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Nvidia announces GP100, the big Pascal

QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531
Key specs:

3584 shaders (for comparison, Fury X has 4096, Titan X has 3072)
14 MB registers (Fury X has 16 MB, Titan X has 6 MB)
4 MB L2 cache (Fury X and Titan X both have 2 MB)
10.6 TFLOPS single-precision (Fury X has 8.6 TF, Titan X has 6.6 TF)
21.2 TFLOPS half-precision (no other recent GPUs do half precision faster than single)
5.3 TFLOPS double-precision (next best:  Hawaii has 2.6 TF)
16 GB HBM2 (FirePro S9170 has 32 GB GDDR5; only HBM card available is Fury line with 4 GB)
720 GB/sec bandwidth (Fury X has 512 GB/sec, Titan X has 336 GB/sec)
1.48 GHz boost clock (highest of any GPU ever; Fury X is 1.05 GHz, Titan X is 1.075 MHz)
300 W TDP (Fury X is 275 W, Titan X is 250 W)

If we take their specs at face value, the big Pascal will be faster than any GPU currently on the market for nearly all purposes.  That shouldn't be surprising, as the top end GPUs of one generation usually are faster than the previous generation.  But they're only claiming a 25% energy efficiency gain over a Titan X, in spite of shrinking all the way from 28 nm to 16 nm.  That's rather less than I was hoping for, though in their defense, Maxwell is awfully efficient for 28 nm.

But that's if we take their specs at face value, and maybe we shouldn't.  A 600 mm^2 chip as your first chip on a new process node is something that may never been tried before.  I can't even think of any situation where someone's first chip on a new process node was even 400 mm^2.  I don't know if they make huge chips for test SRAM or not, and FPGAs are ridiculously repairable, but neither of those are at all like making a huge GPU that is a lot less tolerant of defects.

The last time we saw a huge chip of a new architecture on a new-ish process node was Fermi, with the GeForce GTX 480 being 529 mm^2.  That was a fairly new process node, but Nvidia had made several small chips on 40 nm (GeForce G 210, GT 220, and GT 240) before Fermi.  Several months before it launched, Nvidia promised Tesla cards with:

512 shaders
750 MHz
175 W

Impressive specs for its day.  By the time the chip actually launched, the specs were:

448 shaders
600 MHz
225 W

That's a change of 30% less performance for 30% more power consumption.  And the 225 W was a lie, too.  And that's why we regard the GeForce GTX 480 (GeForce version of the same card) as having been such a disaster.

The next best example that comes to mind is Tahiti, in the Radeon HD 7970.  That was AMD's first chip of a new architecture on a new process node, but it was also 378 mm^2--a whole lot less than 529, let alone 610.  And it was also the least efficient GPU ever made on 28 nm by a substantial margin.  It also helped that TSMC's 28 nm process node was a whole lot less troubled than 40 nm, 16 nm, or especially 20 nm have been.

Now, this won't be the only Pascal chip, of course, but the big one is the interesting one.  The next chip down in the lineup will likely be slower than what you could buy today.  Now we just wait for AMD to offer more details on Polaris and Vega, and to see if Nvidia can actually build anything with the promised specs or if they'll have to cut way back.
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Comments

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531
    One other comment, since I can't edit my post.  Nvidia is promising availability early next year.
  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    I have done some background research on both GPUs and CPUs and it appears that over the past 3 generations within 12 months of a new architecture having been 'created' all cards for said generation will be manufactured.

    its pretty rapid from this point forward

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

    Please do not respond to me

  • MikeBMikeB Community ManagerAdministrator RarePosts: 6,555
    Quizzical said:
    One other comment, since I can't edit my post.  Nvidia is promising availability early next year.
    Got a source link? That's unfortunate news. My rig is getting long in the tooth and I was hoping to put together something new this year.
  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531
    MikeB said:
    Quizzical said:
    One other comment, since I can't edit my post.  Nvidia is promising availability early next year.
    Got a source link? That's unfortunate news. My rig is getting long in the tooth and I was hoping to put together something new this year.
    Pick a random tech media site and they've probably got a story about it:
     
    http://anandtech.com/show/10222/nvidia-announces-tesla-p100-accelerator-pascal-power-for-hpc
    http://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-pascal-tesla-p100-gpu,31557.html
    http://techreport.com/news/29946/pascal-makes-its-debut-on-nvidia-tesla-p100-hpc-card

    The Q1 2017 date being reported may be only for Tesla cards.  Sometimes GeForce variants come sooner, but as this is a very HPC-focused card, that's not guaranteed to happen.  The two previous HPC-focused chips have been those of the GeForce GTX 480 (Tesla M2050) and GeForce GTX Titan (Tesla K20), and the Tesla cards seem to have released about the same time as the GeForce cards for the former and before the GeForce cards for the latter.

    AMD is apparently promising Polaris around the middle of this year and Vega early next year.  It's not clear whether Polaris will be an upgrade over cards you can buy today, however, except that it will have better energy efficiency.  There will surely be some lower end Pascal chips coming, too, but I haven't seen any Nvidia announcement about them.
  • MalaboogaMalabooga Member UncommonPosts: 2,977
    edited April 2016
    10.6 TFLOPS single-precision (Fury X has 8.6 TF, Titan X has 6.6 TF)
    21.2 TFLOPS half-precision (no other recent GPUs do half precision faster than single)
    5.3 TFLOPS double-precision (next best:  Hawaii has 2.6 TF)
    16 GB HBM2 (FirePro S9170 has 32 GB GDDR5; only HBM card available is Fury line with 4 GB)
    720 GB/sec bandwidth (Fury X has 512 GB/sec, Titan X has 336 GB/sec)
    1.48 GHz boost clock (highest of any GPU ever; Fury X is 1.05 GHz, Titan X is 1.075 MHz)
    300 W TDP (Fury X is 275 W, Titan X is 250 W)


    Stats are quite dissapointing. 300W TDP. Thats what happens when you add DP hardware.

    Hawaii is what, 459mm^2 28nm 2,6 TF DP at 1000 MHz. so 3,9 at 1500 like this one. Double the output by 2 for node shrink and youre looking at 7,8 TF for 459mm^2 vs 5,3 TF for 610mm^2 for Pascal.

    Also you can "preorder" 8 of these for 129 000 $. Yields on this must be abbysmal.

    They also made very "clever" PR stunt where 2xperf/W was for Kepler, not Maxwell....

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531
    Tell me if you see any risk factors here.  Nvidia is promising that GP100 is going to be:

    1)  the first discrete GPU chip on a new process node, the first time Nvidia has attempted this (rather than letting AMD go first) in over a decade,
    2)  the largest publicly known chip on the process node by about a factor of four,
    3)  the largest GPU chip (by mm^2) ever made, on any process node, ever,
    4)  the highest clocked GPU chip ever, higher than any Radeon or GeForce, in spite of Tesla cards normally being clocked much lower than consumer graphics cards, and
    5)  the highest wattage GPU chip ever.

    Nvidia had a slide promising "five miracles", and they'll probably need more than five to pull off all of that.  For all that risk, even if everything pans out the way Nvidia is hoping, it might be 50% faster than a Titan X, if that.  And if things don't work how Nvidia hopes, there's no real guarantee that it will be meaningfully faster than a Titan X at all.

    Or that it will have widespread availability a year from today.  If you promise a hard launch in a month, you've already got a ton of working chips and realistically, you know that you're going to deliver barring some very low probability events like a fab getting destroyed.  If you promise something six months out, you're hoping that the next respin goes well with no real reason to believe that it will.  I'm not sure if a major GPU chip has ever had specs publicly announced this far before availability; the only one that I can think of in the same ballpark is the GeForce GTX 480, hardly an auspicious omen.

    If you're looking for a new desktop card and waiting for Pascal, I'd stop waiting.  GP100 is not the chip you want for graphics, and there's no real guarantee that the next chip down in the line will be faster than a GTX 980 Ti or a Fury X that you could buy today.

    Waiting for Vega is a different matter.  Still plan on waiting a year, but maybe it will be a great gaming chip.  Or maybe not.  We have no clue, really, but will at least get a better idea of what AMD has up their sleeve when Polaris comes, promised for around the middle of this year.
  • MalaboogaMalabooga Member UncommonPosts: 2,977
    edited April 2016
    If they bring GP100 for consumers it wil be as bad as Fermi/Titan Z. Consumer chip will be much smaller with no DP hardware, so basically different chip, maybe "GP101". Maxwell on smaller node.

    But, NVidia still hasnt said single word on consumer chips, all they tout is "self driving cars" and now this "Q1 (maybe) 2017" Tesla that you can preorder 6-7-? months in advance....without even showing a working card.

    PS: they finally showed a working card. Wonder why they didnt do it at Huang gig.
    Post edited by Malabooga on
  • RidelynnRidelynn Member EpicPosts: 7,383
    Huang's gig is almost entirely for stock price. They are trying to prove they have a more diverse market than just Desktop GPUs.
  • MalaboogaMalabooga Member UncommonPosts: 2,977
    edited April 2016
    Well their stock price decreased today, so thats that ;P
  • MalaboogaMalabooga Member UncommonPosts: 2,977
    edited April 2016
    It was down when i looked at it, and it nicely says on your pic: Low 34,63

    So next time try not to be funny, it doesnt suit you.
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  • MalaboogaMalabooga Member UncommonPosts: 2,977
    edited April 2016
    Torval said:
    Malabooga said:
    It was down when i looked at it, and it nicely says on your pic: Low 34,63

    So next time try not to be funny, it doesnt suit you.
    I'm not being funny. Looking at a stock market snapshot at some point in the day during normal trading fluctuations and then making a call at the end of the day is misleading and just wrong. You were wrong. Next time, no one will have to be funny if you actually do some research before posting "facts".
    I was not wrong. This drop was DIRECTLY in the morning day after their big show. So if it drops tomorrow ill call you out for being wrong.
  • HrimnirHrimnir Member RarePosts: 2,415

    I'm not sure where you are getting this 2017 release date.  None of the articles mention a release date, and all the 2017 stuff is speculation.

    It would be completely unprecedented for NVidia or AMD to release info that far in advance of an actual hardware release.

    You're making quite a lot of inferences from quite a small amount of information.

    "The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."

    - Friedrich Nietzsche

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531
    Stock price changes are all about the difference between an event and what was previously expected.  If a company announced that they made $100 million in profit in a quarter, and people had generally expected them to have made $1 billion, their price will go down.  If they made the same $100 million profit in the same quarter but people had expected them to lose $1 billion, their price will go up.

    That the stock price didn't change very much really only means that the announcement wasn't massively better or worse than expected.  Had Nvidia announced that it's clearly worse than previous generation parts, or that they already have over $1 billion in pre-orders for the Tesla cards, you'd see some real stock price movement.
  • HrimnirHrimnir Member RarePosts: 2,415

    I'm not disagreeing with you on the stock situation.  I'm sure that's a significant factor.  But releasing info this early with expected release 8-16 months out would actually be bad for their long term stock prices.  It's just not wise business particularly in this field.  Intel has had that bite them in the ass in the past when they did paper launches of products and then had massive supply issues when they hard launched.

    My comment about the speculation was mostly in regards to the insinuations that they were bull faced lying to everyone about the card, and that it would be substantially changed/delayed/etc, and more importantly that they knew this upfront and were lying on purpose.

    "The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."

    - Friedrich Nietzsche

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531
    Hrimnir said:

    I'm not disagreeing with you on the stock situation.  I'm sure that's a significant factor.  But releasing info this early with expected release 8-16 months out would actually be bad for their long term stock prices.  It's just not wise business particularly in this field.  Intel has had that bite them in the ass in the past when they did paper launches of products and then had massive supply issues when they hard launched.

    My comment about the speculation was mostly in regards to the insinuations that they were bull faced lying to everyone about the card, and that it would be substantially changed/delayed/etc, and more importantly that they knew this upfront and were lying on purpose.

    I'm not claiming that they're lying on the card.  They did that in January, but probably not this week.  I am claiming that what they're trying to do is insanely hard, in the sorts of ways that tend to lead to massive delays and products far inferior to what you hoped.

    Remember the Fermi debacle where Nvidia bit off more than they could chew and it backfired disastrously?  The entire GeForce 400 series was a train wreck, and by the time they fixed it with the GeForce 500 series, AMD had had their DirectX 11 lineup out for a year.

    What Nvidia is trying with Pascal is massively more ambitious than what they tried with Fermi.  Compared to big Pascal, big Fermi was a smaller, lower power chip that got to follow both moderately large AMD chips to help TSMC work out process node issues and three other small chips from Nvidia themselves to help Nvidia understand the process node.  Pascal has none of those advantages.

    I thought Nvidia had learned their lesson.  Kepler started with a medium sized chip, and the big Kepler came nearly a year later.  Maxwell started with a small chip, before working up to medium and eventually a huge one.  Maybe Pascal will end up doing that and Nvidia just isn't talking about the smaller chips that will precede GP100 by half a year or whatever.  But if that's the case, then big Pascal is a long, long way off.
  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531

    Could be Fall ... but I'm going with this Summer.
    Don't count on anything with GDDR5X or HBM2 launching this summer.  Fall is more plausible, but they'll have to wait until they can get the new memory types in large volume.  GDDR5 cards could come sooner, and that seems to be the direction AMD is going with Polaris.  GDDR5 is not viable for next-generation, top end cards, but it will do for the middle to low end cards.
  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531

    Hrimnir said:

    I'm not sure where you are getting this 2017 release date.  None of the articles mention a release date, and all the 2017 stuff is speculation.

    It would be completely unprecedented for NVidia or AMD to release info that far in advance of an actual hardware release.

    You're making quite a lot of inferences from quite a small amount of information.

    http://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-pascal-tesla-p100-gpu,31557.html

    "The Tesla P100 is in volume production today and will ship “soon." Jen-Hsun Huang said that really means it will show up in the cloud first, and ship via OEMs in Q1 2017.

    Of course, as a consumer, you can’t have this chip yet. That’s no surprise. In the past, Nvidia also first implemented its new architectures and GPUs in scientific super computing before bringing it to the consumer market. Nvidia did not announce when we would be seeing a consumer-oriented Pascal chip."
  • olepiolepi Member EpicPosts: 3,079
    Neither AMD nor Nvidia have any real presence in the mobile graphics market, and the PC market is shrinking.

    ------------
    2025: 48 years on the Net.


  • MalaboogaMalabooga Member UncommonPosts: 2,977
    edited April 2016
    Torval said:
    Malabooga said:
    Torval said:
    Malabooga said:
    It was down when i looked at it, and it nicely says on your pic: Low 34,63

    So next time try not to be funny, it doesnt suit you.
    I'm not being funny. Looking at a stock market snapshot at some point in the day during normal trading fluctuations and then making a call at the end of the day is misleading and just wrong. You were wrong. Next time, no one will have to be funny if you actually do some research before posting "facts".
    I was not wrong. This drop was DIRECTLY in the morning day after their big show. So if it drops tomorrow ill call you out for being wrong.
    Wrong about what? I didn't make an idiotic claim? I only showed that yours was wrong. I'm making no claims about Nvidia because I'm not pretending to be a stock expert and business analyst. I'm just using the tools freely available to us all to provide accurate information. Your information was misleading.
    I suspect the highend consumer pascal cards will be out this Summer.  
    Maybe, but I think if so it will be at the very end or more likely in fall. They might have some token launch cards, but mass production for high would depend on availability of HBM2 or GDDR5X. That is a little sketchy.
    Really, so youre denyint that stock was down on nvidia and that it wasnt a FACT. Even when your OWN "evidence" contains that information? You DID make an idiotic claim.

    I will instruct you, because you seem incapable of comprehending yourself. You should have said: "it is back up now" instead trying to be funny (but lookign idiotic). As i already said funny doesnt suit you.
  • MalaboogaMalabooga Member UncommonPosts: 2,977
    edited April 2016
    Quizzical said:

    Hrimnir said:

    I'm not sure where you are getting this 2017 release date.  None of the articles mention a release date, and all the 2017 stuff is speculation.

    It would be completely unprecedented for NVidia or AMD to release info that far in advance of an actual hardware release.

    You're making quite a lot of inferences from quite a small amount of information.

    http://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-pascal-tesla-p100-gpu,31557.html

    "The Tesla P100 is in volume production today and will ship “soon." Jen-Hsun Huang said that really means it will show up in the cloud first, and ship via OEMs in Q1 2017.

    Of course, as a consumer, you can’t have this chip yet. That’s no surprise. In the past, Nvidia also first implemented its new architectures and GPUs in scientific super computing before bringing it to the consumer market. Nvidia did not announce when we would be seeing a consumer-oriented Pascal chip."
    First low volume shipments will ship in 3 months to select customers like unversities, from there it will ramp up to hit shelves in Q1 2017.

    But this is very specific chip and buying it for anything else than inteded is...

    OTOH, what if they indeed bring this chip to consumers as Titan. Fully enabled SP shaders (38xx) with DP part diabled (Nvidia has to have dedicated DP hardware on their chip which is useless for gaming). But that would kinda be a failure because they would disable 1/3 of the chip and have roughly 400mm^2 of 610mm working. Ti would have even more of the chip disabled.

    It is a theory, but how viable is completely new chip without DP part?
  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531
    Malabooga said:
    Quizzical said:

    Hrimnir said:

    I'm not sure where you are getting this 2017 release date.  None of the articles mention a release date, and all the 2017 stuff is speculation.

    It would be completely unprecedented for NVidia or AMD to release info that far in advance of an actual hardware release.

    You're making quite a lot of inferences from quite a small amount of information.

    http://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-pascal-tesla-p100-gpu,31557.html

    "The Tesla P100 is in volume production today and will ship “soon." Jen-Hsun Huang said that really means it will show up in the cloud first, and ship via OEMs in Q1 2017.

    Of course, as a consumer, you can’t have this chip yet. That’s no surprise. In the past, Nvidia also first implemented its new architectures and GPUs in scientific super computing before bringing it to the consumer market. Nvidia did not announce when we would be seeing a consumer-oriented Pascal chip."
    First low volume shipments will ship in 3 months to select customers like unversities, from there it will ramp up to hit shelves in Q1 2017.

    But this is very specific chip and buying it for anything else than inteded is...

    OTOH, what if they indeed bring this chip to consumers as Titan. Fully enabled SP shaders (38xx) with DP part diabled (Nvidia has to have dedicated DP hardware on their chip which is useless for gaming). But that would kinda be a failure because they would disable 1/3 of the chip and have roughly 400mm^2 of 610mm working. Ti would have even more of the chip disabled.

    It is a theory, but how viable is completely new chip without DP part?
    They absolutely could make a new, huge Pascal without the double precision or some other HPC stuff.  But it's expensive to do so, which is why even though there have been 5 top end AMD chips and 4 Nvidia that had some compute stuff in them, neither company has ever made an equivalent chip without the compute in it.  The chips in the Fury X, Titan X, and possibly GTX 680 (depending on whether you count that as top end when a bigger Kepler was coming later) are the only top end GPU chips in the last 7 years not to have a bunch of compute stuff in them.
  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531
    This Summer.
    Because wishful thinking trumps physics and engineering?
  • MalaboogaMalabooga Member UncommonPosts: 2,977
    edited April 2016
    Ye, just throwing thoughts out there, there is lots of guesswork going around, like "GP102" as big chip without DPs, but im not so sure about that.

    Keeping DP is very costly, you basically take chips from potentionally very low yields to put in much cheaper parts rather than 10+k$ Tesla/Quadro. If that is true next Titan may be slated for GTC next year when node matures and they have enough faulty chips from Tesla/Quadro.
  • MalaboogaMalabooga Member UncommonPosts: 2,977
    edited April 2016
    Torval said:
    Malabooga said:
    Torval said:
    Malabooga said:
    Torval said:
    Malabooga said:
    It was down when i looked at it, and it nicely says on your pic: Low 34,63

    So next time try not to be funny, it doesnt suit you.
    I'm not being funny. Looking at a stock market snapshot at some point in the day during normal trading fluctuations and then making a call at the end of the day is misleading and just wrong. You were wrong. Next time, no one will have to be funny if you actually do some research before posting "facts".
    I was not wrong. This drop was DIRECTLY in the morning day after their big show. So if it drops tomorrow ill call you out for being wrong.
    Wrong about what? I didn't make an idiotic claim? I only showed that yours was wrong. I'm making no claims about Nvidia because I'm not pretending to be a stock expert and business analyst. I'm just using the tools freely available to us all to provide accurate information. Your information was misleading.
    I suspect the highend consumer pascal cards will be out this Summer.  
    Maybe, but I think if so it will be at the very end or more likely in fall. They might have some token launch cards, but mass production for high would depend on availability of HBM2 or GDDR5X. That is a little sketchy.
    Really, so youre denyint that stock was down on nvidia and that it wasnt a FACT. Even when your OWN "evidence" contains that information? You DID make an idiotic claim.

    I will instruct you, because you seem incapable of comprehending yourself. You should have said: "it is back up now" instead trying to be funny (but lookign idiotic). As i already said funny doesnt suit you.
    Keep backpeddaling. Why didn't you point out that AMD stock is down. Here let's say something about as meaningless as your original post:

    Nvidia announces P100 and AMD stock is down. That's being kind. AMD stock has tanked. Context actually means something though which seems to have escaped you on this point.

    Here's another comment along your logic: It's wet outside. Of course it's not wet everywhere outside. It's not wet out now, but at some point it was wet outside. For any of that to be relevant to most discussions it would need to be framed in context. Get it now?
    a) Because AMD didnt have its big show these days.

    b) AMD has nothing to do with this tread, NVidias GTC or GP100

    Please, dont embarass yourself further (even if its funny as hell) Its YOU who dont have a clue of the context yet keep babbling nonsense.
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