5 million registered beta users! 10 million users by end of year.

Celcius

5 million registered and probably over 4.5 million disappointed or did not even touch the game. Honestly I have seen FAR FAR more negative opinions of this game then I have seen positive. I would be shocked if they even sell that many copies across all the platforms. I can't predict how many people will buy the game, but I will tell you right now that enough people won't sub to the game to keep it from going F2P in 2015. 

Knotwood

Originally posted by Bigdaddyx

Originally posted by Knotwood

Originally posted by Bigdaddyx

Originally posted by Markn
Did we forget the console version will be released this year to ?  That a lone will open its market up to players wow, rift, eve, eq, etc have never been open to.  Way more people play consoles now days.

Yeah we already know that but to get 10 million subs by end of the year ESO will have to sell around 40 to 50 million boxes. Good luck with that.

wow, it went from 30 to 40 to now50!    30 million would be a retention rate of 33% which is unreasonably low for this game given its player base.   40 million would be a 25% retention rates, and 50 million would be 20% retention rate, you really expect anyone to buy that?

Do you have any idea how incredibly ironic that statement is? 

I must admit, now that most people think retention rates are that low, maybe the companies really should release the real numbers of players instead of registered users.

This game is capable of keeping 60% retention rates with MMO players with its 4-6 week updates and content in expansions given its sub.  They even defend their sub fees with that statement. I have no doubt they'll hold true to that and keep that retention number at 60%

As far as ES and Skyrim fans on consoles and PC, you can bet they'll have a 80% retention rate.   Consoles because there will only be two games for the Consoles at that time FFXIV and ESO.  For PC fans, who would question the loyalty of those guys, they made mods to high heaven for morrorwind, and Skyrim. but still they are only 2.8 million skyrim fans on PC.

Knotwood

Originally posted by Celcius
5 million registered and probably over 4.5 million disappointed or did not even touch the game. Honestly I have seen FAR FAR more negative opinions of this game then I have seen positive. I would be shocked if they even sell that many copies across all the platforms. I can't predict how many people will buy the game, but I will tell you right now that enough people won't sub to the game to keep it from going F2P in 2015. 

I dint see 4.5 million disappointed people here on the forums, in fact I think 20 of the negative people from months ago and many nay sayers are actually happy at all the fixes and feedback that ESO has gotten and actually fixed for them to make them happy.  Most of the negative is about cash shops which F2P would use to make its cash....   why would you think they would go F2P when the most vocal people want subs?   They flipped out over a horse in a cash shop, that should tell every F2p fan something right there.

Senan

Originally posted by Gallus85

 

The fact that you can only point to 3 or 4 games that have launched over the past 15 years that have succeeded as P2P actually proves my point.  Especially since of those 4, 3 of them were launched when P2P was a semi-viable model and 1 isn't doing that great with the P2P model.

 

It seems strange to me that people can come to this website, look at the list of literally hundreds of MMOs that have launched, yet think that P2P is viable just because 2 or 3 games succeeded with it.  Games that launched a decade ago none the less.  This display of cognitive dissonance is simply amazing.

 

Then when ESO bombs in the P2P model, people will just cry "It was lacking quality"?  An Elder Scrolls game, "lacking quality"?  That's rich.

 

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

It makes no difference when they released. They're still around, and they're still sub-based. They're also considerably more successful than a lot of the F2P garbage that's out now, with continuous active development and higher player counts than many of the them combined. Yes, the model isn't prevalent like it used to be, but to call it "failed" is just stupid. That would imply that it doesn't work for anyone, when clearly it does -- quite well, I might add.

 

Zalmon

Originally posted by Seilan

Originally posted by Gallus85

 

The fact that you can only point to 3 or 4 games that have launched over the past 15 years that have succeeded as P2P actually proves my point.  Especially since of those 4, 3 of them were launched when P2P was a semi-viable model and 1 isn't doing that great with the P2P model.

 

It seems strange to me that people can come to this website, look at the list of literally hundreds of MMOs that have launched, yet think that P2P is viable just because 2 or 3 games succeeded with it.  Games that launched a decade ago none the less.  This display of cognitive dissonance is simply amazing.

 

Then when ESO bombs in the P2P model, people will just cry "It was lacking quality"?  An Elder Scrolls game, "lacking quality"?  That's rich.

 

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

It makes no difference when they released. They're still around, and they're still sub-based. They're also considerably more successful than a lot of the F2P garbage that's out now, with continuous active development and higher player counts than many of the them combined. Yes, the model isn't prevalent like it used to be, but to call it "failed" is just stupid. That would imply that it doesn't work for anyone, when clearly it does -- quite well, I might add.

 

No actually it makes all the difference. If P2P was really that viable we would see a lot more success stories like WOW. I know it is hard for you to accept it but future is for hybrid payment models where F2P and P2P are combined together. Days for pure P2P MMOS are gone.

And by the way very funny topic. OP seems to have a great sense of humor. 

Wolfshead

10 Million is a lot of wish full think OP that would mean that all other MMO player should more less leave the MMO the are playing today. I personal would happy if get 1 - 2 Million the 1 year WoW have the top in WOTLK the have 12 Million that was in October 2010 that is 7 year after release of Classic WoW after that is been go down for WoW.

10 Million is big dream I personal have play beta and i got play the game when it go live and i hope ESO become a challenge for WoW and Blizzard for the have been top dog way to long and there get down for there cloud and start pay more attention to there customer but OP you also forget that WildStar will go live in 3 june this year.

rojoArcueid

Originally posted by Knotwood

Originally posted by MsPtibiscuit
I'm happy if they get to 2 million of sales (1 million is already a big number)

Just off the beta tester numbers alone, 5 million on day one is no exaggeration.  Not everyone who is buying the game signed up to test it.  In fact beta tester numbers are always the small number of a game, never more then the buyer numbers of a game.

and not everyone who tested the game is going to buy it. Zenimax have no idea how many people will buy the game (people can cancel preorders and get refunds after launch too), we have even less idea. Beta sign ups mean nothing. Box purchase and active subs do.

Wolfshead

Originally posted by rojo6934

and not everyone who tested the game is going to buy it. Zenimax have no idea how many people will buy the game (people can cancel preorders and get refunds after launch too), we have even less idea. Beta sign ups mean nothing. Box purchase and active subs do.

That is very true but what people really don't think off the 1 to 3 1st months of new game the will always have high active subs you cant say anything about how big the player base is until after 1st 6 month when hype is over.

The are many people that just play game for 1st 30 days which is free then stop and the are other that basically only play 2 to 3 months and stop go back to old game or play other new game. I think we will have a lot of player until 3rd June when WildStar is go live then after that we can basically see how many active subs we have ESO.

cylon8

this game might retain half a million users unless the content they plan on rolling out truly expands the game world and intodouces in world housing and other sandboxish elements to detract from the glaring themmeparkness of the game

TheCrow2k

Originally posted by Knotwood

http://www.elderscrollsonline.com/en/news/post/2014/03/14/eso-road-ahead

 

-SNIP-

if even a fraction of them buy the game, were seeing going to see at least 5 million starting.

-SNIP-

 

 

"Even a fraction" of 5 million is not 5 million unlessthe only fraction you know of is a whole. But you said "if even a fraction" which suggests you are expecting less than a whole which would suggest less than 5 million starting.

 

Aside from that as already has been stated not that many people actually participated in the beta and every beta tester will not buy the game. Infact at this late stage I would expect based on historical evidence that at least 3 quarters of the people signed up for beta are now just hoping for a free trial to see if they want to buy TESO.

Senan

Originally posted by Zalmon

Originally posted by Seilan

Originally posted by Gallus85

 

The fact that you can only point to 3 or 4 games that have launched over the past 15 years that have succeeded as P2P actually proves my point.  Especially since of those 4, 3 of them were launched when P2P was a semi-viable model and 1 isn't doing that great with the P2P model.

 

It seems strange to me that people can come to this website, look at the list of literally hundreds of MMOs that have launched, yet think that P2P is viable just because 2 or 3 games succeeded with it.  Games that launched a decade ago none the less.  This display of cognitive dissonance is simply amazing.

 

Then when ESO bombs in the P2P model, people will just cry "It was lacking quality"?  An Elder Scrolls game, "lacking quality"?  That's rich.

 

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

It makes no difference when they released. They're still around, and they're still sub-based. They're also considerably more successful than a lot of the F2P garbage that's out now, with continuous active development and higher player counts than many of the them combined. Yes, the model isn't prevalent like it used to be, but to call it "failed" is just stupid. That would imply that it doesn't work for anyone, when clearly it does -- quite well, I might add.

 

No actually it makes all the difference. If P2P was really that viable we would see a lot more success stories like WOW. I know it is hard for you to accept it but future is for hybrid payment models where F2P and P2P are combined together. Days for pure P2P MMOS are gone.

And by the way very funny topic. OP seems to have a great sense of humor. 

I'd argue that  WoW still does it better than most of the clones that have came after it, hence its continued success while the others falter in its shadow. Aside from a few, I can't really think of many mmos that are worth a shit since back when WoW released -- at least not many that I feel are even worth a sub. The few that I felt were worth it, either had such a niche appeal and/or poor management, that they couldn't survive on a sub alone (FE, for example.) EVE, however, is proof that even games with a niche appeal can be successful on the sub model if managed correctly.

I think it's pretty obvious that if you can keep the retention rates in the green, that a sub model is the way to go, and I'd imagine that's why Zenimax decided to go with it -- as well as most other AAA games in the past, initially. Guess we'll just have to see how well it works for them in the longterm.

And for the record, I don't even mind a hybrid model if it's done properly. That's not what I'm arguing. I'm just saying that calling P2P a "failed" model is bullshit, when a few of the MOST popular and profitable mmorpgs on the market use it.

Patchez

Originally posted by Knotwood

Originally posted by Bigdaddyx

Originally posted by Knotwood

Originally posted by Bigdaddyx

Originally posted by Markn
Did we forget the console version will be released this year to ?  That a lone will open its market up to players wow, rift, eve, eq, etc have never been open to.  Way more people play consoles now days.

Yeah we already know that but to get 10 million subs by end of the year ESO will have to sell around 40 to 50 million boxes. Good luck with that.

wow, it went from 30 to 40 to now50!    30 million would be a retention rate of 33% which is unreasonably low for this game given its player base.   40 million would be a 25% retention rates, and 50 million would be 20% retention rate, you really expect anyone to buy that?

Do you have any idea how incredibly ironic that statement is? 

I must admit, now that most people think retention rates are that low, maybe the companies really should release the real numbers of players instead of registered users.

This game is capable of keeping 60% retention rates with MMO players with its 4-6 week updates and content in expansions given its sub.  They even defend their sub fees with that statement. I have no doubt they'll hold true to that and keep that retention number at 60%

As far as ES and Skyrim fans on consoles and PC, you can bet they'll have a 80% retention rate.   Consoles because there will only be two games for the Consoles at that time FFXIV and ESO.  For PC fans, who would question the loyalty of those guys, they made mods to high heaven for morrorwind, and Skyrim. but still they are only 2.8 million skyrim fans on PC.

60% retention rate OP, really?

 

Come on, this has gone from epic comedy to just trying too hard. Although your troll level dinged veteran rank during the course of this thread, so gratz on that achievement

sipu

Those who work don't argue about game being P2P, because amout of money you pay for entertainment is so small you don't even notice it.

ESO has nothing to attract after level hit cap. One big BG with clunky character combat is way too low to hold 1 mln player base.

 

10 mln? You, mister OP, are silly.

WalterWhite

I don't think they will reach those numbers even if the game was F2P.

bingbongbros

And one month after launch they will have 500k users. rofl

JHenry

I doubt the 10 million amount. I would not raise the bar that high. If ZOS have their estimate fixed at that, we might see an immediate F2P if they did not reach that expectation.

Let us compare it with other games. SWTOR had 2-3 mil of pre-orders but had a sudden decrease in number of subscriber and is now an F2P game. WoW had a 500k-1m pre-orders but had a steady increase in number of subscriber, and is still an P2P game. If ESO had a 10 million pre-order, and the number of subscribers dropped suddenly to a 1 million subscriber after a month, it might also create an F2P expectation.

plescure

maybe 2 million to purchase the game. At the end of the first month, about a million will sub, at the end of 2nd month Wldstar comes out. Players will migrate leaving maybe 400-550k core players for ESO

 

this is my prediction

baphamet

---

Originally posted by plescure
maybe 2 million to purchase the game. At the end of the first month, about a million will sub, at the end of 2nd month Wldstar comes out. Players will migrate leaving maybe 400-550k core players for ESO this is my prediction

---

your prediction will be wrong. most ESO players will not migrate to wildstar.

wildstar is attracting a completely different kind of player and wont have close to the commercial success ESO will have.

most people that quit ESO in a month or two will quit because that's what they do.

the same thing will happen to wildstar.

Elikal

Mene mene tekel uparashin...

CazNeerg

Originally posted by baphamet

your prediction will be wrong. most ESO players will not migrate to wildstar.

wildstar is attracting a completely different kind of player and wont have close to the commercial success ESO will have.

most people that quit ESO in a month or two will quit because that's what they do.

the same thing will happen to wildstar.

Yeah, there might be some people who find both ESO and Wildstar appealing, but the crossover amount is not going to be huge, the games are just way too different.  And even if someone who leaves ESO plays Wildstar, that doesn't mean he left ESO because of Wildstar.

Digna

I can't believe this thread is continuing.....

tawess

This thread sure have been entertaining.

 

I guess we will see in march next year how things are coming along.

Knotwood

Almost everyone I see posted here, completely forgot about Elder Scrolls Single Player base that will be playing this game.   Their 20 million single player base is the market of target here with the PVE.   It has already won over the PVE fans in MMO's.  The last group of players they are going after are PVP players in MMO's,  which are the hardest ones to please in any game.

 

I think almost everyone here has thought ONLY in numbers of MMO market.  Almost everyone here  has complelty ignored the console players, and their ES base fan single players.   The MMO market has 2-3 million for ESO to soak up.   The single players who are ES fans or bought skyrim amount to 2.8 million on the PC, and the Console ES fans or bought Skyrim total 17.2 million.   We also have to look at the fact of those skyrim fans we have 4.8 million who bought Oblivion as well.  

 

When you take into account ALL sources of customers for this game you have to have ALL factors of the equation:

 

ENTIRE MARKET OF ESO:

2-3 million MMO playerse looking for a new game. 

2.8 million PC ES fans who bought Skyrim.

17.2 million console ES fans who bought Skyrim.

The fact that 4.8 million Oblivion copies sold.

The fact that 4 million Marrowind copies sold.

X million of console MMO players (unknown since no MMORPG has came to them since Xbox and PS2)

X millions migrating to ESO from other gaems.

 

PLUS:

RETENTION RATE

How well the retention rate you think this company can sustain with its updates and content expansions.  Also considering its retention rate with its Single Player base as their first MMO ever.   MMO player retention +  ES fan player base retention.

 

PLUS:

ADVERTISMENT

Amount of global advertisement.  Will they run an advertisement campaign the size of WoW's with celebs, ect. world wide.

 

EQUALS:

10 million subs by the end of the year

 

 

TruthXHurts

So it will be F2P within a year?

Knotwood

Originally posted by TruthXHurts
So it will be F2P within a year?

As I said before,the player base of this game wants a sub.   Did you not see how vocal the sub players of this game were when they put a horse into a cash shop.  A cash shop is the main survival of a F2P model...   Why do you think they would go F2P after seeing their player base flip out over that horse...  let alone the Imperial Race when it was in the CE.   Both really huge signs that this game might never go F2P in the future.