2. How will WoW's subs hold up? I share SBFord's opinion that the big drop is next quarter. Below 4M wouldn't be a surprise although tokens may keep it above this. EU forums in particular are quiet these days.
3. Can the decline be arrested? Short term no. The damage, imo, was the 14 months of no new content after MoP. Lots of time for people who stayed to do everything. WoD had to deliver; it was a quick blast but no staying power. And with nothing new now until Legion people seem to be leaving. The film is what AB are hoping for. Will be tough though.
All about investment? Absolutely. AB though, imo, took subscribers for granted. Last - September? - they talked about "doubling there team of 125". What struck me was how few that was - no wonder the content patches dried up. Blizzard could have employed a nex xpac team and a content patch team but opted to spend less. And they are now reaping the reward.
4. Sequel. None.
5. F2P? It might go B2P with paid DLC first. If they ever manage to produce regular content. This would avoid a potential huge influx of players and subsequent server issues. F2P in e.g. China? Not Blizzard's decision alone - if they even have a say. They don't operate the game in China. Same goes for Malaysia, Thailand etc. etc. They work with partners and agreements would need to be made / re-negotiated. Which they may not want to do if WoW is no longer "as big" a game - their partners may want a bigger share!
It should have also been mentioned that Blizz makes $20 off a portion of their subs through the WoW token.
It will be a factor of course and the revenue/subs calc I did above suggests it could have been significant. A c. 25% increase from $9 pre-WoD to over $11 last quarter. (Remember though that the average sub number used could over or under state the actual number.)
AB also reported negative deferred revenue for next quarter - possibly the result of applying a $15 per token credit to peoples accounts? for services paid for by the token buyer but not yet received by the token buyer? (It suggests about 4.5M unused tokens.)
Whether this is so or not doesn't obscure the fact that revenue was significantly down last quarter. And - unless the same number of tokens are sold this quarter as were last, unlikely I suggest - then next months revenue will potentially take a double hit: from the deferred revenue and probably a further fall in subs. And the average revenue per player could fall significantly as well.
I remember playing WoW in beta and thinking its an OK game but I dont see much appeal for it after a couple of months....What we didn't see was that those who didn't play MMOs absolutely loved it.....Those of us that came from EQ, FFXI, DAoC, and others found the game on the easy side because there were no death penalties other than gold and your gear didn't drop when you died.
We're seeing the same kinds of problems right now in Final Fantasy XIV as well. It's got a strong single player experience with some multiplayer requirements on dungeons, but the end game is an abysmal trap of mouse traps and little fresh content. Heavensward has been especially bad due to only having two dungeons to rotate in the Ex roulette, which is required to get decent currency to upgrade gear. Otherwise people have to run Alexander (which Yoshi will likely patch and make it easier to get drops, leading to people praising him like a god).
The issue is that themepark designed MMOs really aren't MMORPGs. They are single player games with a focus on group related content and shove what resembles traditional MMORPG systems in to add some kind of sustainability.
1. Blizzard will not make another MMO.
2. WoW will continue to bleed subs.
3. In 2025, there will still be people playing WoW.
4. MMORPG.com will continue making redundant and pointless articles about WoW sub numbers.
5. People will still talk about how terrible of a game it is.
You guys getting hot and bothered over Wizardry's trolling are silly. The man can't write. He can't spell. He seems to think his opinion is somehow worth more than yours. Just look at his posting history and write him off forever.
The tin foil hat guesstimating about Chinese subscribers makes this article/forum troll rant just pure GOLD.
Did this really need to be an article MMORPG.COM?
Also, it amazes me that people are still so hung up over WoWs numbers and 11 years later giving their best arm chair analyst prediction on how WoW can pull itself out of this death spiral.
Well, I guess, for starters WoW could try not being an 11 year old game. Oh ...wait
Oh I guess they weren't aware you were the only one allowed to give his best arm chair analyst prediction...
The tin foil hat guesstimating about Chinese subscribers makes this article/forum troll rant just pure GOLD.
Did this really need to be an article MMORPG.COM?
Also, it amazes me that people are still so hung up over WoWs numbers and 11 years later giving their best arm chair analyst prediction on how WoW can pull itself out of this death spiral.
Well, I guess, for starters WoW could try not being an 11 year old game. Oh ...wait
Oh I guess they weren't aware you were the only one allowed to give his best arm chair analyst prediction...
Where in my post did I give an analytical prediction as to the percentage of Chinese subscribers currently playing WoW?
10 billion in gross revenue as of 2012 and look at the game today.
Imagine if they put 5% a year back into development... I wonder what type of game we would have today.
A company "Trumpf" that I purchase High-tech equipment from, invests 40% of revenues back into R&D and it shows.
You have got it spot on. Blizzard could afford to put their initial cost of the game back into the game every year in terms of improvements and enhancements, of which I could think of hundreds of things - but instead, they dished out paid for expansions and a cash shop to increase the revenues, without giving much away in between. With their resources, they could easily have ensured WoW grew and grew, not shrunk. Such a wasted opportunity.
The tin foil hat guesstimating about Chinese subscribers makes this article/forum troll rant just pure GOLD.
Did this really need to be an article MMORPG.COM?
Also, it amazes me that people are still so hung up over WoWs numbers and 11 years later giving their best arm chair analyst prediction on how WoW can pull itself out of this death spiral.
Well, I guess, for starters WoW could try not being an 11 year old game. Oh ...wait
Oh I guess they weren't aware you were the only one allowed to give his best arm chair analyst prediction...
Where in my post did I give an analytical prediction as to the percentage of Chinese subscribers currently playing WoW?
Oh, yeah, I didnt.
I didn't say about the Chinese subs....your doom and gloom arm chair analyst was the only way wow can stop the death spiral was well to not be wow ...again only you are allowed to made those analyst right? Only you
The tin foil hat guesstimating about Chinese subscribers makes this article/forum troll rant just pure GOLD.
Did this really need to be an article MMORPG.COM?
Also, it amazes me that people are still so hung up over WoWs numbers and 11 years later giving their best arm chair analyst prediction on how WoW can pull itself out of this death spiral.
Well, I guess, for starters WoW could try not being an 11 year old game. Oh ...wait
Oh I guess they weren't aware you were the only one allowed to give his best arm chair analyst prediction...
Where in my post did I give an analytical prediction as to the percentage of Chinese subscribers currently playing WoW?
Oh, yeah, I didnt.
I didn't say about the Chinese subs....your doom and gloom arm chair analyst was the only way wow can stop the death spiral was well to not be wow ...again only you are allowed to made those analyst right? Only you
So, that's why you are personally attacking me?
My joke about WoWs age? You actually thought that was supposed to be some kind of arm chair analyses?
Oh, dear God.
Yeah, you are totally right. Yep, I am the one and only person in the entire world that say what WoWs age is.
Comments
The issue is that themepark designed MMOs really aren't MMORPGs. They are single player games with a focus on group related content and shove what resembles traditional MMORPG systems in to add some kind of sustainability.
Oh, yeah, I didnt.
So, that's why you are personally attacking me?
My joke about WoWs age? You actually thought that was supposed to be some kind of arm chair analyses?
Oh, dear God.
Yeah, you are totally right. Yep, I am the one and only person in the entire world that say what WoWs age is.