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2 month break in content = free to play transition?

scorpex-xscorpex-x Member RarePosts: 1,030
Does this huge gap in content (2 months) give a sign to anyone else of a f2p transition?

I mean does anyone actually buy this 2 month holiday thing as reality, no company does this.  That's why it comes across as a smokescreen.

Rift went f2p around the time frame that XIV is at now (right after a mostly failed expansion), most MMO titles have a long break in content just before they go f2p so they can put the development work into going f2p.

I hope it does go f2p, although I've given up my sub on the game I would come back if it was free to mess around. 
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Comments

  • wyldmagikwyldmagik Member UncommonPosts: 516
    Don't be silly here, 2mnths is nothing regarding waiting for content. Where the heck do you get the idea its a bad thing? What is wrong are you such a conent junky and auty that you must have fresh baked goodies every morning for breakfast or something.
  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 11,004
    Its not, the game is far too successful as P2P for them to even consider going F2P, and besides which, how do you equate the team needing a 2 month break to some kind of F2P thing?
    Tbh, if your not interested in playing the game unless its F2P, then FFXIV:ARR isn't the game for you.
  • AlbatroesAlbatroes Member LegendaryPosts: 7,671
    The break is honestly to stall out the expansion. My guess is they hope they can milk 2 years or close to it before 4.0...That's SE for ya.
  • AkulasAkulas Member RarePosts: 3,029
    Their having a break after working for 10 months straight.

    This isn't a signature, you just think it is.

  • WizardryWizardry Member LegendaryPosts: 19,332
    No the smokescreen is following all these FAKE developers.

    I do not like the direction Square Enix took with their games about 3 years ago but i will acknowledge that they are a class act.They don't try to manipulate or fool anyone,they tell it straight up[.

    FFXIV is not going f2p and may never go f2p.

    The only scenario i ever see this happening is if they have no other game in the works and need to keep the game alive financially,.I see no indications of this of a very long time.

    BTW 2 months is a joke,any content taking less time is a joke.These guys were going full blast on both FFXI and FFXIV then finally had to give up on FFXI and focus entirely on FFXIV.I would say it has been a long last couple years and they most certainly deserve a break.

    I have always been satisfied with Square's ability to deliver content and often times unique content ,so i would not worry about f2p in even the slightest.


    Never forget 3 mile Island and never trust a government official or company spokesman.

  • goboygogoboygo Member RarePosts: 2,141
    No it means aliens have kidnapped the development team.  Or maybe they were all simultaneously struck by lighting.  Or a meteor hit their building.  Or ya maybe they are going F2P.
  • KajidourdenKajidourden Member EpicPosts: 3,030

    Thanks for the giggle.

  • YaevinduskYaevindusk Member RarePosts: 2,094
    edited October 2015
    Given that it launched at the end of June, it will moreso be a one month extension over their usual 3 month content updates.  Besides that, I'm not aware of them ever saying exactly how long they took a break for.  But working non-stop for a few years in rebuilding the game and supporting it would be taxing on anybody.  This is actually common practice in the industry, as WoW has noted itself (on a few of their expansions) taking breaks for a few weeks after each launch.  In fact, they even said they wanted to get 6.1 out as soon as possible before the team took their second break, and that that is why it was a hotfix patch with no actual content.

    But overall, this was a pretty funny post of trying to reach for what is not there.
    Due to frequent travel in my youth, English isn't something I consider my primary language (and thus I obtained quirky ways of writing).  German and French were always easier for me despite my family being U.S. citizens for over a century.  Spanish I learned as a requirement in school, Japanese and Korean I acquired for my youthful desire of anime and gaming (and also work now).  I only debate in English to help me work with it (and limit things).  In addition, I'm not smart enough to remain fluent in everything and typically need exposure to get in the groove of things again if I haven't heard it in a while.  If you understand Mandarin, I know a little, but it has actually been a challenge and could use some help.

    Also, I thoroughly enjoy debates and have accounts on over a dozen sites for this.  If you wish to engage in such, please put effort in a post and provide sources -- I will then do the same with what I already wrote (if I didn't) as well as with my responses to your own.  Expanding my information on a subject makes my stance either change or strengthen the next time I speak of it or write a thesis.  Allow me to thank you sincerely for your time.
  • scorpex-xscorpex-x Member RarePosts: 1,030
    edited October 2015
    As I have said I have seen this exact behavior from other developers...saw it on swtor, rift, tera and many other titles.   A long lul of content while the developers are working on f2p.  This is one of the worst possible times to take a 2 month break, everyone is complaining about the massive lack of content from the expansion.

    I am almost certain that is what is going on, no company would take a 2 month break like this.  If the holiday rubbish was true they would do it ever year, it's nonsense.

    Something they aren't telling us is going to happen with 3.1, something IS going on here.  Nobody with sense buys this holiday story, no company trying to build a game into a success releases an expansion lacking in content and just takes a 2 month break.

    A ) The game has fairly low subscriber numbers, 500k is not good for a game that costs as much as this game does to run.  The only reason it's called profitable at all is because they wrote off the development budget a few years back.
    B ) The expansion did not sell well, see Rift and their last chance at retaining p2p.
    C ) The game has failed in China, this is a huge market and just life Rift this was one of the reasons it had to go f2p.
    D ) The game is already in a poistion to move to f2p, unlike a game like FFXI this game already has a well stocked cash shop.
    E ) If you look at how other titles went f2p and when this is the time / way it usually happens.

    I might be wrong, but it's kinda suspicious and there is nobody that can say taking a 2 month break NOW is anything but incredibly stupid, so there has to be a reason. 

    We will see when 3.1 launches I guess, not that long to wait and see.
  • WarlyxWarlyx Member EpicPosts: 3,368
    lol , a game that its thinking in gong f2p doesnt waste lots of $$$ on putting servers on EUR (finally!) , and thats 10 days away :)

    http://eu.finalfantasyxiv.com/lodestone/topics/detail/788496765a5919621f4ddbda5426486ec21cf6d9

    perhaps taking a break for 2 months after working non-stop for long time isnt weird in Japan ?

    it sucks because i wanted 3.1 already....


  • Gobstopper3DGobstopper3D Member RarePosts: 970
    scorpex-x said:
    As I have said I have seen this exact behavior from other developers...saw it on swtor, rift, tera and many other titles.   A long lul of content while the developers are working on f2p.  This is one of the worst possible times to take a 2 month break, everyone is complaining about the massive lack of content from the expansion.

    I am almost certain that is what is going on, no company would take a 2 month break like this.  If the holiday rubbish was true they would do it ever year, it's nonsense.

    Something they aren't telling us is going to happen with 3.1, something IS going on here.  Nobody with sense buys this holiday story, no company trying to build a game into a success releases an expansion lacking in content and just takes a 2 month break.

    A ) The game has fairly low subscriber numbers, 500k is not good for a game that costs as much as this game does to run.  The only reason it's called profitable at all is because they wrote off the development budget a few years back.
    B ) The expansion did not sell well, see Rift and their last chance at retaining p2p.
    C ) The game has failed in China, this is a huge market and just life Rift this was one of the reasons it had to go f2p.
    D ) The game is already in a poistion to move to f2p, unlike a game like FFXI this game already has a well stocked cash shop.
    E ) If you look at how other titles went f2p and when this is the time / way it usually happens.

    I might be wrong, but it's kinda suspicious and there is nobody that can say taking a 2 month break NOW is anything but incredibly stupid, so there has to be a reason. 

    We will see when 3.1 launches I guess, not that long to wait and see.
    Thanks for the laugh!  Just FYI, when you say "Everyone is complaining about the massive lack of content", your including myself and everyone else in here and I'm not complaining, nor do I see anyone else complaining in the this thread about it.

    We get it, you want to play the game, but you don't want to pay for it.  Best move on and play one of the many F2P games available.

    I'm not an IT Specialist, Game Developer, or Clairvoyant in real life, but like others on here, I play one on the internet.

  • JeffSpicoliJeffSpicoli Member EpicPosts: 2,849
    I unsubbed a few weeks ago, game was great until i hit endgame and then the massive grind for poetics and tomes (tokens ) was just unbearable. I dont understand why or when mmo's decided a token system was more fun than your traditional unkown drops in raids and dungeons. To me, there is nothing more exciting than not knowing what piece of gear you may or may not get on any given night. Having everything laid out before you in black and white becomes so goddam boring.... Dont even get me started in FFARR crafting and that massive pointless grind,,,, Yeah not fun
    • Aloha Mr Hand ! 

  • zaberfangxzaberfangx Member UncommonPosts: 1,796
    If FF14 find ways to milk more money from some where then it never going f2p, as the sub fee at that cost only going last so long until cost to much to run the game and keep the game updated.
  • Loke666Loke666 Member EpicPosts: 21,441
    Phry said:
    Its not, the game is far too successful as P2P for them to even consider going F2P, and besides which, how do you equate the team needing a 2 month break to some kind of F2P thing?
    Tbh, if your not interested in playing the game unless its F2P, then FFXIV:ARR isn't the game for you.
    I dunno about "far too sucessful", the game is doing fine but it is not impossible it would do better as F2P. I do think the game is better as P2P though and I think SE think the same.

    2 months gap is nothing, Wow already had that and wont release anything more until the pre expansion patch. If it is a sign of anything it might be that they think releasing slightly fewer but somewhat larger patches are better.
  • DrisdaneDrisdane Member UncommonPosts: 97
    scorpex-x said:
    As I have said I have seen this exact behavior from other developers...saw it on swtor, rift, tera and many other titles.   A long lul of content while the developers are working on f2p.  This is one of the worst possible times to take a 2 month break, everyone is complaining about the massive lack of content from the expansion.

    I am almost certain that is what is going on, no company would take a 2 month break like this.  If the holiday rubbish was true they would do it ever year, it's nonsense.

    Something they aren't telling us is going to happen with 3.1, something IS going on here.  Nobody with sense buys this holiday story, no company trying to build a game into a success releases an expansion lacking in content and just takes a 2 month break.

    A ) The game has fairly low subscriber numbers, 500k is not good for a game that costs as much as this game does to run.  The only reason it's called profitable at all is because they wrote off the development budget a few years back.
    B ) The expansion did not sell well, see Rift and their last chance at retaining p2p.
    C ) The game has failed in China, this is a huge market and just life Rift this was one of the reasons it had to go f2p.
    D ) The game is already in a poistion to move to f2p, unlike a game like FFXI this game already has a well stocked cash shop.
    E ) If you look at how other titles went f2p and when this is the time / way it usually happens.

    I might be wrong, but it's kinda suspicious and there is nobody that can say taking a 2 month break NOW is anything but incredibly stupid, so there has to be a reason. 

    We will see when 3.1 launches I guess, not that long to wait and see.
    Interesting article HERE about FFXIV sub numbers, estimating between 800k and 1.2M. Let us round, and call it 1M subs. At $15 per month, that is $15M per month, not counting any revenues from the cash shop for fluff items, or the box sales of the game itself. So, with just base subs, FFXIV is pulling ~$180M per year? Even with such a high budget, high profile game that makes for a decent ROI. Once you start adding the other cash flows, it looks pretty damned popular.

    For a theme park game, I like it better than WoW these days. I may have unsubscribed, but that is more based on available time than anything else.

    To address your lettered comments, (A) is wrong, as I have already pointed out above. (B) isn't a very intelligent statement. The game sold amazingly well when it relaunched. The servers were crushed for weeks while the devs pushed to build up servers. (C) is well and good, but China is an entirely different market, typically based around charging an hourly rate than a monthly sub. A game doesn't have to succeed there to be successful. For (D), please refer to my comment above regarding a strong ROI. SE would be silly to give up a solid revenue stream. (E) is just conjecture on your part, and it really requires no comment....
  • scorpex-xscorpex-x Member RarePosts: 1,030
    edited October 2015
    Drisdane said:
    scorpex-x said:
    As I have said I have seen this exact behavior from other developers...saw it on swtor, rift, tera and many other titles.   A long lul of content while the developers are working on f2p.  This is one of the worst possible times to take a 2 month break, everyone is complaining about the massive lack of content from the expansion.

    I am almost certain that is what is going on, no company would take a 2 month break like this.  If the holiday rubbish was true they would do it ever year, it's nonsense.

    Something they aren't telling us is going to happen with 3.1, something IS going on here.  Nobody with sense buys this holiday story, no company trying to build a game into a success releases an expansion lacking in content and just takes a 2 month break.

    A ) The game has fairly low subscriber numbers, 500k is not good for a game that costs as much as this game does to run.  The only reason it's called profitable at all is because they wrote off the development budget a few years back.
    B ) The expansion did not sell well, see Rift and their last chance at retaining p2p.
    C ) The game has failed in China, this is a huge market and just life Rift this was one of the reasons it had to go f2p.
    D ) The game is already in a poistion to move to f2p, unlike a game like FFXI this game already has a well stocked cash shop.
    E ) If you look at how other titles went f2p and when this is the time / way it usually happens.

    I might be wrong, but it's kinda suspicious and there is nobody that can say taking a 2 month break NOW is anything but incredibly stupid, so there has to be a reason. 

    We will see when 3.1 launches I guess, not that long to wait and see.
    Interesting article HERE about FFXIV sub numbers, estimating between 800k and 1.2M. Let us round, and call it 1M subs. At $15 per month, that is $15M per month, not counting any revenues from the cash shop for fluff items, or the box sales of the game itself. So, with just base subs, FFXIV is pulling ~$180M per year? Even with such a high budget, high profile game that makes for a decent ROI. Once you start adding the other cash flows, it looks pretty damned popular.

    For a theme park game, I like it better than WoW these days. I may have unsubscribed, but that is more based on available time than anything else.

    To address your lettered comments, (A) is wrong, as I have already pointed out above. (B) isn't a very intelligent statement. The game sold amazingly well when it relaunched. The servers were crushed for weeks while the devs pushed to build up servers. (C) is well and good, but China is an entirely different market, typically based around charging an hourly rate than a monthly sub. A game doesn't have to succeed there to be successful. For (D), please refer to my comment above regarding a strong ROI. SE would be silly to give up a solid revenue stream. (E) is just conjecture on your part, and it really requires no comment....

    They have never given any sub numbers other than 630k shortly after launch and 500k 6 months ago (that article, like many others I've seen are just an example of how poor games journalism is because they don't understand the difference between subs and registered accounts) and when they had 630k subs there were login queues and server instability.  Since they have added no new servers since then they don't have more than 630k subs.  That's common sense, more players = more server space required. 


    Also it's a fact that no MMO outside of Wow has increased sub numbers over time and certainly not a double or quadruple of them, it does not happen outside of warcraft.   So use 500k as your subscriber base (even though I think it's a lot lower than 500k).


    When you do your math keep in mind that what a company charges times the number of customers does not equal profits.  Firstly many players pay a lot less than $15, secondly you work it out such:  subscription fee - tax on your purchase before Square get it, then you take out monthly wages, the taxes they pay, insurance, benefits, server costs, massive bandwidth costs, running costs, rent etc etc.  To say $15 x 500k = profits is silly.

    What you said is akin to a builder saying he will build you a new garage for $50k, that does not mean he is going to make $50k from building it.
  • TheocritusTheocritus Member LegendaryPosts: 10,014
    I've never seen sub number 800k - 1-2M anywhere else......The majority I have seen have it between 500-600k.....The final fantasy series fights f2p harder than just about any other title though.....Also you'd think if a company was taking extended holiday they would do it Thanksgiving into mid January.
  • etharnetharn Member UncommonPosts: 152
    edited October 2015
    Charts of f2p vs p2p is very revealing the f2p makes more money which = more content quicker. I know f2p is like a bad word around here but still times are changing and people are spending their money "wiser" with buying store stuff not a 15 dollar fee to access their servers. Is is a big pain especially with those on consoles. I know a couple people, I'm sure you do as well, paying sub with mmo and paying for xbox live.

    Biggest argument I see for f2p vs p2p is "Gotta pay the devs." Then again f2p makes hell of a lot more money then p2p IF the store is done right. Lockbox keys are what give huge income to these models. So, if you want to think p2p is the only way better relook at your math and figures and have fun living in that mindset... Time to move on. MMO genre is moving on without you.

    http://www.mmobomb.com/f2p-twice-as-big-p2p
    http://www.ign.com/blogs/-koole-/2014/04/10/p2p-subscriptions-vs-f2p-in-mmos-which-is-better



    A man who fears nothing is a man who loves nothing; and if you love nothing, what joy is there in your life?

  • DrisdaneDrisdane Member UncommonPosts: 97
    @scorpex-x Yes, I realize that there is a difference between Gross revenue and net revenue (profit). I was using rough numbers to illustrate a point. 
  • Darkfalz89Darkfalz89 Member UncommonPosts: 581
    edited October 2015
    Loke666 said:
    Phry said:
    Its not, the game is far too successful as P2P for them to even consider going F2P, and besides which, how do you equate the team needing a 2 month break to some kind of F2P thing?
    Tbh, if your not interested in playing the game unless its F2P, then FFXIV:ARR isn't the game for you.
    I dunno about "far too sucessful", the game is doing fine but it is not impossible it would do better as F2P. I do think the game is better as P2P though and I think SE think the same.

    2 months gap is nothing, Wow already had that and wont release anything more until the pre expansion patch. If it is a sign of anything it might be that they think releasing slightly fewer but somewhat larger patches are better.
    Which I absolutely agree on, Driven pointed out the terribly long content droughts that WoW has but after 8+ months of being totally drenched in content it makes me feel like I rather play for 8 months and take a break. Its like getting to watch a whole season of that awesome show vs FFXIV being that currently airing shonen that you wait for once a week to find out its another filler... From the WoW standpoint you have 4 difficulty modes and get a total of over 40+ relevant raid bosses. Once the raid season is over at least you have a solid PvP foundation if you still hunger for more battle content (FFXIV is a wash in this scenario). 

    About the 2 month gap comment, its totally nothing to have a 2 month gap when content is front heavy when comparing it to say WoW. Their 3-4 raid content drop is usually 4-6 months rather than 1-2 like the first couple however by that time you have 25+ bosses on 4 difficulty tiers to complete so consider that. In a game where your patches are numerous but smaller in battle content even the smallest gap creates an issue. When you have that kind of update schedule for going on 2 years and then this happens issues tend to arise. 2+ months into expansion launch players are bored the the usual paltry battle content we are given, especially to find out 3.0 for the most part was rushed and less than 2.0... 

    The problem with all of this wasn't necessarily about them taking the vacation, it was about how this was all handled and the fact they weren't transparent with their plan. Many players aren't even upset about the gap, they are upset that they were notified far after it was all said and done. They were kind enough to let us know they took a 2 month break AFTER they were back and also let us know "Oh btw you know those 3 month patch cycles we are known for? Well we are going to be "delayed" by 2 months". This isn't about a sign or idea that they are going to release bigger patches with even more staggered dates. The live letter itself mentioned that they are removing a endgame token dungeon out of the usual 3 to create new "test" content and see how it fares with the players.

    What I am say is there was no delay to issues/bugs/polishing code e.t.c. they literally just took a vacation, so there is very little reason to try to read between the lines to defend them. The fact you know that something is delayed 2 months and you could of been grinding newer more relevant and possibly less grindy methods to obtain better gear, but you get to grind it the slow method for two EXTRA months was just too much. 
  • nbtscannbtscan Member UncommonPosts: 862
    You must be smoking some really good shit to have come to this conclusion.
  • WarlyxWarlyx Member EpicPosts: 3,368
    edited October 2015
    Aori said:
    I'm probably one of the only people that was interested in the story. I actually really enjoyed the story mode, however once I finished it at around 2.2(I think) I took a break. I tried to get back into the game around 2.5 but it was really really hard to get back into it. I didn't know where I left off on the story and I didn't know where to go to begin the next chapter. I ended up quitting in frustration, also I lost my UI file and that really irritated me.

    I wanna give it another just for the story but I can't justify a sub and the expansion box to do it. I enjoyed it but thats really all I'm interested in from the game.
    u can re-watch all the cutscenes in your inn room :) , thats what i do if dont remember , go to inn watch  2-3 cutscenes and ohhhh !!!  ...then start with the new main story quests:chuffed:

  • YaevinduskYaevindusk Member RarePosts: 2,094
    edited October 2015
    scorpex-x said:
    As I have said I have seen this exact behavior from other developers...saw it on swtor, rift, tera and many other titles.   A long lul of content while the developers are working on f2p.  This is one of the worst possible times to take a 2 month break, everyone is complaining about the massive lack of content from the expansion.

    I am almost certain that is what is going on, no company would take a 2 month break like this.  If the holiday rubbish was true they would do it ever year, it's nonsense.

    Something they aren't telling us is going to happen with 3.1, something IS going on here.  Nobody with sense buys this holiday story, no company trying to build a game into a success releases an expansion lacking in content and just takes a 2 month break.

    A ) The game has fairly low subscriber numbers, 500k is not good for a game that costs as much as this game does to run.  The only reason it's called profitable at all is because they wrote off the development budget a few years back.
    B ) The expansion did not sell well, see Rift and their last chance at retaining p2p.
    C ) The game has failed in China, this is a huge market and just life Rift this was one of the reasons it had to go f2p.
    D ) The game is already in a poistion to move to f2p, unlike a game like FFXI this game already has a well stocked cash shop.
    E ) If you look at how other titles went f2p and when this is the time / way it usually happens.

    I might be wrong, but it's kinda suspicious and there is nobody that can say taking a 2 month break NOW is anything but incredibly stupid, so there has to be a reason. 

    We will see when 3.1 launches I guess, not that long to wait and see.

    Very competent trolling.

    But educated people know how to spot rhetoric and people making things up in their head.  Especially if they've read someone's history and how they blatantly ignore actual sources, retractions and dates of posted articles that are absolutely in conflict with their fantasies.

    Most of which resulted in the closure of said trolling threads and a mysterious long-term absence of said person who did such.
    Due to frequent travel in my youth, English isn't something I consider my primary language (and thus I obtained quirky ways of writing).  German and French were always easier for me despite my family being U.S. citizens for over a century.  Spanish I learned as a requirement in school, Japanese and Korean I acquired for my youthful desire of anime and gaming (and also work now).  I only debate in English to help me work with it (and limit things).  In addition, I'm not smart enough to remain fluent in everything and typically need exposure to get in the groove of things again if I haven't heard it in a while.  If you understand Mandarin, I know a little, but it has actually been a challenge and could use some help.

    Also, I thoroughly enjoy debates and have accounts on over a dozen sites for this.  If you wish to engage in such, please put effort in a post and provide sources -- I will then do the same with what I already wrote (if I didn't) as well as with my responses to your own.  Expanding my information on a subject makes my stance either change or strengthen the next time I speak of it or write a thesis.  Allow me to thank you sincerely for your time.
  • scorpex-xscorpex-x Member RarePosts: 1,030
    scorpex-x said:
    As I have said I have seen this exact behavior from other developers...saw it on swtor, rift, tera and many other titles.   A long lul of content while the developers are working on f2p.  This is one of the worst possible times to take a 2 month break, everyone is complaining about the massive lack of content from the expansion.

    I am almost certain that is what is going on, no company would take a 2 month break like this.  If the holiday rubbish was true they would do it ever year, it's nonsense.

    Something they aren't telling us is going to happen with 3.1, something IS going on here.  Nobody with sense buys this holiday story, no company trying to build a game into a success releases an expansion lacking in content and just takes a 2 month break.

    A ) The game has fairly low subscriber numbers, 500k is not good for a game that costs as much as this game does to run.  The only reason it's called profitable at all is because they wrote off the development budget a few years back.
    B ) The expansion did not sell well, see Rift and their last chance at retaining p2p.
    C ) The game has failed in China, this is a huge market and just life Rift this was one of the reasons it had to go f2p.
    D ) The game is already in a poistion to move to f2p, unlike a game like FFXI this game already has a well stocked cash shop.
    E ) If you look at how other titles went f2p and when this is the time / way it usually happens.

    I might be wrong, but it's kinda suspicious and there is nobody that can say taking a 2 month break NOW is anything but incredibly stupid, so there has to be a reason. 

    We will see when 3.1 launches I guess, not that long to wait and see.

    Very competent trolling.

    But educated people know how to spot rhetoric and people making things up in their head.  Especially if they've read someone's history and how they blatantly ignore actual sources, retractions and dates of posted articles that are absolutely in conflict with their fantasies.

    Most of which resulted in the closure of said trolling threads and a mysterious long-term absence of said person who did such.

    I know you think you're very smart and that if you call it trolling you can deflect but you aren't as smart as you think you are.
  • PhryPhry Member LegendaryPosts: 11,004
    I've never seen sub number 800k - 1-2M anywhere else......The majority I have seen have it between 500-600k.....The final fantasy series fights f2p harder than just about any other title though.....Also you'd think if a company was taking extended holiday they would do it Thanksgiving into mid January.
    As far as sub numbers go, i could easily believe that they are somewhere between 500k-1m but without some kind of official statement from SE, its hard to know for sure.
     As for the holiday bit, far better to have time off when its warm than during the winter when it really isn't.
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