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retention predictions

[Deleted User][Deleted User] CommonPosts: 0
in Elder Scrolls Online
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  • BigdaddyxBigdaddyx Member UncommonPosts: 2,039
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.
  • DistopiaDistopia Member EpicPosts: 21,183
    Half of what they had by the three month mark, and a slow taper after. Until new content is released, then they'll have a surge. WHich will follow a similar course until they change business strategies or go belly up. Could be next year could be in 10 years, I dunno.

    For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson


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  • Soki123Soki123 Member RarePosts: 2,558
    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    im a say about 12million boxes sold for PC.  so 12% if 12m ..calculator.. 1.4mil retained

    12 mil on pc, lol, that's funny.

  • alexhpy98721alexhpy98721 Member UncommonPosts: 264
    Originally posted by Soki123
    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    im a say about 12million boxes sold for PC.  so 12% if 12m ..calculator.. 1.4mil retained

    12 mil on pc, lol, that's funny.

    If they had a good number you would have seen an announcement....

    So far they say more Imperial Editions were sold compared to normal ones, if that is true my guess is not that many people bought the game besides the TES fans who got the Imperial Edition.

    But we`ll wait and see.... either way it will be a fun game for a month, i will only decide to buy more time if they can actually add content fast like the promised otherwise i`ll just get 1 more month in like 6 months and so on...  so its up to them.

     

    EDIT: I doubt they went over 2-2.5 mil at best... if they got more its really good news.

  • KarteliKarteli Member CommonPosts: 2,646
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    VGChartz shows 157k preorders for TESO in the USA.  Comparatively, from Dec 10, 2011, with an equal time remaining before release, SWTOR had 620k preorders in the USA.

     

    http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders/41721/USA/

     

    Unscientifically double that for worldwide preorder totals, since EU numbers seem to resemble USA, in past trending.  Add the number back in again for day-1 retail sales.

     

    So ... ~500k game units will sell.  That seems low, actually.  If it works out that way, I expect to never hear official sales results.

     

    Which by OP's numbers would mean 60k player retention.  hmm.....

     

    ps:   PS4 and XBox-One each have roughly 50k preorders each, in the USA, with ~2.5 months to go.  The really interesting part is going to see whether console folk accept P2P games.

     

     

    Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
    Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.

  • orionblackorionblack Member UncommonPosts: 493
    I think retention would rather depend on the speed of content , no?
  • BigdaddyxBigdaddyx Member UncommonPosts: 2,039
    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    im a say about 12million boxes sold for PC.  so 12% if 12m ..calculator.. 1.4mil retained

    I was looking for a serious response.

  • WarlyxWarlyx Member EpicPosts: 3,368
    Originally posted by Karteli

    ps:   PS4 and XBox-One each have roughly 50k preorders each, in the USA, with ~2.5 months to go.  The really interesting part is going to see whether console folk accept P2P games.

    FFXIV

  • karmathkarmath Member UncommonPosts: 904

    Retention is going to be pretty much the same for any themepark released in the last decade, they all followed a pretty similar path regardless of how quick they pumped out content and fluff. First month will drop 20%ish then from there a steep decline of 30-40% for the first few months, then a slower decline of  5-10% and then level out at around the 6-7 month mark.

     

  • BigdaddyxBigdaddyx Member UncommonPosts: 2,039
    Originally posted by Skuall
    Originally posted by Karteli

    ps:   PS4 and XBox-One each have roughly 50k preorders each, in the USA, with ~2.5 months to go.  The really interesting part is going to see whether console folk accept P2P games.

    FFXIV

    Yeah but in case of FFXIV majority of console subs come from Japan. That is how it was with FFXI. Sadly ESO isn't released in Asia.

  • ace5572ace5572 Member Posts: 113

    I see this going the Age of Conan route. It'll get released and people will rave about some aspects but after a month and the novelty wears off it becomes just another dying game, slapping band-aids on itself to squeeze every penny it can out of gamers.

    Lets take a real serious look at ESO...borrowed mechanics from other MMOs (daoc 3 realm setup for pvp) and no innovative mechanics. That approach sure seems to have worked in the past 7 years for the other bland money-grabber MMOs out there, im sure it'll do well for ESO. <fart noise>

  • alexhpy98721alexhpy98721 Member UncommonPosts: 264
    Originally posted by Karteli
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    VGChartz shows 157k preorders for TESO in the USA.  Comparatively, from Dec 10, 2011, with an equal time remaining before release, SWTOR had 620k preorders in the USA.

     

    http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders/41721/USA/

     

    Unscientifically double that for worldwide preorder totals, since EU numbers seem to resemble USA, in past trending.  Add the number back in again for day-1 retail sales.

     

    So ... ~500k game units will sell.  That seems low, actually.  If it works out that way, I expect to never hear official sales results.

     

    Which by OP's numbers would mean 60k player retention.  hmm.....

     

    ps:   PS4 and XBox-One each have roughly 50k preorders each, in the USA, with ~2.5 months to go.  The really interesting part is going to see whether console folk accept P2P games.

     

     

    Wow you are right if they are even remotely accurate it makes sense why we keep seeing all the messages like "preorder before its too late" and bla bla... those messages worried me but i was unsure if its just a bad marketing team or desperation.

    Well, i bought it anyway even if it goes F2P as long as the game is good and i can get everything via the sub fee without trying to make me buy shit in the cash shop i`ll stay.

     

    EDIT: AOC dropped because they had NO content at endgame + it was not playable at launch....

    ESO seems to be stable, even if its because of not many people buying it.

  • Charlie.CheswickCharlie.Cheswick Member UncommonPosts: 469
    150% 
    -Chuckles
  • BigdaddyxBigdaddyx Member UncommonPosts: 2,039
    Originally posted by alexhpy98721
    Originally posted by Karteli
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    VGChartz shows 157k preorders for TESO in the USA.  Comparatively, from Dec 10, 2011, with an equal time remaining before release, SWTOR had 620k preorders in the USA.

     

    http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders/41721/USA/

     

    Unscientifically double that for worldwide preorder totals, since EU numbers seem to resemble USA, in past trending.  Add the number back in again for day-1 retail sales.

     

    So ... ~500k game units will sell.  That seems low, actually.  If it works out that way, I expect to never hear official sales results.

     

    Which by OP's numbers would mean 60k player retention.  hmm.....

     

    ps:   PS4 and XBox-One each have roughly 50k preorders each, in the USA, with ~2.5 months to go.  The really interesting part is going to see whether console folk accept P2P games.

     

     

    Wow you are right if they are even remotely accurate it makes sense why we keep seeing all the messages like "preorder before its too late" and bla bla... those messages worried me but i was unsure if its just a bad marketing team or desperation.

    Well, i bought it anyway even if it goes F2P as long as the game is good and i can get everything via the sub fee without trying to make me buy shit in the cash shop i`ll stay.

    If you got it flaunt it. 

    Every MM0 company is quick to flaunt their sale numbers within days of release. If 12 million copies were sold Zenimax would be advertising it in bold letters everywhere.

  • PrecusorPrecusor Member UncommonPosts: 3,589
    PC and consoles should have a decent amount subs.
  • killion81killion81 Member UncommonPosts: 995
    Originally posted by Karteli
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    VGChartz shows 157k preorders for TESO in the USA.  Comparatively, from Dec 10, 2011, with an equal time remaining before release, SWTOR had 620k preorders in the USA.

     

    http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders/41721/USA/

     

    Unscientifically double that for worldwide preorder totals, since EU numbers seem to resemble USA, in past trending.  Add the number back in again for day-1 retail sales.

     

    So ... ~500k game units will sell.  That seems low, actually.  If it works out that way, I expect to never hear official sales results.

     

    Which by OP's numbers would mean 60k player retention.  hmm.....

     

    ps:   PS4 and XBox-One each have roughly 50k preorders each, in the USA, with ~2.5 months to go.  The really interesting part is going to see whether console folk accept P2P games.

     

     

     

    Wow... that's terrible.  I expected much larger initial box sells.  I'm passing on this one and I guess a lot of other people are as well.

  • BigdaddyxBigdaddyx Member UncommonPosts: 2,039
    Originally posted by killion81
    Originally posted by Karteli
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    VGChartz shows 157k preorders for TESO in the USA.  Comparatively, from Dec 10, 2011, with an equal time remaining before release, SWTOR had 620k preorders in the USA.

     

    http://www.vgchartz.com/preorders/41721/USA/

     

    Unscientifically double that for worldwide preorder totals, since EU numbers seem to resemble USA, in past trending.  Add the number back in again for day-1 retail sales.

     

    So ... ~500k game units will sell.  That seems low, actually.  If it works out that way, I expect to never hear official sales results.

     

    Which by OP's numbers would mean 60k player retention.  hmm.....

     

    ps:   PS4 and XBox-One each have roughly 50k preorders each, in the USA, with ~2.5 months to go.  The really interesting part is going to see whether console folk accept P2P games.

     

     

     

    Wow... that's terrible.  I expected much larger initial box sells.  I'm passing on this one and I guess a lot of other people are as well.

    I was sure of one thing that it will sell very well being Elder Scroll but i guess i was completely wrong. It hasn't even touched 1 million mark.

  • KuatosuneKuatosune Member UncommonPosts: 219
    I think we're all a little bit once (or in some cases many) times bitten, twice shy.  I know I really want this game to be good but I've been let down by so many before that I'm not going to even try this game unless it goes ftp.

    image

  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] CommonPosts: 0
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  • ckeeton999ckeeton999 Member CommonPosts: 53
    Game hasn't even launched
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] CommonPosts: 0
    The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • ckeeton999ckeeton999 Member CommonPosts: 53
    Kinda pre mature to predict salss
  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer Member EpicPosts: 8,857
    Originally posted by Soki123
    Originally posted by Dren_Utogi
    Originally posted by Bigdaddyx
    Yeah but how many copies have been sold so far? we don't know total sales number yet.

    im a say about 12million boxes sold for PC.  so 12% if 12m ..calculator.. 1.4mil retained

    12 mil on pc, lol, that's funny.

    He forgot the decimal between the 1 and the 2

  • MMOExposedMMOExposed Member RarePosts: 7,400

    2 million sold on PC. (pre order and all included)

    10% retention rate.

    200,000 subs after 5 months.

    50% drop off afterwards.

    100,000

    FPS conversion

    Philosophy of MMO Game Design

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