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BOLD Predictions!

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Comments

  • DatawarlockDatawarlock Member Posts: 338
    Originally posted by Channce
    Originally posted by RebelScum99
    Originally posted by prowess
    HeroEngine doesn't come with the ability to do housing...  so that one's wrong.

    Yeah, except it does.  You can tell that it does by the fact that SWTOR is introducing player housing in their next expansion.  

    ^^ That

    Technically, SWTOR isn't really using HeroEngine. They got their hands on the unfinished beta version of it and had to custom code most of it from the ground up, so really, that bastard halfbreed is lucky to even run let alone have a housing option running.

    But yeah, RePop is using full HeroEngine and will have various forms of housing out of the box, so what more proof do you need that HeroEngine can do housing?

  • AroukosAroukos Member Posts: 571
    Originally posted by DMKano
    Originally posted by Aroukos

    My estimations:

    1.5-2m subs right now

    1-1.5m after free month

    600-800k after 6 months

    WoD release. We will see what happens then.

    I don't care about consoles but anyway don't count much on them. Console ppl are not used to p2p. It also requires last gen consoles making customer pool even smaller. Last but not least, many console owners owns a pc too, they wont buy the game 2 times.

    So imo, if they can hold up to 500k subs then it will stay as p2p. If not...then we will see :)

    Average retention rate for a sub game is ~30% - your retention is far too high in your 2nd line, that would set records.

     

     

     

    I know its indeed a bit "overpriced" but i wanted to avoid discussions about this specific retention rate :)

  • MsPtibiscuitMsPtibiscuit Member Posts: 164
    If ESO had more than 1 million subscribers, you can be sure Zenimax would be yelling about that in every magazine/interview.
  • KuinnKuinn Member UncommonPosts: 2,072
    Edit; woops nvm, already on page 2.
  • Swids2010Swids2010 Member Posts: 244
    The developers have stated a few times that ESO can not operate as a free to play game. So they will probably hold out as long as possible with sub just to not be proven wrong but how many subs do they require. For example Yoshi (I sometimes spell or get it wrong) the lead on FF14 ARR stated he would be happy with the game running at 40'000 subs so I wonder what ESO figures for a happy future are.

    image
  • kaiser3282kaiser3282 Member UncommonPosts: 2,759
    Originally posted by Viper482
    Originally posted by DMKano

    If they have any more nights like tonight - sorry, bad prediction.

    No matter how kick ass your game is - the most important factor is - server stability - lack of this will kill even the best of games.

     

    True story. Warhammer Online lost tons of subs the first month due to instability and bugs, it never recovered despite becoming a great game for the next year or so before committing suicide via mega-rat-patch. 

    Warhammer also had a bunch of missing content that was promised in beta (4 capital cities missing which never got added, 4 classes missing which were added in like 2 months after launch, etc) and took several weeks to several months to get just about anything fixed. That was IF they ever even bothered to fix it. It also had some of the worst class balance issues of any game for the first several months, basically BW bomb squads or gtfo. As far as stability, well they had almost nightly complete server crashes due to fortress battles causing the servers to come crashing down, which resulted in them just removing fortresses altogether (which was a big draw of the game for PvPers), not even bothering t fix them, and then putting them back in nearly 2 years later when the pop was so low that the crashes didnt happen anymore.

    Other major bugs:

    - Mail taking 5+ minutes just to load your mailbox (2+ weeks to fix)

    - broken pets (never fixed)

    - broken stealth (never fixed)

    - about 50% of the PvE content  beyond the starter area bugged (some fixed, some not)

    - scenario queues not working at all (recurring issue for the first couple months)

    - when the queues actually did work you had a lot of people getting placed into empty scenarios (still happened until the day the servers shut down)

    I'll take ESO's buggy quests here and there and the 1st real stability issue in 2 weeks over all of that.

  • psiicpsiic Member RarePosts: 1,642

    Not sure might be a violation better safe than sorry..

  • DistopiaDistopia Member EpicPosts: 21,183
    Originally posted by prowess
    HeroEngine doesn't come with the ability to do housing...  so that one's wrong.

    The Repopulaton would like a word.. IF a studio with as little funding as that can get it in why couldn't a studio like zenimax? Unless of course they don't want to.

    For every minute you are angry , you lose 60 seconds of happiness."-Emerson


  • BlasphimBlasphim Member UncommonPosts: 354
    Originally posted by psiic

    Not sure might be a violation better safe than sorry..

    I saw yer post before edit, and if Zeni is saying to use third party sites for AH I doubt a lil wager here and there is big on the no-no list.

  • dreamscaperdreamscaper Member UncommonPosts: 1,592

    My prediction:

     

    1. ESO is the TORtanic 2.0.

    <3

  • LobotomistLobotomist Member EpicPosts: 5,981
    Originally posted by mlacen

    free to play in 6 months 

    My BOLD prediction : sooner



  • NecropsieNecropsie Member UncommonPosts: 142
    Originally posted by Lobotomist
    Originally posted by mlacen

    free to play in 6 months 

    My BOLD prediction : sooner

    My BOLDER prediction: at the end of first free month, we will see developers talking about "how f2p is the future of mmo's and maybe one day they will do it too".

    One day means less then 6 months, yes.

    Stages of a new mmo: 1) It's just beta. It still has plenty of time before release. 2) It just launched. Give it time. WoW wasn't built in a day. 3) We don't need you anyway. 4) F2P announced. 5)Huge influx of players. 6) Look how much has changed. 7) Cash shop is the only thing developed lately. 8) It has been a long journey and we thank everyone who was part of it. Shutting down in 3 months. (Courtesy of Robokapp.)

  • RageGoriaRageGoria Member UncommonPosts: 61

    many predicted that this game will fail, but i don't think that will happen in the near future

     

  • dxsaoshidxsaoshi Member Posts: 18
    Originally posted by RageGoria

    many predicted that this game will fail, but i don't think that will happen in the near future

     

    Agreed this game will hit a million subs easy. This mmo has some of the best questing in any MMO to date which is the most important factor in an MMO. Remember SWOTOR thats turning a huge profit atm and thats the last best questing MMO besides TESO of course.

     

    GG TESO RIP WILDSTAR AND ARCHEAGE.

  • Instigator-JonesInstigator-Jones Member UncommonPosts: 530
    Originally posted by dxsaoshi

     

    GG TESO RIP WILDSTAR AND ARCHEAGE.

    That's not a prediction. ^ that there is dreaming. 

  • pupurunpupurun Member UncommonPosts: 561
    Free to Play until spring of 2015
  • XasapisXasapis Member RarePosts: 6,337

    ESO reminds me a lot of TSW, only with a bigger IP.

     

    If you strip that IP off the game, what is left to play? That's the real question that will determine the actual longevity.

  • DihoruDihoru Member Posts: 2,731
    Originally posted by dxsaoshi
    Originally posted by RageGoria

    many predicted that this game will fail, but i don't think that will happen in the near future

     

    Agreed this game will hit a million subs easy. This mmo has some of the best questing in any MMO to date which is the most important factor in an MMO. Remember SWOTOR thats turning a huge profit atm and thats the last best questing MMO besides TESO of course.

     

    GG TESO RIP WILDSTAR AND ARCHEAGE.

    Remember SWTOR was sinking like a rock before they made a good chunk of the experience F2P (initial class quests and access to everything else based on timers and whatnot).

    image
  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 11,004
    Originally posted by Distopia
    Originally posted by prowess
    HeroEngine doesn't come with the ability to do housing...  so that one's wrong.

    The Repopulaton would like a word.. IF a studio with as little funding as that can get it in why couldn't a studio like zenimax? Unless of course they don't want to.

    Until the Repopulation actually does those things, its just speculation and wishful thinking, and does not in any way support your argument to the contrary.image

  • DihoruDihoru Member Posts: 2,731
    Originally posted by Phry
    Originally posted by Distopia
    Originally posted by prowess
    HeroEngine doesn't come with the ability to do housing...  so that one's wrong.

    The Repopulaton would like a word.. IF a studio with as little funding as that can get it in why couldn't a studio like zenimax? Unless of course they don't want to.

    Until the Repopulation actually does those things, its just speculation and wishful thinking, and does not in any way support your argument to the contrary.image

    http://hewiki.heroengine.com/wiki/Player_Housing_Tutorial that is called google and 2 minutes with it.

    image
  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 11,004
    Originally posted by Dihoru
    Originally posted by Phry
    Originally posted by Distopia
    Originally posted by prowess
    HeroEngine doesn't come with the ability to do housing...  so that one's wrong.

    The Repopulaton would like a word.. IF a studio with as little funding as that can get it in why couldn't a studio like zenimax? Unless of course they don't want to.

    Until the Repopulation actually does those things, its just speculation and wishful thinking, and does not in any way support your argument to the contrary.image

    http://hewiki.heroengine.com/wiki/Player_Housing_Tutorial that is called google and 2 minutes with it.

    Until there's even a working alpha it is just wishful thinking, and no amount of 'bigging up' the hero engine is going to change that, until we see an actual working version. and there isn't one.image

  • dxsaoshidxsaoshi Member Posts: 18
    Originally posted by Phry
    Originally posted by Dihoru
    Originally posted by Phry
    Originally posted by Distopia
    Originally posted by prowess
    HeroEngine doesn't come with the ability to do housing...  so that one's wrong.

    The Repopulaton would like a word.. IF a studio with as little funding as that can get it in why couldn't a studio like zenimax? Unless of course they don't want to.

    Until the Repopulation actually does those things, its just speculation and wishful thinking, and does not in any way support your argument to the contrary.image

    http://hewiki.heroengine.com/wiki/Player_Housing_Tutorial that is called google and 2 minutes with it.

    Until there's even a working alpha it is just wishful thinking, and no amount of 'bigging up' the hero engine is going to change that, until we see an actual working version. and there isn't one.image

    Such a negative nancy. The Devs promised housing. Devs like these never lie they will surely deliver and Repopulation will be the best western MMO for a long time come. Just let it happen. Repopulation will be the next coming and I for one can't wait.

  • KuinnKuinn Member UncommonPosts: 2,072
    Originally posted by Phry
    Originally posted by Dihoru
    Originally posted by Phry
    Originally posted by Distopia
    Originally posted by prowess
    HeroEngine doesn't come with the ability to do housing...  so that one's wrong.

    The Repopulaton would like a word.. IF a studio with as little funding as that can get it in why couldn't a studio like zenimax? Unless of course they don't want to.

    Until the Repopulation actually does those things, its just speculation and wishful thinking, and does not in any way support your argument to the contrary.image

    http://hewiki.heroengine.com/wiki/Player_Housing_Tutorial that is called google and 2 minutes with it.

    Until there's even a working alpha it is just wishful thinking, and no amount of 'bigging up' the hero engine is going to change that, until we see an actual working version. and there isn't one.image

     Just saying "nah the engine cant handle it" has exactly as much weight as saying "yah the engine can totally handle that" your 'no' isnt any better than my 'yes' so unless someone brings in some evidence it's just jibberish, and that wiki link I must say is a lot more evidence than just spitting out assumptions.

  • BlasphimBlasphim Member UncommonPosts: 354
    Originally posted by dxsaoshi
    Originally posted by Phry
    Originally posted by Dihoru
    Originally posted by Phry
    Originally posted by Distopia
    Originally posted by prowess
    HeroEngine doesn't come with the ability to do housing...  so that one's wrong.

    The Repopulaton would like a word.. IF a studio with as little funding as that can get it in why couldn't a studio like zenimax? Unless of course they don't want to.

    Until the Repopulation actually does those things, its just speculation and wishful thinking, and does not in any way support your argument to the contrary.image

    http://hewiki.heroengine.com/wiki/Player_Housing_Tutorial that is called google and 2 minutes with it.

    Until there's even a working alpha it is just wishful thinking, and no amount of 'bigging up' the hero engine is going to change that, until we see an actual working version. and there isn't one.image

    Such a negative nancy. The Devs promised housing. Devs like these never lie they will surely deliver and Repopulation will be the best western MMO for a long time come. Just let it happen. Repopulation will be the next coming and I for one can't wait.

    I thought that SOE's "New Home For SWG Players" was the next coming.....this is MMORPG forums right?

  • Oph8Oph8 Member Posts: 177
    Originally posted by thubub

    Since the servers are down I will start off with some BOLD predictions about the game's future.  In a former life I was Nostradamus, so use caution when you try convince everyone that I am wrong. 

    1.  This game will go free to play....... NEVER!!!!

    That's right, I said it.  It is NEEEEVER going free to play.  It currently has a ginormous subscriber base (1-2 million at least) and the game wont lose enough of that subscriber base to warrant the free to play move.  Also, going free to play will devalue the brand long term.  So all you fence sitters waiting for that fateful day when the game no longer costs a monthly fee can move along.  It will never happen. 

    2.   ZeniMax/Bethesda will get their act together and deliver on providing a smooth, glich-free, stable server with relatively few bugs left by the end of April BEFORE they try to add more content and completely bork the server!!!

    I am SUPREEEMELY confident that this will happen.  Well, maybe not supremely.  I am sublimely confident this will happen.  Perhaps I am just subliminally confident about this.  Ok, maybe it is just hope, but I am predicting it!

    3.  Player and guild housing will be added by the end of the year!

    Why wouldn't they do it, right?

    I will limit myself to only those three predictions at the moment.  Channeling my inner Nostradamus is a bit taxing. 

     

    lol wow. Where did you get those sub numbers from???

    "Everything is mine and your woman too"

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