Originally posted by Soki123 It won t matter for this or Wildstar when WoD comes out. Have fun while it lasts.
Shots fired.
To be fair, I agree with you... and it breaks my heart. Due to the innovation stagnation of AAA video game creators, a 10-year-old game is still the king of the genre.
Imagine if this was another genre. We'd be forsaking Battlefield and Call of Duty because none of them measure up to Unreal Tournament or Quake 3!
What the ****, mainstream?
The main reason people stay with WoW is that they are established and there is nothing significantly better to outweigh that. I cancelled my sub a few days ago after 10 years, more than 10 level 90's and over 1M gold. I procrastinated over it for ages but just got to a stage where I had to try something new even if it doesn't turn out well. Its like our jobs, no one is going to leave an established job for a new job with the same work, same pay, starting off at the bottom of the ladder on a promise. The next big crowd puller MMO has to do something really innovative not just subtle variations on the same.
WoW doesn't have 8M subs it has about 1M25 and the rest is random logins from Asia for the month where they have no subscription model and pay some miniscule amount per hr. If this game gets > 500K subs that'd be a great effort considering it really isn't anything ground breaking - I am enjoying it though.
Quake / Unreal Tournament my heart pines for those days when aim was king.
Since we're very unlikely to get any hard sub numbers from Zenimax or Bethesda, about the only thing I can think to use as a yardstick of popularity are the gameplay stats from XFire.com. And yes, I fully realize that this would need to be taken with a grain (or ocean) of salt.
Currently TESO ranks 19th on its gameplay list (http://www.xfire.com/games/eso) with a little over 1000 hours of play by its users yesterday. WoW ranks 5th, with a bit over 6000 hrs of gameplay. This of course does not infer anything about the number of subs, but does relate to some measure of its "popularity". FYI, I'll add as another data point that SW:TOR is ranking 15th, with about 1500 hrs of gameplay.
I bought it after beta testing knowing I would have at least a little fun, but I am having an absolute blast. I am playing it like an ES game as much as can and experiencing every aspect it has to offer and have yet to be let down.
The thing is ESO won't be able to give accurate numbers for the subs, with the fiasco that happend recently with people getting charge there subs at registration before there 30 days free time was up, Zeni will keep those numbers in there database and there is a good chance they will use it to give a false impression of how many subs they have.
It is a money thing here, Every false sub charge created a number for the amount of subs they have. And don't say they won't count them we have no proof that they will not, but we have prrof they did charge the subs even if for a moment, it was done and created a number.
So basically there subs total is not accurate until proven otherwise.
Since we're very unlikely to get any hard sub numbers from Zenimax or Bethesda, about the only thing I can think to use as a yardstick of popularity are the gameplay stats from XFire.com. And yes, I fully realize that this would need to be taken with a grain (or ocean) of salt.
Currently TESO ranks 19th on its gameplay list (http://www.xfire.com/games/eso) with a little over 1000 hours of play by its users yesterday. WoW ranks 5th, with a bit over 6000 hrs of gameplay. This of course does not infer anything about the number of subs, but does relate to some measure of its "popularity". FYI, I'll add as another data point that SW:TOR is ranking 15th, with about 1500 hrs of gameplay.
When SWTOR & GW2 released they were in 4-5 position for a long time. So, either ESO players use xfire less than other gamers or ESO sold less than most have predicted. Any other reason about this?
Since we're very unlikely to get any hard sub numbers from Zenimax or Bethesda, about the only thing I can think to use as a yardstick of popularity are the gameplay stats from XFire.com. And yes, I fully realize that this would need to be taken with a grain (or ocean) of salt.
Currently TESO ranks 19th on its gameplay list (http://www.xfire.com/games/eso) with a little over 1000 hours of play by its users yesterday. WoW ranks 5th, with a bit over 6000 hrs of gameplay. This of course does not infer anything about the number of subs, but does relate to some measure of its "popularity". FYI, I'll add as another data point that SW:TOR is ranking 15th, with about 1500 hrs of gameplay.
When SWTOR & GW2 released they were in 4-5 position for a long time. So, either ESO players use xfire less than other gamers or ESO sold less than most have predicted. Any other reason about this?
WoW had a bit of a dropoff at the end of March (http://www.xfire.com/games/wow) to account for the rise to 19th spot for ESO. Given the nature of WoW players though, it could spell disaster for ESO when the WoD xpac comes out.
Between various resources, each separately insignificant, when you put them all together, the PC version isn't doing so good.
Honestly though, seeing as how this is a console style game, I'm not surprised if many people are just waiting for the console versions. Maybe ZOS is planning to flip the F2P switch right before console launch? Wouldn't shock me either, since console games work really good with the B2P model + DLC. Or keep the PC as a sub, and try to entice PC users to buy a 2nd copy for a console, just to get a populated B2P game there.
The existence of the cash shop is fairly good evidence that some kind of B2P / F2P infrastructure is already available.
Since we're very unlikely to get any hard sub numbers from Zenimax or Bethesda, about the only thing I can think to use as a yardstick of popularity are the gameplay stats from XFire.com. And yes, I fully realize that this would need to be taken with a grain (or ocean) of salt.
Currently TESO ranks 19th on its gameplay list (http://www.xfire.com/games/eso) with a little over 1000 hours of play by its users yesterday. WoW ranks 5th, with a bit over 6000 hrs of gameplay. This of course does not infer anything about the number of subs, but does relate to some measure of its "popularity". FYI, I'll add as another data point that SW:TOR is ranking 15th, with about 1500 hrs of gameplay.
When SWTOR & GW2 released they were in 4-5 position for a long time. So, either ESO players use xfire less than other gamers or ESO sold less than most have predicted. Any other reason about this?
WoW had a bit of a dropoff at the end of March (http://www.xfire.com/games/wow) to account for the rise to 19th spot for ESO. Given the nature of WoW players though, it could spell disaster for ESO when the WoD xpac comes out.
Between various resources, each separately insignificant, when you put them all together, the PC version isn't doing so good.
Honestly though, seeing as how this is a console style game, I'm not surprised if many people are just waiting for the console versions. Maybe ZOS is planning to flip the F2P switch right before console launch? Wouldn't shock me either, since console games work really good with the B2P model + DLC. Or keep the PC as a sub, and try to entice PC users to buy a 2nd copy for a console, just to get a populated B2P game there.
The existence of the cash shop is fairly good evidence that some kind of B2P / F2P infrastructure is already available.
Agree with most of your points, but if the PC sales are not that good already, then don't count much on consoles.
Console players are not used on p2p games, plus ESO will launch only in next-gen consoles, making the potential buyer number even smaller. Adding that too many console players owns a PC too, can figure that they are not going to buy it for a second time.
Another is about WoW. Numbers show a tiny drop from the launch of ESO, much smaller than most have predicted or imagined and its still the free month. Besides numbers, i dont know even 1 active WoW player that dropped WoW for ESO (i m not saying say none from WoW moved to ESO, but i don't know anyone).
ESO will indeed have huge problems with the release of WoD & Wildastar, when it comes to the WoW style oriented subscribers.
Just like most..well, due to the interfaces we use I should really say, all MMO's have repetitive button clicking/mashing combat...they also have quests that can be boiled down to "go here" ," do this" , "kill X", "bring me Y" in varying degrees. Not really sure just how much more innovative the process can be made on either of these fronts outside of introducing new interface technology. Oculus Rift style with a more perfected Kinect type of sensor perhaps. Of course...if I wanted to do all that shit to play a game I'd take up racket ball.
That's why to me...the most enjoyable Quests are always the best written or most cleverly conceived. One reason I actually read ESO quests is they are very interesting and capture my attention and imagination. Not quite beating out The Secret World overall but better than SWTOR imo . All three games have completely different themes and moods. I play all of them but enjoy ESO a bit more and will likely put more hours into Tamriel in the future. This is good because having played Wildstar..it's not quite as appealing to me as I had once hoped. (Don't get me wrong..I think there is plenty people will like..it just doesn't enrapture me in any enduring way.)
What are your thoughts? Do you think the game really has 1, 2, 5, even 10 million subscription?
It would be very surprising if they didn't go past 2m. 4-5m maybe during the first one to three months, tapering off after that.
Overall we were extremely successful and we eventually lead the fight to Daggerfall's HQ and made an attempt to claim an Elder Scroll. The pacing in the game is great. The map is truly large enough to support small and large groups. I'm also looking forward to any other additions Zenimax will have for PvP.
Nice. Sounds like the early days of GW2's WvW. I hope EOS AvA will have the staying power to stay this interesting. We'll see in six months to a year or so, when the hard-core guilds have refined their play and optimized/streamlined AvA.
You have to given them 30 days notice before you can cancel it is in their TOS so most everyone that activated will become subscribers.
Section 5. Article 2 " If You have subscribed for an automatic subscription renewal, You agree that Bethesda may continue charging You on an automatic recurring basis for Your current subscription preferences unless You cancel Your subscription at least thirty (30) days prior to the expiration of the subscription."
I think there are way more than the haters are trying to say there are and way less than the fanbois are trying to say there are. There are a LOT of instances of the same zone, and they all have about the same amount of people in them so you can't judge how many people are playing based on how many you see around you. I've been farming motifs using the log in / log out trick and almost every time I'm in a different phase with a whole new set of people.
My guess is they sold 1-1.5 million units and their overall retention will be around 500-750k. It will never be a massively popular game, it is too niche and different. A themepark yes, but not enough of a wow clone to appeal to the wow clone masses which is the biggest mmo market - they will mostly be going to Wildstar.
You have to given them 30 days notice before you can cancel it is in their TOS so most everyone that activated will become subscribers.
Section 5. Article 2 " If You have subscribed for an automatic subscription renewal, You agree that Bethesda may continue charging You on an automatic recurring basis for Your current subscription preferences unless You cancel Your subscription at least thirty (30) days prior to the expiration of the subscription."
Yeah I saw the complaint posts on the official forums. Horrid.
I would REALLY hope that was just a 2nd rate lawyer who drafted the EULA. Otherwise there is going to be a non-stop shitstorm for months which is going to pollute any hopeful console sales. (Why do business with a bad rep company?)
Funny thing is, people would have never noticed the EULA atrocity if the billing error never happened. Because who reads EULA's anyways? I skim them, but don't read word for word. Maybe I should now, thanks to Zenimax's billing error
Zenimax got a whee too greedy by charging folks the full $14.99 initially... lol .. should have just lied low and charged 1 cent... according to the EULA you would have gotten the next month anyways free and clear.
The questing is okay there's voice acting throughout the game however questing is pretty generic, the main difference is the amount of running required from one location to the next; at times there's almost too much running between objectives. If you didn't buy the Collector's Edition it'll be even more tedious as you won't have a horse. Players who didn't pay extra will find extremely high gold costs for horses.
I don't see how the questing is "generic".
Generic quests are "go here and kill x of y", "go there and collect y of z".
In ESO's quests I've helped save azura's alcolyte from cold harbor, I saved the phantom of a boy from his spectral father who was trying to reanimate him in an Ayleid ruin where they were shut away from their mother. In a later quest, (I believe it's the one above with azura) the person you saved was the child's mother.
I investigated a poisoned well in an orc stronghold and helped the perpetrator start a new stronghold.
In one Ayleid ruin I rescued scholars who were drawn into "the aether" and while in process discovered the love letters and eventual disturbing end of the writer of those letters.
Now, they don't require as much thought as, say, the secret world, but I wouldn't call that generic mmo questing.
And you did all that by "going there and killing x of y" or "going here and collecting y of z"
Try harder.
Yeah thats right, but if you disregard that the lore is alot more complex you can say that about all computer roleplaying games, all other games aswell, generic is if the quests are all the same and if the quest lack total imagination ..
The quests in Skyrim are ALL like this, go there and collect A and B or meet this guy and grab this item, if you ignore the lore completly the quests will never get any more complex ...Its the story around a task or a quest that makes them exiting, sometimes you wich they were more gameplay complex but that will not happen anytime soon
-Kill 10 bears for me at my field!!
this task or quest can have lore written about it to make it exiting or it can be told just like I wrote.
Onto the next one
-Kill 11 Badgers in my Backyard,
These 2 tasks are supergeneric and what we are used to in many MMO's.
This is something I have yet seen in TESO at all, sure if you put a blind Eye at Everything being told and click trough dialogues every time, the quests will be like the above ones with 10 or so varaints (it's probably more) and sure the complexety of singleplayer games are somewhat higher but with the limitations of an MMO TESO does a great job in it's storytelling quests.
The thing I love about ESO Questing is the game gives you a final objective. It doesn't tell you how to achieve that objective. That is up to the player. On my sneaky Khajiit, I just stealth my way through to the objective (although early on you have to be very careful with sneaking). On my big Orc brawler, I just run in and bash everything in the head with my Maul to the objective. On my High Elf Priest, I get a group of friends, and heal them and debuff our enemies. There aren't many "kill 10 rat" quests. It's more like "Go get this at the end of the tunnel" and there just happens to be 10 rats in your way
The game is very story driven, and if you just hit 1 til you get the quest, I don't think you'll have much fun with it.
I think there are way more than the haters are trying to say there are and way less than the fanbois are trying to say there are. There are a LOT of instances of the same zone, and they all have about the same amount of people in them so you can't judge how many people are playing based on how many you see around you. I've been farming motifs using the log in / log out trick and almost every time I'm in a different phase with a whole new set of people.
My guess is they sold 1-1.5 million units and their overall retention will be around 500-750k. It will never be a massively popular game, it is too niche and different. A themepark yes, but not enough of a wow clone to appeal to the wow clone masses which is the biggest mmo market - they will mostly be going to Wildstar.
One thing I note so far is a lack of any glowing PR from Bethesda/Zenimax. One thing you want to do with any MMO, and maybe more particularly with a sub-based game these days, is to try to dispel any "OMG, it'll go F2P" rumors from the get-go, at least if your marketing dept knows what it's doing So, if you hit a million sales, you crow about it, just like BW/EA did with SW:TOR 3 days after its release. Frankly, I'd be surprised if it didn't get that much sales just based on the brand name. So either they haven't, in which case I'd see it as a flop, or they have, and they really don't understand marketing...
Also, if, as some people have said, they expect a lot of console sales, why in the hell do a split release, and if it's as some people have said *primarily* console, why PC first? This in itself suggests that they expected to sell many more PC than console copies.
Since we're very unlikely to get any hard sub numbers from Zenimax or Bethesda, about the only thing I can think to use as a yardstick of popularity are the gameplay stats from XFire.com. And yes, I fully realize that this would need to be taken with a grain (or ocean) of salt.
Currently TESO ranks 19th on its gameplay list (http://www.xfire.com/games/eso) with a little over 1000 hours of play by its users yesterday. WoW ranks 5th, with a bit over 6000 hrs of gameplay. This of course does not infer anything about the number of subs, but does relate to some measure of its "popularity". FYI, I'll add as another data point that SW:TOR is ranking 15th, with about 1500 hrs of gameplay.
When SWTOR & GW2 released they were in 4-5 position for a long time. So, either ESO players use xfire less than other gamers or ESO sold less than most have predicted. Any other reason about this?
WoW had a bit of a dropoff at the end of March (http://www.xfire.com/games/wow) to account for the rise to 19th spot for ESO. Given the nature of WoW players though, it could spell disaster for ESO when the WoD xpac comes out.
Between various resources, each separately insignificant, when you put them all together, the PC version isn't doing so good.
Honestly though, seeing as how this is a console style game, I'm not surprised if many people are just waiting for the console versions. Maybe ZOS is planning to flip the F2P switch right before console launch? Wouldn't shock me either, since console games work really good with the B2P model + DLC. Or keep the PC as a sub, and try to entice PC users to buy a 2nd copy for a console, just to get a populated B2P game there.
The existence of the cash shop is fairly good evidence that some kind of B2P / F2P infrastructure is already available.
Agree with most of your points, but if the PC sales are not that good already, then don't count much on consoles.
Console players are not used on p2p games, plus ESO will launch only in next-gen consoles, making the potential buyer number even smaller. Adding that too many console players owns a PC too, can figure that they are not going to buy it for a second time.
Another is about WoW. Numbers show a tiny drop from the launch of ESO, much smaller than most have predicted or imagined and its still the free month. Besides numbers, i dont know even 1 active WoW player that dropped WoW for ESO (i m not saying say none from WoW moved to ESO, but i don't know anyone).
ESO will indeed have huge problems with the release of WoD & Wildastar, when it comes to the WoW style oriented subscribers.
Comments
The main reason people stay with WoW is that they are established and there is nothing significantly better to outweigh that. I cancelled my sub a few days ago after 10 years, more than 10 level 90's and over 1M gold. I procrastinated over it for ages but just got to a stage where I had to try something new even if it doesn't turn out well. Its like our jobs, no one is going to leave an established job for a new job with the same work, same pay, starting off at the bottom of the ladder on a promise. The next big crowd puller MMO has to do something really innovative not just subtle variations on the same.
WoW doesn't have 8M subs it has about 1M25 and the rest is random logins from Asia for the month where they have no subscription model and pay some miniscule amount per hr. If this game gets > 500K subs that'd be a great effort considering it really isn't anything ground breaking - I am enjoying it though.
Quake / Unreal Tournament my heart pines for those days when aim was king.
Since we're very unlikely to get any hard sub numbers from Zenimax or Bethesda, about the only thing I can think to use as a yardstick of popularity are the gameplay stats from XFire.com. And yes, I fully realize that this would need to be taken with a grain (or ocean) of salt.
Currently TESO ranks 19th on its gameplay list (http://www.xfire.com/games/eso) with a little over 1000 hours of play by its users yesterday. WoW ranks 5th, with a bit over 6000 hrs of gameplay. This of course does not infer anything about the number of subs, but does relate to some measure of its "popularity". FYI, I'll add as another data point that SW:TOR is ranking 15th, with about 1500 hrs of gameplay.
The thing is ESO won't be able to give accurate numbers for the subs, with the fiasco that happend recently with people getting charge there subs at registration before there 30 days free time was up, Zeni will keep those numbers in there database and there is a good chance they will use it to give a false impression of how many subs they have.
It is a money thing here, Every false sub charge created a number for the amount of subs they have. And don't say they won't count them we have no proof that they will not, but we have prrof they did charge the subs even if for a moment, it was done and created a number.
So basically there subs total is not accurate until proven otherwise.
When SWTOR & GW2 released they were in 4-5 position for a long time. So, either ESO players use xfire less than other gamers or ESO sold less than most have predicted. Any other reason about this?
WoW had a bit of a dropoff at the end of March (http://www.xfire.com/games/wow) to account for the rise to 19th spot for ESO. Given the nature of WoW players though, it could spell disaster for ESO when the WoD xpac comes out.
Between various resources, each separately insignificant, when you put them all together, the PC version isn't doing so good.
Honestly though, seeing as how this is a console style game, I'm not surprised if many people are just waiting for the console versions. Maybe ZOS is planning to flip the F2P switch right before console launch? Wouldn't shock me either, since console games work really good with the B2P model + DLC. Or keep the PC as a sub, and try to entice PC users to buy a 2nd copy for a console, just to get a populated B2P game there.
The existence of the cash shop is fairly good evidence that some kind of B2P / F2P infrastructure is already available.
Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.
Agree with most of your points, but if the PC sales are not that good already, then don't count much on consoles.
Console players are not used on p2p games, plus ESO will launch only in next-gen consoles, making the potential buyer number even smaller. Adding that too many console players owns a PC too, can figure that they are not going to buy it for a second time.
Another is about WoW. Numbers show a tiny drop from the launch of ESO, much smaller than most have predicted or imagined and its still the free month. Besides numbers, i dont know even 1 active WoW player that dropped WoW for ESO (i m not saying say none from WoW moved to ESO, but i don't know anyone).
ESO will indeed have huge problems with the release of WoD & Wildastar, when it comes to the WoW style oriented subscribers.
Just like most..well, due to the interfaces we use I should really say, all MMO's have repetitive button clicking/mashing combat...they also have quests that can be boiled down to "go here" ," do this" , "kill X", "bring me Y" in varying degrees. Not really sure just how much more innovative the process can be made on either of these fronts outside of introducing new interface technology. Oculus Rift style with a more perfected Kinect type of sensor perhaps. Of course...if I wanted to do all that shit to play a game I'd take up racket ball.
That's why to me...the most enjoyable Quests are always the best written or most cleverly conceived. One reason I actually read ESO quests is they are very interesting and capture my attention and imagination. Not quite beating out The Secret World overall but better than SWTOR imo . All three games have completely different themes and moods. I play all of them but enjoy ESO a bit more and will likely put more hours into Tamriel in the future. This is good because having played Wildstar..it's not quite as appealing to me as I had once hoped. (Don't get me wrong..I think there is plenty people will like..it just doesn't enrapture me in any enduring way.)
It would be very surprising if they didn't go past 2m. 4-5m maybe during the first one to three months, tapering off after that.
Nice. Sounds like the early days of GW2's WvW. I hope EOS AvA will have the staying power to stay this interesting. We'll see in six months to a year or so, when the hard-core guilds have refined their play and optimized/streamlined AvA.
You have to given them 30 days notice before you can cancel it is in their TOS so most everyone that activated will become subscribers.
Section 5. Article 2
" If You have subscribed for an automatic subscription renewal, You agree that Bethesda may continue charging You on an automatic recurring basis for Your current subscription preferences unless You cancel Your subscription at least thirty (30) days prior to the expiration of the subscription."
I think there are way more than the haters are trying to say there are and way less than the fanbois are trying to say there are. There are a LOT of instances of the same zone, and they all have about the same amount of people in them so you can't judge how many people are playing based on how many you see around you. I've been farming motifs using the log in / log out trick and almost every time I'm in a different phase with a whole new set of people.
My guess is they sold 1-1.5 million units and their overall retention will be around 500-750k. It will never be a massively popular game, it is too niche and different. A themepark yes, but not enough of a wow clone to appeal to the wow clone masses which is the biggest mmo market - they will mostly be going to Wildstar.
Yeah I saw the complaint posts on the official forums. Horrid.
I would REALLY hope that was just a 2nd rate lawyer who drafted the EULA. Otherwise there is going to be a non-stop shitstorm for months which is going to pollute any hopeful console sales. (Why do business with a bad rep company?)
Funny thing is, people would have never noticed the EULA atrocity if the billing error never happened. Because who reads EULA's anyways? I skim them, but don't read word for word. Maybe I should now, thanks to Zenimax's billing error
Zenimax got a whee too greedy by charging folks the full $14.99 initially... lol .. should have just lied low and charged 1 cent... according to the EULA you would have gotten the next month anyways free and clear.
Want a nice understanding of life? Try Spirit Science: "The Human History"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8NNHmV3QPw&feature=plcp
Recognize the voice? Yep sounds like Penny Arcade's Extra Credits.
Yeah thats right, but if you disregard that the lore is alot more complex you can say that about all computer roleplaying games, all other games aswell, generic is if the quests are all the same and if the quest lack total imagination ..
The quests in Skyrim are ALL like this, go there and collect A and B or meet this guy and grab this item, if you ignore the lore completly the quests will never get any more complex ...Its the story around a task or a quest that makes them exiting, sometimes you wich they were more gameplay complex but that will not happen anytime soon
-Kill 10 bears for me at my field!!
this task or quest can have lore written about it to make it exiting or it can be told just like I wrote.
Onto the next one
-Kill 11 Badgers in my Backyard,
These 2 tasks are supergeneric and what we are used to in many MMO's.
This is something I have yet seen in TESO at all, sure if you put a blind Eye at Everything being told and click trough dialogues every time, the quests will be like the above ones with 10 or so varaints (it's probably more) and sure the complexety of singleplayer games are somewhat higher but with the limitations of an MMO TESO does a great job in it's storytelling quests.
The thing I love about ESO Questing is the game gives you a final objective. It doesn't tell you how to achieve that objective. That is up to the player. On my sneaky Khajiit, I just stealth my way through to the objective (although early on you have to be very careful with sneaking). On my big Orc brawler, I just run in and bash everything in the head with my Maul to the objective. On my High Elf Priest, I get a group of friends, and heal them and debuff our enemies. There aren't many "kill 10 rat" quests. It's more like "Go get this at the end of the tunnel" and there just happens to be 10 rats in your way
The game is very story driven, and if you just hit 1 til you get the quest, I don't think you'll have much fun with it.
One thing I note so far is a lack of any glowing PR from Bethesda/Zenimax. One thing you want to do with any MMO, and maybe more particularly with a sub-based game these days, is to try to dispel any "OMG, it'll go F2P" rumors from the get-go, at least if your marketing dept knows what it's doing
So, if you hit a million sales, you crow about it, just like BW/EA did with SW:TOR 3 days after its release. Frankly, I'd be surprised if it didn't get that much sales just based on the brand name. So either they haven't, in which case I'd see it as a flop, or they have, and they really don't understand marketing...
Also, if, as some people have said, they expect a lot of console sales, why in the hell do a split release, and if it's as some people have said *primarily* console, why PC first? This in itself suggests that they expected to sell many more PC than console copies.
So... You've made a thread to disprove the idea that there are several million subs by offering nothing as evidence to dispute those claims.
Congrats, you just wasted your time, and everyone elses.
I tend to agree with you.
If you ain't seeing anyone it's because you've blown past them in level.