right out of the business?
I know the vision was to eliminate them and just have keyboards hooked up to Cloud computers and everyone chooses games not from their HD but from Cloud sources.IMO it is too costly,it would be more costly than owning PC's so not going to happen.
Never forget 3 mile Island and never trust a government official or company spokesman.
People enjoy predicting the future because:
1) If you have no use for a PC that couldn't easily be replaced by a tablet/phone then clearly it's only a matter of time before they go away... and if others do have uses that can't easily be replaced it's their loss for not aspiring to be more like you... and five years is more than enough time for those people give up their foolish use of PC.
2) It get's them attention, especially from people like my mother who believe everything they read on the internet.
3) Making "bold" predictions is fun because if you're wrong almost no one will remember 5 years from now and if you're right you can point to the article as proof that you're a visionary genius.
You guys are viewing all these devices as somehow different concepts. A tablet is a miniaturized pc with the computing power of years ago with modernized software. An android or iphone is a miniaturized pc, similarly, with extra hardware for cell phone reception. A modern console is a pc with proprietary software. They're all computing devices.
At issue is, "what demands does the average user have in respect to computing power". So, you study that and construct the device appropriately. If you have a pc, you (can) have all the functions of every device, aside from proprietary software. So, when you buy a console, for example, you're not paying for a console, you're paying for the ability to use proprietary software, and the ability to use it with simplicity. If there weren't "hot proprietary games" or "proprietary service", you'd really have no reason at all to have any device other than a pc, unless you're just too simple to figure out how to actually use one.
As demands increase in the need of computing power in daily lives and as technology of miniaturization improves, you pretty much end up with something "like a tablet". It's a little bigger than an android, more compact and less cumbersome than a desktop, and does everything you need it to do. Will there always be people who have greater computing power needs? Sure, and they'll own devices which encase the needed components for those applications. Will there always be simple people who can't operate a pc and be consigned to consoles like mama bird's regurgitation for baby's food? Yes, likely, and they'll always think they have a great thing, while wondering for what else anyone would need a pc.
So you really only need a console if you're a child or if you're simple. Consoles seem to be selling well, so does this mean a growing number of people are simple? Alarmingly, possibly. The other option is that these consoles are representing the limits of necessity of computing power in their lives, games, movies and email. The world is changing and each new career path has an ever-evolving reliance on the understanding of new technology. You need to learn it, embrace it, or get out of the way and be a street sweeper, hamburger constructor or a waitress. But hey, the world will always need those, too, so, whatever.
Hah! My first PC was also a Tandy 1000. Good times.
Insofar as the 'family computer' concept goes, yes, the presence of a 'traditional' PC will be replaced with one or more tablets or other portable devices, as well as a set-top box in the living room. Current style PCs aren't going to die off though; at worst they'll be relegated to what they were in the 70's: A hobby, though I really doubt their presence will diminish to that point.
AN' DERE AIN'T NO SUCH FING AS ENUFF DAKKA, YA GROT! Enuff'z more than ya got an' less than too much an' there ain't no such fing as too much dakka. Say dere is, and me Squiggoff'z eatin' tonight!
We are born of the blood. Made men by the blood. Undone by the blood. Our eyes are yet to open. FEAR THE OLD BLOOD.
#IStandWithVic
Only 4 years to go then before we see if the "prediction" was accurate or not.
My pc is over 3 years old now and can still run every modern game. I can upgrade the video card and prolong it another 3 years easily.
Let's get one thing straight. The computing power of home pc's is far beyond portable devices. My 3+year old pc is FAR beyond the best tablet. It isn't a home pc ... it is my home multi-media machine. Basically, it is a server.
THAT is why pc's are here to stay. They are so powerful and can be integrated into "modern" house holds that they are effectively servers. No tablet will ever be a server.
Old thread ... same conversation for years.
You stay sassy!
What? Put millions of IT guys out of business overnight... blasphemous!
Why do you think Windows is still around... job security!
PCs are what drives the video game market. Console comes out with its top end specs and PC keep progressing the next 3-4 years and then console again take what we PC gamers have paid for and do a cheep upgrade with a new console. Same circle over and over everyone using the same parts.
I could see the PC (as we know it) could go that way. Tech changes, time changes, hell, EVERYTHING CHANGES!!! All those years ago we didn't have a MOUSE. Before that, they didn't have a keyboard. Some people already do not have a monitor. This keyboard and mouse is wireless.
I could see the PC evolving into something totally different. Something that we would not recognize. Like, some person in the future may call a blow dryer a weapon. Will it only take five years? I don't know. But it will happen, someday.
The official unofficial death-of- the-pc countdown thread. Can we keep this thing alive for 4 more years?
@Kano, the radio guy said 5 years, we are just fact checking here.
This is a topic that has been around for a long time and is always to same answer. No one can tell what will happen tomorrow much less 5 years from now. I could see the desktop getting smaller and smaller over time as technology get better and we learn how to make the parts smaller with more power. But I very much doubt you will ever see the PC disappear until we get a virtual or holographic system of some kind. No I am not talking about tech like oculus when I say virtual either. As others have said the PC is pretty much the heart of any corporation in todays mass markets. Without them most business would slow to a crawl. Also wireless technology is to vulnerable for most business today. Anything secure is normally keep on landlines. I work in networking and can tell you I could probably hack your tablet in phone in under a couple secs by just sitting close to you without worry of being caught. So security I would say is the biggest reason right now you want see most businesses drop their PC's. You don't want someone sitting in starbucks working on the new nuclear missile designs do you?
With that said personally I would rather see tablets die off, which will never happen. People tend to spend up to as much as 60-70% off their time now looking down when they are walking, traveling, or pretty much doing anything now a days because they are connected to social media 24-7. My wife is a prime example of this if I ask her what was posted yesterday she can tell me in a second. But if I ask her what the person looked like that just walked by she can't tell me anything. I know this part was off topic but I needed to rant because I see it every day now.
Agree of course completely. On the other side, pc tablets are however on sure way do die out, replaced by new bigger cell phones.