3. The OP did a calc that came in at 3.03M. That is slightly less than half of WoW's average monthly sub number of c.3.1M in 2015.
Yes .. note that the numbers are for US only. It is also possible (in fact probably true) that WOW sub-base decline even more in 2016 compared to 2015.
Indeed. My feeling was that the 3M+ 2015 average US sub number may well be to high when set against the worldwide average WoW sub number of just over 6M. (Note: this assume a 15% fall in subs from end Q3 to end Q4 to 4.6M based on the 15% fall in revenue for WoW.)
But who knows what Superdata have included in their guess.
And I have nothing against guesses but simply hope that people remember that is what the numbers are. Numbers based on the likes of Raptor, XFire, "questionaires filled in by audience panels" and expected trends. (Nielsen tried to do for games what it still does for TV shows in the US before both EA and Activision "complained" that their guesses were widely inaccurate.)
I do game hop in addition to sticking around with games that are good enough to provide a long term experience. I don't limit my self to a certain play style.
wait ... you just give me a hard time saying "What works for you with respect to MMOs doesn't fly with everyone".
Apparently, it works for you too .. at least partially. Do I detect a hint of hypocrisy?
Yeah, you're constantly trying to convince people that all is well and "just do it this way" when the people your directing this at have explained to you many many times that that won't work for them. There's a little bit madness somewhere in there.
To be more clear about my situation, I try out and play lots of multiplayer and single player games most of which end up being uninteresting to me but when it comes to MMOs, no. I play 'em for the long haul. If they are not good enough to produce that experience then they're not worth my time.
Also, I will never settle and play a game just because of the IP. For example, love me some Star Trek, but holy fuck is STO a terrible game. Really wanted to like that game, but yeah...
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb
First of all, there is a large category of games where you buy it without a sub - this is closer to the single player game model, and is definitely different from the classic hit-me-up-for-cash-all-the-time (excuse, me - "so called free to play".)
Second, I'm not alone in refusing to touch microtransaction games. I'd rather play a quality single player game or play competitive online computer/board games (e.g. total war, civ, etc. or boardgames, which you can now do well) then be pushed into doing tedious things or being asked to shell out cash to bypass tedium. b2p is acceptable. Cash shops that matter? Not to me. I view it as a tragedy of the commons situation - the push to monetize game play drives MMOs to design decisions that you'd never choose for game play reasons. The comparison with single player games is instructive to me - there's been a huge renaissance and you don't have to deal with any of the annoying conventions that have become standard in MMOs. Of course, you're also by yourself - but that's sadly true most of the time in most MMOs now anyhow.
If anything, those statistics tell me that, despite F2P being the norm today, it still fails to even come close to the revenue of a mere handful of holdout games.
No because the subscription also applies to f2p games with optional subs.
Also, I will never settle and play a game just because of the IP. For example, love me some Star Trek, but holy fuck is STO a terrible game. Really wanted to like that game, but yeah...
You should try Rebel Galaxy .. basically a ARPG with capital space ship combat. No a long game, but good for a few hours of fun.
I think we all know deep in our hearts that the free 2 fail system is a cancer on our beloved genre. Greed is driving everything into the ground.
I still ahve a hard time understanding how free is bad? I started MMOs in 97 and paid way too much because we had no alternative......Theres probably close to a thousand MMOs out there now....Should they all be p2p?...Thats just insane....Even back in 2002 or so when there were only a handful of MMOs we didnt get to play all of them because you just couldnt afford it......You were lucky to play one or two tops and even that ended up costing quite a bit.
with a busines model where only 1 or 2 percent of the playerbase makes up for the maintenance costs, do you really wonder why F2P is inherently bad?
are you going to go with growing or the declining market?
Depends... In my line of business, I make a fortune doing what the others don't
so you make a fortune by betting on declining businesses? Sure, it works if you play the market and short-sell.
But do you want to invest your own money into a declining business?
Exactly
Most of my work left for china 20 years ago. I survived by diversifying and investing in emerging technologies, where my competition didn't. Some things are making there way back from China and I'm the only one left in town doing what I did 20 years ago. And I make a killing.
I kept part of a declining business operating by diversifying and now I'm reaping the benefits.
I think we all know deep in our hearts that the free 2 fail system is a cancer on our beloved genre. Greed is driving everything into the ground.
Who are "we"? Certainly not me.
1) I do not "love" this or other genre of games.
2) When you say "driving everything into the ground" ... I say "the market is expanding".
3) f2p is great ... there are so many games I can have fun for a while. You may not like it. But millions of players like me enjoy those games. Are you saying your preference is superior to ours?
Actually, I think he just proved his point. When you say "there are so many games I can have fun for a while" it basically means that you are the type of gamer that actually devalues MMORPGs. How can you build a community if players are jumping games every month, week or every few days? You aren't really looking to play a MMORPG and I think that is part of the problem. Maybe it's best if you stick to xbox or PS4 or something designed to capture the attention of a person who can't put more than a few days into a game.
MMORPGs should be like Scotch, they get better the more you play them... if you don't get that at a high level then MMORPGs really aren't for you. Stick to light beers.
This. But casual fanboys and more dont want to hear it.
The industry leader in data doesn't even know tf a MMO is.
Tells you how much the industry care about the label MMO.
I know right what kind of moron other than a company that just deals in estimates and total bs to get money from morons in another company who just hired some stats company to make them look better by listing heatrhstone a 1 v 1 game as a mmo?
"You CAN'T buy ships for RL money." - MaxBacon
"classification of games into MMOs is not by rational reasoning" - nariusseldon
I know right what kind of moron other than a company that just deals in estimates and total bs to get money from morons in another company who just hired some stats company to make them look better by listing heatrhstone a 1 v 1 game as a mmo?
It is more like using the stat to decide to invest in hearthstone kind of "MMO" than mmorpgs ...
wait .. didn't Blizz just scrapped titan and make hearthstone to great success?
The two most profitable mmo titles in the world last year are WoW and Lineage 1, nothing else even comes close to these 2.
Wow made $814 million Lineage 1 made $339 million
Now compare the mmo market to crappy mobile games that take a handful of people a few months to make.
Clash of clans made $1345 million (more than l1 and wow together) Puzzle and draongs made $729 million Disnety tsum tsum $329 million
There are mobile games that most of us haven't even heard of that make more money than most modern mmo titles that cost 50-100 million to make and run.
Comments
But who knows what Superdata have included in their guess.
And I have nothing against guesses but simply hope that people remember that is what the numbers are. Numbers based on the likes of Raptor, XFire, "questionaires filled in by audience panels" and expected trends. (Nielsen tried to do for games what it still does for TV shows in the US before both EA and Activision "complained" that their guesses were widely inaccurate.)
To be more clear about my situation, I try out and play lots of multiplayer and single player games most of which end up being uninteresting to me but when it comes to MMOs, no. I play 'em for the long haul. If they are not good enough to produce that experience then they're not worth my time.
Also, I will never settle and play a game just because of the IP. For example, love me some Star Trek, but holy fuck is STO a terrible game. Really wanted to like that game, but yeah...
"Mr. Rothstein, your people never will understand... the way it works out here. You're all just our guests. But you act like you're at home. Let me tell you something, partner. You ain't home. But that's where we're gonna send you if it harelips the governor." - Pat Webb
Second, I'm not alone in refusing to touch microtransaction games. I'd rather play a quality single player game or play competitive online computer/board games (e.g. total war, civ, etc. or boardgames, which you can now do well) then be pushed into doing tedious things or being asked to shell out cash to bypass tedium. b2p is acceptable. Cash shops that matter? Not to me. I view it as a tragedy of the commons situation - the push to monetize game play drives MMOs to design decisions that you'd never choose for game play reasons. The comparison with single player games is instructive to me - there's been a huge renaissance and you don't have to deal with any of the annoying conventions that have become standard in MMOs. Of course, you're also by yourself - but that's sadly true most of the time in most MMOs now anyhow.
with a busines model where only 1 or 2 percent of the playerbase makes up for the maintenance costs, do you really wonder why F2P is inherently bad?
Clearly those who play these games don't think they are bad .. otherwise why even bother?
Which apocalypse to believe.
I self identify as a monkey.
If you look at data:
f2p MMO $1794M +4%
p2p MMO $547M -13%
are you going to go with growing or the declining market?
"Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee
https://www.superdataresearch.com/about/
Good for them scamming suits with incomplete,incorrect, mislabeled data.
The industry leader in data doesn't even know tf a MMO is.
"classification of games into MMOs is not by rational reasoning" - nariusseldon
Love Minecraft. And check out my Youtube channel OhCanadaGamer
Try a MUD today at http://www.mudconnect.com/But do you want to invest your own money into a declining business?
Tells you how much the industry care about the label MMO.
Most of my work left for china 20 years ago. I survived by diversifying and investing in emerging technologies, where my competition didn't. Some things are making there way back from China and I'm the only one left in town doing what I did 20 years ago. And I make a killing.
I kept part of a declining business operating by diversifying and now I'm reaping the benefits.
"Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee
Care to invest in p2p MMOs, it is certainly declining ... many here will love you for that.
"Be water my friend" - Bruce Lee
"classification of games into MMOs is not by rational reasoning" - nariusseldon
Love Minecraft. And check out my Youtube channel OhCanadaGamer
Try a MUD today at http://www.mudconnect.com/wait .. didn't Blizz just scrapped titan and make hearthstone to great success?
Of course not. Investors have rights (for example, if CU makes a lot of money, investors get a cut). You don't.
In fact, people here will love you even more, because you are just giving out free money to buy wishing thinking.
Wow made $814 million
Lineage 1 made $339 million
Now compare the mmo market to crappy mobile games that take a handful of people a few months to make.
Clash of clans made $1345 million (more than l1 and wow together)
Puzzle and draongs made $729 million
Disnety tsum tsum $329 million
There are mobile games that most of us haven't even heard of that make more money than most modern mmo titles that cost 50-100 million to make and run.