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NVIDIA Corporation CEO Says 16-Nanometer Pascal Yields Are "Good"

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Comments

  • MalaboogaMalabooga Member UncommonPosts: 2,977
    edited May 2016
    "Of course, many of these pre-order cards might get resold on eBay for a hefty premium as many listings there have already popped up."

    People are doing heavy speculation on availability of 1080 (as everyone else is). e-bay - you can "buy" one for 1000+$
  • HrimnirHrimnir Member RarePosts: 2,415

    I'm sorry Ridelynn, but not once in the recent history of GPU's (last 10 years or so) has a high end product been released and been widely available on the day of release.  Anyone who is trying to argue that is being ridiculous.  I still maintain that by July (maybe not July 1, maybe the middle of July) that you will easily be able to get a 1080 at close to MSRP.

    Again, will eat crow if I'm wrong.

    "The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."

    - Friedrich Nietzsche

  • RidelynnRidelynn Member EpicPosts: 7,383
    Well, Hrimnir, here's the rub

    nVidia is claiming "Wide Availability" on May 27. Most of us pessimists here are saying that's just not realistic.

    Your claiming that it's reasonable by mid-July. 

    Mid-July isn't the same thing at all as late May.

    If your case is that nVidia is not "bold faced" lying (which I don't think they are, I think this is all marketing spin, which usually isn't the same thing as truth, but at least has some convoluted path back to it), but then you say basically the same thing we are all saying too - that May 27 just isn't realistic...
  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    edited May 2016
    Ridelynn said:
    Well, Hrimnir, here's the rub

    nVidia is claiming "Wide Availability" on May 27. Most of us pessimists here are saying that's just not realistic.

    Your claiming that it's reasonable by mid-July. 

    Mid-July isn't the same thing at all as late May.

    If your case is that nVidia is not "bold faced" lying (which I don't think they are, I think this is all marketing spin, which usually isn't the same thing as truth, but at least has some convoluted path back to it), but then you say basically the same thing we are all saying too - that May 27 just isn't realistic...
    I agree with him and am have already bet a cookie that they will be in most stores that would carry that by about mid June or July before he Hrimnir said that. I will find it.

    I know a store that I think is going to have them on May 27 on the shelve ready to buy and unless everyone is going out all balls to the wall to upgrade their machines for VR because its so expensive to do so I doubt they will sell out at this specific store given its so expensive to upgrade for VR.

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

    Please do not respond to me

  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    SEANMCAD said:
    Quizzical said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    Quizzical said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    ummm...yeah

    Mayb 27th, $599, Microcenter, GDDR5X
    There's a big difference between:

    a)  a sign on a shelf that says out of stock and we'll let you get on a waiting list, and
    b)  enough stock that everyone who wants one for $599 can easily find one at that price or below.

    The reason I said "mass availability" as meaning New Egg earlier was precisely because if something is out of stock, New Egg will very clearly mark it as out of stock--and they'll take the listing down out of searches if it's been out of stock entirely for two weeks.  A lot of sites will try to make it look like something is in stock to get you to order it.
    lol...

    yeah like Ninvida has no experience with this.

    How much you want to wager I will have a 1080 in my hands before the end of June?
    http://www.anandtech.com/show/5699/nvidia-geforce-gtx-680-review

    Look at the date there.  Cards didn't actually show up until May of that year.  Yep, Nvidia has experience with paper launches.  And that was in spite of AMD having widespread availability using the same memory and process in January of that year.  The GeForce GT 240 (Nvidia's first GDDR5 GPU) was about a four month delay between the first cards being available and widespread availability for anyone who foolishly wanted to buy one.
    how much do you want to wager. for giggles fake money of course. or if you like we can meet in person at a Microcenter, lets say June 15
    this is my wager. I might be wrong and it might be July but we shall see. depends on how many people want to buy expensive VR hardware

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

    Please do not respond to me

  • HrimnirHrimnir Member RarePosts: 2,415

    If I had a microcenter I'd meet you there, but then I'd be liable to buy something I don't need (currently i'm on a 980ti sitting at 1455mhz).

    I honestly don't pay attention to marketing spin BS.  If we're going to be honest about that AMD is generally much worse, or at least definitely so with Fiji.  They were claiming for weeks prior to release that they had the fastest card in the world and blah blah, and it turned out to be blatantly false, and they literally cherry picked the only 2 things they could to be able to support that statement legally and not get sued.  Let's not ignore that 80% of tests showed it being slower.

    So, again, between the two I consider it a wash, they both make ridiculous statements, etc.

    Also, I couldn't find anywhere that NVidia stated they would have wide availability, the closest I saw was that the founder's edition cards would be available for purchase on 05/27.  That is looking to be true, what that doesn't say is whether or not the retailers will inflate the price based on high demand (which they will), which again, isn't NVidia's "fault" per se.

    I think to define wide availability I believe we can all agree on that meaning you can readily purchase the card and have it shipped within a few days at msrp.  I think we can all agree that under no circumstance regardless of company or product would a high end / high desirability product not be difficult to find at release, particularly at non inflated prices.

    "The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."

    - Friedrich Nietzsche

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531
    Hrimnir said:

    If I had a microcenter I'd meet you there, but then I'd be liable to buy something I don't need (currently i'm on a 980ti sitting at 1455mhz).

    I honestly don't pay attention to marketing spin BS.  If we're going to be honest about that AMD is generally much worse, or at least definitely so with Fiji.  They were claiming for weeks prior to release that they had the fastest card in the world and blah blah, and it turned out to be blatantly false, and they literally cherry picked the only 2 things they could to be able to support that statement legally and not get sued.  Let's not ignore that 80% of tests showed it being slower.

    So, again, between the two I consider it a wash, they both make ridiculous statements, etc.

    Also, I couldn't find anywhere that NVidia stated they would have wide availability, the closest I saw was that the founder's edition cards would be available for purchase on 05/27.  That is looking to be true, what that doesn't say is whether or not the retailers will inflate the price based on high demand (which they will), which again, isn't NVidia's "fault" per se.

    I think to define wide availability I believe we can all agree on that meaning you can readily purchase the card and have it shipped within a few days at msrp.  I think we can all agree that under no circumstance regardless of company or product would a high end / high desirability product not be difficult to find at release, particularly at non inflated prices.

    I think it's pretty much indisputable that the Fury X is the fastest card available at some purposes and not others.  AMD pushed it as a card for ultra high resolutions, and there, it often was the fastest card when it launched.  At lower resolutions, it was much less common for the Fury X to beat a Titan X in games.  But a lot depends on exactly which games you consider.

    Even once you throw the GeForce GTX 1080 into the mix, the Fury X isn't often going to be the fastest card at games, but it's still the king (at least as far as single GPU cards go) if you need a ton of bandwidth--whether local memory or global memory is the issue.  Video cards are usually balanced well enough to not have a huge bandwidth bottleneck in games, but there are plenty of non-graphical compute purposes where it is a huge bottleneck.  And there, Fiji is still the way to go until GP100 or Vega show up.

    You keep asserting that top end cards never have wide availability on launch day, but that's just not true.  A few threads ago, I laid it out card by card, and over the last several years, wide availability at launch (defined as the first day that retailers are allowed to sell cards, not necessarily when the reviews go up) has happened about often as not.  It didn't happen for the Fury X or the Titan X, but it did for the GTX 780 Ti, Radeon R9 290X, and GeForce GTX 980.

    Any card could have wide availability at launch or not just depending on how soon the vendor decides to allow retailers to start selling them.  If only 1000 cards have arrived at retailers worldwide before your launch date, then they're going to be awfully scarce.  If you wait until a couple months after you started shipping cards, everyone who wants one can find one on launch day.
  • HrimnirHrimnir Member RarePosts: 2,415

    Saying the Fury X is the fastest card "at some purposes" is the same thing as me saying I'm 100% right 15% of the time.  It's a pointless statement.  They made a general statement that we have the fastest card in the world.  The general public and tech media understood that to be in the capacity that 90% of people buy these cards for, which is gaming.  If they said, we have "the fastest bitcoining mining card in the world", or the fastest "card which requires high memory bandwidth" (which is almost 0 gaming scenarios), then we would be having a different discussion, but they didn't.

    Also, to your second point, high end cards being readily available at launch is the exception, not the norm. Pretty much every x80 series NVidia card, going back to the 280 and 285 were difficult to find at release, same thing with AMD.  I paid something like 10% higher to get my Radeon 9800 pro because it was difficult to find in stock. At the time the 5800 ultra's were about impossible to even find in stock, much less at MSRP.

    Either way, as I've said, time will tell ;-).

    "The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."

    - Friedrich Nietzsche

  • HrimnirHrimnir Member RarePosts: 2,415
    BTW I do realize I said "not once in the history".  Obviously that was hyperbole, but i'll go ahead and man up and say yes, that was an exaggeration and factually incorrect.

    "The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."

    - Friedrich Nietzsche

  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    edited May 2016
    personally I think 'day of release' '2 weeks after' '4 weeks after' is all a silly debate given where the conversation started at.

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

    Please do not respond to me

  • HrimnirHrimnir Member RarePosts: 2,415
    Agreed.  My main issue from the beginning was the claims of near the end of the year at the earliest and likely start of 2017.  Which frankly were horseshit, absolute WORST case scenario situations.  Perhaps at the time my claims of July at the latest was being a bit optimistic, given the GDDR5x situation, however saying nov/dec was definitely a more ridiculous claim.

    "The surest way to corrupt a youth is to instruct him to hold in higher esteem those who think alike than those who think differently."

    - Friedrich Nietzsche

  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531
    Hrimnir said:
    Agreed.  My main issue from the beginning was the claims of near the end of the year at the earliest and likely start of 2017.  Which frankly were horseshit, absolute WORST case scenario situations.  Perhaps at the time my claims of July at the latest was being a bit optimistic, given the GDDR5x situation, however saying nov/dec was definitely a more ridiculous claim.
    The claims of late 2016 or early 2017 were for consumer versions of GP100.  Nvidia hasn't said anything to the contrary there.  Similarly, Vega probably won't launch until 2017, but that doesn't mean that Polaris isn't coming much sooner than that.
  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    Quizzical said:
    Hrimnir said:
    Agreed.  My main issue from the beginning was the claims of near the end of the year at the earliest and likely start of 2017.  Which frankly were horseshit, absolute WORST case scenario situations.  Perhaps at the time my claims of July at the latest was being a bit optimistic, given the GDDR5x situation, however saying nov/dec was definitely a more ridiculous claim.
    The claims of late 2016 or early 2017 were for consumer versions of GP100.  Nvidia hasn't said anything to the contrary there.  Similarly, Vega probably won't launch until 2017, but that doesn't mean that Polaris isn't coming much sooner than that.
    should we go back and read the posts to verify your claim of what the arguement was about?

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

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  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    Torval said:
    Hrimnir said:
    Agreed.  My main issue from the beginning was the claims of near the end of the year at the earliest and likely start of 2017.  Which frankly were horseshit, absolute WORST case scenario situations.  Perhaps at the time my claims of July at the latest was being a bit optimistic, given the GDDR5x situation, however saying nov/dec was definitely a more ridiculous claim.
    You're exaggerating. Based on early information from the chip vendor those cards wouldn't have been available in mass production until September or October at the earliest. Anything earlier than that would be a paper launch at best.

    I would still make the same call given the same information.

    It's 5/27 after the opening of business hours on the west coast. Let's look at the card availability on Newegg. Here's the url: http://www.newegg.com/Product/ProductList.aspx?Submit=ENE&IsNodeId=1&N=100007709 601201888

    Hmm, is that what horseshit looks like? Nope, that's what a PAPER LAUNCH looks like.





    I think he, like myself, am holding to our predictions as stated and for the reasons we have stated.

    we shall all find out soon enough. I know some sells out reboot very quickly so lets wait and see.

    also as a side note, I want to create a discussion about GTX1080 as it relates to VR being to expensive but I can decide on what the title should be or which category to put it in

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

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  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    Torval said:
    These cards haven't sold out. They've not been made available yet. Paper Launch.
    I dont know about those cards in your screenshot but I just read an article that said the GTX1080 was available for purchase and sold out in a few mins

    I think he, like myself, am holding to our predictions as stated and for the reasons we have stated.

    we shall all find out soon enough. I know some sells out reboot very quickly so lets wait and see.

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

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  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531
    Torval said:
    These cards haven't sold out. They've not been made available yet. Paper Launch.
    It's entirely possible that they had 5 of this card and 10 of that one for a few minutes and they're now all sold out.  New Egg usually doesn't list items that they haven't had in stock in the last two weeks or so.  That's why I cite them for availability rather than sites that will list things that they hope to get in stock sometime in the next three months.
  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    Quizzical said:
    Torval said:
    These cards haven't sold out. They've not been made available yet. Paper Launch.
    It's entirely possible that they had 5 of this card and 10 of that one for a few minutes and they're now all sold out.  New Egg usually doesn't list items that they haven't had in stock in the last two weeks or so.  That's why I cite them for availability rather than sites that will list things that they hope to get in stock sometime in the next three months.
    FYI:
    http://www.pcworld.com/article/3076095/components-graphics/nvidias-geforce-gtx-1080-launches-with-limited-stock-no-custom-cooled-variants.html

    The GTX1080 was on sale today and quickly sold out, people (unknown number) where able to place and order and cards will be shipped to them

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

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  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    SEANMCAD said:
    Quizzical said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    ummm...yeah

    Mayb 27th, $599, Microcenter, GDDR5X
    There's a big difference between:

    a)  a sign on a shelf that says out of stock and we'll let you get on a waiting list, and
    b)  enough stock that everyone who wants one for $599 can easily find one at that price or below.

    The reason I said "mass availability" as meaning New Egg earlier was precisely because if something is out of stock, New Egg will very clearly mark it as out of stock--and they'll take the listing down out of searches if it's been out of stock entirely for two weeks.  A lot of sites will try to make it look like something is in stock to get you to order it.
    lol...

    yeah like Ninvida has no experience with this.

    How much you want to wager I will have a 1080 in my hands before the end of June?
    here is the wager

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

    Please do not respond to me

  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    edited May 2016
    Torval said:
    Quizzical said:
    Torval said:
    These cards haven't sold out. They've not been made available yet. Paper Launch.
    It's entirely possible that they had 5 of this card and 10 of that one for a few minutes and they're now all sold out.  New Egg usually doesn't list items that they haven't had in stock in the last two weeks or so.  That's why I cite them for availability rather than sites that will list things that they hope to get in stock sometime in the next three months.
    Yeah, meeting the most literal technicality of the requirement. Stocking 5 of something (or any other ridiculously small number) so you can say it's in stock and released and "out of stock", much like a famous VR maker, is disingenuous at best.

    That's not really retail availability. It's marketing spin. I'll still call it a thin paper launch.

    This is what was predicted a couple of months ago that the greencoats said wouldn't happen.
    1. there are debates and bets going on over if its now, end of the june or end of next july. To be honest that level of anal fixation given where this conversation started I would think that 'technicality' as you call it is a win card.

    2. you have zero idea if its 5 or 50,000 so please stop being the only guy who is acting like you have the shipping manifest.

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

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  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531
    SEANMCAD said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    Quizzical said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    ummm...yeah

    Mayb 27th, $599, Microcenter, GDDR5X
    There's a big difference between:

    a)  a sign on a shelf that says out of stock and we'll let you get on a waiting list, and
    b)  enough stock that everyone who wants one for $599 can easily find one at that price or below.

    The reason I said "mass availability" as meaning New Egg earlier was precisely because if something is out of stock, New Egg will very clearly mark it as out of stock--and they'll take the listing down out of searches if it's been out of stock entirely for two weeks.  A lot of sites will try to make it look like something is in stock to get you to order it.
    lol...

    yeah like Ninvida has no experience with this.

    How much you want to wager I will have a 1080 in my hands before the end of June?
    here is the wager
    I'm not claiming that you personally won't get one.  If you check obsessively and are willing to pay far above MSRP, then maybe you can get one yourself by the end of June.  They'll slowly trickle out for a while until the large volume production orders have had time to show up at retail.  My claim is only that they won't be widely available, to the extent that anyone who wants one can readily find one at or below MSRP.
  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    edited May 2016
    Quizzical said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    Quizzical said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    ummm...yeah

    Mayb 27th, $599, Microcenter, GDDR5X
    There's a big difference between:

    a)  a sign on a shelf that says out of stock and we'll let you get on a waiting list, and
    b)  enough stock that everyone who wants one for $599 can easily find one at that price or below.

    The reason I said "mass availability" as meaning New Egg earlier was precisely because if something is out of stock, New Egg will very clearly mark it as out of stock--and they'll take the listing down out of searches if it's been out of stock entirely for two weeks.  A lot of sites will try to make it look like something is in stock to get you to order it.
    lol...

    yeah like Ninvida has no experience with this.

    How much you want to wager I will have a 1080 in my hands before the end of June?
    here is the wager
    I'm not claiming that you personally won't get one.  If you check obsessively and are willing to pay far above MSRP, then maybe you can get one yourself by the end of June.  They'll slowly trickle out for a while until the large volume production orders have had time to show up at retail.  My claim is only that they won't be widely available, to the extent that anyone who wants one can readily find one at or below MSRP.
    I think I will be able to get one fairly easy by the end of June and I think what you are describing will happen by the end of July.

    Just an observation, some of us (such as myself) have been only been PC gaming for decades (speaking for myself about 36 years with some years not gaming but for the most part at least every week and ONLY PC games, so we have seen many iterations of video card deployments over the years.

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

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  • RidelynnRidelynn Member EpicPosts: 7,383
    No one cares if you get one Seanmcad. 

    nVidia said May 27. nVidia. Available. Both Founders and 3rd party cards. Available.

    It appears to not really be the case. That being said, it's still early, I'm willing to see what shakes out over the weekend and through next week. Maybe, just maybe, nVidia had millions of these and the pent up demand just overwhelmed all the retail channels.

    But the lack of any 3rd party cards makes me doubt that very seriously, when nVidia claimed they would be available as well. 3rd party vendors just didn't have enough time to get anything developed and packaged for a retail launch. Apparently neither did nVidia.

    No one cares what you said Seanmcad, we care what nVidia said.
  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    edited May 2016
    Ridelynn said:
    No one cares if you get one Seanmcad. 

    nVidia said May 27. nVidia. Available. Both Founders and 3rd party cards. Available.

    It appears to not really be the case. That being said, it's still early, I'm willing to see what shakes out over the weekend and through next week. Maybe, just maybe, nVidia had millions of these and the pent up demand just overwhelmed all the retail channels.

    But the lack of any 3rd party cards makes me doubt that very seriously, when nVidia claimed they would be available as well. 3rd party vendors just didn't have enough time to get anything developed and packaged for a retail launch. Apparently neither did nVidia.

    No one cares what you said Seanmcad, we care what nVidia said.
    I bet I can get the card mid June and it will be widely avaible mid July.
    I dont give a horses dick what Nvidia has to say on the matter and it has nothing to do with my prediction at all whatsoever. you can either state your view on my prediction or not.

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  • QuizzicalQuizzical Member LegendaryPosts: 25,531
    SEANMCAD said:
    Quizzical said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    Quizzical said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    ummm...yeah

    Mayb 27th, $599, Microcenter, GDDR5X
    There's a big difference between:

    a)  a sign on a shelf that says out of stock and we'll let you get on a waiting list, and
    b)  enough stock that everyone who wants one for $599 can easily find one at that price or below.

    The reason I said "mass availability" as meaning New Egg earlier was precisely because if something is out of stock, New Egg will very clearly mark it as out of stock--and they'll take the listing down out of searches if it's been out of stock entirely for two weeks.  A lot of sites will try to make it look like something is in stock to get you to order it.
    lol...

    yeah like Ninvida has no experience with this.

    How much you want to wager I will have a 1080 in my hands before the end of June?
    here is the wager
    I'm not claiming that you personally won't get one.  If you check obsessively and are willing to pay far above MSRP, then maybe you can get one yourself by the end of June.  They'll slowly trickle out for a while until the large volume production orders have had time to show up at retail.  My claim is only that they won't be widely available, to the extent that anyone who wants one can readily find one at or below MSRP.
    I think I will be able to get one fairly easy by the end of June and I think what you are describing will happen by the end of July.

    Just an observation, some of us (such as myself) have been only been PC gaming for decades (speaking for myself about 36 years with some years not gaming but for the most part at least every week and ONLY PC games, so we have seen many iterations of video card deployments over the years.
    Playing games a lot doesn't have very much to do with understanding how the hardware works.

    Let's take GDDR5 for a comparison.

    Sampling on November 1, 2007:

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/11/01/qimonda_samples_gddr5

    Volume production, not merely started, but announced as available to buy on May 10, 2008:

    http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/graphics/display/20080510113121_GDDR5_in_Production_New_Round_of_Graphics_Cards_War_Imminent.html

    First GPU with GDDR5 launched on June 25, 2008:

    http://www.anandtech.com/show/2556

    Off hand, I'm not sure if that was a hard launch or not.  Regardless, that's 8 months from sampling to GPU launch.  It's a month and a half from not the start of volume production, but parts produced actually available to buy.  And even then I'm not sure if it was a hard launch.

    With GDDR5X, the start of sampling was March 23, 2016, or about two months ago.  The start of volume production was about two weeks ago--and the start of production isn't the same as large numbers of chips coming out of the fabs available to buy.  Even today, Micron has 6 GDDR5 parts (different capacities, clock speeds, and voltages) that they list as "production", but no GDDR5X:

    https://www.micron.com/products/dram/gddr/gddr5-part-catalog#/

    That's not the stuff hard launches are made of.  Yes, they'll be widely available eventually.  But not yet.
  • SEANMCADSEANMCAD Member EpicPosts: 16,775
    edited May 2016
    Quizzical said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    Quizzical said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    Quizzical said:
    SEANMCAD said:
    ummm...yeah

    Mayb 27th, $599, Microcenter, GDDR5X
    There's a big difference between:

    a)  a sign on a shelf that says out of stock and we'll let you get on a waiting list, and
    b)  enough stock that everyone who wants one for $599 can easily find one at that price or below.

    The reason I said "mass availability" as meaning New Egg earlier was precisely because if something is out of stock, New Egg will very clearly mark it as out of stock--and they'll take the listing down out of searches if it's been out of stock entirely for two weeks.  A lot of sites will try to make it look like something is in stock to get you to order it.
    lol...

    yeah like Ninvida has no experience with this.

    How much you want to wager I will have a 1080 in my hands before the end of June?
    here is the wager
    I'm not claiming that you personally won't get one.  If you check obsessively and are willing to pay far above MSRP, then maybe you can get one yourself by the end of June.  They'll slowly trickle out for a while until the large volume production orders have had time to show up at retail.  My claim is only that they won't be widely available, to the extent that anyone who wants one can readily find one at or below MSRP.
    I think I will be able to get one fairly easy by the end of June and I think what you are describing will happen by the end of July.

    Just an observation, some of us (such as myself) have been only been PC gaming for decades (speaking for myself about 36 years with some years not gaming but for the most part at least every week and ONLY PC games, so we have seen many iterations of video card deployments over the years.
    Playing games a lot doesn't have very much to do with understanding how the hardware works.

    Let's take GDDR5 for a comparison.

    Sampling on November 1, 2007:

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/11/01/qimonda_samples_gddr5

    Volume production, not merely started, but announced as available to buy on May 10, 2008:

    http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/graphics/display/20080510113121_GDDR5_in_Production_New_Round_of_Graphics_Cards_War_Imminent.html

    First GPU with GDDR5 launched on June 25, 2008:

    http://www.anandtech.com/show/2556

    Off hand, I'm not sure if that was a hard launch or not.  Regardless, that's 8 months from sampling to GPU launch.  It's a month and a half from not the start of volume production, but parts produced actually available to buy.  And even then I'm not sure if it was a hard launch.

    With GDDR5X, the start of sampling was March 23, 2016, or about two months ago.  The start of volume production was about two weeks ago--and the start of production isn't the same as large numbers of chips coming out of the fabs available to buy.  Even today, Micron has 6 GDDR5 parts (different capacities, clock speeds, and voltages) that they list as "production", but no GDDR5X:

    https://www.micron.com/products/dram/gddr/gddr5-part-catalog#/

    That's not the stuff hard launches are made of.  Yes, they'll be widely available eventually.  But not yet.
    again...

    I think I will be able to get one fairly easy by the end of June and I think what you are describing will happen by the end of July.

    reply or not reply. I am not trying to be difficult I am just saying I have made a prediction and I am sticking to it. I am not sure I understand if you are agreeing with me, explictly disagreeing with me. or trying to change it or what. its my prediction. dont like it? fine reply or dont reply doesnt matter its still my prediction

    Please do not respond to me, even if I ask you a question, its rhetorical.

    Please do not respond to me

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