Soon enough. I've counted 5 real life people who are leaving MMOs because they can't stand the free ones any longer. All people I've worked with. It shocked me when I couldn't give a beta key away to a game and heard their stories. Some of them are doing the mobile thing and a couple just said F it all, they still talk about Star Wars Galaxies all these years later. Counting me makes 6 soooo....
All that needs to happen is the 5-15% of people paying for those free games die and it's all over for the free people. End of story.
They'll find something else to do like VR and forget about MMOs since they were always insatiable anyway - wanting to play 10 at once. They just couldn't afford 10 at once so that's their exit point. The big companies will leave because their big budgets demand it. Then all that will be left will be some indies floating the boat. It'll be back to where it should be instead of mainstream attention it got. The posers will probably just trickle off into the MOBAs, that's what they like anyway, casual, short games sold in pieces.
You are going to see some crazy things though once indies take over so get ready is all I have to say. Once it stops being about free and goes back to the gameplay the competition ramps right back up which is nothing short of amazing for the consumers. This is the theme song I envision for the indies - especially on that drop section about the 3:40 mark - woooo.
"Soon enough"? We're living in 2015, where an incredible amount of knowledge is available online. We don't have to rely on unreliable things like what our 5 friends are doing. We can look online and find things like this source (which conveniently calls non-MMOs "MMOs" so that you can compare the real MMOs against other major multiplayer games.) So we can drop the uneducated guesswork and know what's actually happening in real life.
In real life, MMORPGs are doing fine. They're right up there with the other major multiplayer games.
Those free games mostly don't have 5-15% of players paying. It's more often 0.5% to 2.0%. Those payers aren't magically going to stop enjoying games and paying for them. Oh sure, there will be genuinely bad games that don't make enough to survive, but there will always be free games supported by a slim group of payers too.
Basically the only thing you're saying which is actually feasible is that more indie developers might enter the space over time, as tool development matures and makes creating games in the genre more accessible (and cheaper.) But then you move onto nonsense like calling MOBAs casual. Remember that MOBAs are games of pure skill vs. skill competition, while MMORPGs are the genre which is built upon the casual appeal of progression (can't beat that monster? Just level a few times and he'll be easy!)
"What is truly revealing is his implication that believing something to be true is the same as it being true. [continue]" -John Oliver
MMORPGs built as strong RPGs will continue to perform well. They will not die "soon", apocalyptic events notwithstanding.
When you want to know the health of the market, you look at the health of the market. So I'm not sure why you implied surveying your friends is even relevant. We looked at the market and the market was healthy. If the market was dying "soon", it wouldn't look healthy.
Superdata doesn't sell games. So your tinfoiling about them wanting gamers to switch to MOBAs sounds really crazy.
A 7% drop in MMO revenue doesn't mean the genre is dying "soon". That's like saying EQ died "fast". It didn't. It has the same long tail as any entertainment product.
What's a long tail? It refers to the graph of revenue over time for a game, like this one for Monument Valley:
The long tail is the period after release where revenue naturally declines. The tail is actually much longer and stronger in games with ongoing revenue (subscription/microtransaction). MV would've had another spike and tail a bit further down the line with their content release but it too was a single-purchase sort of deal.
Why would we take Asia out of a graph? Gamers are gamers. Don't be racist.
Bad games happen. If Archeage is legitimately a bad game, it will do poorly. Nobody's saying every MMORPG is successful, only that the market is clearly not dying soon.
Regarding death: you realize people are born too, right? Maybe some ancient Roman said to his gambling friends, "When you're all dead, there won't be any gambling!" Well, they're all dead. Yet gambling persists.
Free players jumping games is the strength of the F2P model. Players don't pay until after they've played the game. They get to experience it. This is far better than B2P models where players purchase the game before playing (which means they're buying the hype/image of the product, rather than the product itself.)
I explained pretty clearly why MOBAs (where only skill determines victory) are more skill-centric than MMORPGs (where skill and progression determine victory). RPGs are fundamentally a more casual genre as a result. Sessions being shorter doesn't really speak to the skill involved, which is a more meaningful measure of a hardcore game.
"What is truly revealing is his implication that believing something to be true is the same as it being true. [continue]" -John Oliver
Originally posted by Kyleran So you know the answer to the question, what is the point of this thread?
To re-ignite the fire... the more times you say the same thing... the longer the fire burns.
Absolute 100% true answer to the question... the moment you die.
Well it's not like we don't get tons of other threads which are even more targeted at igniting the flames. What's more in the grand scheme of things. This one actually is not even that much of a flame bait, unlike all the topics about oldshool MMOs and EQ. Nowadays you know that as soon as EQ is mentioned its going to be a flame bait
Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.
I've always played an MMO of one sort or another, until now, and i never will again.
i was 28 when i started. Now, im 40 with a busy job, wife and two young children. The older i have got, the more conscious i have been about sinking time into a gaming genre that does require time investment to feel any tangible rewards.
Until my decision to walk away, I would get sucked into playing more hours than i should as someone with responsibilities and eventually i said to myself that the MMO genre, even if played casually, was a greater time sink than other games that you might be able to pick up for 30-60 mins, achieve something and then move on. When you consider the hours of play that many people put into MMOs to get a good character and progress, i wonder if the modern world and age profile of gamers means that people are looking for the more casual game to spend spare leisure time on?
MMO's are a profitable industry, even if it is becoming more diverse, chances are that MMO's will be around long after everyone who currently uses this forum has died, and why not, they are a fun form of entertainment, and far cheaper than many alternatives.
The other 23 hours and 30 minutes of the day though, its fairly busy
Sometimes i wonder if the Internet will totally replace television as the main 'media' for entertainment and information, if it wasn't for the wife watching Emmerdale and Coronation street i doubt we'd have the television on at all, she even watches Jeremy Kyle on her Laptop now... thank god.
My husband watches television all the news programs then the politics discussion sessions on each night and comedy on politics in Italy. I do not use the television I am on the computer even for news. Opposite of your situation.
The other 23 hours and 30 minutes of the day though, its fairly busy
Sometimes i wonder if the Internet will totally replace television as the main 'media' for entertainment and information, if it wasn't for the wife watching Emmerdale and Coronation street i doubt we'd have the television on at all, she even watches Jeremy Kyle on her Laptop now... thank god.
For me the internet replaced the TV couple of years ago. Why? Commercials, that's why.
Here in Germany, you get 20 minutes of commercials for a 40 minute show. What the heck? Why would I watch this when I can just go to the various VOD providers and watch it without commercials.
Commercials in TV are cancer, it's so bad in Germany I can only imagine what it's like in the US.
The other 23 hours and 30 minutes of the day though, its fairly busy
Sometimes i wonder if the Internet will totally replace television as the main 'media' for entertainment and information, if it wasn't for the wife watching Emmerdale and Coronation street i doubt we'd have the television on at all, she even watches Jeremy Kyle on her Laptop now... thank god.
For me the internet replaced the TV couple of years ago. Why? Commercials, that's why.
Here in Germany, you get 20 minutes of commercials for a 40 minute show. What the heck? Why would I watch this when I can just go to the various VOD providers and watch it without commercials.
Commercials in TV are cancer, it's so bad in Germany I can only imagine what it's like in the US.
edit: someone invent adblock for TVs already
This is probably one of the reasons why the BBC is looking to change how the licence fee is paid, at the moment, you don't need a TV licence to watch 'catchup' programs on the internet from whatever source, but the BBC in the UK is looking to have everyone pay the licence fee, regardless as to whether they even own a television and/or watch live television, more than a little controversial, if they can make it work here in the UK you can be pretty sure that other countries will take an interest and perhaps adopt similar methods
Originally posted by mgilbrtsn I've heard for years, that MMOs were dying or dead. There are posts, threads, rants, and more dedicated to this symphony of gloomn. Thus far, there are still a lot of MMOs, and many companies are making profits.There are still games upcoming that are being produced, so the genre won't die until at least 2016. So the question remains, when is the MMO dead. Of course, the discussion will involve a lot of "what is your definition of dead" type of posts. For me it's simple. When people aren't making MMOs, the genre is dead.Your thoughts or prognostication on what the time of death will or did occur.
The other 23 hours and 30 minutes of the day though, its fairly busy
Sometimes i wonder if the Internet will totally replace television as the main 'media' for entertainment and information, if it wasn't for the wife watching Emmerdale and Coronation street i doubt we'd have the television on at all, she even watches Jeremy Kyle on her Laptop now... thank god.
For me the internet replaced the TV couple of years ago. Why? Commercials, that's why.
Here in Germany, you get 20 minutes of commercials for a 40 minute show. What the heck? Why would I watch this when I can just go to the various VOD providers and watch it without commercials.
Commercials in TV are cancer, it's so bad in Germany I can only imagine what it's like in the US.
edit: someone invent adblock for TVs already
This is probably one of the reasons why the BBC is looking to change how the licence fee is paid, at the moment, you don't need a TV licence to watch 'catchup' programs on the internet from whatever source, but the BBC in the UK is looking to have everyone pay the licence fee, regardless as to whether they even own a television and/or watch live television, more than a little controversial, if they can make it work here in the UK you can be pretty sure that other countries will take an interest and perhaps adopt similar methods
Pfft, in my country weve been paying "fee for public TV station" since it exists (like 50ies)
There was some turmoil in recent times of wehther you have to pay if you dont own TV, but they cought on quite nicely, if you own "any device capable of reproducing TV programme" you have to pay. And they can bring in police if you claim you dont own any ;P
Copycats hah
But commercials are limited to 3-5 minutes/hour which beats watching commercials with film breaks on commercial TV stations ;P
Comments
"Soon enough"? We're living in 2015, where an incredible amount of knowledge is available online. We don't have to rely on unreliable things like what our 5 friends are doing. We can look online and find things like this source (which conveniently calls non-MMOs "MMOs" so that you can compare the real MMOs against other major multiplayer games.) So we can drop the uneducated guesswork and know what's actually happening in real life.
In real life, MMORPGs are doing fine. They're right up there with the other major multiplayer games.
Those free games mostly don't have 5-15% of players paying. It's more often 0.5% to 2.0%. Those payers aren't magically going to stop enjoying games and paying for them. Oh sure, there will be genuinely bad games that don't make enough to survive, but there will always be free games supported by a slim group of payers too.
Basically the only thing you're saying which is actually feasible is that more indie developers might enter the space over time, as tool development matures and makes creating games in the genre more accessible (and cheaper.) But then you move onto nonsense like calling MOBAs casual. Remember that MOBAs are games of pure skill vs. skill competition, while MMORPGs are the genre which is built upon the casual appeal of progression (can't beat that monster? Just level a few times and he'll be easy!)
"What is truly revealing is his implication that believing something to be true is the same as it being true. [continue]" -John Oliver
MMORPGs built as strong RPGs will continue to perform well. They will not die "soon", apocalyptic events notwithstanding.
When you want to know the health of the market, you look at the health of the market. So I'm not sure why you implied surveying your friends is even relevant. We looked at the market and the market was healthy. If the market was dying "soon", it wouldn't look healthy.
Superdata doesn't sell games. So your tinfoiling about them wanting gamers to switch to MOBAs sounds really crazy.
A 7% drop in MMO revenue doesn't mean the genre is dying "soon". That's like saying EQ died "fast". It didn't. It has the same long tail as any entertainment product.
What's a long tail? It refers to the graph of revenue over time for a game, like this one for Monument Valley:
The long tail is the period after release where revenue naturally declines. The tail is actually much longer and stronger in games with ongoing revenue (subscription/microtransaction). MV would've had another spike and tail a bit further down the line with their content release but it too was a single-purchase sort of deal.
Why would we take Asia out of a graph? Gamers are gamers. Don't be racist.
Bad games happen. If Archeage is legitimately a bad game, it will do poorly. Nobody's saying every MMORPG is successful, only that the market is clearly not dying soon.
Regarding death: you realize people are born too, right? Maybe some ancient Roman said to his gambling friends, "When you're all dead, there won't be any gambling!" Well, they're all dead. Yet gambling persists.
Free players jumping games is the strength of the F2P model. Players don't pay until after they've played the game. They get to experience it. This is far better than B2P models where players purchase the game before playing (which means they're buying the hype/image of the product, rather than the product itself.)
I explained pretty clearly why MOBAs (where only skill determines victory) are more skill-centric than MMORPGs (where skill and progression determine victory). RPGs are fundamentally a more casual genre as a result. Sessions being shorter doesn't really speak to the skill involved, which is a more meaningful measure of a hardcore game.
"What is truly revealing is his implication that believing something to be true is the same as it being true. [continue]" -John Oliver
Well it's not like we don't get tons of other threads which are even more targeted at igniting the flames. What's more in the grand scheme of things. This one actually is not even that much of a flame bait, unlike all the topics about oldshool MMOs and EQ. Nowadays you know that as soon as EQ is mentioned its going to be a flame bait
Mission in life: Vanquish all MMORPG.com trolls - especially TESO, WOW and GW2 trolls.
i was 28 when i started. Now, im 40 with a busy job, wife and two young children. The older i have got, the more conscious i have been about sinking time into a gaming genre that does require time investment to feel any tangible rewards.
Until my decision to walk away, I would get sucked into playing more hours than i should as someone with responsibilities and eventually i said to myself that the MMO genre, even if played casually, was a greater time sink than other games that you might be able to pick up for 30-60 mins, achieve something and then move on. When you consider the hours of play that many people put into MMOs to get a good character and progress, i wonder if the modern world and age profile of gamers means that people are looking for the more casual game to spend spare leisure time on?
EVE is usually pretty dead at down time..
The other 23 hours and 30 minutes of the day though, its fairly busy
Sometimes i wonder if the Internet will totally replace television as the main 'media' for entertainment and information, if it wasn't for the wife watching Emmerdale and Coronation street i doubt we'd have the television on at all, she even watches Jeremy Kyle on her Laptop now... thank god.
For me the internet replaced the TV couple of years ago. Why? Commercials, that's why.
Here in Germany, you get 20 minutes of commercials for a 40 minute show. What the heck? Why would I watch this when I can just go to the various VOD providers and watch it without commercials.
Commercials in TV are cancer, it's so bad in Germany I can only imagine what it's like in the US.
edit: someone invent adblock for TVs already
This is probably one of the reasons why the BBC is looking to change how the licence fee is paid, at the moment, you don't need a TV licence to watch 'catchup' programs on the internet from whatever source, but the BBC in the UK is looking to have everyone pay the licence fee, regardless as to whether they even own a television and/or watch live television, more than a little controversial, if they can make it work here in the UK you can be pretty sure that other countries will take an interest and perhaps adopt similar methods
11:24 pm on 12/15/2015
Pfft, in my country weve been paying "fee for public TV station" since it exists (like 50ies)
There was some turmoil in recent times of wehther you have to pay if you dont own TV, but they cought on quite nicely, if you own "any device capable of reproducing TV programme" you have to pay. And they can bring in police if you claim you dont own any ;P
Copycats hah
But commercials are limited to 3-5 minutes/hour which beats watching commercials with film breaks on commercial TV stations ;P