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NCSoft 3rd Quarter Earnings

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  • Rayzer235Rayzer235 Member UncommonPosts: 63
    Originally posted by PioneerStew
    Originally posted by Rayzer235
    Originally posted by PioneerStew
    Originally posted by Rayzer235
    On GW2 Expansion this was said in the call: 
    • From conference call: " The game is now two years old. And therefore in the not too far future we do think that we will have an opportunity to show our plans about expansion packs for this game" .

    Also NCsoft is holding some sort of press conference about their future plans.

    Translates as 'living story is not achieving adequate profit' (as any casual observer could have told them two years ago), 'so we are being forced to create a long overdue expansion'

    I really would not read too much into they have saying expansion is around the corner since like Q4 2012.

    I am not, the game bored me to tears regardless.  They would really need to recapture some of the fun of GW1 before I returned.  

    Well then I guess I'll never see in game :) I'm still having fun

  • AlumicardAlumicard Member UncommonPosts: 388
    What surprises me the most is that Lineage 1 is still that strong. I thought the game had vanished and was a small community by now.
  • AlverantAlverant Member RarePosts: 1,347
    Serves them right for what they did to City of Heroes!
  • caetftlcaetftl Member Posts: 358
    I really hope this motivates anet to make some truly satisfying content to renew interest in the game... they basically have the monthly revenue of a 450k sub mmo... not awful... depending how much it costs to keep the whole operation running... but hardly a big player in today's market...
  • PioneerStewPioneerStew Member Posts: 874
    Originally posted by Aori
    Originally posted by Alverant
    Serves them right for what they did to City of Heroes!

    Serves who right? NCsofts IPs are Aion, Lineage and B&S which are doing better than Anets and Carbines. It is the Western companies that will feel the real pain of this deal.

    If anything can be seen is that the eastern developers know what they're doing for their audience while the western has and continues to struggle to figure out theirs.

    It reminds me of the old summer blockbuster adage that 'everyone understands explosions'.  

    Unfortunately designing for a wide audience removes all subtlety and nuance from a piece of work.  Maybe Western Developers just need to choose their audience in much the same way eastern developers seem to.  

  • Rayzer235Rayzer235 Member UncommonPosts: 63
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    I wonder why Aion is doing so well this quarter. It's normally not so profitable.

    They had some kind item promotions in Korea really brought in the money

  • Tracho12Tracho12 Member UncommonPosts: 136
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    Originally posted by Rayzer235
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    I wonder why Aion is doing so well this quarter. It's normally not so profitable.

    They had some kind item promotions in Korea really brought in the money

    I guess so lol. I checked the last couple of quarters because I was curious. It made 22Bn won in the first and 18Bn in the second so they nearly doubled their revenue from last quarter. That is pretty crazy. I wonder if that will hold up and how it will compare to the first two quarters in the next report.

     

    I'm sure I'll take some flack for this but Aion is a much better game than Guild Wars 2.

  • ArglebargleArglebargle Member EpicPosts: 3,482
    Originally posted by Alverant
    Serves them right for what they did to City of Heroes!

    Yeah, I haven't given NCSoft a penny since then.  I might be mollified if they actually sell the IP and CoH gets going again.  Maybe....

    If you are holding out for the perfect game, the only game you play will be the waiting one.

  • MorlewenMorlewen Member UncommonPosts: 45
    Originally posted by PioneerStew
    Originally posted by Rayzer235
    On GW2 Expansion this was said in the call: 
    • From conference call: " The game is now two years old. And therefore in the not too far future we do think that we will have an opportunity to show our plans about expansion packs for this game" .

    Also NCsoft is holding some sort of press conference about their future plans.

    Translates as 'living story is not achieving adequate profit' (as any casual observer could have told them two years ago), 'so we are being forced to create a long overdue expansion'

    It could also be translated as : We have optimised our LW concept during season 2. Now we can ship larger quantity of content via seasons. Therefore future seasons will be sold via our gem store. This gives our players the opportunity to obtain seasons with gold too.

  • AmjocoAmjoco Member UncommonPosts: 4,860
    Originally posted by Tracho12
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    Originally posted by Rayzer235
    Originally posted by Torvaldr
    I wonder why Aion is doing so well this quarter. It's normally not so profitable.

    They had some kind item promotions in Korea really brought in the money

    I guess so lol. I checked the last couple of quarters because I was curious. It made 22Bn won in the first and 18Bn in the second so they nearly doubled their revenue from last quarter. That is pretty crazy. I wonder if that will hold up and how it will compare to the first two quarters in the next report.

     

    I'm sure I'll take some flack for this but Aion is a much better game than Guild Wars 2.

    It really depends on your play style. I really liked Aion but I hate being forced into playing PvP. GW2 offers a choice with a newer questing system and the choice of when you want to PvP. I have went to the Aion login screen countless times to just log back out, because I didn't want to commit time to being slaughtered. 

    Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter Member UncommonPosts: 3,066
    Originally posted by Krelian
    Originally posted by augustgrace
    Add me to those surprised by how close GW2 and Wildstar are.  Either Wildstar isn't doing nearly as bad as recent press/hype would have us believe, or GW2 is in a heap of trouble.

    So, umm,, honest question, which one is it?

    Wildstar ain't actually doing so bad or it is GWII thats going down the hill?

    WildStar total revenues so far: $40M

     

    GW2 total revenues so far: $323M + unknown Chinese royalties

     

    In its second quarter of activity WildStar revenue is lower than any quarter of GW2 revenue, that is in its ninth quarter,

    How many years will WildStar need just to reach the $323M+ that GW2 already made?

     

     

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • GeezerGamerGeezerGamer Member EpicPosts: 8,857

    While it's an interesting comparison, I don't think it's a really good picture at this point. WS is still riding the crest of its release.

    I'd expect WS's earnings next year/quarter to be significant'y less than it is now.

    Also, I think what is important here are NCSoft's expectations for each title. That's info we don't have. I would imagine WS was expected to bring in much more than it did, so while they appear to be close on a chart, GW2 may or may not have reached NCSoft's expectations. Though I imagine they expected more, but I am saying we just don't know.

  • Gaia_HunterGaia_Hunter Member UncommonPosts: 3,066
    Originally posted by GeezerGamer

    While it's an interesting comparison, I don't think it's a really good picture at this point. WS is still riding the crest of its release.

    I'd expect WS's earnings next year/quarter to be significant'y less than it is now.

    Also, I think what is important here are NCSoft's expectations for each title. That's info we don't have. I would imagine WS was expected to bring in much more than it did, so while they appear to be close on a chart, GW2 may or may not have reached NCSoft's expectations. Though I imagine they expected more, but I am saying we just don't know.

    They have claimed, at least in the past, that GW2 exceeded their expectations.

    If it that is still true or not it is unknown.

    On the other hand, we know that NCSoft historically deals with underperforming products by laying people off, firing senior management, shutting down game regions or even shutting down the games completely.

    Considering there was layoffs on the west side of their business recently, but Arenanet was untouched, it seems that at least Arenanet has lots of goodwill coming their way.

    Currently playing: GW2
    Going cardboard starter kit: Ticket to ride, Pandemic, Carcassonne, Dominion, 7 Wonders

  • stevebombsquadstevebombsquad Member UncommonPosts: 884
    Originally posted by Gaia_Hunter
    Originally posted by GeezerGamer

    While it's an interesting comparison, I don't think it's a really good picture at this point. WS is still riding the crest of its release.

    I'd expect WS's earnings next year/quarter to be significant'y less than it is now.

    Also, I think what is important here are NCSoft's expectations for each title. That's info we don't have. I would imagine WS was expected to bring in much more than it did, so while they appear to be close on a chart, GW2 may or may not have reached NCSoft's expectations. Though I imagine they expected more, but I am saying we just don't know.

    They have claimed, at least in the past, that GW2 exceeded their expectations.

    If it that is still true or not it is unknown.

    On the other hand, we know that NCSoft historically deals with underperforming products by laying people off, firing senior management, shutting down game regions or even shutting down the games completely.

    Considering there was layoffs on the west side of their business recently, but Arenanet was untouched, it seems that at least Arenanet has lots of goodwill coming their way.

    I think this is mostly due to the fact that they appear to be working on an expansion. The conference call implied that. They most likely would not downsize a team that is needed. I will be interesting to see how it turns out. Also, comparing a B2P game to a P2P game isn't really valid. B2P and F2P usually generate more revenue, though it appears Wildstar is a flop. It obviously is not performing up to standard which is witnessed in how they cut the staff.

    James T. Kirk: All she's got isn't good enough! What else ya got?

  • botrytisbotrytis Member RarePosts: 3,363

    Well, the 'Doom and Gloom' squad is out again. Wildstar is a P2P game and GW2 is not, that nugget of information means WS is doing poorly compared to GW2.

    People, GW2 isn't going anywhere. Why don't you actually do something with all that energy besides hating a game. You might actually fix global warming or find the perfect auto fuel. Spending energy to hate on a game is kind of pathetic.


  • caetftlcaetftl Member Posts: 358
    Originally posted by botrytis

    Well, the 'Doom and Gloom' squad is out again. Wildstar is a P2P game and GW2 is not, that nugget of information means WS is doing poorly compared to GW2.

    People, GW2 isn't going anywhere. Why don't you actually do something with all that energy besides hating a game. You might actually fix global warming or find the perfect auto fuel. Spending energy to hate on a game is kind of pathetic.

    Less than 6million USD a month in revenue isn't really doing well in any MMORPG in this day and age... It's the equivalent of less than a 400k sub game at 15 dollars a month... Especially with how much it costs to keep these games running in this day and age...

     

    Basically gw2 is performing about as well as DAOC did 10 years ago...

     

    To believe the game is doing well or even fine is extremely silly... and those types of players end up hurting the game long term because they don't hold the game to a better standard... the game needs to be better... or else it doesn't grow and improve its state... and right now it is in a poor state... it may be less lucrative than eve online...

  • NasaNasa Member UncommonPosts: 749

    I think this data from the 2 first GW2 quarters is missing from the debate about WS/GW2:

    source: http://global.ncsoft.com/global/ir/earnings.aspx

  • caetftlcaetftl Member Posts: 358
    Originally posted by Nasa

    I think this data from the 2 first GW2 quarters is missing from the debate about WS/GW2:

    GW2 launched on aug 28... near the backend of 3q...  it also had a b2p model which is meant to fetch a lot more initial copies sold....

  • botrytisbotrytis Member RarePosts: 3,363
    Originally posted by caetftl
    Originally posted by botrytis

    Well, the 'Doom and Gloom' squad is out again. Wildstar is a P2P game and GW2 is not, that nugget of information means WS is doing poorly compared to GW2.

    People, GW2 isn't going anywhere. Why don't you actually do something with all that energy besides hating a game. You might actually fix global warming or find the perfect auto fuel. Spending energy to hate on a game is kind of pathetic.

    Less than 6million USD a month in revenue isn't really doing well in any MMORPG in this day and age... It's the equivalent of less than a 400k sub game at 15 dollars a month... Especially with how much it costs to keep these games running in this day and age...

     

    Basically gw2 is performing about as well as DAOC did 10 years ago...

     

    To believe the game is doing well or even fine is extremely silly... and those types of players end up hurting the game long term because they don't hold the game to a better standard... the game needs to be better... or else it doesn't grow and improve its state... and right now it is in a poor state... it may be less lucrative than eve online...

    AHH - this game is B2P - buy the box and you don't pay anything else. What other MMO is doing that besides GW1 (and that one is still going BTW). All the others are sub optional - this one has NO SUCH OPTION. You can say that but think of it this way, That is 6 million more than that had the previous month.  Comparing it to a P2P is like comparing an Apple to a nice porterhouse steak.

    Can't compare the 2 - sorry.


  • AmjocoAmjoco Member UncommonPosts: 4,860
    This battle comes out every quarter with the same banter back and forth. It's a great game no matter what the profits or losses are. If you don't like it you aren't playing and none of the graphs reflect the amount of money you have put towards it. Why worry about it then?

    Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.

  • BailoPan15BailoPan15 Member Posts: 410
    Originally posted by caetftl

    Especially with how much it costs to keep these games running in this day and age...

     

    I'm not sure if you are brainwashed by the likes of WoW or TESO or FFXIV but running an online game in this "day and age" is actually a lot cheaper than it used to be last year, and the year before that, and the one before that and .... you get my point.

    Pretty sure my i7 CPU now beats all the processing power of the initial WoW servers back in the day at least tenfold. So that's that. And it didn't cost thousands of dollars you know. 

    Just my 2 cents. 

  • AmjocoAmjoco Member UncommonPosts: 4,860
    Originally posted by BailoPan15
    Originally posted by caetftl

    Especially with how much it costs to keep these games running in this day and age...

     

    I'm not sure if you are brainwashed by the likes of WoW or TESO or FFXIV but running an online game in this "day and age" is actually a lot cheaper than it used to be last year, and the year before that, and the one before that and .... you get my point.

    Pretty sure my i7 CPU now beats all the processing power of the initial WoW servers back in the day at least tenfold. So that's that. And it didn't cost thousands of dollars you know. 

    Just my 2 cents. 

    Servers may cost less to run, but the people that develop the games and those associated with it need to get paid. The cost of living has gradually went up and you still pay the same $14.99 you did when WoW released. 

    Death is nothing to us, since when we are, Death has not come, and when death has come, we are not.

  • gervaise1gervaise1 Member EpicPosts: 6,919

    As Gaia_Hunter posted above if one wants to do a comparison between WS and GW2 then you have to look at things like Lifetime Revenue and Lifetime Costs.

    Stop and think; if a few weeks ago Activision had come out and announced that WoW's revenue had plummeted to $17M USD (thank you Sevenstar61) we wouldn't be saying: ha, ha look at WoW only doing a bit better than WS; is WoW a failure or WS?

    Lifetime revenue; lifetime costs and - what we don't know - lifetime profits. 

     

    If we focus on Wildstar then this quarter actually looks "about the same" as last quarter (figure in millions of KRW not dollars)

    • Revenue Q2 28,084; Revenue Q3 16,007
    • Marketing Q1 3,606; Marketing Q2 14,790; Marketing Q3 5.789. WS attributed the spike in Q2 to WS
    • Box production Q1 350; Box production Q2 1230; Box Production Q3 334. Again the spike in Q2 was attributed to WS and the drop in Q3 to "less sales!" of WS.
    The upshot however is that whilst revenue was down 12k on Q3 there was also a fall in Marketing of 9k and in box production costs of 1k. So net revenue was "only down" about 2k.
     
    Factor in the reduction in staff costs (c. 60 heads reported) and basically Q3 was "as bad as Q2" but not worse - in balance sheet terms.
     
    And for all intents and purposes it means that NCSoft are "never" going to recoup what they spent a) buying Carbine b) making WS.
     
    So it all comes down to the day-to-day situation (closing it right away being a bad move and/or unnecessary). So they redo the projected revenue; then shed staff, axe further work; embargo new expenditure, review software license costs and so on. This takes a few months at which time you look again at your projected revenue and on-going costs. 
     
    And it will be a while before the staff that are left know if they will still be there some months down the line. Because next month there will be no off-setting reduction in e.g. marketing. If revenue drops then net revenue will drop. And the only way to offset that is - basically - by employing fewer staff.
     
     
    And that is were GW2 kicks in. It didn't have staff cuts which suggests that the "on-going" situation is OK. It will already have had staff cuts in the last two years. Now it is (presumably) covering its costs and then some. So WS's key target for next quarter will be to make as much revenue in Q4 as it did in Q3. I don't think it will but that is simply a gut feel based on a) initial subs usually decline further b) sales of sub based games tend to drop off much quicker than they do with b2p games like GW2.
     
     
  • BailoPan15BailoPan15 Member Posts: 410
    Originally posted by Amjoco
    Originally posted by BailoPan15
    Originally posted by caetftl

    Especially with how much it costs to keep these games running in this day and age...

     

    I'm not sure if you are brainwashed by the likes of WoW or TESO or FFXIV but running an online game in this "day and age" is actually a lot cheaper than it used to be last year, and the year before that, and the one before that and .... you get my point.

    Pretty sure my i7 CPU now beats all the processing power of the initial WoW servers back in the day at least tenfold. So that's that. And it didn't cost thousands of dollars you know. 

    Just my 2 cents. 

    Servers may cost less to run, but the people that develop the games and those associated with it need to get paid. The cost of living has gradually went up and you still pay the same $14.99 you did when WoW released. 

    Hello, in this "day and age" everybody and their dog plays online games. So maybe he's paying those 15$ as he did 10 years ago but there are millions of other potential customers. Also with bandwidth and hardware getting cheaper those salaries are not really an issue. The Gw2 profit here is clear revenue if im not mistaken? So that's after costs! 

    And despite what big studios have you believe that creating content is super expensive, that's load of crap. I mean sure if you count the man hours and then calculate the salary those said people should receive I guess its expensive *thinks* ... then again you have these people working for you so you'll be coughing up this cash whether the people who work for you watch youtube vids all day or produce content :)

    In any way, 20 mil in 3 months is freaking amazing. Wish my company was making that amount of cash lol 

  • laseritlaserit Member LegendaryPosts: 7,591
    Originally posted by Amjoco
    Originally posted by BailoPan15
    Originally posted by caetftl

    Especially with how much it costs to keep these games running in this day and age...

     

    I'm not sure if you are brainwashed by the likes of WoW or TESO or FFXIV but running an online game in this "day and age" is actually a lot cheaper than it used to be last year, and the year before that, and the one before that and .... you get my point.

    Pretty sure my i7 CPU now beats all the processing power of the initial WoW servers back in the day at least tenfold. So that's that. And it didn't cost thousands of dollars you know. 

    Just my 2 cents. 

    Servers may cost less to run, but the people that develop the games and those associated with it need to get paid. The cost of living has gradually went up and you still pay the same $14.99 you did when WoW released. 

    Your also selling 5 million copies instead of 200,000

     

    "Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee

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